The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – U.S. Open

Welcome to the 2016 edition of The Daily Spin for the US Open. It seems like it was just a couple of weeks ago that we were building up to The Masters and now the US Open is here and with it, another opportunity to win $1 million in the Millionaire Maker event. While that is certainly exciting, I want to take some time today to try to convince you why you should be focusing on other contests this week first and foremost before putting in those lottery tickets for the Millionaire Maker.

I have talked about this type of event many times in the past, but for all of the new folks out there, it is worth repeating our philosophy about these types of events. There are going to be about 200,000 entries this week into the big contest. Nearly all types of rosters worthy of consideration will be represented this week meaning that it will take a near perfect lineup to take down the big prize. Many folks who cover the industry will be talking about finding contrarian players this week, but Millionaire Maker contests in golf are usually not won or lost based upon ownership levels. Rather, you will need to find the perfect core of players, starting with the winner in order to succeed.

In the US Open, finding that group of players starts with picking the winner. At this type of event, the stars tend to shine and thus, there is a higher likelihood than normal that an elite player will win the tournament. That does not always happen, but with some of the talent at the top this season, it seems likely that those high priced golfers will be in contention on Sunday. If you think one of those players will win, you will have to have them on your roster. Since it usually requires you to hit all six players (or very close) perfectly, it will not make a huge difference on strategic fades this week.

What does make a big difference this week is in hitting your core players on the nose. While we do not know where the big performances will come from in the middle or bottom tiers, we want to give ourselves as many opportunities as possible around a solid core to find those players. This is why I tend to advise folks on being able to play 15 lineups or more in an event like this. I understand the idea of wanting to put in one or two lineups for fun this week into a big contest. Understand that you are buying lottery tickets with that approach and that your odds are incredibly low for any return on your investment. The only shot that you have at winning is to find a solid core group, choose a pool of player around them that contain many players with upside potential, and get as many teams into the mix as possible. There are people who have won this event with a single entry. Please realize that this is simply not an optimal philosophy.

I would rather see most of you stick to our normal game plan of playing in the smaller GPP events this week that fit into your bankroll. Rather than putting in three $20 teams, put in twenty $3 teams or sixty $1 teams. The prize pools for all events are bigger this week so there is plenty to be gained by sticking to what works for us long term. Do not wipe out a lot of hard work from the last few months to chase down a big prize in an event where the payout structure is wildly tilted towards the top to grab maximum attention.

Where I really want to see you focus this week is on your cash game lineups. We have had a really great run over the last month with our cash game teams and typically, major tournaments are a great week for cash games. The reason for this is that the pricing structure, while still tough near the top, softens tremendously through the middle and bottom giving us a lot of great value to build strong teams without having to take a lot of chances. When you combine this with the fact that a lot of inexperienced players are diving into these games for the first time, it gives us a tremendous edge. Let’s go ahead and give all those folks coming over from NBA action and nice welcome to PGA this week! This is the sort of week when smart players will shift their bankroll exposure and move towards more of a 90% cash games, 10% GPP mix. However, I do understand that concept of wanting to have fun with the big event this week and that many of you wait for this all year so I will not tell you to skip the Millionaire Maker outright. Just realize that there are edges this week for you to exploit if you can get beyond feeling captivated by that glimmering, yet elusive, $1 million prize.

We have seen and heard everything about Oakmont over the last few weeks. The comments from the players make it seem terrifying enough and then the videos on the course make it seem truly overwhelming. The rough is around six inches, the greens a lightning fast and the bunkers are placed precisely to cause maximum pain. Phil Mickelson says it will be the toughest course they hold the US Open at and many have echoed his sentiments. Although it is not an overly lengthy course, the Par 70, 7,254 yard course will provide us with one of the most interesting viewing experiences in quite some time. Players the can stay out of trouble and make par are going to do well this week.

Normally, we look at scoring as a key stat each week, but for this event, it is bogey avoidance that is the key to success. Some pundits estimate that the winning score could be as high as +5 or worse which means that points will be tough to come by this week and that there is extra emphasis on where your golfers finish as opposed to their ability to make a lot of birdies or eagles. This sort of event favors the elite players who can get out of trouble better than most and also players with a deft touch on the greens. While we will not be seeing a lot of 20 foot putts getting dropped this week, the good putters are still at an advantage. While they may not make as many putts from long distances, they are still going to be more reliable than the poor putters on the types of short putts that you must make in order to win this week so I am not a fan of the narrative that thinks that good putters will be neutralized as is rarely the case for a US Open setup like this.

In looking at the key stats this week as provided by our friends at Fantasy Golf Metrics, we see a departure from our normal numbers this week:

Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 25%
Strokes Gained Putting: 25%
Par 4 Scoring: 20%
Driving Accuracy: 10%
Bogey or Worse Percentage: 10%
Scrambling: 10%

Remember, do not overthink your lineups this week. You need the perfect team to win and in a contest with 200,000 entries that is not going to be an easy task. Don’t talk yourself off of certain players for the simple reason of high ownership. If you think Jason Day will win the event, you have to take him, regardless of ownership trends. It may take some digging to find that 5th and 6th player on your roster that plays beyond expectations, but don’t worry about having a few chalk plays at the top of your lineup. While you can’t win the event by finding the winner, you can lose it by not including the winner on your roster.

Good luck this week and as always, please keep us in the loop if your team is making a run for the million this week. I will be awake late into Wednesday night and early Thursday morning so if you have any lineup issues between now and then, please get in touch with me and we will work through them together until we feel good about it. Also, be sure to tune in to Periscope tonight (through Twitter for all of your technologically unsound folks) at 9pm CST where I will take questions for as long as you can dish them out. We have worked hard to get to this point, now we just need to use the systems that we have built this year to carry us to a win this weekend.

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The optimal lineups performed well again this past weekend with two of three winning again last week and helping us to continue our solid run in cash games over the last month. It is especially exciting given the fact that majors weeks are the best time to really load up on cash games. It will be tempting for you to jump into as many millionaire maker contests as possible, but cash games are where you are going to make your money this week, particularly given the softer pricing available. You should be able to put together some very balanced rosters this week without having to take huge risks. I really love the three lineups that came out of our work this week and am hoping that we can continue our winning ways. We are fortunate to get a lot of experienced players onto our teams this week and only a couple of players that have not played much in US Open events.
 

Dustin Johnson – $11,000
Matt Kuchar – $8,500
Brooks Koeopka – $8,100
Lee Westwood – $7,700
Charl Schwartzel – $7,500
Daniel Berger – $7,200

Henrik Stenson – $9,100
Branden Grace – $8,700
Patrick Reed – $8,400
Brooks Koepka – $8,100
Brandt Snedeker – $8,000
Billy Horschel – $7,200

Sergio Garcia – $8,900
Branden Grace – $8,700
Matt Kuchar – $8,500
Patrick Reed – $8,400
Brandt Snedeker – $8,000
Billy Horschel – $7,200

Every golfer here is a US Open veteran and most have very strong track records through the years and Berger is playing amazing golf this season so his inexperience (one start in 2014) can be slightly overlooked. Our anchors this week are Matt Kuchar, Branden Grace, Brooks Koepka, Patrick Reed, Brandt Snedeker and Billy Horschel. Brooks does make me a little nervous as his potential for blowing up could lead to disaster as there will not be a lot of opportunities to make up for mistakes. Patrick Reed has also experienced some wildness off the tee this season, but fortunately, he is one of the best scramblers of tour and he seems to find himself near the top of the leaderboard at some point in every event. I am sure we will have a player or two that disappoints us, but the lineups are solid this week so I will certainly have a little extra exposure to cash games this week.

Before I dive in to the players this week, I want to note that the strategy piece below is geared towards what I will be entering for my 50-60 Millionaire Maker teams this week. Typically, I use around 20-23 players for my rosters, but given the incredible depth of a field like the US Open, I will expand that a little bit in the hopes of catching one or two additional sleeper plays that I may have missed otherwise. I held to the same basic structure as in previous events and am building around a five player core. Within my core, I wanted to emphasize one elite player that I felt could win the event outright and four strong value plays that consistently find themselves around the Top 10 and competitive to win most weeks. I tried to build a core and strong secondary group while taking more chances with tertiary players this week. That is usually the area where you will need to find one or two players who are overlooked that outperform their price and give your roster the edge it needs.

My approach this week, as always, is aggressive. For a less volatile approach, go ahead and flatten your ownership numbers at the top and throw in an additional 10-15 golfers to work with. Remember, the more players you use and the flatter your ownership levels, the more players you will have that miss the cut along with fewer contending rosters. However, the advantage is that you are not counting on a handful of players that must do well for you to succeed so that one or two players missing the cut at the top will not necessarily ruin you for the weekend.

CORE

Jason Day – 50% ($12,100)
Branden Grace – 50% ($8,700)
Matt Kuchar – 50% ($8,500)
Patrick Reed – 50% ($8,400)
Brooks Koepka – 50% ($8,100)

It was a real battle this week for me when going over the numbers with the top players in the field this week. While fading the top players was an option this week, it is one that I cannot agree with for an event that tends to see the best players in the world rise to the top. Now, we cannot totally hedge in owning all of the top players this week so we need to select the player we think has the best all around game to handle the rigors of Oakmont. I know that I am playing with fire in not selecting Jordan Spieth this week, but I just do not think his game is quite where it needs to be right now in order to win. While there are certain courses where he will be able to work his way out of trouble over and over again, Oakmont will be a tough setup as outside of last year at Chambers Bay, Spieth does usually struggle with typical US Open style setups. If we are not going to go with Spieth, we need to have a golfer that can handle himself on the greens and Jason Day is at least his equal. Day is the best golfer in the game for US Open style courses and has finished in the Top 10 in four of his five starts. He ranks 23rd in Strokes Gained Tee to Green and 1st in Strokes Gained Putting. The bunkers will be a challenge, but Day is 1st in sand saves and 42nd in scrambling overall. He ranks 3rd in Par 4 Scoring and 25th in bogey avoidance. Day is the best player in the world right now and he is our star pick for our core group this week.

Branden Grace is looking like one of the favorite value picks this week. He struggled upon arriving in the US this season, but has been fantastic overall making twelve of fourteen cuts and two wins this season along with eight total Top 10 finishes. He is a solid tee to green player and putts well. He scores well on Par 4’s and can scramble out of trouble. Last year, Grace was in position to win at Chambers Bay before hitting an errant tee shot on the 16th hole to derail his efforts and dropping him to a 4th place finish. He is an elite player priced in the value range and that makes him a compelling buy this week.

Matt Kuchar is another great value for us this week and although he is going to be heavily owned, he fits so well with what we are looking for this week that I do not want to overlooks him. As always, Kuchar has been incredibly consistent this season in missing only one cut in fifteen starts, but he has been especially good in his most recent starts making the Top 10 in five of his last six starts. Kuchar is a solid US Open type of player who has done well at a variety of courses in making the cut at this event in his last six starts and never finishing lower than 28th in that span. He ranks 15th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green and 20th in Strokes Gained Putting. He is 28th in Driving Accuracy, 23rd in Scrambling and 8th in Par 4 Scoring. He ranked at the top of our model this week and for that reason, he needs to be in our core.

Patrick Reed is another player that finds himself in contention in almost every event he plays in during the season. He has made the cut in fourteen of sixteen starts with eight Top 10 finishes this season. He has been on the verge of winning all season, but has not been able to putt nearly as well as last year and it has prevented him from breaking through. I do not feel like this will be a permanent issue for Reed, however as he has always been a solid putter, particularly on Poa Annua greens. Reed ranks 12th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, has average putting numbers as mentioned above and is not terribly accurate off the tee although he has improved in that area this year. He is an excellent scrambler and is ranked 2nd in that category overall and 33rd in Par 4 Scoring. Reed has made the cut in both US Open starts and finished 14th last year. We want players in our core this week who are consistently finishing near the top so even if Reed does not win, he has a good chance to outperform his price.

Brooks Koepka looks to have regained his form over the last month after posting his second straight 2nd place finish at the St Jude on Sunday. Koepka is a big hitter off the tee, and one of the best in terms of gaining strokes on the field as he is ranked 21st in Strokes Gained Tee to Green and 37th in Strokes Gained Putting. I am a little nervous about him being a little wild off the tee and playing out of the rough, but with Brooks, we get a talented player who handles challenging courses well and can take advantage of scoring opportunities when they present themselves. He ranks 5th in Par 4 Scoring and 17th in Birdie or Better Percentage. My biggest worry in using Brooks is that the mistakes he makes tend to come in bunches and there may not be a lot of scoring opportunities to make up for them if he gets off track early. However, Brooks has handled himself well at US Open events finishing 18th and 4th in his last two starts. This is a great price for Brooks as I suspect would have been higher had DraftKings waited until after St Jude to release salaries.

SECONDARY

Rory McIlroy – 20% ($12,000)
Dustin Johnson – 20% ($11,000)
Hideki Matsuyama – 20% ($9,800)
Brandt Snedeker – 20% ($8,000)
Martin Kaymer – 20% ($7,600)
Charl Schwartzel – 20% ($7,500)
Billy Horschel – 20% ($7,300)
Daniel Berger – 20% ($7,200)
Tony Finau – 20% ($6,700)
Chris Kirk – 20% ($6,600)
Anirban Lahiri – 20% ($6,100)

Rory McIlroy – Looks to be zeroing in on his game over the last few weeks after winning The Irish Open just a few weeks ago. He followed that up with a 4th place finish at the Memorial and has missed just one cut this season while posting seven Top 10 finishes. It is all going to come down to putting for Rory who has been playing around with his grip over the last couple of months. He appears to have figured it out of late and if I were a little more confident I might have used him even more this week. He has had good results at US Open events with three Top 10 finishes including a win in 2011.

Dustin Johnson is receiving a lot of buzz as he tends to around this event each year. After falling just short last year after blowing a golden opportunity, he will look to get his first major event win at Oakmont. He has been close at US Open events before with three Top 10 finishes, but is one of those players that is hard to count on when the tournament is tight on Sunday afternoons. If I felt better about DJ in the clutch, I would have included him in my core this week, but I do get a little nervous about his ability to work out of trouble at a course that punishes mistakes. Typically, DJ can go on a scoring binge to work himself out of a hole, but at Oakmont, that might be a challenge so I decided to slightly limit my use of DJ this week although he has been exceptional this year in not missing a cut in twelve starts and posting seven Top 10 finishes.

By now, most of you know my rule about top players that miss the cut in their previous event. It provides us with the perfect opportunity to get back in on them in the following week. What I like about Hideki is that he is an excellent ball striker that plays a solid, well rounded game. The obvious drawback to Hideki is his putter, but he does tend to be an efficient lag putter so I think some of his struggles can be neutralized. I am not certain that Hideki can win this week, but the Top 10 potential is there making him worth his salary this week.

Brandt Snedeker has been an excellent US Open player over the years, missing just one cut in eight starts with his next worse finish being 23rd back in 2007 at Oakmont. Snedeker handles tough courses well as evidenced by his win at Torrey Pines earlier this year and a 10th place finish at Augusta. His game is well balanced from tee to green and he has been a solid putter on this surface over the years. He is an excellent scrambler and can score on Par 3 and 4 holes so he makes for a great play this week.

We are going to roll the dice a little bit this week in taking a shot on Martin Kaymer. The talented, but not always consistent Kaymer is the type of player who could end up doing really well this week as he tends to play his best golf on the most challenging of courses. He destroyed the field two years ago at The Players Championship and the US Open and he seems to be trending in the right direction as he has made six straight cuts with three Top 10 finishes mixed in. I may be reaching here, but the upside is really high if Kaymer is on his game this week.

Charl Schwartzel is a player with a lot of major event experience and success. He has finished in the Top 10 twice in the US Open and has a win at The Masters to his credit. Schwartzel has won three times since November and missed just one cut in 13 starts all season. He is ranked 9th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, 85th in Strokes Gained Putting, 26th in Scrambling and 15th in Par 4 Scoring. In 2007, he finished 30th at Oakmont and while we do not want to put too much emphasis on an event from 2007, it is still better than no experience.

Billy Horschel looks like a nice value for us this week at $7,200. He has missed just one cut this season, finished in the Top 25 six times and the Top 10 three times. I like Billy’s ball striking ability at a course like Oakmont as he tends to be a little more accurate than average and his tee to green game has been well above average this season. Billy has also been very consistent at the US Open, recording three straight Top 25 finishes. He probably will not win this week, but at his price, if he can contend for a Top 10 finish, we will be more than happy with him.

Daniel Berger is cheaper than he would have been had DraftKings waited another week to put out the salaries. After posting his first career win at St Jude, Berger enters the US Open playing some excellent golf having made 15 of 18 cuts with nine Top 25 finishes, four Top 10’s and a win. He ranks 31st in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, 43rd in Strokes Gained Putting, and 15th in Par 4 Scoring. In his lone US Open start, Berger finished in 28th place in 2014. Berger has turned his game around this season in playing much more consistently week in and week out. He is priced to make the cut, but offers tremendous upside for his price.

Tony Finau is quietly moving back towards being the player he was a year ago when he went on a tear over the summer and put together a very strong rookie campaign. After getting his first win in Puerto Rico back in March, he has continued to play well over the last two months where he has made five of his last six cuts and a couple of Top 15 finishes. Obviously, his putting stats do not look good on paper, but he actually putts quite well on Poa Annua greens so the numbers are a bit distorted. In his lone US Open start last year, Finau finished in 14th place and has handled himself well in major tournaments. At $6,700, we just need him to get through the cut, but he does have the potential to give us some upside as well.

Chris Kirk looks to be a bargain at $6,600 this week as he is another player that has trended upward during 2016. He tends to be a little boom or bust as he either seems to finish in the Top 25 or else he misses the cut, but as a GPP play, that makes him worthy of being on a few rosters as we will try to capture some upside. His tee to green game has been sharp this year although he has had plenty of struggles with his putter. He scrambles well and although he has never been a great US Open player, at his price, we just need him to make the cut to add value for us this week.

Anirban Lahiri is another low priced option that has put together a nice season, making 13 of 16 cuts with two Top 10 finishes. He does not do a lot of flashy things on the course each week, but he has been a little better than average from tee to green and he does putt well on Poa Annua greens and ranks 33rd in Par 4 Scoring. He does not surprise to the upside often, but did so at the PGA Championship last year so he has made moves against strong fields before. We do not need him to do a lot this week, but at $6,100, he is the most talented player in his price range.

Tertiary

JB Holmes – 15% ($7,400)
Marc Leishman – 15% ($7,300)
Jason Dufner – 15% ($7,200)
Kevin Chappell – 15% ($7,100)
Webb Simpson – 15% ($7,000)
Danny Lee – 15% ($6,800)
Lee Westwood – 10% ($7,700)
Harris English – 5% ($6,700)
William McGirt – 5% ($6,700)
Chris Wood – 5% ($6,600)
Soren Kjeldsen – 5% ($6,400)
Gregory Bourdy – 5% ($6,300)
Tim Wilkinson – 5% ($5,800)

JB Holmes – Made 10/11 cuts this season with four Top 10 finishes, consecutive Top 30 finishes in US Open events the last two years, 39th SGTG, 71st in SGP, 33rd Par 4 Scoring, high upside with little buzz

Marc Leishman – 12/16 cuts made this season including back to back Top 15 finishes, six Top 25 finishes this season, 49th in SGTG, 17th in SGP, 70th in Driving Accuracy, 8th in Par 4 scoring, 13th in scrambling, great stats for challenging course

Jason Dufner – 15/18 cuts made this season, seven Top 25 finishes, four Top 10’s and one win, 19th SGTG, 58th in Driving Accuracy, 27th in Par 4 Scoring, solid US Open player with two Top 10 finishes in recent years

Kevin Chappell – made five of last six cuts with five Top 10 finishes this season, 10th in SGTG, 85th in Driving Accuracy, 45th in scrambling, 46th in Par 4 Scoring, has improved since a rough start to the season, has played very well in US Open starts, making the cut in all four with two Top 10

Webb Simpson – winner of the US Open in 2012, 5/5 in cuts made at US Open events, since switching his putting grip, he seems much improved and has regained his confidence with two straight finishes in the Top 11, 20th in SGTG, 63rd in Driving Accuracy, 56th in scrambling, 15th in Par 4 Scoring, tends to stay out of trouble and if he can putt at all he should have the chance to finish well

Danny Lee – 17/20 cuts made this season, a bit erratic and plays very streaky golf, but has the potential to produce a strong finish and is a solid value for his price, six Top 25 finishes this season, 33rd in SGTG, 24th in Driving Accuracy, 68th in Scrambling, 46th in Par 4 Scoring

Lee Westwood – Four straight Top 15 finishes including a T2 at The Masters, made seven of his last eight cuts at the US Open including three Top 10 finishes, good tee to green player, putts well on Poa Annua greens, should be an under utilized play this week with Top 10 potential

Harris English – 14/19 cuts made this season, six Top 25 and three Top 10 finishes this season, 87 in SGTG, 8th in SGP, 47th in scrambling, 33rd in Par 4 scoring, a little wild off the tee, but playing well and has Top 25 potential

William McGirt – 14/18 cuts made, five Top 10 finishes and is coming off of a win at The Memorial, not a long hitter off the tee, but ranks as one of the top players statistically based on the key stats this week, 38th in SGTG, 29th in SGP, 27th in Driving Accuracy, 32nd in scrambling, 15th in Par 4 Scoring, no US Open experience, but a nice price for a player who should be underowned this week

Chris Wood – 10/13 cuts made this season, two straight Top 10 finishes including a win at the BMW two weeks ago, four Top 10 finishes this season, no US Open experience so limiting exposure this week

Soren Kjeldsen – 12/14 cuts made this season with three Top 10 finishes including a T7 finish at The Masters, short hitter, but solid putter, playing some of the best golf of his career this season and has played well this season against strong fields

Gregory Bourdy – Little known European player whose lone PGA start was at the Puerto Rico Open, 14/16 cuts made this season, four Top 10 finishes this season, made seven straight cuts, well rounded player who will be owned at a very low level this week with Top 25 potential

Tim Wilkinson – Coming off of a missed cut last weekend where he missed the cut with a bogey on the last hole, he is 11/14 in making the cut this season, the stats line up really well, 67th in SGTG, 19th in SGP, 60th in Driving Accuracy, 5th in scrambling, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, a great price to help us with the salary cap at the top

Good Luck,

-myz
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