The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – WGC HSBC

For the second week in a row, we will have ourselves some late night golf to watch as the tour moves on to Shanghai for the WGC HSBC this week for what could be dubbed, the major of the fall season. Many of the top American players will be done until January after this event. For the European player, the Race to Dubai heats up in the weeks ahead, but as the contests for DraftKings are a little on the unpredictable side in terms of field size and prize pools, I am highly uncertain about what to expect in the months ahead. Fortunately, we get to enjoy this event with a very strong field and only a few key names near the top not participating this week, with Jason Day missing due to injury and Jordan Spieth choosing to take some additional time off after probably playing a little bit too much in the intervening months after winning the Tour Championship a year ago.

To briefly recap last week, things were looking so promising for us heading into the final day that I really thought we were going to end up sweeping through our cash games and being able to do some real damage in the GPP events as well. However, Sunday proved to be a bit of a disaster as Russell Knox was unable to shake of a late water ball from the 3rd Round and continued his slide the final day falling all the way back into 10th place. He had carried our cash game teams the first couple of days, but as is so often the case with a no cut event, you are never really safe until the final hole is played. We did have some success with the GPP events last week as Justin Thomas was in a nice portion of our lineups along with Anirban Lahiri, which helped make i a profitable week in those events to offset some of the losses that I took in cash games. What ended up hurting us the most was the inability for our scrub players to do any real damage from the bottom of the salary pool. It Danny Lee two full rounds to realize that he was on a golf course before he woke up and got his game together. Chez Reavie came out of the gates quickly and looked great in the first few holes, but then went flat. Most of our players did well, but we just did not get enough near the top to put us over the top so while we avoided the bottom, it showed that once again, when dealing with an event without a cut, you really have to hit the Top-10 hard in order to be profitable not just in GPP events, but also in cash games as well.

I am not going to talk too much about strategy this week as much of what we just covered a week ago is still true this week. The field size is about the same as it was for the CIMB Classic with 78 golfers teeing off on Thursday morning. It is a cut free event which means that unless we get a withdrawal (I am looking at you, Hideki…do not go for #3 here, sir!!) we will get four full rounds of golf out of all of our players this week. If you played last week, you saw the power of owning, or not owning the winning players as well as those that finished near the top. Having six golfers on your cash team that do well, but not great will again be a recipe for disappointment. However, I do not necessarily think that you will need to take a stars/scrubs approach this week in order for to be profitable.

As I look up and down the list of players in the field this week, the biggest thing that I notice is that there is a lot of value lurking around in the mid $7000-8000 range. The European players feel a bit underpriced considering the success that many have seen over the last few months. I had very few issues putting together high quality rosters of players in these middle ranges. Obviously, DJ and Rory stand out in this field at the top and both have been dominant here as well as in their recent play, and if one of them does happen to win this week, then you will need them on your rosters. Rory is actually a big fan of this course so he will come in ready to play. After crumbling on the final weekend of the season, it is hard to say how DJ will come into the event this week. Fortunately, with the prices of many players in the middle of the field being so affordable, it is not that tough to roster either of the top two players as you will not need to make huge sacrifices for the rest of your team.

The tournament this week will take place at Sheshan International Golf Club in Shanghai, China. When you look at course history, you should note that the event has been played here every year since 2006 with the exception of 2012. There have been plenty of notable players that have won this event over the years with Russell Knox taking it down last season, Bubba Watson winning in miraculous fashion in 2014 (he chipped in out of the sand for eagle on the last hole to force a playoff) and DJ winning in 2013. The course plays as a Par 72 and is over 7,250 yards in length. The challenge this week is not so much going to be the overall length of the course as most of the Par 5 holes are reachable in two shots (3 of four), but the Par 3 holes which are all over 200 yards. Strong long iron and approach play will be important this week. I would not necessarily call this a bomber’s course, especially since Russell Knox won last year, but a little extra length will help out. The conditions this week are expected to be somewhat similar to Malaysia last week as there has been a lot of rain recently, which means we could be in for lift, clean and place again this week. The bentgrass greens should play slower due to all of the moisture that has accumulated over the last few days so I would expect a lot of scoring this week with the winning score reaching below minus 20 for the week. It is one of the rare WGC events or majors where the scores have the potential of going this low. Given the slower greens, putting is still important, but as you can see from our three most recent winners, it is not nearly as important as it is for courses with faster, more challenging greens. Finally, it looks like DraftKings has finally updated the lineup lock times for the event and as of now, I am showing 7:50 pm, Central Standard Time for the start time for the contests so be sure to jump on to Twitter after dinner tonight to check for any late withdrawal news or changes that may pop up at the last minute. This will not be a week where people oversleep so if there are changes, most people will be on top of it. Do not be the guy that misses any late news and is one of the few that does not update their lineups.

Key stats for the week from out friends at Fantasy Golf Metrics:

Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 25%
Strokes Gained Putting: 25%
Birdie or Better %: 20%
Par 5 Scoring: 15%
Driving Accuracy: 10%
Prox over 200 Yards: 5%

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As I spoke about before, our optimal lineups are not necessarily chasing the stars and scrubs approach of a week ago. In a no cut event, that is certainly the direction to go, but this week, I see so many star players priced so moderately that I did not feel like I had to focus on the $9000 and up range, followed by the players below $7000. There are so many good European players this week that are capable of putting up a solid performance that I just tried to get as many as possible onto each roster as I think there are a lot of different types of players that are capable of winning this week. I made one team with DJ leading the way at the top. He has played so well of late and is such a good fit for a course like this, that I had to find room for him on at least one team this week. Plus, as previously discussed, I did not feel like I had to make many sacrifices with the rest of the lineup overall as we have the some of the best European players from this past season on that team to compliment DJ at the top. I did try to mix in players that have some familiarity with the course, but I do not think that is essential. Russell Knox won here a year ago in his first start and with conditions being what they are, I do think that the course will be all that demanding so that if players can simply avoid the big blowup type of holes (staying out of the water) scoring should not be an issue for any of these players.

Once again, do not put a huge amount of your bankroll in play this week. With the event having a smaller field and no cut, your advantage of other players is not large and we lose our edge for picking solid players. Much like last week, most of our players did very well, but did not make the late charge to help out our cash game teams. In most weeks, those rosters would have worked well as other teams would have lost more players to a cut. In weeks like this, you are at the mercy of needing players to finish inside the Top-10. This is nice in that it rewards performance, but not so nice in that one rough round can be your undoing. Also, with so many players near the bottom of the field that will not be rostered by many owners, the field of 78 really plays more like a field of about 50. That means that there will be a lot of overlap in lineups, particularly cash games. This gives us less ability to differentiate from other players, which I do not like when looking for opportunities in cash games. For us to be profitable, we want full field events with a cut where we have enough data to feel comfortable finding value in the field and building rosters in a manner that allows us to take advantage of owners who take too much risk. We are not in a position to capitalize on mistakes this week so we will cut our exposure down as a result.

Paul Casey – $9,600
Martin Kaymer – $8,700
Russell Knox – $8,600
Danny Willett – $8,000
Bernd Wiesberger – $7,700
Louis Oosthuizen – $7,400

Paul Casey – $9,600
Adam Scott – $9,400
Martin Kaymer – $8,700
Bernd Wiesberger – $7,700
Rafael Cabrera Bello – $7,600
Soren Kjeldsen – $6,800

Dustin Johnson – $11,900
Thomas Pieters – $8,100
Alexander Noren – $8,000
Rafael Cabrera Bello – $7,600
Louis Oosthuizen – $7,400
Kevin Kisner – $6,900

CORE

Rafael Cabrera Bello – $7,600 – 50%
Rory McIlroy – $12,100 – 40%
Dustin Johnson – $11,900 – 40%
Paul Casey – $9,600 – 40%
Louis Ooshuizen – $7,400 – 40%

I really like our core group of players this week. I do not think that DJ and Rory require a whole lot of explanation here. Rory has been solid here in every appearance and is on fire over the last couple of months as we saw with his stunning victory in the FedEx Cup Playoffs, followed up by strong play at the Ryder Cup. He will score often on the Par 5 holes and his putter seems to be humming along again. I would have a hard time believing he will not be in contention this week.

Dustin Johnson finished the season in catastrophic fashion by blowing up in classic DJ fashion in the final round of the Tour Championship, but that is not unexpected for DJ. However, he tends to bounce right back and I expect the same this week. DJ won here three years ago and finished 5th last year. He gets plenty of distance off the tee, but it is really his iron play that will separate him from the pack this week. If he can continue to putt the way he did a year ago, he will be able to score often on this course and put himself in line for another Top-5 finish.

Rafael Cabrera Bello makes our core group this week on the strength of his recent performances as well as the fact that his price came down this week even after another Top-10 performance a week ago in Malaysia. The big reason for the price drop, I believe, is that it is his first appearance at Sheshen which led to Vegas giving him a little longer odds than I think he deserves. With 8 Top-10 finishes a year ago and only a single missed cut, Rafa was one of the most consistent players on tour all season. Rafa is an excellent ball striker and one of the better putters on either tour. He should again have a lot of scoring opportunities this week and is an amazing value for his price.

Paul Casey looked human last week after playing out of his mind in the FedEx Cup playoffs. He played well, but a 21st place finish in a week where he was the most expensive player on the board is a little bit of a letdown. It is nice that he played the event, however as it should help in getting his body acclimated to the time change and by this week he should be firing on all cylinders again. Casey is very familiar with the course and has finished in the Top-10 in six of nine starts. His worst finish overall here has been 23rd so that gives us a great floor for his performance which led us to use him often in cash games as well. Casey is another premier ball striker who gets reasonable distance off the tee, but is very accurate and hits plenty of greens. He is in great form right now, so he should be able to do some damage this week.

Louis Oosthuizen is an odd name for me to put into a core group…or any group for that matter. With Louis, you never know when the next dreaded WD will smack you in the face so there is always some risk. However, I am thinking that he probably would not make the trip all the way to China for an event after several weeks off unless he felt ready to play. Louis typically comes ready to play at Sheshen where he has been remarkably consistent over the years in notching six Top-15 performances in nine starts. Consistency can be an issue for Louis, but he recently had a run of five straight Top-25 finishes in stacked fields and those are usually the times when he elevates his game the most. I never get excited to roster Louis, but this week we got such a big break on his price that it really made him stand out in the model and for that reason, we are overweight on Louis this week.

SECONDARY

Si Woo Kim – $7,700 – 35% – Continues to ascend as one of the best young players in the game, has been very consistent of late, three straight Top-10’s
Kevin Kisner – $6,900 – 35% – 2nd here a year ago, has an up and down season, but seems to be coming around, a nice value for his price
Martin Kaymer – $8,700 – 30% – former winner here with three Top-10’s, plays his best golf outside the US, five straight Top-25 finishes
Russell Knox – $8,600 – 30% – Defending champion, two time winner last year and finished in the Top-10 a week ago, excellent ball striker who will be competitive again
Emiliano Grillo – $7,800 – 30% – great value for the price, accurate player that hits a lot of greens
Bernd Wiesberger – $7,700 – 30% – four straight Top-10 finishes coming into the tournament, 17th here a year ago
Thomas Pieters – $8,100 – 25% – very solid in recent months with several Top-10 finishes and a win, finished 23rd here a year ago
Alexander Noren – $8,000 – 25% – three wins in his last eight starts, playing the best golf of his career right now
Scott Hend – $7,100 – 25% – looked great last week in Malaysia, Top-25 in his last two starts here, big hitter with little downside in a no cut event

TERTIARY

Adam Scott – $9,400 – 20% – top ball striker, in good form, finished 10th a week ago after a slow start, putter should be less of an issue on slower greens
Ross Fisher – $7,800 – 20% – excellent track record here with three Top-3 finishes in five starts, two recent 2nd place finishes on Euro Tour
Soren Kjeldsen – $6,800 – 20% – good value for the price, played well in tough fields last season, accurate off the tee, putts well, two Top-15 finishes here
Bradley Dredge – $5,900 – 20% – a cheap option, tends to be boom or bust, but limited downside risk without a cut, two 21st place finishes here
Richard Bland – $7,300 – 15% – comes in with incredible form having finished in the Top-18 in his last six starts, first start in this event
Joost Luiten – $6,400 – 15% – another very cheap boom or bust option, nine Top-10 finishes and a win on the season, excellent risk versus reward
Hao Tong Li – $7,000 – 10% – young Chinese player making his 4th start in this event where he finished 7th a year ago and has always played reasonably well
KT Kim – $5,900 – 5% – a salary saving option, not a lot of upside, but has played here five times with three finishes inside of the Top-30

Good Luck!!

-myzteriouzly

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