The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Weekend Edition – The Masters

As I look at the leaderboard tonight and my lineups in general, the only thought that comes to my mind is, why did DJ have to hurt himself? The picks were really solid this week outside of Tyrell Hatton completely laying an egg and if it had not been for losing DJ and throwing everything into chaos, I am confident we would be winning everywhere tonight instead of just in the mix. However, as we know with fantasy golf, anything can and will happen which is why we just have to do our best to roll with things and move on. Fortunately, for those of you who may not be in the best position following the opening two rounds, DraftKings has created a new, weekend edition to help get you back into the mix before next week!

How will this be different than what is available right now? Well, there are a few very key differences in the rules that you definitely want to note before diving in and selecting your rosters. First and foremost, there are no position points awarded based upon finishing position. This is huge since it means that the best player each week for the Round 3-4 edition will not necessarily be the guys at the top of the leaderboard which is going to throw people off at least initially. The differences are important enough to note that I am going to put them right here for you to reference:

Weekend Golf Scoring is as follows:

• Per Hole Scoring
  • Double Eagle or Better (DBe): +10 PTs
  • Eagle (EAG): +6 PTs
  • Birdie (BIR): +3 PTs
  • Par (PAR): +0.5 PTs
  • Bogey (BOG): -0.5 PTs
  • Double Bogey (DBB): -1 PT
  • Worse than Double Bogey (DBW): -1 PT
• Streaks and Bonuses
  • Streak of 3 Birdies of Better (MAX 1 Per Round) (BIR3+): +1.75 PTs
  • Bogey Free Round (BOFR): +1.75 PTs
  • All 2 Rounds Under 70 Strokes (A2U70): +2.25 PTs
  • Hole in One (ACE): +4 PTs

They managed to eliminate much of the ridiculousness around the scoring for the hole in one, they cut back on points for eagle and they trimmed the streak bonuses. I actually quite prefer this method of scoring and would like to see it applied to DK’s regular PGA product while keeping position points. It’s far more equitable and does not give as much credit for silliness that helps DK owners, but does not actually equate to what awards actual golf results. It should also be more punitive to golfers that score triple bogeys or worse, but hey….baby steps, right?

Now the big question is how the hell are we going to play this new game? It’s not terribly intuitive, so I do not want you rushing to get all of your money in tonight before we start to get a feel for the game. Since DK did not really allow for a lot of notice on the release of this new version of PGA, there is still a ton of debate over the best way to approach these contests. Here are the key factors to look at when looking to gain an edge over your competition:

1. Weather – This is huge. The players at the bottom of the standings tee off first which means that the weather will play a massive role in the outcome over the weekend. Since there is no flip in tee times between the two days, if the winds in the afternoon look bad for both days, then grabbing players at the bottom of the standings is going to be a really easy choice. Weeks like this one are not going to offer much of an advantage either way as the weather is going to be beautiful both days, but in the future, we are going to need to be evaluating weather very closely to find out where the advantage is for the week. Obviously, if a player makes a big run on Saturday, then he will be teeing off later on Sunday, but then he has done his job for us by scoring a lot on Saturday so we are fine with that outcome.
2. Course History – This still matters, but not nearly as much as before. Every player left in the field has now had two rounds on the course under current state of the course. Every year, despite the fact that tournaments are played on the same course, the setup does vary. Maybe the rough is left to grow out like at the Arnold Palmer, maybe conditions are really wet or really firm, maybe the greens are playing a lot slower or faster than previous years. Whatever the case may be, the course is now reset to the present year and however the folks running the event want it to play. We still want players who are familiar with the course over the long term, but the overall results from year to year do not mean quite as much, but the fact that they know the ins and outs of the course are still important. This weekend is a perfect example. There is no reason for Freddie Couples to be competing with the top players in the world and yet there he is in 6th place going to the weekend. Now, he may not end up near the top, but it is clear that the hundreds of rounds he has played there over the years help him and players like him to keep pace. Just look at the placement of his approach shot on 18 today. That is someone who knows the contour of every single green like the back of his hand. With the weather being windy and throwing many of the big hitters off, Freddie’s game and knowledge played perfect for the conditions. Now, every course will not be like Augusta so we will alter the weights for this, but clearly, experience matters.
3. Odds vs Current Position – This is a tricky one. Looking directly at the odds themselves will be misleading since we are not too interested in who is going to win. We want to know who is going to score the most, which should correlate with players who are gaining ground in the standings. What I did to look at this was to take the current position of every player left in the field and subtracted the position of where they are in their projected odds to win. For example, Jordan Spieth is tied for 10th, his projected odds to win are third best in the field, a difference of seven spots. Similarly, Rory sits tied for 13th and has the 5th best odds to win, a difference of 8 spots. It’s not a perfect metric, but gives you some idea up and down the field of who Vegas is projecting to rise or fall. I will attach the chart I built at the bottom of my picks.
4. Key Statistics – These are going to be very important in determining who to select. Most of the time, these will stay close, but we will obviously need to increase the birdie or better metric to accommodate the scoring system. If we are not going to lose points for bogeys or falling dramatically in position, then let’s go ahead and grab some players that can score and are willing to go for the pin at every opportunity. This metric should give you the best idea of how a golfer should be handling a course. Now, obviously there are intangible factors that we know about. Jason Day is going through some personal issues so perhaps he is not the value he appears to be, but in any case, the stats should help you to determine who should regress to the mean and who should outperform.

 

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