The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – The Sony Open

That sense of dread that NFL fans are starting to feel right now is slowly creeping through the DFS community. With each passing Sunday, we approach the final Sunday of the NFL season and to DFS players, this means some pretty serious withdrawal pains. As folks cling to this final week of four playoff games where there is just enough juice to keep cash games and GPP events active, the PGA moves into its first full regular event of 2017 and as always, I want to extend a warm welcome to those poor souls who discovered DFS this NFL season who will soon be seen at family picnics, getting dragged on errands with their wives and flipping aimlessly through the channels each Sunday in search of the fix they need to keep their fragile existence moving steadily onward. I too once a part of your ranks, laying on the couch, lying to myself about watching other sports for the love of the game… What I want you newcomers to DFS golf to know is that Sundays do not have to become a black hole until September because once you get hooked on…I mean, discover how great DFS is for golf, your Sundays will again be filled with joy (and occasional bouts of madness).

I know that there are a lot of new readers this week so I am going to do my best to re-introduce some concepts on strategy and how to approach the tournament this week. Most of it probably seems fairly obvious to the seasoned veterans joining us, but some of the ideas are important to think about even if you have mastered the game. Many of you jumped into the first event of the year last week and had some nice results. The Tournament of Champions is always a fun way for us to start the year. The top players in the field typically shine and it is a smaller field without a cut which means there is a strong likelihood that the winner found his way onto at least a handful of our rosters for the week which will not be the case once we get back into large, 150 player fields for most of the regular events on tour.

Justin Thomas managed to take home the third title of his career last weekend at Kapalua. Thomas has now won three events in small, no cut events, taking down the CIMB Classic in China twice and the TOC in Maui last weekend. I am not necessarily sure that this little nugget of information is terribly crucial in our analysis of Thomas moving forward, but it is at a minimum, something to keep in mind in the years ahead. While my overall exposure to Thomas was light, I did own a lot of shares of the next three golfers on the leaderboard in Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth and Pat Perez. This pushed me into the money across the board in my cash games and helped me to a couple of decent finishes in some of the smaller GPP events.

The tournament played out largely as expected with the top players in the field finding their way up the leaderboard as the weekend wore on. Spieth started very slowly on Thursday, had to fight through a double and triple bogey on Friday and still managed to rally back to tie for 3rd place by Sunday. Again, as was the case many times last season, it was handful of blowup holes where things got away from him and he put up big numbers. Beyond that, he looked the same sharp Spieth that we have come to expect sine his tremendous 2015 season.

Hideki played as advertised and found himself in contention until the 17th hole on Sunday. In typical Hideki fashion, the guy just could not make a putt in the final round to give himself any kid of momentum, even after Thomas tried to allow him a chance to close the gap when shanked his second shot on the 15th hole and posted a ridiculous double bogey. While many are high on Hideki and want to crown him as a major champion this season, I have a strong feeling that his putter will never be good enough to elevate him to a major championship where there is always additional emphasis on the flat stick. Now, I am not bold enough yet to say that Hideki will not win a major, but those types of greens have a way of breaking players mentally and Hideki gets frustrated every time he hits an approach shot, even through the inevitably end up within 20 feet of the cup. I do not think he is cut out to win at Augusta or a US Open style course, both of which have notoriously challenging greens. His game is not a perfect fit for The Open so that really leaves the PGA Championship which I believe will be his best shot at winning a major.

The rest of the field did not offer too many surprises. The players in the $6k range offered little in terms of making a charge for the title as Jim Herman looked good the first day, but then slowly fell back to finish in 12th, which was the best finish for the lower priced players last week. Fabian Gomez could not keep up, Jhonny Vegas looked atrocious and even the few players who started well could not keep up. The winning strategy for the week largely ended up being a balanced lineup that included Spieth or Matsuyama (not both) followed by the right combination of secondary players (starting w Thomas). Hitting players like Pat Perez, Jimmy Walker and Patrick Reed helped my teams to keep pace, but the additions of Si Woo Kim and Branden Grace ended any opportunity for a meaningful finish.

This week, the tour shifts over to the island of Oahu for the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club. Although the tour is still in Hawaii this week, the course this week is quite different than Kapalua. No longer will players be able to just blast the ball off the tee without having to worry about where it lands as Waialae has much narrower fairways. It plays as a Par 70 with two reachable Par 5’s and many challenging Par 4’s over its 7044 yard length. While the layout tends to be more difficult, I do not expect it to be that bad this week as the winds are usually the toughest part of the course and weather is not looking like a factor this week with light winds of 3-5 mph from Thursday to Saturday and then picking up to 9 mph on Sunday. I would anticipate a winning score of somewhere in the same range as last year when Fabian Gomez posted a -20 to win the event.

The field this week is much stronger than what we would normally see for this tournament. Jordan Spieth and Hideki Matsuyama both stuck around after the TOC to play here which gives the pricing structure an interesting dynamic at the top. Fortunately, there is so much talent in the middle of the field this week that building  rosters with or without them is not all hat difficult. For players that are new to DFS golf, this is a good week to experience your first no cut event as you are not going to have to stretch yourselves thin unless you really force the issue by using two of the players at the top that are above $10k.

This pricing structure is one that you will see from time to time throughout the year. It is really important as a DFS golf owner to understand how players are priced in terms of whether it seems soft or if it is very difficult to build rosters. I could end up being forced to eat my words over the weekend, but I anticipate that there will be more lineups than average that get six players through the cut. Last season proved to be a bloodbath in most weeks with a very low percentage of the field getting a full roster through the cut. I am extremely curious to see if DraftKings has made a conscious decision to price golfers in a more user friendly manner this year to ensure more rosters make it to Sunday fully intact. Why would they do this? My thought is that if users see most of their teams destroyed by Friday afternoon, it leaves them with little to cheer for when they finally get a chance to watch the event over the weekend. Imagine the NFL games starting on Sunday and seeing your teams out of contention before kickoff. It leads to a less satisfying player experience which in turn leads new players to move on if they get frustrated.

While I am not sure that the intent of DK was to make it easier this week or for the entire season, this is something that you should be paying close attention to throughout the year. If in fact it does become easier to get six golfers through the cut, it will have a direct impact on the type of strategy that we employ. For cash games, it means that you need to play it pretty straight forward each week and take very few chances, essentially getting as boring as possible with your teams. Mistakes in cash games from other players would become more exploitable. Last season, getting five of six through the cut or even a good four of six team through the cut could get you into the money. That was good and bad if you understood the trend. If you knew during the season that getting six through the cut was highly unlikely throughout the year, you could focus each week on taking more chances at the top of your lineup in trying to shoot for having the winner on your roster making a stars and scrubs approach much more viable. However, if the percentage of players getting full rosters through to the weekend were to jump this year, it would behoove players in cash games to tighten up their play to make sure that they were a part of the new trend. Now, I am not suggesting that this is a forgone conclusion this year and golf does have a way of surprising even the most seasoned of players, but roster construction is a fluid process and something that needs to be carefully considered not just in the space of a single week, but rather as a trend to be examined closely throughout the season.

Before we jump into my picks for The Sony Open, I want to share with you our key stats for the week, provided as always by our friends at Fantasy Golf Metrics:

Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 25%
Strokes Gained Putting: 20%
Par 4 Scoring: 20%
Birdie or Better%: 15%
Bogey or Worse%: 10%
Proximity 175-200 yards: 10%

As always, please feel free to get in touch with us anytime you have any strategy questions or concerns. We do our best to answer every email that we receive on Wednesdays, even if our reply is brief. Also, be sure to come check me out tonight on Periscope (through Twitter) at around 9pm Central Time. I usually take questions for about an hour or so until I am too tired or they run out.

[cointent_lockedcontent view_type=”condensed buyButtonOff”]
Our cash game focus this week is going to keep us in a range between $6.3k up to as high as $9.9k. I am not sure that you need to go up to get any of the studs at the top, although if you did want to get one, it still will not be that tough to fill out the rest of your roster. However, I am very comfortable with the players available this week in the middle range of the salary tier who I believe have just as good of a chance to win as the guys up top so most of my exposure in cash will come from players in this range as opposed to a stars and scrubs strategy.

The texture of the field this week is fairly strong compared to most weeks throughout the year. While there are some events each year where I can scarcely build a single roster to my own liking, this week I like almost every single team that I have entered across the board…maybe too much so. As you go back and examine the teams that you have built this week, take a moment to notice if they seem to be too chalky. Now, I am not going to bend over backwards out of the gates in trying to nail down precise ownership trends this early in the year and will leave most of my teams alone until I start to get really comfortable with the direction players are moving this season, but I know that I am definitely starting the year on the chalky side. However, mitigating this fear to a degree this week is that there is so much depth in the field this week that it should spread ownership out a little more than normal which will hopefully keep us from running completely in line with the rest of the owners out there.

I did make the decision this week to fade Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama and Justin Thomas. This is where my lineups are going to differentiate themselves from others. I think each of those players is certainly more than capable of winning here, but there also is not anything in their respective games that would give them an overwhelming advantage on this course either. For Hideki, this will actually be his 5th start at Waialae. Incredibly, he has never made the cut here previously. Obviously, we chalk up much of that to youth as he made his debut here at age 18, but 0 for 4 is still amazing for such a talented player. Of these three, if I did want to roster one, it would be Jordan Spieth. Statistically, he is the best of the bunch for this particular course. His tee to green game, scrambling and putting put him above the other two this week. He missed the cut in his lone start here, but that was back in his rookie season of 2014. If Spieth can avoid blowing up on three or four holes like last week, he can contend, but I will not be on him this week.

I decided that in looking over the players that have won this event over the last decade that I would rather spread my ownership out over the largest volume of players who I feel could contend this week rather than focusing in at the top. To me, it does not make a lot of sense to just own a few shares of Spieth or Hideki if I believe that they are going to win an event. If I am in on those types of players, I want to be in for a big share, at least 30% so that when it hits, I maximize my winnings. I did not feel that comfortable that this event would be a foregone conclusion for one of those two players and so I elected to spend salary elsewhere instead. Now, I am not necessarily feeling overly confident about any one particular player that I am overweight on this week, but I am hoping that by building depth into my rosters that I have given myself a better chance of finding the winning golfer and that I own enough shares of that player relative to the field to make a meaningful difference.

CASH GAME CONSIDERATIONS

Jimmy Walker – $9,900
Brandt Snedeker – $9,700
Paul Casey – $9,500

Scott Piercy – $8,900
Daniel Berger – $8,800
Ryan Palmer – $8,300
Marc Leishman – $8,200
Billy Horschel – $8,000
Pat Perez – $8,000

Charles Howell III – $7,800
Chris Kirk – $7,700
Jason Dufner – $7,700
Kevin Na – $7,700
Harris English – $7,500
Hudson Swafford – $7,000
Webb Simpson – $6,800
Jerry Kelly – $6,800
Spencer Levin – $6,300

As you can see, we have 18 players here to choose from so it gives you plenty of options to mix and match. You could even include Zac Blair and Brian Harman on this list, but I felt like it was already getting lengthy as is. Given that the field is so strong this week, I would build at least three cash lineups, and maybe even as many as five. The reason for this is because we know inevitably that a few of these guys will miss the cut. If we are of the belief that a higher percentage of lineups than normal will go 6/6 this week, we want to make sure that overloading on one player does not wipe us out when the overall research that we did for the week was solid. Remember, if you’re truly looking to build your bankroll, it gets done in small incremental steps where limiting loss is an important factor in our road to success.

GPP Picks

CORE

Paul Casey – $9,500 – 60%
Charles Howell – $7,800 – 50%
Marc Leishman – $8,200 – 50%
Webb Simpson – $6,800 – 50%
Jimmy Walker – $9,900 – 40%
Scott Piercy – $8,900 – 40%

Our core players this week are guys that have a strong pedigree at Waialae and players that statistically make a lot of sense. Paul Casey gets good distance off the tee, hits fairways and is one of the best when it comes to hitting greens. His mid to long iron play is solid and he can putt reasonably well, although no elite. He finished in 30th here two years ago, but has picked up his game the last two seasons. He finished with two second place finishes last year and seven Top-10’s so he has been on the cusp of victory several times. He finished last season playing well and I expect that to continue this week.

Charles Howell III is the chalk play of the week, but I am okay with that considering his price. Howell was enjoying a career year last year before injuries took him off the course for several months. Now, he is back and starts the year on one of his favorite courses. Over the last ten years, CHIII has missed the cut only two times with six Top-10 finishes. He’s very good from tee to green and really stepped up his game on the greens last season. With CHIII, we never expect a win, but for his price, if he can play the way he has here over the last decade, it should be very easy to recoup value this week. Now, if he were priced up near $9,000, we would have to take a deeper look at Howell, but for $7,800, he will be in good shape as long as he does not blow the cut.

Marc Leishman is another name that is just super consistent in terms of making the cut, and particularly so at Waialae. He has made the cut in all seven starts here with two Top-10 finishes and none outside the Top-30 except for one 37th place finish two years ago. He is steady, though not elite from tee to green and with his putter. He handles the Par 4 holes well and his iron play is sufficient to keep him from getting into too much trouble. He should be in line for a Top-25, but he’s capable of more and given the light winds, I like his chances for a Top-10 finish.

I am not a Webb Simpson fan. He has frustrated me more than most other golfers on tour over the last two seasons. His switch from the anchor putter two seasons ago has been a slow and painful transition. Every time I think he has figured it out, he crushes me at a tournament where he has always played well. With that, he heads to Waialae having made the cut in all seven of his starts here and four Top-25 finishes. Webb is always elite from tee to green and gets it close to the pin so we just need him not to be terrible with his putter. While I might have avoided Webb if he were priced appropriately, $6,800 is just too low for a player of his caliber. At this price, making the cut gets Simpson to value and although I suspect many others will be on him, going low on salary here opens up a lot of options for us the rest of the way in building our rosters so we’ll eat a little more chalk here.

Jimmy Walker looked good last week at the Tournament of Champions. He led the field after the first round and although he was not great after that, what we saw was encouraging overall in his first start of the year. He will look to keep the momentum going this week on a course where he won titles in both 2014 and 2015. With Jimmy, his biggest weakness is off the tee. He gets plenty of distance, but was really erratic last year in terms of hitting fairways. If the winds were up this week, I would be hesitant to use him, but seeing that they are calm, I think I will jump back in on him as a core play for the second week in a row. His approach game and his putter are going to keep him in contention this week and even with the two recent wins here, given where he is priced, I do not see his ownership levels getting too far out of line making him a really good play if he has his best stuff.

Scott Piercy is another players that found himself in contention a lot last season, but just could not close the deal to win a tournament. He has finished in the Top-15 in five of his last seven starts here with a 2nd place finish as the highlight two years ago. His play can be frustrating when he is off his game, but it seemed to come together last year when he earned two second place finishes. He is one of the longer hitters off the tee in this field and plays well from tee to green. He manages to make a lot of cuts (missed just 4 last season) by keeping the ball in play and when he limits his mistakes, he is capable of winning in a field like this. I like how he looked in the fall swing with three Top-10 finishes in five starts so I think that will carry over for him well going into 2017.

SECONDARY

Daniel Berger – $8,800 – 30% – looked good a week ago, still adjusting to new clubs, two decent finishes at Waialae, 3rd in key approach distance last season, 14th in Par 4 scoring
Brandt Snedeker – $9,700 – 30% – finished in 2nd place here a year ago, excellent scrambling and putting, 2nd in Par 4 scoring in 2016
Pat Perez – $8,000 – 20% – Excellent recent form finishing 3rd last week to go along with a win and 7th place finish in the fall, four Top-10 finishes here in the last 10 years
Gary Woodland – $9,100 – 20% – coming off of a very solid season, finished 13th and 3rd the last two years here, excellent tee to green and Par 4 and 5 scoring
Ryan Palmer – $8,300 – 20% – seems really cheap for a former winner who makes cuts and has a lot of upside, Top-20 finisher his last three starts at Waialae
Chris Kirk – $7,700 – 20% – started to come into form down the stretch last year, two recent Top-5 finishes here, good tee to green, steady iron play and good scrambling
Hudson Swafford – $7,000 – 20% – has made his last 17 cuts and has two Top-10 finishes here in his last three starts, very underpriced for this talented ball striker
Billy Horschel – $8,000 – 20% – quietly played very well last season missing only 3 cuts and posting 5 Top-10 finishes, very balanced game, doesn’t get into trouble often
Jason Dufner – $7,700 – 15% – looked good last week in the opening rounds before falling back, finished 9th here a year ago, capable of winning if he can putt
Zac Blair – $7,600 – 15% – a rare Zac Blair week, he’s finished 3rd and 6th here the last two years, little guy who can handle little courses, accurate and scrambles well

TERTIARY

Kevin Na – $7,700 – 10% – always seems like a solid play and we get him for a reasonable price this week, three Top-10’s here, consistently makes cuts
Russell Henley – $8,600 – 10% – former winner here who struggled for much of last year before finding his game again near the end of the season, excellent ball striker who can scramble and putt
Harris English – $7,500 – 10% – 5/5 making the cut here w three Top-10 finishes, excellent putter, but needs to get his accuracy issues under control
Jerry Kelly – $6,800 – 10% – course horse with five Top-10 finishes in the last 10 years including three straight
Brian Harman – $7,200 – 10% – back to back 13th place finishes here the last two years. good on shorter Par 70 courses, excellent putter who plays Par 4’s well
Harold Varner $7,800 – 10% – 13th here a year ago, recently won in Australia, emerging talent with a high ceiling
Cheng-Tsung Pan – $6,600 – 10% – Accurate, hits greens, excellent putter and top ranked in Par 4 scoring on the Web.com Tour last year, should be a good course for him
William McGir – $7,900 – 5% – Played really well last week and has good balance in tee to green game and putter
Branden Grace – $7,500 – 5% – played awful last week and will be lower owned, but tends to handle the short par 70 courses well making him a good bounce back play
Hideto Tanihara – $6,400 – 5% – made the cut here in his last four starts, 8th in 2014, Top-10 finishes in 5 of his last 7 events on the Asian Tour including a win
Daniel Summerhays – $6,700 – 5% – 5/6 at Waialae, Top 20 his last two starts here, excellent putter
Spencer Levin – $6,300 – 5% – 8/8 in making the cut at this tournament
Wesley Bryan – $6,700 – 5% – elite level putter, should be rested after getting worn down towards the end of last year

Good Luck!

-myz

[/cointent_lockedcontent]