The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – The Tour Championship

We have finally arrived at the end of the 2014-2015 PGA golf season. It went by so fast this year. Usually by June, I am dying with anticipation for the football season to get here. Yet, this season, with the amount of amazing golf that was on display week in and week out, combined with the abundance of new and exciting contests to play on DraftKings and other sites, the summer just flew by. As the game continues to grow, I think what we are going to see next season is going to far surpass this year. Here at FGI, we are looking towards the contests just after the Hawaiian swing of the tour in January to be the first big events for DraftKings next year.

We think that the qualifier contests for the Fantasy Golf World Championship will start earlier and that the field will likely be at least double of what it was this year. We anticipate Millionaire Maker GPPs beyond just the majors next year and think that The Masters next year could be of a similar size to what we’ve seen in the first couple of weeks of the NFL season. It is going to be an exciting ride, so stick with us throughout the fall season so that when the big money comes flooding into golf next year, you will have a leg up on your fellow competitors, many of whom will come stumbling in after football season comes to an end without near the focus that we have maintained here.

Looking back briefly at the BMW Championship last week, it was an absolute runaway for Jason Day, which was not terribly unexpected, but it did make it difficult to build around. For the most part, I owned Day on a chunk of $3 GPP teams where I pieced together the rest of my team from a cluster of players in the lower salary tiers. Despite my best efforts, I just did not get enough of Day, Daniel Berger AND Scott Piercy teams together to make a deep run. I did manage to get one into the Top 500 briefly, but Shawn Stefani wrecked it for me. It was just a tough week if you only entered one or two teams into GPPs as some lower salaried golfers jumped up the leaderboard and there just was not a big indicator as to how or why these players did quite so well. For those of you that played cash, it was a profitable week yet again. As we preferred Rose over Furyk last week and discussed it at length on our webcast and Jeff’s appearance on Pat Mayo, his withdraw largely missed most of our lineups. From what I can tell, it looks like it missed most of you as well so I am pleased with that. I personally thought Furyk was an okay play for the week, but his withdrawal in a no-cut event was ruination for owners. We got a little bit lucky, but that was not always the case during the season.

This week, we head to Atlanta for the Tour Championship and a field of just 29 golfers, following Jim Furyk’s withdrawal earlier today. The tournament will be held at East Lake Golf Club where it has been played every year since 2004. It is Par 70, 7300 yard course that has played towards the tough side in comparison to some of the other playoff courses with the winning score coming in right around -8 to -13 so it will not play out quite like the birdie fest that we enjoyed last weekend. We are looking for players that can score this week, but we also want to stick to the basics in terms of the stats that we look at. As always, Strokes Gained Tee to Green will lead the way, followed by Par 4 scoring. Greens In Regulation correlates well with success and will be followed by Total Driving, Birdie or Better Percentage and Strokes Gained Putting. As this is a lengthy course, long iron play from outside of 200 yards is also worthy of consideration as more approach shots than normal will come from this range.

So how do we play an event like this? First off, I think there are some ways to be profitable, just do not expect that perfect lineup to pay off the way it normally would. There are probably going to be a lot of overlapping lineups in the smaller buy-in GPPs this week so if you do hit that lineup that would normally pay $100k, you may end up splitting that with 50-100 other owners. The smaller field GPPs will still offer a few chances for differentiation, but more than likely, you will not get paid off unless someone other than Jason Day wins the event.

There are two ways to play the event this week. You can roll with one of the big three favorites and stack one other stud with them or you can stack three studs together and fill in at the bottom with the rest. For my part, I will be utilizing each strategy in my $3 GPP strategy for the week. Once again, position points are going to be marginalized as every player will finish in the Top 30 this week. Every player will receive a minimum of three points which cuts down the advantage of placing higher in the field. So, in a purely hypothetical situation where you pick a golfer that crumbles in a round and ends up in last place, it may not be the end of the world for your team. 29th place will get three points and 11th place will get 6 points. Obviously, the golfer in 11th shaved a few strokes here and there, but given the rewards in scoring for volatile play, it’s really only a matter a few extra birdies to even things out. If that player is someone like Brooks Koepka, throw in an eagle and conceivably the bottom player this week could outscore someone who finished much higher in the standings.

The other half of my strategy will be to put combinations of three top players together while mix and matching the rest. Although, Jason Day has been dominant, he’s still far from a lock to win this week. Also, the pricing was to a point last week where it was really difficult to stack any stars together at all. Giving yourself three bullets to try to hit the mark gives you a lot more outs than normal and considering that the ‘scrubs’ that you get to build around those players with are all pretty solid players, it is a sound strategy to work with.

I do not advise overdoing it with your bankroll this week. It will be tempting to dive in deep as this is the last event until the fall season revs up in a few weeks, but your upside is going to be a bit more limited than normal for the risk and you will need to hit the correct lineup right on the mark to make reasonable money this week. However, there are a few big contests left this week so if you do happen to find yourself in the mix, shoot us a tweet so the FGI team can cheer you on over the weekend.

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The number of players selected this week is going to be a bit limited in nature just due to the small field. The handful that I selected can be matched together in a couple of ways and I will detail a few of the combinations as I go through the players here. I really do believe that a stars and scrubs lineup is the best way to approach this week. With the downside being limited for the field, it’s best to aim for the players with the best chance of winning the tournament. My mix of teams this week will be based on a pretty simple formula: 30% of my teams will start with Jason Day, 10% of my teams will start with Rory McIlroy, 10% with Spieth and the other 50% will be teams built with three studs at the top.

Here are a few of the core combinations that I recommend utilizing this week:

Stenson/Rose/Watson
Fowler/Rose/Watson
Rose/DJ/Watson
Fowler/DJ/Watson
Stenson/DJ/Watson
DJ/Rose/Fowler

BLUE CHIP

Jason Day ($12,500) – Little need for an introduction when it comes to Jason Day. He has won 4 of his last 6 events and had the BMW Championship put away by the end of the day on Friday. He is locked in better than any other player since the best years from Tiger Woods last decade. He doing everything well right now, particularly from tee to green and with his putter. He does not have a win here yet, but did finish 4th last season and 6th in 2011. If you are building multiple teams, it is risky to fade Day. He wants this win to prove he is the best player in the world and he is very close to attaining that official ranking.

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 5th
Greens in Regulation- 6th
Par 4 Scoring- 1st
Total Driving- 57th
Birdie or Better %- 1st
Strokes Gained Putting- 5th
Approaches from beyond 200 yds- 32nd

VALUE PLAYS

Henrik Stenson ($10,500) – If you are looking for a guy to keep it in the fairway and who does not make a lot of mistakes, Stenson plays a safe game and hits fairways and greens. His play has been stellar so far in the FedEx Cup playoffs with a 10th and two 2nd place finishes. Sweetening the deal is the fact that Stenson won this same event just two years ago in 2013. He is playing his best golf of the season and has a lot of upside potential.

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 2nd
Greens in Regulation- 1st
Par 4 Scoring- 5th
Total Driving- 1st
Birdie or Better %- 13th
Strokes Gained Putting- 20th
Approaches from beyond 200 yds- 12th

Rickie Fowler ($10.300) – Making a strong late season push, Fowler has the potential on any given week to win a tournament. He is the type of player I like this week as he will score a lot of points whether he is in 1st or 20th. He followed his win in Boston with a 4th place finish last week and took 8th here last year so I fully expect him to be in contention again this year.

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 27th
Greens in Regulation- 105th
Par 4 Scoring- 60th
Total Driving- 18th
Birdie or Better %- 12th
Strokes Gained Putting- 33rd
Approaches from beyond 200 yds- 21st

Justin Rose ($9,800) – After a somewhat quiet 13th place finish last week, Rose enters the Tour Championship with a little less fanfare than some of the other stars this week. Rose is a very key play in that he can be stacked with any other player this week regardless of salary so I anticipate that he will be in a lot of lineups this week as one of the highest owned players this week. He has a nice record here with three straight Top 6 finishes.

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 8th
Greens in Regulation- 9th
Par 4 Scoring- 22nd
Total Driving- 4th
Birdie or Better %- 4th
Strokes Gained Putting- 90th
Approaches from beyond 200 yds- 22nd

Dustin Johnson ($9.100) – As we move down the list of players, we start to see some deep discounts for guys that put up a lot of points every week. This is about as low of a price as you are ever going to see DJ and I do not even really care if he is close to winning it on Sunday. I would almost rather have him enter the last round in 10th place without much hope of winning at all so there is zero pressure on him during his last round as that is the ideal situation for him to go on a scoring spree. He enters the Championship having finished in the Top 10 in three of his last four starts and finished in 5th the last time he played here back in 2013.

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 10th
Greens in Regulation- 77th
Par 4 Scoring- 20th
Total Driving- 73rd
Birdie or Better %- 5th
Strokes Gained Putting- 70th
Approaches from beyond 200 yds- 7th

Bubba Watson ($8,700) – I plan to own Bubba on a lot of rosters this week. Like DJ, he is in bargain territory on price and an easy fit with the top tier salary players. He is having a great season and will be looking to close it out in dramatic fashion as a win here would vault him to the top of the FedEx Cup standings. He has Top 10 finishes in three of his last five starts and has had moderate success in Atlanta with his best effort being a 5th place finish back in 2012.

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 1st
Greens in Regulation- 13th
Par 4 Scoring- 10th
Total Driving- 45th
Birdie or Better %- 3rd
Strokes Gained Putting- 61st
Approaches from beyond 200 yds- 10th

Hideki Matsuyama ($8,000) – Hideki has not really lived up to the hype this season as he has started strong in many events only to fizzle out down the stretch. However, he has a high ceiling in terms of being able to post a lot of points and did so last week with a 7th place finish. All the stats line up well to have him ranked as a Top 10 pick this week, he just needs to stay focused. He took 22nd here last year in his only start at the Tour Championship.

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 6th
Greens in Regulation- 20th
Par 4 Scoring- 3rd
Total Driving- 8th
Birdie or Better %- 9th
Strokes Gained Putting- 87th
Approaches from beyond 200 yds- 64th

SLEEPERS

Paul Casey ($7,500) – He burned us just a couple of weeks ago, but when it comes to fantasy sports, having a short memory is one of the biggest keys to being profitable. All the statistics point to a strong effort here and he is priced in a way that allows him to fit into any sort of roster configuration that we have discussed. That there are a few owners out there still wary of injury concerns should actually help to keep him from being too widely owned and his 23rd place effort last week showed that it is less of an issue than some may have thought. In his lone appearance here back in 2010, Casey finished in 4th place.

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 9th
Greens in Regulation- 4th
Par 4 Scoring- 14th
Total Driving- 10th
Birdie or Better %- 33rd
Strokes Gained Putting- 122nd
Approaches from beyond 200 yds- 6th

Brooks Koepka ($7,300) – It was not a real pretty effort overall last week for Koepka, but at least it looked like a step in the right direction after butchering the 1st Round at the BMW Championship. He finished with enough points last week to justify his price and he will likely do that again this week. In a stars and scrubs lineup configuration, I think Koepka is a must start play as the downside risk is mitigated without a cut and Brooks will put up points even if he does struggle through stretches this weekend.

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 32nd
Greens in Regulation- 16th
Par 4 Scoring- 8th
Total Driving- 43rd
Birdie or Better %- 7th
Strokes Gained Putting- 18th
Approaches from beyond 200 yds- 19th

Daniel Berger ($7,200) – Welcome back, Daniel Berger. I am not exactly sure what you did to fix your game, but great work getting back on track to finish the season with a bit of a flourish. After a 12th place finish in Boston, he followed that up with a 2nd place finish at the BMW Championship last weekend. I kept waiting for the meltdown to happen and surprisingly, it never materialized. Along with Koepka, I think Berger is another player that you should be starting this week without the threat of a cut in play. He may not be as strong as last week, but the talent is there and he will score enough points to justify his salary.

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 35th
Greens in Regulation- 31st
Par 4 Scoring- 84th
Total Driving- 21st
Birdie or Better %- 35th
Strokes Gained Putting- 138th
Approaches from beyond 200 yds- 14th

Of course, there are a few others that I will be sprinkling into lineups this week in that lower range. Kevin Na, Danny Lee, Harris English, Robert Streb and Jimmy Walker are a few of the players that I will utilize to fill in the blanks for rosters as each certainly has shown that they are capable of putting up points. However, the ten players that I wrote up this week are the primary golfers that I will be building most of my rosters around this weekend so the emphasis should be placed on those players first.

That rounds out this first season for The Daily Spin. Thanks so much for all the support and stick with us as we have some great feature pieces coming in the weeks ahead that will only be available until the end of the year. Also, the next season kicks off in just a couple of weeks so it will not be long until we are back and finding next season’s diamonds in the rough before the rest of the novices catch on.

Good Luck!

-myzteriouzly

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