The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – Wells Fargo Championship
I hope everyone enjoyed a relatively quiet week during the Zurich Classic and perhaps you tried your hand at Euro for a change of pace. As I have noted previously on several occasions, it is nice to take a little break every couple of months either due to a slow week in the season as was scheduled last week, or just so that you do not get burned out too early in the year. Some DFS players feel this overwhelming obligation to play every possible slate throughout the season. They feel like they do not want to miss out by looking at the leaderboard and thinking to themselves that they would have done well had they only played their normal volume. It’s like the people who play the same lottery numbers each week all the time who are deathly afraid that if they miss a day then that will be the day their lucky numbers pop up. Try not to feel this way when you take some time off. Realize that taking a break, allowing your mind to relax and getting away from the research for a few weeks out of the season will help you in the long run to play your best much more consistently which in turn should lead you better profits overall.
I for one, enjoyed the event last week. Without a DraftKings event available, I turned my attention towards outright bets and Jeff and I made sure to cover the ten or so teams that we liked the best going into the event and made specific mentions of our favorites that we would bet for the week. One of the first teams that I mentioned was Jon Rahm and Ryan Palmer. I was going to be betting Rahm at this event so long as he was paired up with someone with four working limbs. To me, he was the best player in the field so as long as he did not decide to pair up with a total lost cause (I am looking at you, Jim Furyk teaming up with David Duval), I loved the fact that we would get a chance to bet him at 18-1 when if he were in this same field without the team aspect, he would probably have had 8-1 or 10-1 odds to win. It was a nice win for Rahm as he has now won an event in three straight seasons, and an especially nice win for Ryan Palmer who has endured an up and down run over the last three years, much of which was due to his wife’s battle with cancer.
This week, the tour moves on to one of my favorite courses of the season at Quail Hollow. There are those folks who favor courses where golfers are able to make birdies on most of the holes throughout the event, but Quail Hollow is not one of those courses. It is a long, challenging layout and the players will need to use every club in their bag to work their way through it. This will not be one where guys can get away with leaving driver in the bag unless they are extremely strong with their long iron play. Even if that is the case, with nine holes of at least 449 yards and five holes of at least 483 yards, players are going to need every yard they can muster off the tee.
When looking at the course history this week, as well as key stats, keep in mind that there have been some big changes to the course in recent years. Following the 2016 tournament, Tom Fazio did a re-design of the course in preparation for the 2017 PGA Championship which took place in August of 2017. Of note, this has typically been a course that favors the bombers, but the PGA Championship tended to favor the ball strikers over the bombers as the rough was thicker in August and tougher to play out of overall. In 2018, the course also began to play as a Par 71 rather than a Par 72, although the course resumed its normal time slot again as the Wells Fargo Championship in May. This means that while there is a fair amount of course history available to us this week, everything before last year will be slightly misleading given some of the changes and when the event is being held. Focus a little more on the 2018 iteration and years prior to the PGA Championship to a lesser extent in trying to determine how experience will play a role this week.
Quail Hollow is a Par 71 that plays at nearly 7,600 yards with three Par 5 holes, two of which would be considered scoring holes. Of the four Par 3 holes, three of them are longer than 200 yards with the 249 yard, 6th hole being particularly grueling. As mentioned, most of the Par 4 holes are on the long side, however, the 8th and the 14th are both just under 350 yards so there are a couple of key scoring opportunities out there for players. Water is in play on six of the holes and the Bermuda grass greens are all well guarded by bunkers. The greens play fast and this is one of the courses that always leads the tour each year in terms of putts missed from inside of ten feet. This should help to neutralize putting to some extent, but like Augusta, lag putting will still be very important in making sure players leave themselves close to the hole so they do not have to worry about too many 4-6 footers.
We are looking for golfers who are long off the tee this week. Driving Distance will be a key determinant for success this week as well as strong mid to long range iron play. If you are looking at a true bomber that averages over 300 yards off the tee, then you will want to focus on approach distance of 150-175 yards and 175-200 yards. If you are looking at some of the shorter hitters, then bump that up to 175-200 yards and over 200 yards. I want players that have a strong short game, this week as well. You can win here without it, but I like to have golfers that can get out of trouble when need be and not make a bad situation worse. It is part of the reason why players like Phil Mickelson, Jason Day and Rickie Fowler have been so successful here over the years. You do not need to make a ton of birdies, but those par saves add up. I would anticipate that the winning score comes in somewhere around -12 to -15, so it should not be as tough as 2017, but still an interesting challenge for the week. The cut most likely will be above par as well and it would not surprise me to see it at +3/+4 so try not to panic if your golfers come out of the gates with a couple of bogeys.
Key Stats
Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 30%
Birdie or Better Percentage: 20%
Strokes Gained Putting: 20%
Scrambling: 10%
Strokes Gained Off the Tee: 10%
Driving Distance: 5%
Par 5 Scoring: 5%
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