The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – Tour Championship
The golf season feels a lot like life. It never slows down long enough for you to pause to appreciate it and then it has passed you by. The 2016-2017 season was filled with big moments and some amazing golf. We crowned three new major championship winners. We watched DJ start the season in such dominant fashion and then hurt his back in a mysterious fall at Augusta that seemed to take the wind out of his sails. It was a huge year for rookies as we enjoyed seeing many like Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau and Xander Schauffele among others step right on to the tour and win events. We witnessed a parting of the ways with several star players and their longtime caddies. We also continue to see the rise in interest in fantasy golf, in all of its incarnations that has helped the game to grow to heights previously unimaginable and in reaching a new demographic group that is increasingly interested in the game.
A part of me would like to spend a lot of time wrapping up the season and thanking everyone and wishing you all well until ‘next season‘, but considering that we will have exactly one week off for the President’s Cup and will then be back to work for eight weeks of full golf coverage this fall, I suspect that you will scarcely have time to miss me before I am back from my trip to Yellowstone next week. Do not worry, I will have my computer and will be delivering you all of the NFL coverage that you can handle for Week 3 of the NFL season. Being the avid indoorsman that I am, I should have no trouble getting my work done in a nice quiet lodge that looks the part of being rustic, but also cushy enough for a man of my delicate sensibilities to truly relax and enjoy the offseason.
This is a great week to ease into the fall for PGA. The temptation is to play big since it’s a big event, but in a 30 player field with no cut and there being a big group at the top that could all easily contend, we do not have a big edge over other competitors this week. You are going to be able to pick two or three stars at the top and you need to hope that you find the winner. For GPP events, you will obviously not only need to find the winner this week, but you’ll need to make a great Razz hand from your six players in order to hit something big. Last week we faced a similar issue. We had all the Leishman last week, but unfortunately, Spieth and DJ did not do their part so even with the winner, it was tricky to have a big week with all of the Day and Fowler ownership that was out there in concert with the big Aussie.
This is the type of week where I actually do not mind the fact that many of the smaller dollar events are 20 entry max limit. With such a small field, there are going to be a lot of overlapping lineups so having tons of nearly identical teams would not be that much fun given the field this week. There are some big GPP events this week and we should discuss some strategy before getting too much further along. Given the small field and the relatively soft pricing in play, it is going to be very easy to build your rosters with two or three star players along with a few scrubs at the bottom. I am not quite certain as to what DK is trying to do week to week with the salaries. Last week, there was a hard floor at $6,900 making it very tough to stack the top players in the field. This week, about a third of the field is below that price which opens up a lot of options.
If you entering the big GPP events this week, it is important to find a way to differentiate yourself from your opponents. Last week, it was tough to leave salary on the table without making a big sacrifice in performance for your rosters. This week, that should not be a problem. With the softer pricing, I anticipate it will be easy for players to start near the top and build whatever type of team they would like. You can leave up to $1,000 on the table and comfortably make solid teams. I think leaving anything over $300 is where your chances increase tremendously of having a unique roster so I don’t think it is necessary to go much farther than that, but if you like the look of your team, go with it even if it is a little lower.
Throw total ownership targets out the window this week. What we used all year is not going to help you this week. With so few events each year that have a format similar to this, the targets just are not going to be that useful. If a few chalky players hit, the total ownership number could be up near 120% for the big GPP winning teams. However, there is an event this week, the $1500 main event, where I think players will still have some room to maneuver as there are only 259 entries in that contest. Ownership tends to be very polarized in those smaller fields so be sure to keep your ears out to see what some of the bigger players within the industry are buzzing about. While Spieth might be 30% owned in most normal contests, in a smaller field with a few players tilting the ownership numbers, you could see him much higher and likewise if people are off DJ after last week, the average ownership might be 15-20% in large field events, but maybe only 10-15% for something like the main event. Those are not numbers I am committed to yet by any means, but just an example of what can happen once the buzz starts to push owners in one direction or the other.
The key to contests like these is to flow away from the crowd. After last week, ownership should come off of DJ and Thomas so in an event where this happens to an even bigger degree, you can exploit the recency bias more easily. While I might not like a certain player in an event where there are 30,000 entries, I might love him in an event with 259. I feel like Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas and Jason Day might be those high dollar players that get overlooked just a bit more than the others at the top. I think the more volatile nature of Thomas’s finishes makes him scary to owners even if he does win much more often than most players. Hideki has not had his form throughout the playoffs and although Day has looked good recently, his price got a boost this week so I am not certain owners will want to pay for him over Rahm below or Fowler above. Last week, you could stack Day with another top player which you could only do for a few select pairings. With the pricing being wide open this week, my senses tell me that players are going to gravitate slightly away from Day.
Enough with ownership, let’s talk a little bit about East Lake Golf Club located just outside of Atlanta, Georgia. The Donald Ross designed course will be a step up for the players after the birdie fest from last weekend. The Par 70, 7,385 yard course features just two Par 5’s this week, and the second will play close to 600 yards leaving few scoring opportunities. Of the twelve Par 4 holes, only one is below 400 yards and most play to the longer side with the 14th playing at an especially long 520 yards. The fairways here are on the narrow side and some of the least hit on tour all season. Gone are the hopes of a -20 finish as that has not happened since Tiger Woods crushed the field in 2007 with an eye popping -23, besting second place by eight strokes. From 2008 onward, the winning score has ranged from -7 to -13 so golfers should be more focused this week on minimizing mistakes as opposed to reaching for scoring opportunities. With the length and narrow fairways, players have some big decisions off the tee in terms of keeping driver in the bag to try to stay well positioned or in trying to get as much distance as possible off the tee to try to chop down this lengthy course. As accuracy was one of the key stats to pop up this week, it is important to find players that have the best combination of length and accuracy. Finally, we are back on Bermuda greens this week. With the slew of events that were recently completed on bentgrass, this will be a nice change for many of the younger players on tour that tend to be more comfortable on Bermuda grass greens. For the best first look at the course this week, take a look at Adam Daly’s First Tee column here.
The key stats for the week as provided to us by our friends at Fantasy Golf Metrics are as follows:
Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 27.5%
Strokes Gained Putting: 27.5%
Birdie or Better %: 20%
Proximity: 10%
Driving Accuracy: 10%
Scrambling: 5%
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