The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – Valspar Championship
The Players Championship again proved to be a voodoo curse to me in terms of DFS play last week as I recorded a loss after several key players that I had exposure to melted down and missed the cut in excruciating fashion. TPC Sawgrass is always a challenging course for players although this particular year, weather did not play much of a roll, if any at all and it turned out that it was much more open to the bombers than in years when it took place in May. That does not help us in understanding why certain players we owned missed the cut, but as we discussed, the course did play a little differently than what would normally be expected.
I had a bad feeling that things were going to turn on us early when Paul Casey stepped up to the 17th hole on Thursday and promptly dunked two balls into the water on consecutive tee shots. You hate to see it…or so the newly popular Twitter line goes. When things like that happen to players like Paul Casey, it is no surprise that he wilted immediately, played out his two rounds without much of a fight and tucked his tail between his legs and headed for Tampa on Saturday. At the time, I thought to myself, well, at least I did not own him in my cash lineup so perhaps this can end up working to my advantage. Nope.
Patrick Cantlay is another golfer that rarely misses the cut. In 43 starts coming into last week going back to the beginning of 2017, Cantlay had missed the cut only three times. Now that number is up to four after two rollercoaster rounds last week. He notched three double bogeys on Thursday to put himself into trouble. Just when it looked like he might climb his way out on Friday, he chipped the ball into the water on the easy Par 5, 16th hole for another double bogey and just could not fight back again. He played the Par 5s at even par for the week, which is really poor considering they are the easiest holes on the course. What was really painful was that he made a lot of birdies on non-scoring holes in both rounds, but made too many mistakes to survive. I would pick Cantlay 100 times out of 100 on that course with his skills and at that price so while it hurt us, I have no problem with the play.
Rafa Cabrera Bello started out Thursday with back to back birdies and then shot +11 over his next 30 holes. It was another case where TPC Sawgrass nailed him with an ugly double bogey on the 7th hole and the momentum just kept going downhill from there. He was done for after the first round and really never had a chance on Friday. At his price of 7400 and coming off of a 3rd place finish the week prior along with a bunch of Top-25 finishes on the season, he was an automatic cash game lock. Again, a poor performance, but certainly not a decision I regret.
I still felt like I had life in my cash game on Friday if I could only get 4/6 through the cut and on to the weekend. When Xander started out -2 after his first round, it looked like it would be possible. Unfortunately, the X man gave me the performance I am so used to when I roster more than a few shares and the putter that had been so hot all season went ice cold and he missed a 3 foot putt followed by a 4 footer on the next hole on the back nine Friday en route to missing the cut right on the line. It was a frustrating performance for the former FedEx Cup point leader (overtaken by Rory now) as he has been very consistent to start the year, but had an off week for us when we really needed him to play well.
It’s unfortunate that those four players missed the cut. I had a lot of Rory and DJ exposure at the top along with Tommy Fleetwood, Hideki and even a bit of Jim Furyk. With the four above, however, I could only get a couple of teams to the weekend fully intact which meant that it turned into a losing week. It is not a shock that this particular tournament did not work out, but even still, when you look at the four names that missed the cut, it does feel surprising given how well each of those players has performed this year, how well they each fit the course and the fact that each has played well at TPC Sawgrass over the years.
Moving on to the week ahead, we arrive in Tampa for the Valspar Championship this week. Normally, this is an event that I look forward to as it is played on a challenging course, but this year, it has been moved around in the schedule in such a manner so that it has turned into a filler event. With the Players last week and the Match Play next week and with Augusta coming up soon, this naturally became a rest week for most of the top players so guys like Rory, Spieth, Kuchar, Bryson, Rose, Scott, Finau and Tiger all elected to take a pass this year.
What this means for us as we approach the event is that we need to reevaluate our bankroll exposure for the week. For me, that will mean being very limited in my cash games this week. I’ll be out there in the $250 if you want to track me, but probably will not play much more cash beyond that. With pricing pressure coming from the bottom, we get a lot more questionable names pushed up this week and there are not too many obvious value plays in the lower range which means that you either get forced into a very balanced lineup (likely for me) or you throw caution to the wind and throw a couple of darts at the bottom knowing that if you can squeeze a top finish out of a stud that it could carry a 4/6 team into the money.
Copperhead is one of the most challenging courses that we will see all year on tour. It plays at around 7300 yards and is a very non-standard, Par 71 with five Par 3s and four Par 5s. The fairways are as narrow as we will see all year and lined by trees. The Par 5 holes play to the long side and are not obvious scoring opportunities. The rough is thick and punitive and there is water on many of the holes. The greens are small and are Bermuda grass which will play fast and if the winds pick up at all, it will make scoring even more difficult than normal as that is a common defense here. Obviously, this is another course where players will leave driver in the bag to club down which leads to the increased importance of iron play, particular long play, especially on the longer Par 4 and 5 holes. This is a course where the top talent can shine with all the challenges that lesser players will struggle with and also a spot where those players who avoid mistakes can stay in contention.
Key Stats
Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 30%
Strokes Gained Putting: 20%
Birdie or Better Percentage: 17.5%
Proximity: 10%
Scrambling: 10%
Prox 175-200: 7.5%
Driving Accuracy: 5%
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