The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview Wells Fargo Championship

The Players Championship is over and we’re moving on to the Wells Fargo Championship this week. Last week proved to be a bit of a struggle as many players missed the cut that surprised us. Had the leaderboard been turned upside down after the cut, it would have made just about as much sense as what we witnessed at the cut. So many quality players missed the cut like Jason Day, Jimmy Walker, and Jordan Spieth, that we had a tough time analyzing just what one factor held certain players back from success.

It seemed like tournament history was not the best indicator for success or failure last week. Many players who had previously been successful crumbled last week, while players that had erratic histories excelled. Rickie Fowler played the about as well as you will ever see on the last nine holes Sunday as well as in the playoff holes. However, in four of his previous five starts at The Players Championship, he had struggled and only had one solid finish to his credit. On the season, Fowler had played below average golf so last weekend’s victory was more than a little surprising. There was no statistic that pointed to him making a successful run and his form was poor for his price. Our avoidance of him had paid off well, but he picked the perfect tournament to rise from the dead and played brilliantly last weekend. It worked perfectly for Fowler owners as he had missed the cut in New Orleans so he was even less attractive than normal, making him a great GPP play. A credit to Fowler is that he is a pure scorer. Unlike a Jim Furyk or a Jamie Donaldson, Fowler puts up birdies and eagles in bunches so that when he is on his game, he tends to put up a lot of points. While inconsistency can take away from a cash game lineup, in Fowlers case, this is perfect for GPP play where risk taking is rewarded when looking for a high finish.

Much the same can be said for one of our favorite picks last week in Brooks Koepka. Outside of Fowler, Koepka played some of the most impressive golf of the weekend. He notched 11 birdies and 2 eagles in just two rounds of golf. The only problem was that on the 17th and 18th hole of his opening round, he hit back to back quadruple bogeys to effectively put himself out of the running to make the cut. He valiantly battled back on Thursday and Friday to gain back most of the strokes he lost, but still finished one shot off the cut on Friday. We will never regret taking a shot with players like Koepka in tournaments where they have the potential to put a lot of points on the board. In just two rounds, Koepka managed to put up 50.5 points which set an amazing pace for a player who did not even make the cut. Given another two rounds, Koepka may have been the highest scoring player of the tournament. Unfortunately, with Koepka, there is always the chance that things will blow up and this happened in an amazing way this past week as he managed to hit back to back quadruple bogeys on 17 and 18 Thursday morning. Will that stop us from rostering Koepka in the future? Absolutely not. Like Fowler, Koepka is a scoring machine and actually managed to make a meaningful contribution even with only two rounds played last week. He is going to be a player that will break our hearts from time to time, but we also know that he has the potential to put up a lot of points without even winning an event which makes him a great player to look at from week to week. Think about this, Jim Furyk played four rounds last week and scored 53 points and was much more expensive than Koepka.

We will not discuss Spieth, Walker and day missing the cut. Trying to guess that all three of these players would miss the cut would be a waste of time. Day shot a 69 to open the event and then blew up and put an 81 on the board on Friday. It was a bad day and out of character for a player with his skill set. Spieth and Walker have each also been great all year so there is little point in recapping their missed opportunities here. Each had done well previously and just had a rough round that put them out of the mix. With a course as tough as the TPC Sawgrass, this is bound to happen. This year proved to be an extreme case. In all, we suffered a disappointing week with three of our players missing the cut by one stroke and a few that had previously performed well, not playing well and missing the cut. In looking at the field, many owners suffered through similar frustrations as few managed to get even 5 players through the cut.

The frustrating part of last week was that by Saturday, much of what we predicted came true. Those players that struggle with their putters had a rough day. Dustin Johnson, Vijay Singh, Webb Simpson, Scott Stallings and several others crumbled on Day 3 and fell well out of contention. It was a small victory for us, but not one that we were able to profit from, thus leaving us a bit frustrated, but not too discouraged. Fantasy golf is a game with a lot more variance than many of the other fantasy sports out there so if we look at it from the perspective of one week, it can be tough to stomach, but when we stick with the research that we do week in and week out, we know that over the long haul, with proper game selection and bankroll management, we will be successful.

This week, we move on to Quail Hollow. It is a gorgeous, 7440 yard course that plays as a Par 72. Given its length, we are going to be looking for players that can hit the ball for distance off the tee. However, as is usually the case, distance is not the end all be all. We want players with a little bit of accuracy and also players who will hit greens. Therefore, we want to look at ball strikers this week who will give us the best of all worlds in regards to length, accuracy and greens in regulation. Given its length, it is tempting to simply look at Par 5 scoring to see which big hitters have the edge. However, in examining the stats, it appears that Par 4 scoring factors in just as much so we will use a mix of each in evaluating players. Putting is also a key factor at Quail Hollow so strokes gained putting will again be an important number for us to look at. Finally, as always, course history and current form will be factors in evaluating players this week. There are a couple of players that always seem to perform well here, but there are also a few others that have been playing well and who have made strides with their play here in the last few years.

As always, please let us know when you are doing well and also if you are struggling. We are here to work with our members to make sure that everyone is achieving successful results so do not hesitate to get in touch. We ALWAYS answer our e-mails and tweets as soon as possible so know that you will get a quick response when you reach out to us. We win when you win so let’s get this done together!

An rule that I follow almost every week is that I do not pay up very often for the most expensive players. This week will be no different in that I am not going to own Rory McIlroy on my teams. I love Rory and he has a great chance of doing well this week. That said, unless he wins the tournament, it is going to be nearly impossible for him to deliver value for your team this week. This of it this way, what is more likely, Russell Knox (priced at $7500) scoring 75 points, or Rory McIlroy (priced at $14,000) scoring 140 points? It’s a simple example, but one that you should really take to heart when building your rosters. You need to start thinking of what you are spending per point each week. With a $14,000 salary, it is virtually impossible for a player to make value for a team in a given week. Yes, these players will win a couple of tournaments each year. However, it is going to be rare that having this player on your roster will be essential in winning a GPP. In selecting a player at this price, it just puts too much pressure on the rest of your roster to perform. This week, there are very few players below $7000 that are at all attractive so we would advise being cautious and avoiding Rory this week and building your roster around the middle tier players.

The pricing for this week also is worth mentioning before we get to our selections for the week. DraftKings appears to have selected some of its prices by blindly throwing darts this week. We cannot conceive of any model that would have Mike Weir (2 of 13 cuts made this season) priced at $7600. This is hardly the only anomaly for the week. Please be sure to check the odds versus pricing page as once again, there are some huge differences between the way DraftKings sees things and the way Vegas has priced them out. Take advantage of these numbers in building your rosters. It will not always work out, but it is probably the best way that you are able to add value to your teams from week to week.

BLUE CHIPS

Phil Mickelson – A rarely mentioned name here at The Daily Spin, we think that Phil is well positioned for a good week. He plays this course amazingly well and has never missed the cut here. His stats for the year are a little choppy, but we should note that Phil typically only plays in the tougher events on tour so that with a limited schedule, his stats for the year are a little skewed. Up until The Players Championship, Phil had been playing pretty well. We hope that the missed cut last week will scare a few owners away and give us the chance to pounce on a player that should be strong. We think he will play well in cash and GPP games this week.

Jim Furyk – Furyk, like Mickelson, has a great track record at Quail Hollow and has five Top 10 finishes to his name. He’ll need another high finish to deliver value for the week. Furyk has been the king of par golf this season so that even if he makes the cut, he is far from guaranteed to score many points for your team. However, we cannot ignore his consistency so we think the risk is worth it this week. In his last 6 starts here, his lowest finish is 26th. He’s a good ball striker that scrambles well and is always in position to make some birdies. Now he just needs to make a few putts for us this week. He has a win this year and ownership levels should not be too high after an average performance last weekend. Furyk is a safe play for cash games this week as we have a hard time believing that he could miss the cut. His upside potential may be a bit limited for GPP play this week given his propensity for shooting par and not scoring as much this season.

Hideki Matsuyama – He started off strong last week before tapering a bit on the second and third day of the tournament. Overall, he played reasonably well and finished in 17th place…not great, not bad. He is set up for this course as he is a great ball striker (3rd), 2nd in Par 4 scoring, 10th in scrambling and 23rd in Par 5 scoring. He does struggle a bit with his putter, but he is certainly a threat to win here this week. He took 38th in his first start here and should improve on that this time around.

VALUE PLAYS

Webb Simpson – Simpson is playing solid golf this season. He has not put up any real memorable performances, but he does have three Top 10 finishes and has only missed the cut once in ten starts. He has made the cut here in four straight appearances and does have a Top 10 finish to his credit. He stands out in ball striking and Par 5 scoring. Outside of putting, he ranks well in the stats we looked at this week. He is not cheap, but think his floor is high enough for cash games and some exposure in GPPs.

Daniel Berger – Top rookie Daniel Berger blew the cut by a stroke last weekend and has been alternating between great and awful finishes from week to week. It is his week for another big finish. Berger is a GPP play for us this week as his volatility keeps him off of our cash game rosters, but makes him dynamite for GPP teams when he is on his game. Berger ranks 8th in ball striking, 15th in Par 5 scoring, 29th in Par 4 scoring, 43rd in scrambling and is just average with his putter. He is a rookie here, but his game fits the course well. Just do not get cute thinking you can count on him to make the cut every week. He is best used in a handful of GPP lineups to help provide upside.

Justin Thomas – A very similar player to Berger, Thomas is having a fine rookie campaign and has done everything but win an event this season. This could be the week he breaks through. We like Thomas a little better than Berger as the buzz around Berger seems to be near a fever pitch. You can get virtually the same player in Thomas at basically the same price. Thomas is not quite the ball striker that Berger is, but putts better and is even a little better on Par 5’s. Outside of the Valero Open (which we can ignore due to extreme weather), Thomas has been in good form. We like him for GPP and cash game play this week.

Patrick Reed – This sleeping giant is about to wake up. He has been a bit quiet over the last couple of months, but this is a tournament where he will contend. He has two consecutive 32nd place finishes here, but should be ready to take it up a notch this year. He is not a strong ball striker, but is a stud in all other categories as he putts well, scores well on Par 4 and 5’s and is an excellent scrambler. He does not come cheap this week, but with his high floor and high potential ceiling, he plays well in both cash and GPP formats this week.

Hunter Mahan – No, that is not a misprint, we are actually recommending Mahan this week. He has not produced much in terms of results this year, but he is a relatively steady player from week to week. Coming off of his first missed cut of the year, we think this is a great week to pick him up when he falls off of everyone else’s radars. He has not been special here over the last three years, but in the previous four years, he finished no lower than 22nd. He should at worst make the cut so he fits well for cash games. We think he will only be owned by a moderate amount of the field so that there is some GPP value as well. His numbers are solid. He is 19th in ball striking, 41st in putting, 9th in Par 4 scoring, but only 88th in Par 5 scoring. We want some consistency this week and Mahan should provide that for us.

Ryan Moore – He blew the cut on his last hole last week and that helped ruin a lot of rosters for the week. Prepare for him to be highly owned again this week as his last few finishes here have been strong. Hopefully, owners are a little scared off by the missed cut and stay away, but we can envision another week of 20-25% ownership for Moore. Moore does not stand out in any statistical category this week, but also is not week in any area. His steady game should make him a gooc cut maker with upside for the week. He is a good play for cash games and some exposure in GPP play.

Shawn Stefani – A disappointment last week, we expect Stefani to bounce back this week. He has two solid finishes here. His game plays well for the course as he ranks 20th in ball striking, 19th in Par 5 scoring, 43rd in Par 4 scoring and and 51st in putting. He looks like a Top 25 player this week. We think the missed cut provides us with a nice opportunity to pick him up for GPP and cash games.

SLEEPERS

Jason Kokrak – Quick question, who would you rather own this week: Jason Kokrak or Jim Renner? Hopefully, that did not take long to answer considering that Renner has made just 3 of 17 cuts this year. Interestingly enough, Kokrak and Renner are the SAME PRICE this week. Kokrak ranks 66th in ball striking and 61st in putting, but scores well. He ranks 29th in Par 4 scoring and 8th in Par 5 scoring. He also scrambles well (41st) so should be able to work his way out of trouble. He has shown improvement in each appearance working his way up to a 23rd place finish last year.

Pat Perez – How excited are you to see Pat Perez back on our list this week? Typically, just a strong early season player, Perez is having a decent year so far. He lack many Top 10 finishes, but seems to find himself between 20th to 30th place more often than not, which is perfect for his price as he is grossly underpriced in comparison to the Vegas odds this week. Perez is an average ball striker (88th), but putts well (33rd). He is 17th in Par 4 scoring, but not great on Par 5’s (109th). He is typically a middle of the pack player here and works well on GPP teams this week.

Brandon de Jonge – While de Jonge did not have a great finish last week, he made the cut, which was more than enough to make value for his price last week. Tossing out the Valero Open due to extreme weather, de Jonge has been one of the most consistent players over the last few months. He is a good ball stiker (37th) and an average putter (74th). He has made the cut here six straight times and has two Top 10 finishes. He is a bargain for his price and we like him in both cash games and GPP contests this week.

Kevin Streelman – Streelman is another player that is priced well below where his odds have him this week. We like Streelman as we found him a little lower on the tournament history page. He missed the cut three times in a row many years back, but has since rallied finishing 6th in 2013 and 14th in 2014. He has not been great this year, but did look good at The Masters last month and made the cut at The RBC Heritage before missing the cut last week. We did not find a lot of players below $7000 that we could stomach so we think Streelman is a reasonable play here. He is an above average ball striker (15th) although he has not putted well this year at all (141st). He ranks 9th in Par 4 scoring, but 109th in Par 5 scoring, so we have a bit of a mixed bag to work with. We will use Streelman for GPP games this week.

Well, that is it for the week. Last week is now behind us and we are ready to win this week. Good luck in building your rosters and as always, get in touch with us with any questions or concerns that come up.

Good Luck,

Myzteriouzly