The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – Wells Fargo Championship
Did everyone enjoy the nicely placed bye week in the middle of the season? I know that many of you gave the European Tour event a shot last week and if that was the case, you probably had a good deal of success as the model, combined with the columns from Erik, Pari and Jeff all helped to guide you to the players that excelled for the week in China. Alexander Levy, Dylan Frittelli, Bernd Wiesberger, Ross Fisher, George Coetzee and Jorge Campillo all finished in the Top-10, with Levy winning the tournament and all of these players were near the top of the model for the week.
The European Tour can be a little tricky on the nerves with the cut line coming in at the Top-65 and ties which does not sound like a big difference from PGA, but it makes getting six through the cut that much more difficult from week to week during the season. The European Tour should be a little easier from week to week moving forward in terms of its schedule as it shifts back to…get ready for this….Europe for the next few months! For those who are unfamiliar, the early portion of the season makes stops in South Africa, India and China among other exotic locations throughout the world making it more of a worldwide tour, but now the travel schedule should be much easier as outside of a random event in Fiji in the middle of August, the tour will bounce from country to country inside Europe until the middle of the fall. This should make the timing around lineup lock more manageable each Wednesday night at around midnight, give or take a few hours. If you have yet to check it out, now is a great time to start as the fields should be more familiar to you in the months ahead and you will also get a nice head start on getting to know some of the names that are going to be available for WGC and major tournaments this summer.
Many of you even took your first shot at playing in the weekend edition of the tournament last week with good results. I have to say, I really feel good about the model that we have put together to help us gain an edge over our competition. I have not seen much yet on the market in terms of really attacking the weekend events, but I think the way we are weighting the numbers and the way that we have put together for using the odds over the weekend will continue to give us a significant advantage over the rest of the field. You can play a good mix of cash games and GPP contests each week. I have found that the lineups that I play are fairly similar across the board and most tend to finish in the top half. For GPP’s, it can be a little tricky to win as there is very little that separates a good score from an elite score. You really cannot miss on anyone who has a big weekend and hope to make up the difference, but you should find yourself more often than not, in a competitive position if you are using the information properly.
Now that we are back to having a regular PGA event this week, I know that you are all excited to get your money into play again, but let me caution you that this week might be a good week to take things a little easier on your bankroll. There are three big reasons to consider this week when it comes down to putting your money in play. The first thing that should be considered is the weather. Everything that I am looking at right now seems to indicate that there is going to be some really tough weather to deal with throughout the weekend. Currently, the forecast shows the winds to be gusty for most of Thursday, all day Friday and all day Saturday with the gusts ranging from 20-28 mph. Right now, there looks to be a small window between 8-11 AM on Thursday where there is not supposed to be a gust, so Thursday AM tee times appear to be the way to go this week, but even those players are going to be forced to deal with really nasty winds on Friday afternoon (or Saturday morning if storms wash out Friday) so poor wind players who survive Thursday could easily still get wiped out before the cut if conditions end up as expected. Be sure to get a thorough weather check on Wednesday night/Thursday morning. The winds could very well end up gusting all day on both days so if that is the case, do not hurt yourself by throwing out Thursday afternoon tee times. As of now, I will be building a good chunk of GPP teams as AM/PM, a tiny amount PM/AM to be contrarian and the rest a mix of all players that I like this week.
The second factor to consider this week is that this is a course that has not hosted a tournament in recent years and no player will have played it as set up for competition, although Webb Simpson and Carl Petterson are both members here giving them at least some small advantage. We really do not know how players are going to score for the week. I have read that the course could be compared to Augusta, but I am also hearing that the greens are not going to play as fast as anticipated. The rough is also shorter than expected and it sounds like the fairways are relatively easy to hit. That said, I am not certain about what the winning score will be for the week. The previous course host, Quail Hollow, played really tough each year which leads me to believe that those in charge of Eagle Point would want it to play in a similar manner. If that were the case, it would make selecting our players a much different process than if this becomes a birdie fest with scores reaching the high teens. We just will not know how it is going to play out until the players are on the course playing competitive rounds.
Finally, the last factor to consider is that next week is The Players Championship, the unofficial 5th major of the year. It is a huge event where all of the top golfers in the world show up to compete and is always targeted as one of the more prestigious events that a player can win. With this in mind, many of the better players in the world will skip this event to rest up for next week. Other players will use this event as a sort of tuneup to prepare for next week.
Dustin Johnson has been off since winning the Match Play event near the end of March. He returns this week after suffering a back injury at Augusta that forced him to withdraw before teeing off. Obviously, there are some questions about his recovery, but even if he is fully recovered, there is a very good chance that DJ uses this week as a warm up for next week. If things tighten up at all, he is not going to press his back for such a minor event. We have also seen him withdraw before a major in recent years so we know he is capable of making that play. Now, this could provide a great contrarian play for GPP events and I think DJ will have plenty of owners, but there is uncertainty here. The same can be said for the rest of the field. With weather threatening to push the tournament back to a potential Monday finish, are the top players going to be focused here or might we see something on a smaller scale to what took place in Houston before The Masters. Obviously, The Players Championship does not hold the same mystique as Augusta, but it is something to consider.
Now that I have done my best to give you the reasons as to why you should be cautious, you should also realize that with uncertainty, there is also opportunity. Your opponents are dealing with the same mysteries that you are this week. Stay ahead of the weather. Study the course layout. Make solid decisions in selecting your players this week and have some conviction in who you decide to use in your core and who you decide to fade based upon game theory. If there is a weak to gain an edge, this is it. Just like certain golfers are going to overlook this event, there are going to be plenty of owners who are more interested in next week and will be on autopilot this week.
In looking at the course this week, those who have previously written it up here in their previews have compared Eagle Point with Augusta National, although the greens are not going to be nearly as tricky. The course is 7,400 yards and a Par 72 with four Par 5’s and four Par 3 holes. There is water that will come into play on six of the holes. Distance off the tee will be important as many of the Par 4 holes are over 440 yards. Three of the Par 5 holes are potentially reachable in two shots, but the winds may hamper those efforts. The final Par 5 hole is 640 yards and out of reach for even the biggest of hitters. Much like Augusta, the tee shot will not be the tough part this week, and the bombers should be able to capitalize, but the elevation changes approaching the greens will make approach shots much more important than normal. For an excellent and well detailed report on the course, be sure to check out The First Tee from Adam Daly. His course descriptions are as good as it gets so be sure to start your course research each week right there.
The key stats for the week from our friends at Fantasy Golf Metrics are as follows:
Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 35%
Strokes Gained Putting: 20%
Birdie or Better Percentage: 20%
Par 5 Scoring: 15%
Scrambling: 5%
Proximity 150-175: 5%
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