The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – Waste Management Phoenix Open
Welcome back this week…to me after enjoying a beautiful weekend down in San Diego for The Farmers Insurance Open. After watching a gorgeous sunset on Saturday afternoon with a great group of friends and getting the chance to stroll along the course at Torrey Pines for a few days, I am not exactly sure why I would ever leave that beautiful city, but for now, I must grind through many more brutal winters until I can make my escape.
It was quite the weekend for DFS golf with perpetual favorite, Jon Rahm taking down his first title in dramatic fashion on Sunday after nailing a 60 foot birdie putt to put himself out of reach from his closest competitors. The other big story for the weekend was the lack of great play from some of the highest ranked golfers in the world. Tiger Woods continued to be a curse to those sharing a tee time with him as both he, Jason Day and Dustin Johnson all missed the cut and really never looked good at any point in the two rounds that they played. Obviously, weather conditions were not optimal for the first couple of rounds with the winds picking up dramatically on Friday. However, these three were set up perfectly as they played the more difficult South Course on Thursday and the less demanding North Course on Friday. I have never seen Jason Day get the yips before, but watching him blow one short putt after another on Thursday was truly unbearable. At least for DJ, he can lay claim to the fact that he was travelling twelve time zones from the previous weekend to play at the event, something that both he and Rickie Fowler might want to refrain from if this is an event they both want to continue to play in the years ahead.
I had a lot of fun following around various groups of golfers over the weekend. On Thursday, my dad and I were walking the course and headed back to the military tent (was free for all active duty and former military that day) when we found ourselves stopped along the cart path next to the fairway on the 14th hole. The crowd had closed in front of us and we could not figure out what was going on. I then glimpsed a player’s bag in front of us and thought, okay, it looks like Stuart Appleby went a little right here…not sure where he is shooting from, but I guess we better stop here. All of a sudden, one of the officials is yelling at the two of us to move. I was trying to figure out what was going on as I started to move to the left and then noticed about 15 feet away was Marc Leishman, who had gone way right off the tee, staring down at his ball that was buried under a small branch. Whoops. We moved quickly and actually got a few great pictures that I tweeted out last week.
The Farmers was a lot of fun to attend and I would highly recommend it to anyone who is a golf fan. The courses are beautiful and the sight lines are amazing. It just does not get a lot better than the ocean views around each course. The number of fans on the course is manageable and as long as you do not feel compelled to follow the featured group around, you can get close to almost any player you want to watch. On Friday, I spent the morning tagging along with CHIII, Pat Perez and Hudson Swafford. My curse thrived that day as I helped to end Swafford’s cut streak at 19 after a dismal performance where I really got a chance to see some of the weaker parts of his game showcased. If he is not hitting greens, he is in huge trouble as his wedge game is really rough. Overall, though, it was a great time and I always enjoy seeing how players handle the highs and lows of a round as well as the way they interact among the rest of the group.
While The Farmers is always a fun event, few if any events all season can match the energy of the Waste Management Phoenix Open, held this weekend at TPC Scottsdale. If this is your first year following the PGA, you are in for a real treat this week as the 16th hole here is one of the best experiences you will witness all season. The hole is played in a small stadium where fans are allowed to lose their minds like extras on the set of Happy Gilmore. If you hit the green, cheers will erupt from the crowd. If you miss the green, prepare to be showered by playful booing. It’s also fun when players like Bubba Watson say something dumb about the course or the event. These fans will never let him live his remarks down again. The television coverage of the hole is always great as they do a good job of trying to capture the experience as many times as possible. Hopefully, we’ll get another moment like this.
Beyond the 16th hole, we have a great field this week with a lot of big names in the tournament. DraftKings has put together a lot of interesting GPP contests for the week to entice DFS players to try their hand at golf. Last week, all of the events filled easily and I expect the same thing to happen again this week as golf continues to soar in popularity. With the Super Bowl finishing up the weekend on Sunday night, this is one of my favorite sports weekends of the year. I just wish I could say the same about the rest of February which always manages to feel like the longest month of the year despite having the fewest days.
The pricing this week needs to be discussed upfront. DK made things really soft this week with salaries. Part of that is to help newer players out, but part of it just appears to be almost a mistake in some sense as certain players are so much lower than could ever reasonably be expected. Adjust to this accordingly. Do not try to get too fancy with your cash game lineups. You do not need to dig deep this week and doing so will probably be to your detriment. In terms of aggregate ownership in GPP events, expect the winning rosters to have higher numbers than normal this week if the chalk plays do anything at all. If you are in the $3 GPP, it would not surprise me at all to see a winning roster with an AE of 90% or even higher. Be mindful of the fact that it is still acceptable to be contrarian this week, you just do not need to dive to the same depth as in most other weeks in order to achieve your diversification goals.
The course itself, TPC Scottsdale, is a Par 71 course that plays at just over 7,200 yards. The final four holes are an adrenaline rush with a Par 5 on 15 that allows for scoring opportunities, the stadium on 16, a short Par 4 on 17 and a Par 4 finish on 18, players will be looking to get aggressive, leading to some exciting finishes come Sunday afternoon. It is a more open course than last week at Torrey Pines where the rough was so thick that players missing fairways were in much more trouble than normal. At TPC Scottsdale, the penalties for missing off the tee are not nearly as bad as other courses which is why this does tend to be a more bomber friendly course where a player like Bubba Watson usually has great results. However, there is also a good amount of water and bunkers around the course so careful navigation and the ability to scramble and putt can also be an approach to success. The scores here will go pretty low so taking full advantage of scoring opportunities is very important. While many players will not hit fairways, they will need to be good with their mid to long range irons in order to set themselves up for birdie opportunities.
Our key stats for the week are as follows:
Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 30%
Strokes Gained Putting: 25%
Birdie or Better Percentage: 20%
Par 5 Scoring: 10%
Par 4 Scoring: 10%
Prox over 200: 5%
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