The Daily Spin – DraftKings Preview – Workday Charity Open

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Recap

Sometimes you overthink things and feel like a fool at the end of the weekend. That was certainly the case last week as I faded Bryson in GPP over fears of heavy ownership. He rolled to a win on Sunday and made the decision to fade him look incredibly foolish. Those are the breaks with DFS sometimes. You make calculated decisions and hope to take advantage of crowded ownership situations. More often than not, a move like that will work out fine and Bryson will do well, but not well enough to pay off his salary and we’ll have opportunities to take advantage with some contrarian positions. Last week, unfortunately, was not that week and I took a loss on my GPP entries.

In cash, it was agony out of the gates as is so often the case on Thursdays during the first round. Sneds was terrible, missing a couple of short putts early and putting nothing together on the back nine to finish over par in the morning when everyone was scoring. Cabrera Bello kicked off his round with an early birdie, but then fell apart the rest of the next two days. He bogeyed 4 of the last 5 holes on Thursday and had zero shot to make the cut Friday. Sneds, to his credit, battled back on Friday afternoon and started off -4 through the first nine and gave me hope for a miracle comeback, but that feeling was short lived. A disastrous 4-putt on the Par 5, 14th hole left my team in a hole that was going to be tough to climb out of going to the weekend.

The four of six that made the cut for me in cash did battle over the weekend. Adam Hadwin worked his way up to a 4th place finish. Viktor Hovland played well again and finished 12th, his fourth straight Top-25 finish. Lucas Glover finished strong and notched a 21st place finish. Brian Stuard fell back on Sunday, but still finished in 30th which was great for his salary. It was enough to claw back a couple of wins in some higher dollar double ups to avoid getting wiped out for the week. We desperately needed Viktor to shoot 69 instead of 71 on Sunday to get the bonus and a Top-10 finish and we would’ve been green across the board, but we did at least get a good sweat out of things on Sunday and recouping some funds that I had kissed goodbye on Friday felt like a mini win in its own right so I felt good to walk away from my Bryson fade with only a small loss.

Course 

Muirfield Village Golf Club

Jack Nicklaus design

7,392 yards, Par 72, Bentgrass Greens

Designed to play similarly to Augusta as a second shot course, lots of right to left tee shots

Plenty of bunkers (73) and water hazards (13 holes) scattered throughout the course

Scoring on the Par 5’s is key, especially this week as the course will likely play a little easier than next week

Par 3 holes are the most challenging, players must work not to lose strokes here

Greens are meant to mimic Augusta and usually play firm and fast, will be interesting to see if they play the same way both weeks or easier for the first tournament

Course Comps 

Augusta – Wide fairways, second shot course, fast bentgrass greens, Par 72

Bay Hill – Similar length, Par 72, fast greens, relatively easy fairways to hit

Houston – Par 72, fast greens, easy to hit fairways

TPC Boston – Similar length, bentgrass greens, fast greens

Glen Abbey – similar length, Par 72, fast bentgrass greens

Liberty National – similar length, fast bentgrass greens

Nine Bridges – Par 72, wide fairways, bentgrass greens

 

Field 

We are back to seeing a fully loaded up field with plenty of big names that can contend. It is quite odd to see events at the same course in back to back weeks and we are likely never going to see this again so enjoy the dynamic, especially from a DFS perspective as next week is really going to play with people’s minds after seeing how everyone plays the first time around. Tiger will be returning next week so the event will feel like a full blown major which is exciting.

In looking at this field, there is no overwhelming favorite like last week with Bryson. The top players on the board all look like they have a potential path to victory and this is an event where there have been some long shot winners in recent years. If the course is set up to play a little easier this week then that will only help those golfers in the middle priced range. The course is challenging, but I am not sure if the folks running the tournaments will want to make next week more difficult in keeping with the normal play of the course. I could see them using easier pin placements this week, shorter rough and slower greens to allow for more scoring this week over next, but I am not completely sure. My thought is that Jack Nicklaus will want his event to retain its usual prestige next week so that there will be some noteworthy changes.

My thought for the field this week is that you will be able to get away with using more of the mid level tier bombers in this event, but maybe not as much next week. I think there will be more room for error off the tee this week as opposed to next week. My strategy will be to continue to find value in the ball strikers with heavier emphasis off the tee and on approach this week. The greens should play a little slower this week than next which further helps a lot of the tee to green specialists that are not so slick around and on the greens. We could see a little rain on Friday and Saturday as well which would help to soften things up.

 

Weather 

https://www.windfinder.com/weatherforecast/shawnee_hills_o_shaughnessy

If you take a look at the Superforecast tab, the weather looks pretty mild for the first two rounds this week. Thursday should be partly cloudy with temperatures in the high 80’s and winds look nearly calm all day. On Friday, winds will be 7-8 mph in the morning and picking up in the afternoon and peaking at around 5pm at 12mph with potential gusts to 15 with light precipitation possible beginning around 3pm. It looks like the PM/AM wave will have an advantage this week so tilt your builds in that direction. Saturday could be a little gustier, but doesn’t look bad. Sunday could see winds and rain later in the afternoon, but I have not seen the hourly forecast yet so it is hard to tell exactly when the rain is to be expected.

Local Connections

Harold Varner III – Born in Akron

Jason Dufner – Born in Cleveland

Ryan Armour – Born in Akron, went to Ohio State

Jason Day – Lives in Westerville

Jim Herman – Born in Cincinnati, went to school at Cincinnati

 

Key Stats

Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 25%
Strokes Gained Putting: 20%
Birdie or Better Percentage: 15%
Scrambling: 10%
Par 5 Scoring: 5%
Strokes Gained Off the Tee: 10%
Proximity: 15%

 

Cash Game Strategy

Reading through my column from last week, the words of my column echo in my head, ‘so long as Bryson does not win…’ Yeah, that made it a tougher road last week though I am fine with our decision not to pay up. Without a win, most of those teams that just edged us out would not have been close last week. If DFS players want to pay up every week, we will be in good shape. Since my 4/6 team was still able to win in a couple of the higher dollar double ups that I entered, I lost a very minimal amount. Had Sneds not had a total meltdown with a four putt on Friday, or if Hovland had simply managed to shoot a 69 on Sunday to get the bonus, it would have been a clean sweep again.

This week, there are a couple of ways to approach cash games. I see one of three players likely at the top of most lineups this week. Patrick Cantlay will be at the top of many lineups this week as he ranks out as the top play this week in my model and given his history here, seems to project for being very heavily owned in cash games. Hovland would be another likely anchor for rosters as it frees up a few extra dollars to play with and opens up your options in the $8k range. Hideki should garner some attention as well this week with his past history. He’s had a couple of bumps in recent years, but his iron play is so good that he’s a natural fit.

You are also going to see some players stacking two of these three players. Last week, that worked out for folks with golfers like Matthew Wolff, Lanto Griffin and a few other low dollar players scoring really well. That is an option this week, but I am not likely to pursue that path. Last week, Bryson was an overwhelming favorite and he’s playing at another level. His win bailed out owners who would have been in trouble with anything outside of a dominant finish on Sunday. I do not think the favorite is nearly so obvious this week. Yes, players like Justin Rose, Hideki and Cantlay have great history at Muirfield, but we’ve seen winners like Jason Dufner, William McGirt and David Lingmirth pull off wins on this course over the years. That said, there are a lot of strong value plays to work with in the middle to lower $7k range this week so if you are able to get a couple of Top-10 finishes from your most expensive golfers and can find a way to get three of four value plays through the cut, you should be in good shape. Of course, as is the case almost every week, that is far easier said then done. At this point, I still have not finalized my own cash game roster, though I am starting to zero in on some names for the week.

 

Patrick Cantlay	10600
Hideki Matsuyama	10000
Justin Rose	9700
Viktor Hovland	9500
Rickie Fowler	9000
Patrick Reed	8800
Marc Leishman	8700
Matt Kuchar	8500
Joaquin Niemann	8400
Gary Woodland	8300
Adam Hadwin	8200
Byeong Hun An	7900
Kevin Streelman	7800
Joel Dahmen	7700
Ian Poulter	7500
Maverick McNealy	7500
Harold Varner III	7500
Mark Hubbard	7400
Lanto Griffin	7400
Cameron Tringale	7300

 

Patrick Cantlay – Cantlay ranks at the top of my model this week by a wide margin. If you want to start here, I have no issues with that. He gets good distance off the tee, is accurate and one of the best in the world with his irons. He tightened up his short game over the last two years and has been incredibly consistent, missing only four cuts since his return to action back at the beginning of 2017. He’s 3rd on tour in Par 5 Scoring and .185 strokes per round better on bentgrass than other surfaces. He’s played really well at comp courses the last couple of years (win at Memorial last year, 4th the previous year and finished 9th at Augusta last year) and ranks second in the field in SGTOT on comp courses for players with at least five starts. He played well at the Travelers two weeks ago, shooting under 70 in all for rounds on his way to an 11th place finish.

Viktor Hovland – With four straight Top-25 finishes to re-start the season, Hovland has been very reliable over the last month. He leads the field in SGTG over the last 12 rounds, guided by his game off the tee and on the approach. The only real weak point for Viktor this season is that his short game is still in need of a lot of work. His approach shots put him in position to make plenty of birdies, but he’s unreliable on the greens and does not covert enough of those 8-12 foot putts to push him to the top of the leaderboard. He’s definitely in play for cash games again this week, but it is a tougher field than last week, so a Top-10 finish will not come easily for him.

Joaquin Niemann – My model really lights up for Niemann this week. He has a similar style to Hovland off the tee and on the approach, but the short game does not usually hold up well. However, this is a week where the splits tell an important story. Niemann is a far better player on bentgrass over other surfaces by and average of .518 strokes per round, a remarkable difference. If we can target Niemann at easier courses where his putter is less of a problem, then he needs to be on a lot of our rosters in all formats. In two starts at Muirfield, he’s finished 6th and 27th so it seems to suit his eye. He’s made the cut in all three of his starts since the break and had a 5th place finish at Harbour Town three weeks ago.

Adam Hadwin – I am impressed with the improvements to Hadwin’s game this season. His irons had fizzled out on him the last couple of seasons, but he’s been much better in his approach game all season. His putter is also back to where it was three years ago when he won and was in contention regularly all season long. While he has not had great success at Muirfield over the years, he’s still firmly in the positive in SGTOT for all comparable courses during his career. He’s missed just one cut this season and finished strong a week ago in Detroit, making a late move to lock up a 4th place finish.

Joel Dahmen – Everything points to Dahmen this week as a great cash game play. That is usually the time when he blows up on us, but how do we get away from a player at this price who is 14/16 making the cut with eight Top-25 and four Top-10 finishes? For a second shot course, Dahmen is the man that we want from the fairway as he ranks 10th among the field over the last 12 rounds 13th overall on tour in SGAPP this season. The bad news is that he is not strong on bentgrass by .2 strokes per round compared to other surfaces. He should be able to get to the weekend for us and his upside make him compelling for the price.

Maverick McNealy – Since opening the season by missing two cuts, McNealy has gone on a tear in missing just one cut in his last 15 starts. Though his tee to green game is not spectacular, he gets the job done on the greens and is solid across the board on every surface. His game is on a very positive trajectory right now as he’s finished inside the Top-15 in four of his last eight starts, including an 8th place finish last week in Detroit. Though he is not a bomber he does rank 33rd on tour this season in Par 5 Scoring so he should be in good position to keep his hot streak going for another week.

Harold Varner III – It sounds redundant, but HVIII is another golfer that is playing well off the tee and on his approach, but his short game is trash and it keeps him from finishing strong over the weekend. While that is frustrating for fantasy owners, we are looking for cut makers in this price range and he should again be up to the task, having made the cut in three of four starts over the last month. Over the last 16 rounds versus this field, HVIII ranks 4th in SGAPP and 23rd in SGTOT. He also ranks 6th in birdie average per round through that time frame and if the course is set up for him to blast away off the tee, he should be able to produce plenty of fantasy points, even if he does finish outside of the Top-20.

 

GPP

CORE – 25-50%

Patrick Cantlay	10600
Hideki Matsuyama	10000
Justin Rose	9700
Viktor Hovland	9500
Collin Morikawa	9200
Patrick Reed	8800
Marc Leishman	8700
Joaquin Niemann	8400
Gary Woodland	8300
Adam Hadwin	8200
Joel Dahmen	7700
Ian Poulter	7500

 

Hideki Matsuyama – I wavered a bit here with Hideki, but he played just well enough last week for me to give him the nod. I debated between him and Xander, but have not liked what I have seen of Xander’s iron play since returning from the break and Hideki’s approach play is still dialed in and getting better by the round. The fear with Hideki is the putter…always the damn putter, but he’s at least not awful in his career on bentgrass where he’s just onto the positive side in SGP for his career. The track record at Muirfield is very good as well with a win and a couple of other Top-10 finishes, though his one missed cut in 2017 was particularly painful for some great DFS rosters that I had in play that week. He ranks second behind Patrick Cantlay in SGTG on comp courses for the week and with 22 starts across those courses, has an average finish better than any other player in the field this week with at least five starts.

Justin Rose – What do we believe this week, the first nine rounds after the break or the most recent round that left Rose owners (ME and probably a few of you) in the lurch? Ditching the Honma irons seems to have helped him to right his tee to green game and the time off seems to have helped him get his swing back. Now we just have to hope that he can find the putter that carried him to #1 in the world just a couple of years ago. He certainly has not had issues at Muirfield over the years with a win and four other Top-10 finishes and tends to be a little better on bentgrass surfaces. Looking at Rose’s success on other comp courses like Augusta among others, he’s put together a nice record over the years and should be able to add to that this week.

Collin Morikawa – Jeff wrecked Morikawa’s cut streak two weeks ago, but that gives us a perfect spot to jump back on him this week. His game is very similar to Viktor Hovland and Morikawa is an even better iron player at this point, which is impressive. Both struggle with their short game, but each is also considerably better on bentgrass. Having taken a week off after missing a cut, Morikawa should be well rested and ready to carve up what should be a great setup for his game.

Patrick Reed – If you give Patrick Reed a big enough fairway, he is bound to find it a few times each week. He’s a past winner at Augusta, Liberty National and always plays well at Kapalua, another course where it easy to hit fairways which makes the rest of his game that much more effective. In addition, Reed is also about .3 strokes per round better on bentgrass than other surfaces. He ranks 7th on tour in Birdie or Better % so scoring should not be a problem if the course is opened up this week.

Marc Leishman – Leishman is another tough player to figure out. He has a win at Torrey Pines, 2nd place finish at Bayhill and 3rd at Silverado, but his game has been a little off from what we would normally expect. His approach play has been off the charts at he leads the tour in SGAPP, but wild off the tee and struggling much more than normal with his short game. Muirfield has been a good course for the big man over the years as he’s made nine straight cuts and finished in the Top-15 in four of his last five starts.

Gary Woodland – Woodland’s last two starts have been forgettable, but prior to that, he had been playing really well. His ball striking is improving each year as he’s the rare breed that is both long and accurate off the tee. Unfortunately, he has not been as good off the tee of late so we’ll have to hope that this part of his game that is usually such a strength can come together this week. However, his iron play has picked him up as he’s currently ranked 10th on tour in SGAPP and he’s putting well. Woodland can be a streaky player, but he is also 10th in Par 5 Scoring which means that even an average finish can generate a lot of fantasy points for us at this price.

Ian Poulter – I am a sucker for reliable players and though there is not anything in Poulter’s arsenal that makes him stand out statistically, he’s become a very consistent cut maker over the last couple of seasons. He’s missed just one cut this season and only missed three last season. Though he has not played Muirfield in recent years, he’s established a nice record on comp courses through his career. Surprisingly, he’s also ranked 27th on tour in Par 5 Scoring this season so he should be able to provide some upside in getting to the weekend. He’s made all three cuts since returning from the break and though he had one bad round at the Travelers, he’s looked good with a 29th and 14th place finish in his other two starts.

 

SECONDARY – 15-25%

Matt Kuchar	8500
Matthew Fitzpatrick	8000
Byeong Hun An	7900
Kevin Streelman	7800
Scottie Scheffler	7800
Cameron Champ	7700
Maverick McNealy	7500
Harold Varner III	7500
Lanto Griffin	7400
Mark Hubbard	7400
Russell Henley	7300
Ryan Palmer	7200

 

TERTIARY – 0-10%

Corey Conners	7600
Rory Sabbatini	7400
Ryan Armour	7400
Cameron Tringale	7300
Scott Stallings	7300
Emiliano Grillo	7200
Max Homa	7100
Brian Stuard	7100
Brendan Steele	7100
Kyle Stanley	7000
Matthew NeSmith	6800
Henrik Norlander	6500