The Daily Spin – John Deere Classic

The Daily Spin – John Deere Classic

RECAP

Great week for my picks overall with my top two betting picks dueling to the finish before both folding and allowing another core play (but not outright bet…ugh) to slither into a big win. Cam Davis is someone that I have largely avoided this season, but in talking to Jeff last week prior to the podcast, I took a second look and realized that this is a pattern for him. He does not play his best golf at the tougher courses, but has crushed the events later in the season and into the fall to elevate him each season. Sure enough, the tour gets to Detroit, a very driver friendly type of course with plenty of scoring opportunities, and he is at the top of his game. He helped to propel my main lineup to a nice finish, easily cashing despite only getting four of six through the cut. As I wrote of Davis, Even with as lousy as he has played at times, he has still missed just four cuts this season and three were at challenging courses so this feels like a decent floor play for cash games with some upside potential if he can channel his strengths to the course again.

Two of my other golfers that made the cut for my team played really well. Davis Thompson and Akshay Bhatia both continue to ascend towards becoming star players on tour, though it was heartbreaking to see Akshay blow it on the final hole after a terrible birdie putt that he left about 4-5 feet short of the cup and then proceeded to bogey the last hole, allowing Cam Davis to win without having to go to a playoff. Bhatia had escaped the 16th hole after a similarly poor birdie putt that forced him to make a five foot par putt. Thompson had his chances as well on Sunday. His tee to green game was excellent all weekend, but he needed just a little more on the greens on Sunday to get him over the top. Still, everything is moving in the right direction for Thompson right now and if he continues to play in these lesser field events, he is going to get that first win before the end of the year.

Taylor Pendrith was the other golfer on my team that made the cut, but then drifted into the twilight zone over the weekend. As one golfer after another posted a low score on Saturday, Pendrith shot a 74 and then a 72 on Sunday, falling to the bottom of the leaderboard and picking up very few extra fantasy points for my team. He was terrible from tee to green on Saturday and then awful with his putter on Sunday so there was no single area where he struggled. It was uncharacteristic for Pendrith after a solid run of quality finishes over the last few months.

There were a couple of landmines that hurt me that kept my team from winning any of my leagues or bigger contests last week in the value range. Everything lined up for Matt Wallace in my research last week. His salary was low relative to his odds, his form was reasonable and he had played well in Detroit in recent years with a couple of Top-15 finishes. He even started off well on Thursday in shooting a 69. On Friday, he was two under through the first seven holes and cruising towards making the cut and maybe even working his way into contention, but a double bogey on the 8th hole sent him into a tailspin and he finished the round with a 75 and was not even close to making the cut. In an event where you need to keep making birdies, one terrible hole might be all it takes to throw away your entire tournament and I think that is what happened with Wallace as he was not able to regain his focus.

Svensson was a different story than Wallace. He also entered the week playing decent, cut making golf. He has been nowhere near winning anything this year, but he had not missed a cut since the Florida swing and had been okay in Detroit. He was poor in all areas outside of off the tee. There was never a moment where it even looked like he might make a run to get through to the weekend so I never held out much hope. He shot a 72 in the first round and I hoped that maybe he could get off to a fast start on Friday, but he was quickly two over par and at that point, I unstarred him in the app and closed it out for the day. I was a little nervous about the weekend with a 4/6 team as I have been on the wrong side of the cash line in that situation far too often this season, but getting a win and two second place finishes made it a low stress weekend.

Course

• TPC Deere Run
• 7258 yards
• Par 71
• Bentgrass Greens

TPC Deere Run is probably the easiest course on tour all season. The Par 71 course plays out at around 7,250 yards on bentgrass greens. The fairways are not normally too challenging to hit, but wild players can get into trouble as there are trees around them so the bombers can get into trouble, but it’s not easy to do. The winning score will probably be lower than -20 so making birdies is going to be very important this week. There are several short Par 4 holes below 400 yards and only a handful above 450 so the wedge and mid range iron specialists are going to be the ones to focus on this week. The three Par 5 holes are all on the easier side and not so long as to put them out of scoring range for most players. Bombers will have no extra advantage here and a quick scan of leaderboards tends to reveal that players who are accurate off the tee, have a solid approach game and can putt well enough to keep up with all of the scoring of others are the players who will have success. Hitting greens in regulation has been a huge factor for players that have been able to have success here throughout their careers. The common thread among most of those names is that during their years of great play at TPC Deere Run, those players tended to be among the best in GIR percentage. If you are looking to throw a few dart this week among those players who are teeing it up here for the first time, be sure to isolate GIR% in the model and take a look at the names that pop near the top.

Course Comps

• TPC Summerlin
• TPC Twin Cities
• Detroit
• Keene Trace
• Summit Golf Club
• TPC Craig Ranch

Field

This is always going to be one of the weaker fields of the year and it got a little weaker this morning after Patrick Cantlay and Cam Davis withdrew from the field. That leaves Jordan Spieth at the top who seems wildly mispriced considering his poor recent form in recent months and uncharacteristically poor short game play. Beyond that, it is not a terrible field, all things considered. There are a handful of really promising young stars in the field that I think are going to do big things on tour in the seasons ahead, but before they are well known, we get to see them tee it up in some of these smaller events. Names like Luke Clanton and Neil Shipley should be fun to watch after impressive performances in limited play this year. Sepp Straka, the defending champ, is the only golfer in the Top-25 OWGR in the field this week. There are only seven golfers in the Top-50 and 32 in the Top-100 in the field so there are going to be some opportunities to bet on some longshots this week that have a much better chance than normal of coming away with a win. Most of the better golfers on tour are taking this week to rest before heading overseas next week to prepare for The Open Championship in a couple of weeks. One other note, with the withdrawal of Cantlay, Spieth is the top priced golfer at $10,500 and the lowest golfers are at $6k which makes for a much flatter structure this week. You will have a lot of flexibility with your player pool so make sure that in designing your core, you are overweight the field on your favorites up top as I expect many of those golfers to be owned at 20% or above even in a full field tournament.

Weather

• Wind & weather Superforecast Colona – Windfinder

Thursday looks very quiet in the forecast with winds at 7-9 mph for the entire round. Right now, I do not see any rain expected in the first round. On Friday, I have yet to see the hourly numbers, but the winds look to be gustier than Thursday, hitting over 20 mph in the early morning and then again in the afternoon. Temperatures look moderate all weekend with highs in the low to mid 70s in the opening two rounds. I will have more to offer on a potential wave advantage as I get a better look at the data on Wednesday.

Local Connections

• Zach Johnson

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained Putting: 30%
• Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 20%
• Birdie or Better Percentage: 20%
• Proximity: 10%
• Scrambling: 10%
• Strokes Gained Off the Tee: 5%
• Driving Accuracy: 5%

 

Cash Game Plays

Top Tier

Sungjae Im – Sungjae has endured an uneven season in 2024. However, if you cut out the tougher courses on his schedule it has not been so bad and for what it is worth, he has definitely broken out of his slump over the last couple of months with five Top-12 finishes in his last seven starts. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks 6th in SGTG and 3rd in SGTOT. He has really turned around his short game in recent starts as his putter was terrible over the first few months of the year, but is now back to being a strength again. As far as comp course play, he ranks only behind Jordan Spieth, gaining over 1.7 strokes per round in fourteen career starts. He has not done much at Deere Run during his career, but did make the cut in two starts.

Aaron Rai – The two gloved wonder had plenty of chances to win the tournament last weekend, but settled for a second place finish after missing out on several opportunities late in the round on Sunday afternoon. Still, he is playing fantastic golf and leads the field in SGTG and SGTOT over the last 24 rounds. He has been dominant in all areas outside of his putter and he has played particularly well on the easier courses over the last couple of months. He’s made seven straight cuts with five of those finishes resulting in a Top-25 finish. He has not played here before, but in nine career starts on comp courses, he’s gained over 1.4 strokes per round.

Davis Thompson – I feel like Davis is going to get a win sometime before the end of the year and it seems likely that it will come at one of these easier courses where the field is soft and Davis is one of the few standout golfers in the field. He charts out about as well as Aaron Rai, dominating in all categories outside of his putter, though even on the greens, he is not a total disaster. He ranks 2nd in SGTG and 2nd in SGTOT over the last 24 rounds. He finished 22nd here last year in his first start at Deere Run and he’s gained just under .9 strokes per round in ten starts on comp courses.

 

Middle Tier

Luke Clanton – I joked last week when Clanton and Berger were both priced at $7k that Berger seemed like a bargain in comparison to the kid we had only seen once at the US Open where he played well in coming up just short for best amateur, losing out to Neal Shipley who he happened to be paired with in the final round. It turns out, this 20 year-old kid from Florida State might be pretty good. He finished 10th last week in Detroit and was in contention going into the final round before slipping back slightly in shooting a 72. If he can handle Pinehurst and then play well at Detroit, there is not reason to believe that Deere Run will slow him down. His ball striking is solid and he is putting it well. Shipley is probably a better value at $7500, but I do not mind taking a chance on a younger player in a weaker field like this.

Mark Hubbard – Good Guy Mark Hubbard has been a far different player than last season. He played prolifically last season with 39 starts and while he ended up with twelve Top-25 finishes and six Top-10s, he also missed the cut seventeen times making him one of the more difficult golfers to handicap. When you got him right, he had the potential to pay off big, but he also ruined a lot of good lineups with his erratic performances. This season, Hubbs is 18/18 making the cut so for cash games, he is usually the guy you can count on in the $7k range to help fill out your roster. He has only four Top-25 finishes and two Top-10s (one of which was the team event) so the fantasy points are not great on the GPP side, but when sorting through fields like this for cash games, getting to the weekend is usually all owners are looking for him to do. As a bonus, he has back to back Top-15 finishes at Deere Run the last two years.

Seamus Power – Famous Seamus has been a mixed bag in recent months. He has five Top-27 finishes over his last nine starts, but has also missed the cut the other four starts in that timeframe. Deere Run has been one of his favorite stops on tour during his career. He’s made the cut in all five starts with four Top-25 finishes, the most recent two turning into Top-10s. He’s gained .928 strokes per round in 21 career starts on comp courses. Shorter courses with generous scoring opportunities is generally where he plays his best golf in looking back at where he has enjoyed the most success throughout his career.

 

Lower Tier

Neal Shipley – We have seen Shipley three times this season and I have been impressed with him each time out. He was the top amateur at Augusta and then the top amateur at Pinehurst before making his professional debut last week in Detroit where he finished 20th. Clanton finished 10th and is now $1100 more than Shipley. That seems like too big of a difference when looking at these two players. Outside of one really poor putting round last week in Detroit, his all around game looks like it will translate well for the PGA Tour.

Andrew Novak – Novak missed the cut in his first three starts this year, but since then is 11/13 and has seven Top-25 finishes. He ranks 23rd in SGTG and 19th in SGTOT over the last 24 rounds among this field and has a balanced game where no one area drives his entire performance. He is 2/2 making the cut here finishing 30th two years ago and 42nd last year.

Joel Dahman – The Full Swing hero seems to be hitting his stride after a long year of struggles where he failed to maintain any level of consistent play, leading to some serious mental struggles that were famously documented on the Netflix series this past season. It has not been an easy season, but he has now made the cut in seven straight starts and finally had a couple of nice finishes in recent starts with a 10th place finish in Canada and 25th last weekend in Detroit. He has missed the cut more often than not at Deere Run, but did finish 2nd here back in 2018. With his tee to green game returning to form and his putter looking better than what we are used to seeing from him, this could be the start of a nice run for the bucket hat as he’s had his best moments on these easier types of courses.

Jacob Bridgeman – Here is a new name for the column this week, but that is nothing new when it comes to finding talent in these weaker fields. Like most rookies, he got off to a slow start through four tournaments, but has since played well, though he has not been in contention so he remains a little off the radar of most analysts. He is a little wild off the tee, but that could be mitigated by the wide fairways this week. The rest of his game is in good form as he ranks 24th in SGAPP and 7th in SG:Short over the last 24 rounds. His best finishes this season have all been on easier courses and this is the time of year where golfers like Bridgeman make a name for themself and lock up their tour card as Bridgeman has some work to do in the months ahead.

Patton Kizzire – Since ending a streak of six missed cuts at the end of March, Kizzire has turned things around by making the cut in five of his last six starts with all five made cuts resulting in finishes of 28th or better. His iron play has been dynamite during these recent starts as he ranks 1st among this field in SGAPP. He’s also played very well at Deere Run during his career making the cut in four of five starts with three Top-25 finishes.

 

GPP Player Pool

Core

Sungjae Im	10300
Aaron Rai	10000
Maverick McNealy	9800
Davis Thompson	9600
Denny McCarthy	9500
JT Poston	9100
Luke Clanton	8600
Seamus Power	8300
Neal Shipley	7500
Andrew Novak	7500

 

Secondary

Lucas Glover	8700
Mark Hubbard	8400
Adam Svensson	8200
Ben Griffin	7900
Daniel Berger	7400
Joel Dahmen	7300
Justin Lower	7200
Jhonattan Vegas	7200
Patton Kizzire	6900
David Skinns	6900
Troy Merritt	6800

 

Tertiary

Michael Kim	7400
Jacob Bridgeman	7300
Greyson Sigg	7200
Benjamin Silverman	7100
Jake Knapp	7100
Zach Johnson	7000
Alex Smalley	6900
Max Greyserman	6900
Patrick Fishburn	6700
Ben Kohles	6600