The Daily Spin – Genesis Scottish Open

The Daily Spin – Genesis Scottish Open

RECAP

In my analysis, I really liked three golfers near the top last week: Sungjae, Aaron Rai and Davis Thompson. I wrote of Thompson that he was likely to win this year and that it would probably happen at one of these lesser events at an easy course with a diminished field. Naturally, I ended up stacking Sungjae and Aaron Rai. While both of them finished well (12th and 7th respectively), it was Thompson who dominated the tournament in a runaway win that was never in doubt on Sunday as he cleared the field by four strokes enroute to his first win on tour, rounding out what has been a tremendous run over the last few months. His game continues to blossom as he took a couple of seasons to hit his stride but is now living up to the hype from when he came onto the tour in 2022 as a bright, young prospect from the University of Georgia. I was able to capitalize on Thompson as a 25-1 outright bet last week so I did manage to get some exposure to all three of my top rated golfers for the tournament.

I could have salvaged my DFS week without Davis had Daniel Berger not knifed me in the back on Friday afternoon. With four holes left on Friday, Berger was sitting pretty at -6 and looked like a lock to make the cut (-5) when he made back to back bogeys to fall to -4. I looked to see which holes he had left, hoping that it was 17 and 18 to at least give him an easier shot at a birdie on the Par 5, 17th hole, but it was 8 and 9 which left me needing some luck. Berger then proceeded to make the sweat especially painful by making a birdie on the 8th hole to climb back to -5 and needed just a par on 9 to get to the weekend and save my team. Shot one went 310 yards to the fairway and I felt a little better, but that did not last long as he managed to come up short and into the bunker on his approach shot and then left himself a 30 foot par putt to make the cut which he just barely missed to seal my fate. Excruciating. I dodged him in my main lineup the previous week and thought the price was right to jump back in at a course where he should play well if he is on his game. Yikes. I guess I should have just bitten the bullet and gone with old man reliable ZJ at his favorite event of the year.

I did get a nice performance out of Andrew Novak who finished in 7th place for the week and outscored Im and Rai by about 10 DK points. I was a little surprised that he was not more heavily owned in cash games as he was one of my favorite lower tier plays for the week given his form entering the tournament. Outside of some sketchy around the green play, he was locked in all week, shot all rounds below 70 and had two bogey free rounds. What makes his performance even more noteworthy was that he started off on Thursday with a bogey on the Par 5, tenth hole and followed it up with a triple bogey on eleven to go to +4 two holes into the tournament! Most golfers would have been demoralized, especially knowing that the cut line would be among the lowest of the season. However, he battled back to shoot 67 and then had only two more bogeys the rest of the weekend.

I wrote a little bit last week about how this is a great time of year to take some chances on the younger prospects that get a chance to shine during the doldrums of the season in lesser tier events. Neal Shipley and Luke Clanton were names that stood out to me after seeing both guys play well at the US Open and then follow it up with strong performances in Detroit two weeks later. I could not fit Clanton onto my team after stacking Rai and Im, but Shipley was still affordable at $7500 and when he started off -4 through the first five holes of the tournament it looked like he was on his way to another impressive performance. Unfortunately, Shipley was the anti-Novak last week. After starting off on fire early, he faded for the next 31 holes, shooting +6 the rest of the way to finish +2 for the tournament and missed the cut. Clanton, on the other hand, continued to play amazing golf and finished tied for 2nd for the week. Sadly, he is still an amateur so he has now likely missed out on close to a million dollars in prize money, but he has a bright future ahead of him.

Finally, my other value pick was Joel Dahman. He provided a very Joel Dahman performance for me with a 46th place finish. He had a couple of Top-25 finishes in recent events and has been on a nice cut making run the last few months, but is going to need more Top-25 finishes the rest of the way in order to crack the Top-100 and make the playoffs. He is going to have to get his short game under control again if he wants to make any serious runs this year. Go back and look at his putts in the second round of the JDC. His iron game was absolutely on point all day, but he could not take advantage at all as he missed one good look at birdie after another. His tee to green efforts should have had him in line to shoot at 64, but he blew too many makeable putts and could only muster a 69. I like that he is back to making cuts and with his finishes as middling as they have been, his salary is not likely to jump, but we certainly will need more if we want to consider him as a future GPP option.

Course

• Renaissance Club
• Par 70 (Three Par 5 and Five Par 3 holes)
• 7,237 yards
• Red Fescue Greens

While I have not written up this course that often, it is far from the first time that we have dealt with a links style course so take what you know into consideration. The course is on the coast in Scotland which means that the winds and weather events will largely determine how the course will play for the weekend.  While courses featured in The Open Championship might seem the most natural comparison for this week, Renaissance is a relatively new course, designed back in 2008. The fairways are generally pretty open off the tee, but defended with plenty of deep bunkers and thick rough. Given what we have seen over the years, this is usually an event where the setup is not too difficult the week prior to The Open. As is often the case for a links style course, the greens are large and the undulation and unevenness will make precision iron play the key to success. The grass is red fescue which we never see over in the U.S., but it does not play especially fast and as the recent winning scores would indicate, does not pose a particularly difficult challenge.

If you want an especially strong breakdown of the course this week, Nikolai did a wonderful job. He’s been a real stalwart for us covering the DP World Tour the last two seasons. He’s been a fantastic addition to the FGI team and those who are Pro Pack subscribers can attest to the detail and work that he puts into his columns every week. I bring it up this week specifically as this is really when his work is a huge asset for us going into these next two weeks. He knows the players on this tour better than anyone else so if you have not been following along up until now, he is the man when it comes to breaking down those names in the $6k and $7k range that are less familiar to DFS owners that are focused solely on the PGA Tour.

Course Comps

• Courses that have hosted The Open Championship
• Courses that have traditionally hosted the Irish Open
• Alfred Dunhill Links courses 

Field

Strong field this week even though this is not considered a signature event. Most of the better players in the world took the last two weeks off after the Travelers to rest up after three straight weeks of big tournaments, but now want to cross the Atlantic early enough to get acclimated and tuned in to links style courses, using Scotland as a nice warmup to get ready for the final major of the season next week. Rory returns to the field after a few dark weeks where he was able to stew on his ignominious defeat at the US Open. Six of the Top-10 golfers in the world are in the field along with fifteen of the Top-25 and thirty-three of the Top-50. There are 156 golfers in the field for the week and a cut after the second round so this should end up being one of the better events of the season as I prefer this size of field and format much more than the newly adopted structure for the signature events this season.

One thing to note this week is that there are a lot of names that are not going to be as familiar to you if you do not follow the DP World Tour. This is a co-sponsored tournament between the PGA and DP World Tour so there are a lot of stars from the European side that are priced in the value range that you really should be considering for your player pool this week. Be sure to check out the season long standings for the DP World Tour as there are likely a few names that even savvy DFS veterans might overlook. It provides a great starting point in your mass entry, GPP contests to gain a little diversification and lock in on some lower owned golfers with high potential upside.

Weather

• Forecast – Wind, waves, weather & tide Superforecast Dirleton – Windfinder

This time of year the weather can be quite difficult to navigate, but the forecast does not look that challenging considering what we have endured in previous editions. There could be some light rain going through Thursday morning, but nothing too torrential. Winds will be highest in the early morning at 15mph with gusts up to 20 mph, but then slowly dropping to 14mph with gusts to 17mph around lunch. The rest of the day should see a steady decline in winds until the end of the day to being near calm by 6pm. Temperatures will be brisk throughout the day and for the entire weekend, peaking in the low to mid 50s in the first two rounds and potentially reaching 60 for a high over the weekend. We will see a little sun on Friday and maybe peaking through the clouds again on Sunday, but clouds will be prevalent with grey skies being the order of the day. The winds flip on Friday and should be calmest in the morning. At 7am, winds are expected to be 8-10 mph and dropping down to 3-7mph by 11am and picking up to 8-14mph the rest of the day. My initial prediction is that the PM/AM golfers will have a scoring edge based upon my first look at the winds. Obviously, the course is right on the coast so wind forecasts can shift rapidly. If you can stay up late enough on Wednesday night to wait for lineup lock, getting a final weather check could give you a nice edge if winds pick up dramatically for one wave or the other.

Local Connections

• Ewen Ferguson
• Callum Hill
• Connor Syme
• Grant Forrest
• Robert Macintyre
• Scott Jamieson
• Richie Ramsay

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained Tee to Green – 30%
• Strokes Gained Putting – 20%
• Birdie or Better Percentage – 20%
• Scrambling – 10%
• Proximity – 10%
• Par 5 Scoring – 10%

 

Cash Game Plays

Top Tier

Rory McIlroy – It will be interesting to hear what Rory has to say this week after disappearing into the ether following his epic meltdown at Pinehurst three weeks ago. The pressure to win a major built up to a boiling point, but it seemed like it was his moment at the US Open before two careless missed putts near the end daggered his hopes for breaking a ten year drought. Now he needs to rebound in the worst way in order to get his mind right for The Open Championship next week where his play is always heavily scrutinized and expectations are higher than ever. He won here a year ago and has shown a propensity for bouncing back in these types of events. Afterall, he has won a lot of tournaments over the last decade, just no majors. Despite that recent choke, Rory is playing fantastic golf this year and had back to back wins not too long ago. Over the last 24 rounds he ranks 1st in SGTG and SGTOT. The only question is where his head will be at after such a crushing defeat, but my guess is that he will be at his best and ready to go.

Xander Schauffele – Xander just keep plugging along this year. After a win at the PGA Championship, he posted back to back Top-10 finishes at a 13th place finish so there was not much of a letdown after his career defining moment. He is 16/16 making the cut this season and eleven of those have ended up a Top-10 finish. He ranks second on tour this season in SGTOT and every part of his game is squared away which is what we have come to expect from him as one of the most well rounded players on tour. He won this tournament two years ago and generally elevates his play in stronger fields. If you are the least bit worried about a letdown from Rory, Xander is a great pick due his consistency throughout this season.

Tommy Fleetwood – If Tommy is ever going to win on the PGA Tour, it might as well come overseas in a DP World Tour co-sponsored event. He’s been a very good links course player during his career with a slew of recent Top-10s at The Open and three Top-10s in four starts at this course in Scotland. I get a little nervous anytime I pay up for Tommy (see RBC Heritage – 49th place), but he is playing very well this year, has missed just one cut and has only finished worse than 26th one time in his last nine starts (see RBC Heritage – 49th place…did I mention that I rostered him that week? I think the course fit justifies the price bump this week, though I would be hesitant to roster him at the top over Rory or Xander unless you are willing to get really aggressive with the lower end of your team.

Tom Kim – Kim has back to back Top-10 finishes at this event the last two years and though he did miss the cut in Detroit, it feels forgivable after an excruciating playoff loss the prior week at the Travelers where he went toe to toe with Scottie Scheffler. It ended a run of nine straight weeks on tour so he was due for a little rest though he did manage to play his way out of a slump along the way. His iron play is looking sharp again and that is what keyed his early success on tour back in 2022.

Min Woo Lee – Lee won here three years ago which gives you plenty of winners to pick from in the top tier this week. He’s missed just one cut this year and has six straight Top-26 finishes including a 2nd place finish in Detroit two weeks ago. He is really good in all areas this season except for his approach game which has languished. Still, he enters the week ranked 18th in SGTG and 7th in SGTOT over the last sixteen rounds. His tee shot placement and adept short game should be enough to keep him in contention at this links style course where he is more than comfortable.

 

Middle Tier

Brian Harman – Early in Harman’s career, he did not play that well in Open Championships, but that changed with a 19th place finish in 2021, a 6th place finish in 2022 and then a dominating win last year. He also finished 12th in Scotland last year the week prior to his win so he had a lot of momentum that was building for him. A win like that would have been a relief for many players, but Harman did not downshift at all and continued to play at a high level this season. He’s missed just two cuts this year in seventeen starts, has nine Top-25 finishes and finished runner-up at The Players Championship in March. He is never one to gain a lot of ground off the tee, but he is accurate, plays well from short to mid range with his irons and is known for having an above average short game. That is a good mix of skills to be successful for links style golf courses.

Aaron Rai – Rai won this event four years ago and if you read a little lower you will get to Bernd Wiesberger who won here five years ago. I am not sure I have ever written up the last five winners of any particular event, but all of them stood out this week as very strong plays in most metrics I considered. Rai is the strongest value play for me this week. He is in the middle of an incredible run and is putting together his best season on the PGA Tour. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks 6th in SGTG and 6th in SGTOT among this field. He’s made eight straight cuts, six of which resulted in Top-25 finishes and has back to back Top-10s.

Davis Thompson – I feel like DK is just daring us to roster Thompson this week after winning at Deere Run. He’s played so well, but we have seen this play out poorly in the past where a golfer gets a breakthrough first win on tour and then proceeds to fall off of a cliff over the next couple of months. Something tells me it will be different for Davis as he was building towards that win over the last few months and doing it with all around great play. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks 4th in SGTG and 4th in SGTOT and there is no single area of his game that is carrying him right now. It is a quick turn for him this week, but it was also a very low pressure win at the JDC as the tournament was never in doubt near the end so he may not be quite as depleted as he otherwise might have been in a more stressful contest.

 

Lower Tier

Thomas Detry – As soon as I saw this price for Detry I knew he would make my lineup. He is 5/5 making the cut at this event and finished in the Top-10 in two of the last three years. Outside of two disastrous rounds in back to back events early in the year, Detry has been a decent DFS option. He had ten Top-25 finishes last season and is on pace to equal or exceed that this year with seven so far. The rolling stats are not pretty, but his putter is looking sharp, ranked 4th in SGP over the last 24 rounds.

Tom McKibbin – Tom McKibbin is a name you are going to be very familiar with over the next few years. He is only 21 years-old and already holds a win on the DP World Tour. He turned professional at age 18 and has been steadily moving up the ranks since then. He’s missed only one cut in 2024, has eleven Top-25 finishes in thirteen starts and six Top-10s. He played here a year ago and finished 35th. He ranks 8th in the DP World Tour Race to Dubai standings this season and also finished 41st at the US Open recently.

Ewen Ferguson – Ferguson is coming in this week off of a win at the BMW International, but that is not going to stop me from including him here as he has played well all year and as a Scotsman, this should be an event he is motivated for each year, especially with all of the extra attention it receives now. He has made the cut in all three starts here and finished a career best 12th place last year. He’s missed only one cut all season and ranks 16th in the DP World Tour Race to Dubai standings.

Bernd Wiesberger – We finish off our top cash game plays this week with an old and familiar name. Bernd never really panned out on the PGA Tour, but has enjoyed a very successful run on the European Tour over the years, including a win at this course in this event five years ago where he has made the cut in all three career starts. In twelve starts this year, he’s missed just one cut and has nine Top-25 finishes. While he never did much with his opportunities in major tournaments during his career (two Top-20s in 30 career majors), he does have eight wins on the European Tour throughout his career so these are the types of events where you want to target Bernd, especially at such a low salary.

 

GPP Player Pool

Core

Rory McIlroy	11900
Xander Schauffele	11700
Tommy Fleetwood	9900
Tom Kim	9500
Min Woo Lee	9200
Brian Harman	8600
Aaron Rai	8300
Davis Thompson	7900
Robert Macintyre	7800
Thomas Detry	7200
Tom McKibbin	7000

 

Secondary

Wyndham Clark	8100
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	7500
Tom Hoge	7100
Ryan Fox	7100
Erik van Rooyen	7000
Ewen Ferguson	6700
Ben Griffin	6600
Bernd Wiesberger	6600
Jordan L Smith	6600

 

Tertiary

Rasmus Hojgaard	6800
Nicolai Hojgaard	6800
Matt Wallace	6700
Sebastian Soderberg	6400
Guido Migliozzi	6000
Calum Hill	5900
Adrian Otaegui	5800
Matteo Manassero	5700
Alexander Bjork	5600
Sean Crocker	5500