The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – The Wyndham Championship

It all went so fast this year, didn’t it? Four Millionaire Makers have come and gone and four more major championships are in the books, producing three champions that were easy to route for along the way. The growth of daily fantasy golf has been nothing short of extraordinary this year, far outpacing even our wildest hopes in terms of the number of people that have started to enter contests. I even managed to get my dad hooked into playing this season and now he is applying the same meticulous process to daily fantasy golf as he does to his season long fantasy football league by filling page after page of tiny handwritten notes on each and every player he wants to research for the week. Do not be surprised next season to see user MacNCheeseSwag up on top of a few GPPs and in on players weeks before the throngs have descended to ruin the value in the play.

The PGA Championship proved to be by far our most successful week of the season. I spent countless hours pouring through data, talking to Jeff, Roger Casey, followers and other fantasy golf writers to help me to come to some solid conclusions for the week. Although there were many players that contended at various points of the tournament, ultimately, the best players rose to the the top of the leaderboard by Sunday and we had the exact pairing that many of us thought would be last out on Sunday afternoon. Although I owned more of Jordan Spieth than any other player, it was great to see an emotional, Jason Day win the tournament, his first, and probably not his last major victory.

For the week, I broke my rankings down into two parts to make it easy for all of your to focus on very specific players in constructing your lineups. I wanted you to build your teams around ten players that I identified as Core Players for the week. In an event where the pricing is so soft and the talent level is so high, it makes very little sense to take ANY risk in building your cash game lineups. In the Millionaire Maker and other large field GPPs, you will usually need to get a little bit more creative, but by and large, I gave you all the pieces you needed to be very profitable for the week. With all ten of our core players making it through the cut, a lot of you had tremendous results, which made Sunday night really amazing for me as we received so many wonderful e-mails and tweets letting us know about the successes you had enjoyed over the weekend. More than anything else, seeing all of you improve your game and win some money is our number one goal. We want to do all that we can to help grow the game that we love so much and this season is just a starting point for our website.

Besides our core picks, we had a few strong peripheral plays that worked out well for us in Matt Kuchar and also David Lingmerth. The one recommendation I missed that I was kicking myself over all weekend was Tony Finau. Although I crushed Roger Casey in our head to head bet on Jason Bohn, I have to pat him on the back for his pick of Finau last week. If you have not checked out Roger’s write up on Fantasy Aces each week, you are missing out. He has been a wonderful addition to our team and even if you have not signed up yet for Fantasy Aces (which you should), his columns are still worth a read as they provide tremendous insight into the course and the players that you should be targeting each week.

I also want to extend a warm welcome to our many new subscribers this week. Thanks you for joining us. If you had not heard, we like to do our absolute best to connect with as many of you as possible. I am personally available to answer lineup, bankroll and strategy questions just about any time during the week when I do not have my hands full working on site related activities. I enjoy being able to talk with each of you directly in providing a bit of coaching and a lot of encouragement each week as you work towards mastering this game. For you newbies, please feel free to reach out if you are having any issues and I will talk you through it as best as I can. You are not alone with your questions so do not be nervous to strike up a conversation.

That said, Jeff and I are really excited about a lot of the things that we are working on and hope to have ready by 2016. I do not want to over promise at this stage, but we are working on several different tools that will improve your ability to do research on players as well as being able to model out performance. As we continue to improve the quality of our site, we will have to increase our annual rates for subscriptions. However, we appreciate the loyalty that all of you have shown us this year and it is something that we value above all else. Therefore, we have decided that anyone who joins before the end of 2015 will be grandfathered in at our current rates so long as they do not have a break in their subscription with us. We want to make our site the best in the industry which will require us to make additional investments, but we do not want to do it by passing on the costs to the folks that have been with us from the beginning. So if you have any friends out there that have been on the fence about subscribing or other people that you think would benefit from our service, pass on this news so that they too, can lock in these prices before they go up next year. While the increase will not be substantial, we did want to make sure to let you know that your loyalty is important to us and that your support has really helped us to put out the best product possible week in and week out.

Now, let’s get back to golf for the week. each tournament should be approached a little bit differently. With major events, you are dealing with a large number of entries, softer pricing, and a higher quality field for the event. Typically, that means that it is essential to get six players through the cut to make money in cash games and you need to have all six of your picks finish very high in the field in order to be successful in large GPP events. If you take the attitude that I recommend in those weeks of keeping things simple, you are going to have a lot of success. Unfortunately, with an event like the Wyndham Championship, we are dealing with nearly the opposite situation. We have a decent, but not great field, tougher pricing constraints, and fewer novice players out there trying their luck at golf for the first time.

The Wyndham Championship serves as a bridge between the last of the major tournaments and the FedEx Cup Playoffs that begin next weekend at The Barclays. It marks that last chance that certain players will have to break into the Top 125 FedEx rankings so there is a little something extra for a few golfers to play for. My thought on that is not to view it the same way as you would a team in the NFL needing to win its last game to get into the playoffs. Most of the better players on fringe will give it their best effort, but if they were truly concerned about making one last push, it would have been very easy for them to have simply played a few more events along the way to get qualified. Plus, the assertion that they had not given their best up until this point, but they will do so now, is not something that I find to be all that plausible. If you are one the fence with a player and could go either way about having them on your roster, this may be the type of thing that could tip the scales, but I would not suggest targeting these players simply based on that fact alone. Several of those players who need to play well to earn that spot include Camillo Villegas who ranks 126th, Vijay Singh 127th, Luke Donald 134th. As Jeff Bergerson noted in his column, nobody in the past five years outside the Top 135 has gained a spot in the first leg of the playoffs during the final week before the playoffs begin.

In terms of bankroll management, it makes sense to cut back on your total exposure and play for the week. Cash games are going to be trickier as the players in the $6000-8000 range are not all that far apart in terms of their abilities and so predicting who will make and miss the cut becomes more difficult. It also is a good time to take a little more risk in putting together stars and scrubs rosters for GPP events. Since there are going to be more players than normal making the cut and even finishing well from the lower price ranges than normal, it will makes sense to use them to save on salary to make more of the high quality players at the top tiers more affordable. You will notice this week that I have geared many more of my picks towards the high end and the low end to accommodate this strategy.

One question that I have received from subscribers this week relates to the lineup building process. Let’s take a quick moment to just hit the basics for putting together your rosters. For cash games, use two teams, maybe three at the most. Anything beyond that and you are going to get ground down by being spread over too many players. Pick around 8 primary players that you feel very confident about making the cut and then rotate just a couple of players in and out around that core. For GPPs, this exercise is similar, but involves combining more players around your core groups and choosing core groups with maximum upside potential. Pick a group of 3-4 players to use several times and then rotate in different players around that group to give those core players many chances to excel instead of just a single shot where you hope to get lucky in selecting the right peripherals on the first try. Use target percentages for how much you want to use each player. This system will help you to avoid building a bunch of lineups without any real rhyme or reason. Your goal should be to overweight the players that you have the most confidence in. This sounds obvious, but you would be surprised at what can happen if you just start building random lineups.

For this week, Sedgefield Country Club is a Par 70 course measuring 7,127 yards with only two Par 5 holes in play. The average winning score over the past seven years has been 17 under par, so it should be another scoring spree this week. Greens in regulation is an important statistic this week in analyzing who will perform well. Each year, those who hit the most greens in regulation tend to rise to the top of the leaderboard. Last year, of the 20 players who hit the most greens in regulation, 16 of them finished in the Top 25, and three of the top four golders in GIR finished in the Top 5. In 2013, the trend continued as Patrick Reed led the way with the most greens hit in going on to win the tournament. With the shorter course length this week, distance off the tee is less of a concern. I want to focus on players that have a good combination of both distance and accuracy, leading us to Total Driving, with a little more emphasis on the accuracy portion of that statistic. Continuing along that trend, iron play will also be crucial to success this week so as always, Strokes Gained Tee to Green should receive a good deal of your attention. The other stats that I used when researching players this week included: Par 4 and 5 Scoring, Proximity to the Hole, Strokes Gained Putting, GIR from Other Than Fairway, and Approaches from over 200 yards. It is a lengthy list, but should help you in seeing potential weak spots in each player’s abilities. Of course, historical results at the event were taken into account as well as recent form, with more emphasis on the latter.

Good luck to all of you this week and please be sure to check out our webcast that we do every Monday night and post Tuesday morning. It provides a great way to start preparing for the week and gives you some early insight into the players that we are going to be looking at for the week. Please come check us out there or on our Twitter page (@fantasygolfers). Also, I will be live on Periscope each Wednesday night at 9pm CST to take your lineup questions so be sure to come check that out so I am not sitting alone and bored and staring at myself in the camera for 15 minutes.

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BLUE CHIPS

Brooks Koepka ($10,800) – It is that time of the week where I talk about Brooks Koepka again. DraftKings finally gave owners something to think about this week in raising his price in a way that makes it not a completely obvious pick at first site as it has been in the two previous weeks. He is still Brooks Koepka, the man capable of shooting four shots over par on the front nine the first day only to roar back with five straight birdies after that, but his ability to score should set him apart this week. He is a very good tee to green player and putts well so even at this higher price, Brooks is still a solid play for the week.

Tournament History 2014- 38th

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 34th
Strokes Gained Putting- 5th
Greens in Regulation- 19th
Total Driving- 42nd
Par 4 Scoring- 10th
Par 5 Scoring- 4th
Approaches Greater than 200 Yards- 52nd

Hideki Matsuyama ($10,900) – Hideki is beginning to test the patience of owners with his play this summer. Much was expected of him this season and although the results have been far from bad, he has not had that marquee moment that many of us were looking for at the beginning of the season. Last week was no different as he raced out to an early lead before settling in the rest of the weekend and putting up a pedestrian T37 result. It has been an all too common problem for Matsuyama this year, but should not be a worry to owners this week as Hideki will make a rare appearance in a weaker field with a shorter course. Outside of his putting, Matsuyam shines in most other areas and will be looking to build up some momentum heading into the playoffs next weekend.

Tournament History 2014- MC, 2013 – 15th

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 5th
Strokes Gained Putting- 102nd
Greens in Regulation- 23rd
Total Driving- 9th
Par 4 Scoring- 4th
Par 5 Scoring- 25th
Approaches Greater than 200 Yards- 95th

Brandt Snedeker ($10,300) – The hip injury that slowed him down at The Open no longer appears to be an issue and this makes Snedeker a strong play this week. He is not a long hitter off the tee, but has good tee to green numbers and is one of the better putters on tour which makes him a threat to win here for the second time as he previously won a title here in 2007. With eight Top 10 finishes on the season including a victory, Snedeker appears primed to be a factor this week as he prepares to make a run at another FedEx Cup title.

Tournament History 2014- 5th, 2013 – MC, 2012 – 28th, 2011 – MC, 2010 – 8th

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 64th
Strokes Gained Putting- 7th
Greens in Regulation- 135th
Total Driving- 111th
Par 4 Scoring- 15th
Par 5 Scoring- 18th
Approaches Greater than 200 Yards- 116th

Bill Haas ($9,600) – Though he has underwhelmed me at times this season with his play, he is still one of the better tee to green players in the field and he still does well with Greens In Regulation so the main skills are in place and that has paid dividends for Haas here in the past as he has one of the better track records for the course over the last few years. Another key note for the week is that Haas is from North Carolina and played his college golf at Wake Forest so he is a little more familiar with the course than other players and will want to shine this week in front of family and friends.

Tournament History 2014 – 2nd, 2013 – 20th, 2012 – 7th, 2011 – MC, 2010 – 28th

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 28th
Strokes Gained Putting- 148th
Greens in Regulation- 51st
Total Driving- 66th
Par 4 Scoring- 59th
Par 5 Scoring- 49th
Approaches Greater than 200 Yards- 162nd

Webb Simpson ($9,500) – Death, taxes and Webb Simpson missing putts…things that are certainties that we must learn to accept in this world. Simpson is an immense talent with any club outside outside of his putter and the results this season paint that struggle well. He is incredible from tee to green getting a good mix of distance and accuracy off of the tee and playing his iron shots across the board better than just about anyone on tour. Like Haas, Simpson was born in North Carolina and played his college golf at Wake Forest so familiarity will help him out. The last time he played in an event where he was on a familiar course (Wells Fargo), he took 2nd place and his history in this event has been amazingly consistent so I am ready to recommend Simpson again.

Tournament History 2014 – 5th, 2013 – 11th, 2012 – 22nd, 2011 – 1st, 2010 – 8th

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 7th
Strokes Gained Putting- 169th
Greens in Regulation- 68th
Total Driving- 15th
Par 4 Scoring- 112th
Par 5 Scoring- 7th
Approaches Greater than 200 Yards- 20th

VALUE PLAYS

Justin Thomas ($9,400) – A lot of you will ask why Thomas over some of the other players available here like Branden Grace, Paul Casey or Billy Horschel. My answer on this one is that while each of those players does have the potential to do well, I think Thomas offers us the most potential upside. He is not without risk, so if you are looking for the safe play, pivot to Horschel. Just realize that his the trade off for his consistency is a lower ceiling the majority of the the time. Horschel has had a few shots here without posting a Top 25 finish so paying $9,500 for him just did not offer enough value for me. With Grace, my worry is that many of his recent strong results took place at links style courses (WGC excluded) and the last time he entered an easier type of course after a major where he had a nice result (4th at the US Open), he then went on to have a letdown at The Travelers. At his price of $9,700, he would need to finish near the top in this event to feel bad about fading him. Finally, Paul Casey has had a few nice moments this season, but has been a bit erratic overall. Like Horschel, he has not posted a big result here so I think the risk of fading him is lower than with the others in his price range.

As for Justin Thomas, he does a lot of things well for this course. He is solid off the tee, has a very good tee to green game, hit a lot of greens and scores a lot of birdies which will be important in keeping pace with the low scores that will be posted this week. Thomas has seven Top 10 finishes this year which means that for those times when Thomas makes it to the weekend, he is usually in position for a better than average finish.

Tournament History – NA

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 21st
Strokes Gained Putting- 99th
Greens in Regulation- 35th
Total Driving- 56th
Par 4 Scoring- 89th
Par 5 Scoring- 2nd
Approaches Greater than 200 Yards- 87th

Harris English ($8,600) – When his name popped up on my list this week, I cringed a little bit. As Jeff and I watched him out at the PGA Championship on Saturday afternoon, English had already begun to meltdown and fall out of contention. English is one of the best players on tour for posting good scores in the initial two rounds, but notorious this year for falling apart after making it through the cut. He makes the list as a nice cash game play as he will normally makes the cut without issue. He does have upside potential, he just has not flashed it much this year. Use him cautiously.

Tournament History 2012 – 10th

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 76th
Strokes Gained Putting- 23rd
Greens in Regulation- 63rd
Total Driving- 40th
Par 4 Scoring- 42nd
Par 5 Scoring- 25th
Approaches Greater than 200 Yards- 70th

Will Wilcox ($8,400) – Yes, everyone will own him this week. He has been mentioned in nearly every writeup or preview that we have seen so far. I expect him to be the most heavily owned player in the middle salary teir this week. If the stats looked a little worse or the finishes were not there, it would be easier to avoid him, but he has been so good lately that he makes for a good play this week, even if he is simply used to keep your team inside the salary cap. He is playing well, is very strong statistically and took 24th in his first time here last season.

Tournament History 2014- 24th

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 20th
Strokes Gained Putting- 40th
Greens in Regulation- 4th
Total Driving- 2nd
Par 4 Scoring- 5th
Par 5 Scoring- 87th
Approaches Greater than 200 Yards- 59th

Russell Knox ($8,100) – Russell Knox has not looked very good in recent events, having missed the cut in three of his last five starts. However, at the Travelers, he withdrew due to illness and the other two events were on longer, links style courses that did not suit his game well. I expect the shorter track to play to Knox’s strength as a player who excels in Total Driving, iron play and hitting greens with regularity.

Tournament History 2012 – 37th

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 25th
Strokes Gained Putting- 129th
Greens in Regulation- 7th
Total Driving- 57th
Par 4 Scoring- 8th
Par 5 Scoring- 144th
Approaches Greater than 200 Yards- 28th

Austin Cook ($8,000) – Austin Cook is a bit pricey, considering his limited play this season. However, in his limited starts, he has been a fantasy point scoring machine in making four of five cuts with three Top 11 finishes. He has been great tee to green and putts well allowing him to stay competitive for a top finish in the events he has played in so far. There is a little more risk for the price, but within that $6000-8000 range, there are not really any players that are not vulnerable to missing a cut so having liked what I have seen from Cook so far, I like the potential upside from using him here this week.

Tournament History NA

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 13th
Strokes Gained Putting- 8th
Greens in Regulation- 103rd
Total Driving- NA
Par 4 Scoring- 6th
Par 5 Scoring- 5th
Approaches Greater than 200 Yards- 127th

Jason Dufner ($7,600) – Probably the player I am least excited about recommending here, Jason Dufner is here as a guy who can make the cut and has some upside for his price. I am not that excited about what I have seen from Dufner so far this season, but some of that can be explained away due to the rough divorce he went through early in the year from his flirty ex-wife, Amanda, who is not ugly. He had a nice stretch of tournaments at the Byron Nelson, the Memorial and US Open where things started to turn around, but then struggled at The Open and PGA Championship. I am willing to cut him a bit of slack as the last two courses were certainly not easy courses and much of what Dufner has played this year has taken place on tougher courses in deeper fields. He has made six straight cuts coming into this event and did finish 7th here back in 2012, so he does have some potential upside. After last week, he probably will not be that highly owned and I needed someone in this price range to help facilitate roster construction so while I am not that excited to welcome Dufner back into the mix, I think his floor is high enough at this event to give him another shake.

Tournament History 2014- 2012 – 7th, 2011 – MC, 2010 – 34th

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 17th
Strokes Gained Putting- 195th
Greens in Regulation- 39th
Total Driving- 39th
Par 4 Scoring- 101st
Par 5 Scoring- 69th
Approaches Greater than 200 Yards- 99th

Stewart Cink ($7,200) – Although he missed the cut in his most recent appearance back in 2012, Stewart Cink still makes for a good value play at his price this week. Cink is a steady tee to green player with an average putter that plays his long irons really well and hits a lot of greens as one of the best proximity players on tour. His recent results have yielded two MCs and two Top 20 finishes so he is certainly not a sure thing to do well here, but given his statistical strengths, I am willing to take a shot with Cink.

Tournament History 2013 – MC

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 78th
Strokes Gained Putting- 84th
Greens in Regulation- 3rd
Total Driving- 147th
Par 4 Scoring- 30th
Par 5 Scoring- 69th
Approaches Greater than 200 Yards- 8th

SLEEPERS

Vaughn Taylor ($6,700) – He will be popular this week. I like him, but I am not going to overload my rosters with him this week. Although he has only missed one cut this season in eleven starts, this is still just Vaughn Taylor here we are talking about, right? He has piled up a lot of nice numbers in softer events so I think he will be able to do the same this week, but let’s not get too crazy and treat him with the same respect as we had for Robert Streb at $6,800 last week. His record here is nothing spectacular so mix him in with your other sleepers without going over the top.

Tournament History 2012 – MC, 2011 – 52nd

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 8th
Strokes Gained Putting- 79th
Greens in Regulation- 25th
Total Driving- 45th
Par 4 Scoring- 35th
Par 5 Scoring- 9th
Approaches Greater than 200 Yards- 30th

Hudson Swafford ($6,700) – Hudson Swafford is a statistical monster and yet we just cannot seem to get a result from him to get too excited about. He has made the cut in seven of his last eight events and seems to be turning a corner in his young career. He putts well, hits a lot of greens and is ranked as the top golfer on approaches of over 200 yards. He also hits more than his share of birdies. He is priced the same as Taylor and makes for a great pivot to give you some balance among your sleepers.

Tournament History 2014- 67th

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 117th
Strokes Gained Putting- 29th
Greens in Regulation- 37th
Total Driving- 8th
Par 4 Scoring- 61st
Par 5 Scoring- 25th
Approaches Greater than 200 Yards- 1st

John Peterson ($6300) – He’s back! I took a little hiatus from Peterson recently when he began to falter and miss cuts, but I liked what I saw at the Quicken Loans National and this course fits him well. Peterson is not a long hitter, but accurate and plays his irons well making him a good tee to green player. He hits a lot of greens, but obviously, the big drawback for Peterson is his putter. He will have plenty of opportunities to score this week and as long as he can convert a few while avoiding getting too far behind the birdie train, he should be a good fit for a cut maker this week.

Tournament History 2014- MC

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 56th
Strokes Gained Putting- 150th
Greens in Regulation- 43rd
Total Driving- 27th
Par 4 Scoring- 24th
Par 5 Scoring- 103rd
Approaches Greater than 200 Yards- 187th

Jim Herman ($6100) – Jim Herman is another nice boring play for us this week with one area of particular expertise: hitting a high percentage of greens in regulation. He is a good off the tee, plays his long irons great and hits greens. Much like Peterson, he can’t putt, but he does have a few decent tournament finishes to his credit so familiarity should help him out. He has been a little up and down this season, but has made seven cuts out of his last ten starts. If he makes the cut, he will have outperformed his price.

Tournament History 2014- MC, 2013 – 11th, 2011 – 59th

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 77th
Strokes Gained Putting- 139th
Greens in Regulation- 2nd
Total Driving- 10th
Par 4 Scoring- 93rd
Par 5 Scoring- 69th
Approaches Greater than 200 Yards- 15th

Adam Hadwin ($6,000) – Our last player of the week has really turned his game around as of late, but still has not seen a big jump in price as a result. At $6,000, Hadwin needs to make the cut, which has not been an easy task for him this year, but in his last three events, he has finished 18th, 7th, and 21st (excluding the Barracuda). I have read that Hadwin is not great on Bermuda grass, but the sample size is fairly limited so I am taking that with a grain of salt and relying on the improvement that I’ve witnessed over the last month. With all of these sleepers, be sure to mix and match a bit since none of these players are a certainty to make the cut, but each does have some upside.

Tournament History NA

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 115th
Strokes Gained Putting- 58th
Greens in Regulation- 85th
Total Driving- 54th
Par 4 Scoring- 107th
Par 5 Scoring- 134th
Approaches Greater than 200 Yards- 164th

And that’s a wrap for the week! Let’s keep our run of great play going this week and win some more money! If you end up in the mix for a big prize come Sunday, hit us up on Twitter so we can cheer you on! Also, this is the last weekend that you can qualify for the World Championship in Boston. There is a $20 qualifier and a $300 qualifier so we would love to see additional Team FGI folks out there! Hit me up directly if you would like to talk strategy on that type of event.

Good Luck!

myzteriouzly

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