The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – US Open
I could not be more excited about a major than I am for the US Open this year. We are really lucky this season to have such an amazing group of courses on the schedule for the major championships. Getting Bethpage and Pebble Beach on the schedule in the same season is really remarkable. Over the last few years, we’ve had a number of courses for the US Open that have not been all that exciting for me as a golf fan. Chambers Bay, Erin Hills and Shinnecock last year were all long, links style courses that were not all that aesthetically pleasing, although I did enjoy Oakmont in 2016. There just is not a lot that I think of when looking back at some of these courses other than that they are all long, challenging layouts where being off the fairway is a nightmare and the greens play tricky. I’m not sure we’ll see Chambers Bay or Erin Hills host this event again.
This year, we get to see the game played on an iconic course where nearly every hole is memorable for its beauty near the ocean. While player complaints about the course setup are common each year, you get the sense that this year you will not hear near the number of complaints as most years. The course might play as hard as these golfers have ever seen it, but there is little that will take away from the gorgeous venue and I doubt that we will hear anyone talk about not wanting to come back in the years ahead when the tournament makes its way back in 2027.
Of course, what makes this event deceptive is that we have seen this course year in and year out as fantasy owners and it is never really a course that plays all that difficult each year. Do not allow yourself to get complacent. The USGA will have this place tuned up just as they always do and by the time the players are getting through the first day, it seems likely that DFS folks will have a whole new appreciation for the course. The one issue that could be a factor in some years around the course is the weather. With the course being right on the coast, we have seen winter winds pick up and create problems for players and this is the primary defense of the course. However, in looking at the weather this week, I am not seeing anything at all to be concerned about at this time. Certainly things could change, but currently, it looks like the weather will be perfect for the week. I do not see any point where winds will be gusty. There is no rain in the forecast and it appears that the entire weekend will be mostly sunny with temperatures on the cool side in the mid 60s. It is hard to envision more perfect conditions for this tournament. Check out the link here for the full outlook and be sure to check the hour by hour forecast as it becomes available for both Thursday and Friday.
The course will play at around 7,050 yards and is a Par 71, with three Par 5 holes. It is a much shorter course than what we’ve dealt with in recent years which makes for some interesting golf, but the course likely will not play a lot like it does early in the year. When the Pro-am takes place each year in February, the event takes place on three different courses so Pebble is only used for two rounds. Also, since there is the amateur aspect involved, they cannot make the course overly difficult as it would slow play considerably and make the pace of play nearly unbearable for the pros and viewers. So what will be different this week? It will start with the fairways. The USGA will cut about 5 yards of width off of the fairways which were on the narrow side to begin with. The next step will be to grow out the rough. This is a standard practice that we see each year, but with the narrow fairways and thick cuts of rough, missing off the tee becomes very penal in a hurry. There is also the ocean to deal with for those who miss in particularly poor fashion.
There are seven Par 4 holes this week that are under 430 yards. With the narrow fairways, we should see plenty of golfers club down off the tee. It is possible that some may even leave driver in the bag completely outside of the Par 5 holes and even those may be best played by not going for the green in two. Much like last week, this will be a second shot course and I think it compares really well in many regards to Hamilton. Placement in the fairway is important off the tee and having a strong short iron and wedge game will be the most important keys to success this week. Most of the US Open courses of late have played more to the bombers, but that should not be the case this week. The greens are very small this week and are poa annua which most players are at least somewhat familiar with. Precision on approach will be key as the greens will be shaved down and play incredibly fast. Give some edge towards the golfers who play well not only at Pebble, but also on the west coast swing in particular. If you notice, there are certain golfers that always seem to end up at Torrey Pines, Riviera and Pebble each year. Not surprisingly, these golfers tend to have some of the best numbers when it comes to putting on poa each year. Our putting splits tool can help you out if you get a little lost.
With regards to contest selection this week, we have some big decisions to make this week. DraftKings, in its unflinching wisdom has opted to increase the Millionaire Maker contest from $20 to $100. Once again, this must be due to wanting to ‘help out the little guys’. I am not really sure why they decided on such a high price point and I am hoping that it backfires and that they lose money on the event. At $20, I am always willing to at least throw in a team or two just to have in the mix for the week. At $100, I am not likely to put in a team. I would much rather put in 50-75 teams into the $10 contest this week and give myself some extra bullets to fire away. Since I am not going to put $5,000-10,000 into play for a contest with such a poor payout structure, I will be spreading my funds into a number of the other contest this week. I would strongly advise any of you who are planning to enter either the big $10 Return to the Beach contest to reserve your spots right now. That contest is going to fill up by the middle of the afternoon on Wednesday so if you do not want to be left out, jump on it now.
Key Stats
Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 25%
Strokes Gained Putting: 20%
Birdie or Better Percentage: 15%
Proximity: 15%
Par 4 Scoring: 10%
Scrambling: 10%
Strokes Gained Off The Tee: 5%
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