The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – WGC St Jude Invitational

The final major of the season has come and gone and it went down with little drama last weekend as Shane Lowry won a dominant six shot victory over his nearest competitor and there was never really a lot of drama along the way after the first hole on Sunday. It was an emotional win for the Irishman and a bit of a fairy tale ending for the fans at the event who are still celebrating the victory into the middle of the week. It was not quite the hometown hero that many had hoped would make a run for the Claret Jug, but still a great win for Lowry who had been building up solid form over the last few months.

It was a weird week for me in terms of fantasy results. I had a strong feeling that my cash game team would be highly duplicated and by the time I saw the number after lineup lock, my intuition was confirmed as my team was owned more often than any other cash game team that I have ever played. Even upon seeing that, I still felt good about the team of Cantlay, Scott, Kuchar, Stenson, Simpson and RCB. I just could not envision any of them missing the cut for the week. Obviously, having both Adam Scott and RCB whiff badly was really disheartening.

As soon as I heard that Scott had decided to switch putters, my heart sank. For the last few years, Scott has been at war with his putter and had gone back and forth between the short and long putter over and over. It really felt like he had finally figured it out this season in using the long putter and his numbers had been great this year along with his results. Given his strong play at The Open over the years, it just felt like a no-brainer decision to roster him last week so it was really surprising to get such a poor effort from him for the week.

In similar fashion, Rafa Cabrera Bello also missed the cut on Friday after an epic collapse on the back nine holes that would have been the biggest late choke of the round if it were not for Jason Day completely melting down to go from being in contention to missing the cut in the span of about five holes. After three straight Top-10 finishes, two of which were on links style courses, RCB seemed ready to go last week, but found a way to blow it late.

The crazy part of this whole tournament was that with 4/6 getting through the cut and most of them doing really well, it looked like I was going to still be able to profit for the week as I was ahead after both the second and third round. Unfortunately, the winds picked up on Sunday and as my players did not start early in the day, by the time that Kuch, Stenson, Webb and Cantlay got out there, the winds had started to pick up and it just crushed them all. While my cash team was able to salvage most of the dollars that I had put in for the week, after all four of those guys got blitzed in the last round, I ended up taking a loss of a few hundred dollars for the week.

It was disappointing in GPPs for me. I did not play too many contests that heavily, but I was big on Rory for the week and somehow he managed to miss the cut. It was shocking to say the least. He’s been dominant at The Open over the years, was playing at home in Northern Ireland and entered the week in great form already having won twice this season and playing some of the best golf of his career. What was really disappointing was that he fought back so hard on Friday and came within a stroke of making it to the weekend. Had he not gotten completely careless with a one foot tap in putt on Thursday that he blew, he would have had a shot to rally over the weekend as we’ve seen him do before. In any case, by putting most of my high dollar shares on Rory instead of Brooks, and in losing a couple of other key players to the cut, it put me in a rough spot the rest of the weekend and I was not able to get anything going despite that fact that I did have about 10% Lowry for the week. Overall, not my worst week as I took a small loss, but it had a lot of promise all the way to the last round when my profits slipped away.

This week, the tour makes an abrupt turn back to the US for a WGC tournament. I think this will be a rare mistake by the Tour when it comes to scheduling as putting a WGC event the week after a major is a little silly. They would have been much better off slipping it in between the US Open and The Open which would have given the stars a strong event to play between majors and also kept their interest a little better than what we are seeing this week. The players likely would have been much more engaged in using the event to get ready for The Open as opposed to now, when they are likely more focused on the FedEx Cup playoffs that start in a couple of weeks. Given that the playoffs are down to three weeks, it is likely that most players will elect to play all three events rather than skipping the first one as some did when there were four tournaments during the playoffs.

The toughest part about this week is in trying to judge motivation. WGC events do not have a cut so everyone who tees off earns a paycheck which means that there are going to be some players that are not as engaged as normal for an event like this. On top of that, TPC Southwind is one of the tougher tests that players face each year. The fairways are not narrow, but there is water all over the course and it comes into play on half of the holes this week. Distance is important this week, but not getting too wild is really important as some rather tame setups can quickly turn into nightmare numbers so the patience of many players will be tested this week. It is a Par 70 course that plays at over 7,200 yards with two Par 5s to work with for scoring opportunities. There are eight Par 4s this week that are at least 445 yards which means that iron play, particularly long iron play will be put to the test, especially since the Bermuda greens are on the small side which makes precision play that much more important. The Florida courses are great for comparison courses this week with so much water in play, Bermuda greens and tougher scoring conditions.

Key Stats

Srokes Gained Tee to Green: 30%
Strokes Gained Putting: 20%
Birdie or Better Percentage: 20%
Driving Accuracy: 10%
Proximity: 10%
Scrambling: 10%

PLAYER POOL

CASH GAME PLAYS

I am not a huge fan of cash games during no cut events during the season. If you whiff on your top dollar guy, you are in trouble and of course, on the low end, if one of your golfers throws in the towel over the weekend, you will get to enjoy some potentially ugly golf and awful DK scores. The issue that I run into most is that other owners are not going to be punished as much for their poor decision making the way they are when there is a cut to deal with. A marginal play that would have missed the cut many weeks now can get four rounds in and not lose out on as many points. This forces those of us that are generally in the balanced camp to shift up our approach since everyone (usually) ends up  6/6, barring the dreadful WD which has happened to me more than a few times and provides instant death to any cash roster (hello Danny Lee, Henrik Stenson, Daniel Berger and Brooks Koepka just to name a few that come to mind). The threat of the WD seems very real this week. After playing in Northern Ireland last week and having to travel back to the states, it would not shock me in the least if a couple of players decided to take off early if they did not get off to a great start in the first round. With the playoffs approaching, picking up a paycheck and getting some rest does not sound like the worst idea.

I am going to leave you with four value plays to work with this week to help jump start you in building your cash teams this week. I will give you plenty of extra cash to use at your discretion for locking down the last couple of names if you are looking to get creative, but I think these four make sense as a starting point and each guy should have a reasonable floor for value this week. You can toss out last week’s results. Between the links style set up and miserable winds of the final round, I do not think that it plays much into trying to determine success this week.

Webb Simpson – Solid ball striking and a strong short game have carried Webb to success this season. He’s missed just one cut in sixteen starts on the season and has finished in the Top-25 ten times. He has not played here much of late but did have a 3rd place finish five years ago. While he does not have great length off the tee, he more than makes up for it with his strong iron play and his much improved short game. He also ranks 4th in Par 4 scoring, a particularly key stat for this course.

Paul Casey – We want golfers that stay out of trouble from tee to green and Paul Casey is one of the premier ball strikers in the game as he’s go good distance, excellent accuracy and pinpoint precision iron play. He’s had a couple of hiccups this season but is usually very good on comparable courses and has won the last two years at the Valspar. He did not have his best week at The Open, but it has not been a great event for him in general. I think he bounces back in a big way for this event as he’s been very solid at WGC events over the last five years.

Chez Reavie – In sticking with precision iron players, Chez Reavie fits the bill perfectly. In the last four years, he’s had finishes of 12th, 4th and 6th at this course which is very encouraging. He’s very accurate off the tee and has one of the most precise iron games on tour as he ranks 7th in Proximity, and is very strong from 150 to 200 yards. He had a win before one blowup round at The Travelers and I think we can toss out The Open MC, but overall, he has had a nice season and it would not surprise me to see him return to the type of form that he had before his last two starts.

Billy Horschel – Billy was another casualty to Royal Portrush last week, but he is never very good at The Open so it should not have been a surprise that he missed the cut. However, if we back up to before last week, his game had been trending in a positive direction as he’d missed just one cut all season and recorded eleven Top-25 finishes. When his iron play is on, he can play as well as anyone on the course. With a strong putter and a return to Bermuda Grass, he should be able to get back on track to the courses where he’s fared better. Also, Billy has four Top-5 finishes in his last five starts at TPC Southwind so he should be very familiar with the layout

 

GPP PLAYER POOL

CORE 

Justin Rose	9500
Matt Kuchar	9000
Hideki Matsuyama	8900
Adam Scott	8700
Jason Day	8300
Paul Casey	8200
Webb Simpson	8200
Chez Reavie	7900
Matthew Fitzpatrick	7700
Billy Horschel	7500

 

Justin Rose – Rose still feels too cheap this week. He’s still one of the top players in the world and yet we are getting him at a big discount to the other big names. Outside of two bad final rounds at the last two majors, he’s been playing solid golf even if his tee to green game has been far from perfect. His tee to green game on the season is still decent and his putter will keep him competitive.

Matt Kuchar – This feels like a Matt Kuchar course. He’s not elite off the tee, but like others who have had success here, he’s extremely accurate and has an excellent approach game. With his putter beginning to heat up, he should be ready to make a charge to end an already great year that includes two wins. Also, a nice aspect of using Kuch in my core is that you never have to question his effort. He shows up ready to play every week and has fewer of the big letdowns as other golfers on tour.

Hideki Matsuyama –  Hideki battled last week, but ultimately, blew the cut on Friday to miss for the first time all year. He’s had some struggles at The Open over the years so perhaps links style golf just is not his game. Back on US soil this week, he should be able to take advantage of this course. He’s long off the tee and ranks 2nd in SGAPP and has always been one of the best in the game with his iron play, all of which should suit him well this week. Since this is usually not a birdiefest type of event, that plays into Hideki’s favor as he will not have to make as many putts to be in good shape. However, with his putter coming into form the last couple of months, it would not surprise me to see him in contention this week.

Adam Scott – What a disaster. When golfers make late equipment changes and you are the last to hear about it, you just realize how truly mediocre golf reporting is on the ground from week to week. It is frustrating since his tee to green game is so elite right now and he’s been hammering home putts all year. This should be a great setup for Scott who is excellent from tee to green and always strong with his approach play. If he’s done screwing around with his putter, he’s very much in play this week.

Jason Day – Maybe this is a sucker move, but Jason Day at $8,300 feels ridiculous. Yes, his iron play can be a little iffy, but it has been solid of late. Were it not for a massive meltdown over the last few holes on Friday, Day could have been someone we were talking about over the weekend. If he were priced just a little higher, I might be able to layoff of him, but this is too deep of a bargain not to roll with this week.

Matthew Fitzpatrick – Very quietly, Fitz has started to make a move of late with four Top-20 finishes in his last five starts. He’s done it with a decent tee to green game and has missed just one cut this season in thirteen starts on the PGA Tour. He should be able to keep the ball in play off the tee and he is likely to be one of the lower owned players in this range. I like his chances for upside in a low scoring event like this one.

 

SECONDARY

Rory McIlroy	11100
Patrick Cantlay	9800
Xander Schauffele	9300
Henrik Stenson	9100
Tyrrell Hatton	8000
Patrick Reed	8000
Rafael Cabrera Bello	7900
Andrew Putnam	7800
Brandt Snedeker	7400

 

TERTIARY

Matthew Wolff	7500
Ian Poulter	7400
Alex Noren	7300
Jim Furyk	7000
Keegan Bradley	6900
Cheng Tsung Pan	6800
Haotong Li	6600
Keith Mitchell	6500