The Daily Spin – Mexico Open

The Daily Spin – Mexico Open

RECAP

It was not a special week for me with the tour going back to Torrey Pines. Usually I have strong performances there as I know the course well and understand very well the style of play required to have success. I may need to adjust my strategy for Signature events with a cut. Considering how catastrophic a missed cut can be for your chances to make any money in double up contests, I might be playing these contests too aggressively. I opted to get a little silly last week in dropping all the way down to Gary Woodland to fill out my roster. He has played well in 2025 and seems to have some of the issues under control with his brain that have plagued him in recent years. Historically, he has enjoyed some success at Torrey Pines and given his form, I thought I could sneak him through to the weekend. Nope. Not even close. It was foolish as I had targeted Akshay at 7100, but decided that the few extra dollars would be worth it. Clear mistake.

The other golfer that smoked me was Sepp Straka. Over the years, he has been a streaky player. During some stretches, he looks like he is moving towards an elite level of play and then he has a couple of months where he is not competitive. He looked so good through five events in 2025 that I let myself start to believe that the streak might be more than just a passing moment, but got slapped in the face paying for a golfer that I am normally hesitant to touch in cash games. I should have just stuck with Keegan Bradley at 7700, taken the easy made cut and moved on. Poor decision.

At the top, I had the same decision as most other cash game owners for the week between Scottie and Rory. My analysis had them grading out nearly the same. What tipped it in Rory’s favor was the 1500 in savings which when all other factors are about even, made him a compelling option. Naturally, Scottie pulled away on Sunday while Rory could not make a putt to save his life. Isn’t that how these things always tend to play out? Maybe it is time to embrace Jeff’s strategy of always playing Scottie now that it feels like he is going to be the dominant golfer on tour during this era. Every time I feel like I can trust Rory he slides back into his old habits.

Main Team – 267 DK Points

• Rory McIlroy – T17 – 67
• Taylor Pendrith – T50 – 56
• Sepp Straka – MC – 14
• Thomas Detry – 53 – 47
• Adam Scott – T37 – 64
• Gary Woodland – MC – 19

Dogshit week all around. All the more discouraging as Ludvig was a core play for me a few weeks ago at the Farmers, but then fell ill and fell way back in the standings, struggled the following week and was sick for a couple of weeks. He played great, especially on the back nine on Sunday so it was a well earned win, but frustrating to watch as I likely would have used him had I been more comfortable about his health.

Course

• Vidanta Vallarta
• 7,456 yards
• Par 71
• Paspalum Greens

This is a Greg Norman designed resort course near Puerto Vallarta about a mile from the Pacific Ocean. I wonder how much longer the PGA Tour will still play at a Greg Norman course after everything that has gone down over the last year. Though it is not right on the ocean, there is still a great deal of water in play as the Ameca River runs next to a couple of holes and there are several lakes around the course. There could be as many as thirteen holes where water comes into play. It seems unlikely that the water will be a big issue with the winds not expected to be a factor and the fairways themselves are fairly wide. Though it is a resort course, it does play to the long side with two of the Par 5 holes over 600 yards and four Par 4 holes that are in excess of 500 yards. I think that bombers are going to have the advantage this week as well as those golfers that are strong from 175 yards and beyond on approach shots.

The greens are Paspalum grass this week which we do not see often on tour. Mayakoba has Paspalum greens as does Coco Beach and Corales. Kuala Lumpur also had Paspalum grass through 2017 so there are a few courses to look at for help this week. There are several names in this field that have nice course histories across some of those courses so be sure to make use of that information this week in a field where we will need every edge imaginable to have success. Without heavy winds, I expect there to be plenty of scoring this week. The rough is going to be on the short side so as long as golfers do not get really wild off the tee or on the approach, this should be a spot where there are plenty of birdies to be made.

Course Comps

• Mayakoba
• El Cardonal
• Grand Reserve
• Corales
• Kapalua
• Sea Island
• Albany

Field

We are back to fall level fields this week. It makes sense as the top players will not want to make the trip and will likely take this week and next off before playing in back to back events starting with the Arnold Palmer leading into the Players Championship the following week. After a handful of bigger events, it is a good place for a break, but the fans are the ones that suffer this week as the field is pretty ragged from top to bottom. Nobody near the Top-10 in the world is here and nobody from the Top-25 either. Only four golfers in the Top-50 made the trip and only 26 of the Top-100. The Tour may want to revisit the way this is set up so to keep interest in some of these types of events. It is a really odd time of year to play this event and if the PGA is smart, they would do themselves a favor and move this tournament to the fall a week before or after Mayakoba and create a Mexican swing played over two weeks. If this event were late in the fall, it would attract a much better field as a few of the stars could at least elect to turn the trip into a vacation. It could be similar to the Hawaiian swing where there are two events in a row there in January.

Weather

• Forecast for Puerto Vallarta – Wind, waves & weather Superforecast Licenciado Gustavo Díaz Ordaz International Airport – Windfinder

There should not be any weather issues this week. Winds appear to be calm. No rain in the forecast. Temperatures in the 70s in the morning and climbing to 90 around the middle of the afternoon. No apparent weather edge for either wave this week.

Local Connections

• Kristofer Ventura
• Alvaro Ortiz
• Jose Antonio Safa
• Santiago De la Fuente
• Gerardo Gomez
• Jose Cristobal Islas

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained Tee To Green: 25%
• Strokes Gained Putting: 25%
• Birdie or Better Percentage: 20%
• Par 5 Scoring:10%
• Scrambling: 10%
• Proximity: 10%

 

Cash Game Plays

Top Tier

Akshay Bhatia – I am not going to tell you that you should always pay up in these weaker field events, but I do not see any other choice for cash games this week. Akshay is the class of the field and with Kurt Kityama being out of form below him and Rasmus playing poorly last week, it does not make a lot of sense to pivot here. Save that move for single entry GPP contests. Bhatia has been known to us for years as a golfer that has played really well in tropical settings. He finished 4th here two years ago, he’s had success in Hawaii, the Hero World Challenge, Puerto Rico, Puntacana, Bermuda and the Bahamas on the KFT where he won and had a couple of other Top-10 finishes. He’s played well this year and finally cracked the Top-10 last week with a 9th place finish at Torrey Pines.

Sam Stevens – This is not my favorite price for Stevens given how cheap he has been everywhere else, but with such a soft field, there are a lot of golfers normally in the $7-8k range that got a big boost this week if they were in form. Stevens is in amazing form, especially considering how little attention he’s received at DK in terms of his salary. He has missed just two cuts in his last 28 starts going back to The Players Championship last March. He gets good distance off the tee and he has been putting really well in 2025, key elements for these resort style courses where there is little trouble off the tee so gaining whatever ground you can is beneficial.

Patrick Rodgers – It’s a trap! That is always my first instinct whenever Patrick Rodgers is popping in my model. I just do not think I can ignore him here. He has three Top-10 finishes in three start at this tournament and he is coming off of his best performance in 2025 after a T3 finish last weekend at Torrey Pines and a 22nd place finish at Pebble Beach two weeks before that. He ranks third overall in my comp course model, gaining over 1.3 strokes per round in 31 career starts.

Taylor Moore – Moore has made four straight cuts with three Top-25s during this recent stretch. Over the last 16 rounds among the field, he ranks 2nd in SGTG and 14th in SGTOT. His comp course numbers look great and outside of the tougher courses on tour last year, Moore was one of the most dependable players to make the cut at any other course.

 

Middle Tier

Alex Smalley – Smalley has some risk vs reward to his play this week. In 2022, he was excellent here and finished 6th. The last two seasons, he has missed the cut. 2024 was not a real pretty season for Smalley as he missed the cut in nine of his first eleven starts, before finally finding his game in the fall. So far in 2025, he has been playing well with three Top-25 finishes in his first four starts. He ranks 7th in SGTG and 6th in SGTOT over the last sixteen rounds among the field and he has had a good amount of success on comparable courses during his career.

Jake Knapp – Knapp is the defending champion of this tournament. While that alone is not enough to make him a core play, he’s been steadily improving this year, making the cut in his last four starts including a 17th place finish last weekend at Torrey Pines. He is starting to hit the ball better in recent weeks and ranks 11th among the field in SGTOT over the last sixteen rounds carried by steady iron play and a hot putter.

CT Pan – Pan actually ranked first in my comp course model this week…ouch. I really do not know what to make of that, but the middle $8k range is a little bereft of talent so we need to find something that stands out. What I am encouraged about is that Pan closed 2024 strong with back to back Top-25 finishes and then followed it up with a Top-25 at the Sony Open this year and then also made the cut in Phoenix. He ranks 3rd in SGTG and 1st in SGTOT over the last sixteen rounds and he has made the cut in both starts here, including a 3rd place finish last year.

Greyson Sigg – Sigg is probably my favorite value play this week and was easiest for me to pair in a lineup with Akshay. He has made the cut here in all three career starts including back to back Top-25s the last two years. He closed out the fall season well with four Top-25 finishes in his last six starts and is 3/4 making the cut in 2025, including a 9th place finish at Torrey Pines a few weeks back. He ranks 5th on my comp course model this week, gaining over 1.1 stroke per round in sixteen career starts.

 

Lower Tier

Andrew Putnam – The $7k golfers are a mixed bunch this week. We do not have the depth here like other weeks since most of the players that would normally be options here were pushed up into the $8k or $9k range for this tournament. That leaves us with guys like Andrew Putnam who can usually plod through and make a cut, but tend to be limited in upside performance. One thing that did stand out for Putnam is that he ranks second in SGAPP over the last sixteen rounds among this field. He also finished 24th here two years ago. His comp course numbers are not elite, but solid and over a good number of career starts. This feels like a 30th place finish which would be perfectly fine for cash games.

Ryan Gerard – Gerard finished 33rd here two years ago and is 3/3 this season making the cut including a 15th place finish at Torrey Pines a few weeks ago. He also finished 11th at the WWT Championship in Mexico last fall. He is coming off of a very strong season on the KFT which saw him get a win and go 20/26 making the cut for the year.

Erik Van Rooyen – I do not love the start for EVR in 2025, but he played well in 2024 after getting a win in the fall of 2023 (in Mexico as well) so I have not completely given up on his game yet. He has made the cut in both starts at this event and finished 8th here last year. He’s a banger off the tee and he can putt. As seen with a handful of other players here, that has been a blueprint for success.

Sam Ryder – Are we catching Ryder in form or trying to catch a falling knife? Ryder is another streaky golfer that gets on track for a month or two and then loses every bit of his form and we go back to ignoring him for the rest of the season. So far in 2025, he is 4/4 making the cut with two Top-25 finishes. What I like with Ryder in 2025 is that his irons have been outstanding this year and he is currently 16th on tour in SGAPP. His short game is looking good as well so this should not be a spot that trips him up just yet.

Matteo Manassero – Manassero is cheap this week and likely very low owned. We do not see him much on the PGA Tour, but he has played quite a bit on the DPWT through the fall so do not let the lack of activity in 2025 deter you. In two starts on the PGA Tour this winter, he has made the cut twice and finished in the Top-25 in his last start at Torrey Pines in January. This follows a handful of Top-10 finishes overseas during the fall.

 

GPP Player Pool

Core

Akshay Bhatia	10700
Sam Stevens	9800
Patrick Rodgers	9500
Taylor Moore	9000
Alex Smalley	8700
Jake Knapp	8600
Cheng Tsung Pan	8300
Nicolai Hojgaard	8100
Greyson Sigg	8000
Erik van Rooyen	7500

 

Secondary

Rasmus Hojgaard	10100
Harry Hall	9300
Andrew Putnam	7800
Carson Young	7700
Ryan Gerard	7600
Sam Ryder	7400
Kevin Roy	7400
Kristoffer Ventura	7300
Matteo Manassero	7100
Vincent Norrman	7000
Hayden Springer	6800

 

Tertiary

Benjamin Silverman	7400
Aldrich Potgieter	7300
Antoine Rozner	7300
Lanto Griffin	7300
Ricky Castillo	7200
Rico Hoey	7200