The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – Valero Texas Open

Paul Casey reared his ugly head on the 18th hole last Friday and blew a putt from inside of 5 feet to miss the cut. A part of me believes that this was his way of withdrawing without actually having to withdraw. It was a disappointing 10 minutes stretch that saw Casey choke away his weekend and Matthew Fitzpatrick shoot +3 over the last five holes to bomb out and inexplicably miss the cut. It turned an 80% success rate for the picks into a 70% success rate, which is okay, but not amazing. Fantasy golf finds the most cruel and unusual ways to break our hearts on Fridays. Between Casey missing the cut and Snedeker struggling, it was tough at the top for a second week in row. However, we cannot let recency bias dominate our thoughts the way it does for so many fantasy owners from week to week. Even the top player in the world, Jason Day is not immune to having an off the charts awful round from time to time as he did on Saturday when he posted a 79, the fourth worst round of his career.

That is how thin the margin can be between an okay week and a great week. That is one of the biggest reasons why we advocate bankroll management and growing it through cash games rather in trying to take shots at the big GPP prizes with the majority of your action each week. In order to have a big week in a GPP event, everything has to go almost perfectly to be profitable. You need to pick the winner. You need to get six players through the cut and you need to have your supporting players hang in there well enough not to drag the rest of your team down.

A lot of subscribers understand the basics of how to select which players to use each week for GPPs, but are having trouble when it comes to constructing rosters and setting weightings for the players that they use. One of the best ways to help yourself out is to use a lineup builder each week where you can set the weightings for how much you want to use each player. I was fortunate enough to discover a site recently that has a nice lineup builder available. The Fantasy Fanatics (www.thefantasyfanatics.com) have a lineup builder that allows you select which players you want to use and how much you want to weight each one. It will require a little bit of time and patience to learn and use, but for weeks when you want to build 50, 100 or even 200 lineups, this is an indispensable tool that will save you hours of work. You do need to make the total weighting and total salary line up pretty closely, but once you get the hang of it, it will save you a lot of time and you can then download the lineups directly to DraftKings to use for contests. They also have a lot of great data on the site for free about ownership trends once the events have started so check it out.

The real key for GPP lineups is not just in picking one or two players that everyone else overlooks, but in making sure that particular players gets into enough of your lineups to have a chance at making a meaningful difference for the week. If you built 200 lineups last week and put Branden Grace on one just to have some exposure to him, it probably did very little good as your odds that the one lineup he was on being perfect were slim. Give yourself a real chance with each player you select and go no lower than a 5% weighting if you are doing 50 or more lineups.

The next real key to success in having heavily concentrated levels of ownership around a few players each week. Find 4-6 core players total, making sure to pick from each salary range, and go big for your ownership percentage. GPPs are mostly boom or bust when it comes to making or losing money, so be all in on your top picks. If you track some of the best players in the game like the former maxdalary, jetblackx or AshyL4rry, you will notice that they make big bets for their top players each week and if their core hits, they have a lot of chances to win the big contests. That is really what you want to do when attacking GPPs. It should be like shooting a gun; aim small, miss small. Be precise on the players you choose and stay focused on the weightings. I have my own spreadsheet on Excel that I use for this, but Roger Casey has a really nice template so hit him up on Twitter and maybe if he is in a good mood, he’ll share it with you. If you keep yourself organized, your process will improve and your results will follow. Too many times, people are just randomly shotgunning their lineups and then cannot figure out why they are struggling.

This week, the tour heads back to San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open. The event has been played here since 2010 so you should only be using the last 6 years of course history as a guideline. Perhaps, even more importantly, if you remember back to a year ago, the weather played a huge roll in who made or missed the cut with howling winds during the morning on Thursday creating a four shot differential on average between AM and PM tee times. If you notice that a player missed the cut here last year that lined up well statistically, it is likely that they teed off Thursday morning and had such a poor first round that it made the event unrecoverable going into Friday.

The course breaks down as follows:
Par 72
Length 7,435 yards
Four Par 5 and Four Par 3 holes

The fairways are relatively narrow here and there are plenty of bunkers and some nasty brush that has snared a few players over the years. When looking back at the players who have excelled here, it is a real mix of skill sets. There are bombers who are not the least bit accurate that have fared well, but there are also some short hitters who struggle from tee to green, but scramble and putt really well. We will use a mix of current season stats (with a small percentage of 2015 weighted in as well), current form, course history and Vegas Odds to rank the field this week. For the key stats this week, the Fantasy Golf Metrics guys ran a regression over the last six years and came up with the following:

Strokes Gained Tee to Green – 35%
Strokes Gained Putting – 25%
Par 5 Scoring – 15%
Birdie or Better % – 15%
Scrambling – 10%

Good luck this week and be sure to let us know if you have any teams in contention late into the weekend so we can have some fun cheering you on!

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Sean O’Hair clipped the wings of one of our optimal lineups last week along with Brandt Snedeker, but the other lineup managed to pull through for the week to keep us even for our cash game lineups. This week we face a tricky challenge as the field is much weaker than normal. While there are plenty of high quality players at the top range, the middle tier is weaker and there are slim pickings among the sleepers this week. This is usually a sign to pull back a little bit on your bankroll as ownership will tend to settle around a smaller number of players giving us a little less of an advantage. However, there are just enough players in each salary tier so that I am comfortable with what the model produced for us as the optimal lineup this week:

Matt Kuchar – $10,700
Phil Mickelson – $9,900
William McGirt – $8.200
Aaron Baddeley – $7,400
John Huh – $7,300
Andrew Loupe – $6,500

I don’t mind dropping down to a player like Loupe this week as the $7,000 and below range is pretty undistinguished so knowing that 5/6 through the cut will get the job done, I think dropping down to grab a sleeper pick makes a lot of sense if it helps to strengthen your team at the top. The second lineup that I worked up on my own takes it to the extreme in dropping even lower for a deep sleeper to solidify the rest of the team:

Bryson DeChambeau – $9,800
Charley Hoffman – $9,600
Chris Kirk – $9,000
Freddie Jacobson – $8,100
Chez Reavie – $7,700
Tim Wilkinson – $5,600

This is one of those weeks where the line between cash games and GPP teams is razor thin in terms of being able to use most recommended players in either format. However, even though you can use any recommended player in either format, the does not mean you should now build a cash roster of three players around 10k and three players around 6k. Pick one scrub for your cash game lineups and you will help yourself out…picking three will probably be ineffective.

BLUE CHIPS

Branden Grace ($10,900)
Zach Johnson ($10,800)
Matt Kuchar ($10,700)
Brandt Snedeker ($10,300)
Phil Mickelson ($9,900)

After a slow start to his 2016 season on the PGA Tour, Branden Grace regained the form that brought him so much success on the European Tour and won last weekend at The Heritage, playing an amazing round on Sunday to distance himself from his competitors. Grace went through many of the same challenges a year ago before storming back at The Heritage for a 7th place finish and then a strong summer. He is a solid tee to green player and can putt. When it comes to weather, Grace is another strong option so if the weather does play a roll this week, Grace will be prepared. Grace has just an average track record in San Antonio, but should be able to carry some of the momentum forward so I will use him in some of my GPP lineups this week.

Zach Johnson let folks down at The Masters and people largely ignored him at The Heritage. It almost came back to bite them until he tripped up in his final round and slipped to 33rd place. There is a good chance that Johnson will be lost in the shuffle again this week with some of the bigger names around him. However, Johnson has played well here the last two years and he has shown enough flashes this season that I think he is a worthwhile GPP play this week.

Matt Kuchar continues to be a consistent option from week to week. He was never really in contention last weekend and yet there he was at the end of the tournament with a 9th place finish. With seven Top 25 finishes on the season, Kuchar is still a dependable cut maker with upside, even if that upside does stop a little shorter than previous years. Kuchar plays a balanced game and is solid in all statistical categories this week. He has made the cut in all four starts here and finished in the Top 25 each time. I will own him in cash games and high dollar GPPs that play out similar to cash games, but have less exposure to him in smaller buy in GPPs where you will more than likely need to find the winner.

Brandt Snedeker upset a lot of you last week when he missed the cut at The Heritage. I know because I heard about it…and then yawned. No matter how good a golfer is, he will miss a few cuts every season. It happens. I am over it and you should be as well. This gives us an opportunity to own him this week at an event he should have a chance to do well in while also being underowned as other owners let their recency bias rule their decision making process. He’s good tee to green and can scramble and putt. He placed 4th in his long appearance here back in 2011 and I fully expect him to bounce back into form this week and will own him on GPP rosters.

Phil Mickelson fits into the ‘recently disappointed’ category after an absurd meltdown on the back nine Friday afternoon at Augusta where he missed the cut by a single stroke. Leading up to that point, Phil had been playing really well, better than the last couple of years and looked to be ready to make another charge at Augusta. he fell short, but will bounce back in San Antonio. He withdrew two years ago after making the cut and finished in 30th last year. Not amazing numbers, but in terms of key stats, Phil came out the highest ranked in our model which should help him to make his way back into contention. His price dropped enough to make him a both a cash game and GPP option this week.

UPPER TIER VALUE

Bryson DeChambeau ($9,800)
Charley Hoffman ($9,600)
Chris Kirk ($9,000)
William McGirt ($8,200)
Freddie Jacobson ($8,100)

Bryson DeChambeau’s star is rising even faster than I expected this season. After winning Top Amateur at Augusta, he turned pro and promptly finished in 4th place in his first start. Though the secret is out, DeChambeau looks to be the real deal and his scientific approach to his swing and clubs could revolutionize the game. He finished last week as the top tee to green player and that should help him to do well again this week. He missed a bunch of putts inside of 10 feet which kept him from winning so if he can putt just a little better, he may find a way to win before the end of the season.

In terms of course history, Charley Hoffman is the player to own this week. He has played here six times and finished in the Top 15 all six times. Hoffman has been a threat in the first two to three rounds of several events recently, but has not been able to hold his game together on Sundays. If you look at his stats, he gets worse by the round. However, given his current form and success here, he’s a great option for cash or GPP teams as one of the few players that has been really consistent here over the years.

Chris Kirk looks like a player that is ready to win this year. After getting a win at the Crowne Plaza last year, he was slowed up by injuries that rest of the year. It appears that the injuries are behind him now and over the last six weeks he has started to turn things around with three Top 25 finishes in his last four starts. He finished 8th at Valero a year ago and though his stats are a bit of a mess when looking at the whole season, Kirk looks much closer to the 2014 version of himself in recent events. I like him for both cash and GPP formats this week.

Does anyone else just cringe when they hear the name William McGirt? It is really tough not to when I think about the times he has disappointed me in spectacular fashion. But the 2016 McGirt is nothing like any version of him that we have seen before. In fact, his tee to green game and putting are so solid this year that he is currently ranked 21st overall in total strokes gained. He can scramble, handles the Par 5 holes well and has been making a lot of birdies this year. He is still Dirt McGirt so he is capable of a blowup on any given weekend, but his game is looking good and with limited options in this range and a guy who has made four of five cuts at Valero, he will be a player that I use for cash and GPP events this week.

I am not a big Freddie Jacobson fan. His tee to green game stinks and he is all over the course for most of his rounds. Fortunately, for Freddie, he can scramble and putt and it has served him well at this event. Though he finished in 50th a year ago (Thurs AM tee time), he has finished inside the Top 20 in his other five starts here. He’s been decent overall this season so I feel good about his chances and will use him in all formats this week.

VALUE

Chez Reavie ($7,700)
Si Woo Kim ($7,600)
Kyle Reifers ($7,500)
Aaron Baddeley ($7,400)
John Huh ($7,300)
Patrick Rodgers ($7,300)

Every time I mention Chez Reavie, I have to start the discussion by reminding folks of just how good his game is from tee to green this year versus previous years. That has translated to him having a lot more success on courses where he had previously done nothing. This week will be another good example as he has always struggle here, making just one cut in four starts. I think that will make him a sneaky play. He has missed just two cuts in fourteen starts this year so I am just confident enough to use Reavie in all formats this week.

Si Woo Kim is a cut maker with upside and showed that again last weekend in notching his 8th Top 25 finish of the season. He has a good tee to green game, scrambles well and handles the Par 5 holes well. He has done well in going through most courses for the first time and gives you a chance to get some upside at a good price. I will have Kim in cash and GPP lineups this week.

Most people will struggle to go Kyle Reifers this week after last week, but we will not let one bad week steer us away from him when he has had a nice season overall. In two starts in San Antonio, he has made the cut twice, including and 11th place finish last year. Prior to his missed cut last week he had also made four straight cuts. His stats are not overwhelming, but as a GPP play, people will gloss over him after his missed cut and the upside potential is plenty high to make the risk worthwhile.

Aaron Baddeley has usually burned us when we have looked to him for a good performance, but things do seem to line up this week for him so once again I will take another shot. He has made the cut here in all four starts and finished in the Top 20 on three occasions. He has been particularly good the last few weeks with two Top 10 finishes in his last three events. His game here is similar to that of Freddie Jacobson in that he is a mess off the tee, but can scramble and putt well enough to be productive. He is well priced for both cash and GPP formats this week.

John Huh broke our hearts in Houston with a late meltdown the last time he played, but has still been running well in recent events overall having made the cut in eight of his last ten starts, to include three Top 10s. He has been a good ball striker this year with an improved tee to green game who has also been able to scramble when needed. Huh has made the cut in three of four starts here and is typically a low owned player giving him extra value in GPP events when he plays well.

Patrick Rodgers is our boom or bust player in this range this week. He tends to either be in contention for a Top 20 finish or else he misses that cut, there is not a lot of in between. He is a much better putter on Bermuda grass so he will have that in his favor this week. The other statistical areas should be strong for Rodgers in his debut at the Valero so we should be getting a quality player with upside at a nice price for GPP purposes.

SLEEPERS

Luke List ($7,300)
John Senden ($6,700)
Andrew Loupe ($6,500)
Cameron Percy ($6,400)

Luke List has come to life the last couple of months. He’s big off the tee and a really good tee to green player. His putting had been really bad at the beginning of the year, but has been steadier of late. He can scramble and handles the Par 5’s well so he should be a nice GPP option this week. In his lone start here, he finished in 46th place in 2013. List has also made five of his last six cuts so he has some good momentum.

For whatever reason, the Australians tend to handle the courses in Texas well (Kiwis too). He had a rough first round her a year ago and missed the cut, but made the cut in two other starts here. He shot a blistering -6 this past Sunday to finish 23rd at The Heritage. He has made three of his last four cuts and looks to be trending in the right direction. His stats will not overwhelm you, but he is not really weak in any areas either. He should make for a nice sleeper pick as a guy who few will own in GPPs this week.

Given the lack of talent in the lower range this week, I expect Andrew Loupe to be somewhat more heavily owned than most other players in the 6-7k range this week. He finished in 4th place her two years ago and last year he started the event in the morning on Thursday and carded an 80 in the rough weather so I will overlook his 2015 result. Loupe is big off the tee, but all over from there. Fortunately, he can putt which should save him this week. He also ranks as one of the best Par 5 players on tour as well as birdie or better percentage so I expect Loupe to be a threat this week and will use him in all formats.

If you are looking for a pivot off of Loupe, Cameron Percy is a nice option. He has made three of five cuts on the year, but the finishes where he has made the cut are above average. His course history and low price make him a justifiable GPP play this week as he has made the cut in all three starts while finishing no lower than 37th. Use him as a way to have a low owned sleeper for your GPP events this week.

DEEP SLEEPERS

Brice Garnett ($6,000)
Tim Wilkinson ($5,600)

Brice Garnett ripped Mike Weir on Twitter last week after Weir withdrew after the first round which cost the alternates like Garnett a chance to play at The Heritage. I like that he showed some fire and is eager to play. He’s played well here in two starts finishing 30th and 31st and has had a couple of decent moments early this season. He finished in 26th in his last start at Puerto Rico and if he can make the cut this week, he will easily exceed value for his low price. Garnett is strictly a GPP option this week.

When I looked at stats alone in our model this week, I was surprised to see that Tim Wilkinson was ranked 15th in the field based on the key stats outlined above. He played well in the fall making the cut in all four starts, but is just 2/4 since then. He has only made the cut here once in three tries, but he is so cheap that using him in a cash lineup allows a lot of flexibility with the rest of your lineup so I did throw him onto one roster and a couple of GPP teams.

Good Luck,

-myz
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