The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – PGA Championship

The best part of the RBC Canadian Open is that we limited our exposure to it. Thursday and Friday gave us plenty to sweat about and took us to the emotional extremes. Thursday started off a little rough, but by early Friday afternoon, it appeared that we had a chance to sweep our cash games and to put a few GPP rosters into contention. Just as I began to feel a small tug of optimism, it was snuffed out when I saw a David Hearn tee shot land somewhere in the white area of shot tracker. Just as Hearn was taking the scenic route on his way to a double bogey, Daniel Summerhays was detonating his round with the first of multiple double bogeys on his last nine holes of the second round. Between Summerhays, Hearn and Colt Knost, we lost a huge chunk of our equity within a few soul crushing holes.

Typically, having two majors within a three week span would be a little irritating, but what better way to wash away last week than to get back into another major where we have always performed well, particularly in cash games. It is the final major of the season, although there is still a lot of golf to be played over the next couple of months. The field is full of all the top players in the world this week and the course, Balusrol Golf Club, will provide the field with another challenging course that should provide viewers with a very entertaining experience.

Every time a Millionaire Maker event rolls around, it is important to consider your approach to the event. In most cases, owners want to rush into the event with as many entries as possible while neglecting the other contests that are available. As always, there are going to be a number of owners jumping into the fray this week without having played a lot of DFS golf this season. Most will not simply be content to play the Millionaire Maker and many will try to win back their Millionaire Maker entry money through cash games. This is where you will want to focus your attention this week. It is not just the inexperience of other players that makes cash games attractive, but the pricing structure as well.

In order to draw new players into DFS golf around the majors, DraftKings goes out of its way to make it way to build strong rosters, full of big name players. While some players will be able to take advantage of this situation, others will get too greedy and try to do too much in terms of stacking their rosters with too many high dollar players at the top, needlessly taking on too much risk. This is where the experience you have gathered all season will pay off. In building your cash game rosters, there are some very obvious mispricings to take advantage of to build around. Many weeks, it is difficult to use the highest priced players on your cash game rosters, but this week, it is easy to do without even needing to make a big stretch with your salary cap. If return on investment is your goal, go big with your cash game exposure this week. Nothing is a sure thing, but typically, this has been the best place to make money in DFS golf over the last few seasons.

For your Millionaire Maker rosters, it is really important to look for players with upside this week. Getting six players through the cut may get you paid, but it will just be the first step towards winning the $1 million. In order to win the event, you will need to have the winner and at least three to four other players in and around the Top 10. Every once in a while some random player makes it onto a winning team, but that roster will also usually have the winner along with a few players tied for second place to bolster the team. Take this into consideration when selecting each player to add to your pool of golfers this week. If a player has a chance to make the cut, but probably has little chance of reaching the Top-10, you are better off just passing on that player as they will not deliver the sort of value that you need.

Roster composition is always really important to consider, but with each tournament, that ownership percentage is going to be a little bit different. With The Open Championship, with weather and other course factors, that event tends to be much more wide open in terms of the type of player that can step in on a given week and win. Given that the course this week will play a bit like a US Open course, the pool of players that we can legitimately predict to have a chance to win shrinks considerably. The elite players will more than likely rise to the top, making it essential to find the right ones for your roster. What this tends to mean is that your lineup can be a little chalkier this week with the anticipation that the top players who are highly owned to begin with will also play well.

Last year, I owned 100% Jordan Spieth at this event and it nearly worked out perfectly for me. Although he was heavily owned by the field, it really did not matter as he accumulated a ton of points for my teams. It will play out the same way this week, so do not be as worried if your total ownership percentage for your rosters is a little higher than normal this week. While 60-75% total ownership might be a good starting point to target during normal weeks, I think the number will rise this week and be a little closer to the 75-85% range, especially if DJ shows up in a big way again. There could be a few players that surprise us, as there almost always are, but I think the winning rosters will contain a few very chalky plays. Remember, with a DFS event where there are over 87,000 entries, your lineup will need to be nearly perfect to win it so do not overthink ownership percentages too deeply in trying to create a unique team. You will need the best six golfers to win so save your maneuvering for other DK events with smaller fields. After all, Sergio Garcia was owned by nearly 30% of all entries for the Millionaire Maker event at The Open Championship and yet he ended up being a part of the winning roster.

The final major of the year, The PGA Championship takes us to the northern New Jersey town of Springfield and the legendary Baltusrol Golf Club. This will be the 17th major championship held at the historic landmark, including the 2005 PGA Championship. The dual courses (Upper and Lower) were designed by famed golf architect A.W Tillinghast, but this championship will be played solely on the lower course. The Par 70 course will measure a lengthy 7,400 yards for the championship and will challenge the best in the world to play at the top of their game. The course contains many small slick greens, thick rough, and a tremendous amount of bunkers, many of which have been deepened since Phil Mickelson won the 2005 championship shooting four strokes below par.

In the current field, twenty-four golfers were in the field back in 2005 the last time the event was held at Baltusrol. While this does not give us a great deal of course history to go off of, it should not be completely ignored this week. It is difficult to compare a course like Baltusrol to other courses since we only have a single event to work off of eleven years ago. Fortunately, in doing a little bit of research, I was able to find some courses that I think compare favorably to here that should help us in setting some key statistics and tracking down the types of players that we would expect to excel. Two recent stops on the PGA Tour should help us to gain some insight.

Just over a month ago, the US Open was played at Oakmont over in Pennsylvania. Oakmont, while more of a links style course, has some very similar characteristics to Baltusrol in that both are Par 70 courses and while Baltusrol is over 100 yards longer, both have narrow fairways, numerous bunkers and similar style greens (poa/bentgrass mix at Baltusrol and poa at Oakmont). The winning score at Oakmont was four under par as it was at Baltusrol back in 2005. Both Par 5 holes at Oakmont were in excess of 600 yards making it extremely difficult to reach the green in two shots. Baltusrol similarly has two Par 5 holes with one being in excess of 650 yards. Without many Par 5 scoring opportunities, I would anticipate the scoring this week to be similar to what we see on most US Open style courses rather than the scoring fest we saw a year ago at Whistling Straits.

The other course that I felt made for a good comparison to Baltusrol was Firestone Country Club where the WGC Bridgestone is held every year. Firestone is a Par 70 that is also 7,400 yards in length and has one Par 5 that is reachable in two shots and another that is close to 650 yards, just like Baltusrol. The Par 3 and 4 holes are close in length for comparison purposes and the scoring does not tend to go excessively low either. Since 2006, every winner of the PGA Championship has finished inside of the Top-20 at Firestone before going on to win the Wanamaker Trophy. Some quick observations from the tournament history of the WGC Bridgestone shows us that distance is certainly beneficial, but accurate players that minimize mistakes can also succeed as well. Birdies are still important, but they will be few and far between meaning that minimizing bogeys is important this week. Given that factor, the play around the greens should be emphasized and since most of the greens are guarded by bunkers, sand saves is worth looking at even if it did not make it into the key statistics for the week. The Fantasy Golf Metrics guys ran the numbers for us and gave us this breakdown:

Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 25%
Strokes Gained Putting: 25%
Strokes Gained Off the Tee: 20%
Par 3 Scoring: 10%
Strokes Gained Around the Green: 10%
Proximity 100-125 yards: 10%

Good luck this week with the event. I want to hear from you on Twitter this week with all of the close calls and sweats that you have going over the weekend. The energy probably has not hit everyone yet, but by the time things tee off tomorrow morning, I know that most of you will come around. Last year, we had a member finish in 3rd place at this event so we would like to improve on that this time around. Let us know where you finish and we will hook up the top finishing FGI subscriber with a free t-shirt.

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The optimal lineups took a beating last week which started with the unfortunate withdrawal of Charley Hoffman just before his tee time which killed a good team. It snowballed from there with David Hearn, Colt Knost and Daniel Summerhays all packing it in to crush our spirits and our bankrolls. As I look back, I still do not mind any of those players last week. All were playing great golf coming in and there was no reason that they would crumble in the manner that they did. Some weeks, the great value plays just do not hit in golf and unfortunately, three of them timed up an early departure to coincide with being on a couple of our optimal lineups.

This week, the model kicked out an initial team that very much resembles what we had at Royal Troon two weeks ago, led again by Phil Mickelson. It is a balanced roster, but with plenty of veteran experience. All of these players have done well both during this season and in PGA Championship events. Most of these players play a pretty conservative game and do not make a lot of mistakes which is all we could ask out of a cash game roster. As I have mentioned before, these are all still worth throwing into your GPP contests as well. We have had some really nice cashes in big events using the optimal lineup (which means it will probably tank this week), and if the top couple of players do falter, it is lined with enough talent so that one or two players could break through to do something substantial.

The other two lineups are headed by Dustin Johnson who is there for obvious reasons. He smoked the field at both courses I discussed above and is in such a zone right now that I want to stick with him, especially on a course where he is such a strong fit compared to his competitors. What makes this an easier decision is that the rest of the field is so reasonably priced that I do not feel like we give up anything on the rest of the rosters in terms of skill or upside. As always, I never like to use a player on all three of my lineups so I did force myself to pull Kuchar and Schwartzel off of at least one team this week, but both are great values and worth building around for cash games this week. However, any time I have ever gone in 100% on players, I have inevitably been burned (1/2 last week on GPP rosters).

Phil Mickelson – $10,200
Matt Kuchar – $8,600
Zach Johnson – $8,400
Lee Westwood – $7,900
Jim Furyk – $7,700
Charl Schwartzel – $7,300
 
Dustin Johnson – $11,600
Matt Kuchar – $8,600
Branden Grace – $8,000
Zach Johnson – $8,400
Charl Scwartzel – $7,300
Andy Sullivan – $6,100
 
Dustin Johnson – $11,600
Sergio Garcia – $9,400
Branden Grace – $8,000
Jim Furyk – $7,600
Jason Dufner – $7,100
Francesco Molinari – $6,100

Before we get too deep into the player pool, I want to make sure that you go back to the odds vs pricing page this week to note some of the bigger bargains on the board this week as it played into my GPP strategy for many of the names that I liked and included for us. When I first look over the prices each week, certain names tend to stand out immediately and when I crosscheck it with this tool, most of the time, my instincts are confirmed. A few notable names that I included:

Charl Schwartzel: +20
Steve Stricker: +19
Jason Dufner: +15
Kevin Chappell: +31
David Lingmerth: +50
Gary Woodland: +27
Andy Sullivan: +60
Francesco Molinari: +54
Brendan Steele: +50

If you compare these numbers with most weeks, you will notice a couple of things. First, the quality of the names with disparate odds is much higher than normal. Also, the magnitude of the difference is extremely high meaning that the prices offered here by DK in comparison with the betting odds are very favorable for us as buyers.

For the player pool the breakdown is as follows:

CORE

Dustin Johnson – 70% ($11,600)
Rory McIlroy – 50% ($11,400)
Matt Kuchar – 40% ($8,600)
Zach Johnson – 40% ($8,400)
Branden Grace – 40% ($8,000)
Charl Schwartzel – 60% ($7,300)
David Lingmerth – 40% ($6,300)

I used a larger core than normal, but spread out my ownership a little bit more outside of DJ. DJ does not require much of an explanation here as he has been dominant over the last couple of months and has been amazing all season in making the cut in all sixteen of his starts with eleven finishes inside the Top-10. Will he win again this week? It is very tough to say with a field this strong, but I do think he will be in the mix on Sunday and that is really all we can ask for with golf. Given his performance at two courses (Oakmont and Firestone) that I would say compare well with Baltusrol, it was not a tough decision to include DJ this week.

Rory McIlroy is another player that I liked due to success in PGA Championship events where he has won twice and finished in the Top-10 on three other occasions and also his success at Firestone where he has a win a three Top-10 finishes. His tee to green game is in good form, helped out by his strong iron play from mid to long range distances. His putting will be the key to whether he makes a Top-10 push or a push for a title.

Matt Kuchar is not the greatest player when it comes to performances at major championship events. He had a nice stretch for a few years at Augusta, but has not been able to push through for a win yet. We faded him two weeks ago at The Open and it worked out in our favor, but this week we should see Kuchar play a little better. Outside of Par 3 scoring, he is well above average in all other statistical categories this week and although his performance at Oakmont was just mediocre, he has been excellent at Firestone where he has six Top-25 finishes, three of which were in the Top-10. What I like best about Kuchar right now is his form. In his last eight events, he has six Top-10 finishes so he has a lot of momentum going for him right now and his price makes it easy to fit him in with other top players this week.

Zach Johnson feels like a player that we can plug in here and just make down a 12th place finish. He is not the bomber type that will probably win this event, but he is accurate and does not make a lot of mistakes and is tremendous around the greens. He finished 8th at Oakmont and 10th at Firestone so these types of challenging courses are a great fit for ZJ.

Branden Grace laid an egg at The Open Championship and as a result, his priced plummeted from the top tier to the middle tier this week, which gives us the perfect opportunity to pick him up at a reasonable discount. In Grace, we get a player that has missed just two cuts in eighteen starts this year, has ten Top-10 finishes and two wins. He finishes 5th at Oakmost and 10th at Firestone and his most recent win was at the RBC Heritage, another Par 70 course. Some folks this week have even suggested that the event where Grace had his other victory (Qatar Masters) is a good comparison course as it plays at 7,400 yards, but is a Par 72. Courses that force players to score have been tough for Grace in the US, but take away the courses where you have four Par 5 holes that are reachable in two shots and Grace moves back into the conversation again. We are getting a really nice price here and I think his ownership will not be that high.

Charl Schwartzel is going to be one of the top two or three chalkiest plays this week and for good reason. He has six straight Top-25 finishes and has missed just one cut all season while also recording three wins and six total Top-10 finishes. His tee to green game has him ranked in the Top-10 on tour and though his putting is below average, he plays well in all other areas. His price allows us to get a top level player onto our rosters for a middle level price.

David Lingmerth is probably the one name in this category that is a little bit of a surprise this week. It is a little surprising for me as well, but the opportunity is really strong. In terms of odds versus pricing, he is one of the top players in terms of value offered by DraftKings. For whatever reason, this has been the type of course that Lingmerth has handled really well over the last couple of years with back to back Top-10 finishes at Firestone and a 12th place finish at Oakmont. His price is depressed this week due to two really poor performances over in Scotland, but those were also links style courses and the weather was poor so I am willing to overlook those results as I think he will produce for us this week and at an extremely affordable price.

SECONDARY

Sergio Garcia – 30% ($9,400)
Rickie Fowler – 20% ($9,200)
Lee Westwood – 25% ($7,900)
Jim Furyk – 20% ($7,600)
Steve Stricker – 20% ($7,000)
Gary Woodland – 20% ($6,700)
Andy Sullivan – 20% ($6,100)

Our secondary group this week is headed by Sergio Garcia who is playing less golf this season, but making the most of it when he does show up. He won the Byron Nelson a couple of months ago and finished 5th in his last three events, including the US Open and The Open Championship. His tee to green game is as good as ever and although I do not think he can win with his putter providing some drag, he is playing relaxed and looks to be enjoying the game again which should contribute to another successful run this week.

We are either going to catch the knife with Rickie Fowler this week or get sliced up. We did just fine jumping in on him at the WGC Bridgestone where he was as cheap as we have seen him and managed a 10th place finish. Other than that, it has been ugly, but that gives us a nice opportunity as he should continue to go overlooked this week. Statistically alone, Fowler ranks sixth overall in the field and he has been good at Firestone over the years with four Top-10 finishes to his credit. He will need to avoid the big blowup holes that have killed him over the last two months, but if he can stay focused, there is no reason for him not to contend this week.

I was ready to curse Lee Westwood out at The Open two weeks ago and then he played well enough in the last round to finish 22nd and I had to let him off the hook. Since his 2nd place finish at Augusta, Westwood has been playing great golf in making seven straight cuts with all finishes, but one in the Top-25, and that one was the US Open where he started the last round in second place before nose diving to the finish. Westwood finished in 17th place the last time the event was held here in 2005 and though he has always lacked the mental toughness to finish off a win at a major, he puts himself into contention more often than not. Westwood is priced well and has a high floor, but also a potentially high ceiling.

Jim Furyk was struggling going into the US Open, but played four steady rounds and worked his way into a back door 2nd place finish. The play with Furyk is that he just does not make a lot of mistakes. He will never score like a Brooks Koepka, but he is calm and composed and is not going to try to make the miracle shot out there. This is the type of course that rewards par golf and par golf is what Jim Furyk does best. He finished 34th at Baltusrol back in 2005.

Steve Stricker fits into the mold of a player that does not make many mistakes. He is really weak off the tee, but his numbers jump the closer he gets to the green and his putter is back with a vengeance this year. It took Stricker a few events to knock off the rust this year as he is not the most prolific of players, but he has been playing really well over the last three months and he has two Top-5 finishes in his last three starts. In addition, he was always good at Firestone over the years where he collected five Top-15 finishes and showing that you do not have to be a bomber to succeed at this style of course.

Gary Woodland is playing consistent golf again after struggling in 2015. He has missed just two cuts in nineteen starts and though he has just two Top-10 finishes, he has finished in the Top-25 ten times overall. Like many of the bombers, Woodland will find success or failure based on his putter this week. His tee to green game is in the Top-15 on tour this year and he is capable of handling the long Par 4 and 5 holes well. He offers a lot of value for his price and looked excellent in posting a 12th place finish at The Open two weeks ago.

Andy Sullivan was having an average season until about two months ago when he started his current run of six straight events with a Top-25 finish, including a 23rd place finish at the US Open and a 12th place finish at The Open Championship. His game is not flashy and he certainly does not get a lot of length off of the tee, but like Jim Furyk and Zach Johnson, he does not make a lot of mistakes and that keeps him competitive at these more challenging courses. Factor that in with his price of $6,100 which is a bargain, and we get a player with upside at huge discount.

TERTIARY

Jason Dufner – 15% ($7,100) – strong recent play at US Open & The Open, former PGA Championship winner
Kevin Chappell – 15% ($6,700) – several close calls, 3rd at Bridgestone, high risk/high reward play
Kevin Na – 15% ($6,700) – steady play for the price, solid finishes at US Open, Bridgestone and The Open
Brendan Steele – 15% ($6,000) – excellent tee to green, nine Top-25 finishes, 15th at US Open
Chris Wood – 10% ($6,400) – four Top-10 finishes and a win, 23rd at US Open, low owned off of injury
JB Holmes – 5% ($7,700) – five Top-10 finishes, 3rd at The Open, 4th at The Masters
Keegan Bradley – 5% ($7,700) – great history, former winner, also very good at Bridgestone
Scott Piercy – 5% ($7,400) – 2nd place at Bridgestone and US Open, low owned after MC at The Open
Tyrell Hatton – 5% ($6,600) – missed only 2 cuts, five Top-10 finishes, 5th at The Open
Francesco Molinari – 5% ($6,100) – very cheap, 4 Top-10’s, cut maker w some upside potential
Jamie Lovemark – 5% ($5,900) – 5 Top-10’s, strong stats, not great form, but very cheap price
Younghan Song – 5% ($5,900) – 21st at Bridgestone, playing excellent on Euro and Asian Tour, low owned

Good Luck!!

-Myz

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