The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – The Shriners Open

So sleepy, but can’t get myself to turn off ESPN and the heads up battle at the final table of the Main Event of the World Series of Poker. What had been an exciting, interesting match has now become a slow, death march to the end. It feels a lot like my cash games a week ago where at least one player on each roster tanked and the stars did not rise to the heights we had projected. We have not seen such a poor performance out of DJ since the PGA Championship as he never got on track in any meaningful manner and took the life out of one of the optimal lineups. Fortunately, if you followed my advice of playing small last week with your bankroll, the damage should have been limited overall. What we learned is that we still hate no cut events with small fields and small contests. The lack of a cut takes away much of our normal advantage and allows for smaller margins of error with only about 50 or so players even being remotely rosterable for those evens. It is also tough in that everyone who shows up and tees off gets paid which means if they fall back (way back if they are Danny Willett) they have a nice payday waiting for them and do not really have to worry about making a run to boost them to an adequate prize.

We’re now on to the last three weeks of the fall season and the rest of the way, we get to enjoy the best parts of the fall season where we are able to watch the young, new prospects try to establish themselves on the tour. Last week, several notable new players made some noise at Sanderson Farms with Cody Gribble coming on late to take it down. Grayson Murray and Trey Mullinax also had fine performances to raise their profile up a notch or two in what was a very soft field.

This week the tour heads to Las Vegas for the Shriners Open, an event with a decent field and interesting pricing. It is almost as if DraftKings and the odds makers completely ignored the results that some of the younger players have had over the last couple of events as players like Richy Werenski, Xander Schaufelle and Trey Mullinax are all extremely cheap even after making the cut in their first two starts and have posted some promising finishes. I get a little nervous to just start throwing any low priced player into a cash game, but some of these golfers provide us with a lot of value, while also allowing us to really stack our rosters up top with what I hope are reliable players. A quick check of the odds versus pricing tab shows that each of the three players that I mentioned above are in the Top 10% of most underpriced players this week.

The tournament will be held at TPC Summerline where we have tournament history posted going back to 2004. One of the tools that is worth noting this week is something the Jeff put a lot of time into over the past few years, but something that we added quietly with little fanfare this past summer. If you look under the PGA Tools page, you will notice a tab that is labeled ‘Player Database’. Open it up each week while doing your research each week and you’ll see details on where players went to college and where they reside today. It is helpful in that it gives us a heads up on who is playing in a familiar area each week. Now, when you look this data over, it does not give you free reign to go plug in every local player in the hopes that the ‘home field advantage’ will carry you to victory, but if you take that and then cross check it with course history, it starts to paint a more complete picture for us. A few notable players with Las Vegas connections that are in the field this week include: Alex Cejka, Charley Hoffman, Ryan Moore, Kevin Na, Chad Campbell, Nick Watney (Henderson, NV) and Scott Piercy. Notice that many of them have solid course history at this event. That will not always be the case, but I wanted to make it something that I pointed out for folks today as it is a quick and easy resource to add to your process each week.

Now run a quick crosscheck of course history. Which players stand out the most this week? I highlighted the following names as players that have consistently achieved success while playing at TPC Summerlin: Ryan Moore, Scott Piercy, Kevin Na, Martin Laird, Tony Finau, Kevin Streelman, Webb Simpson, Ryo Ishikawa, Nick Watney, Robert Garrigus and Chad Campbell. Some may dismiss data like this as inconclusive or point out that it is a small sample size. If they choose not to take advantage of this edge, do not argue with them. The data looks pretty clear that those who live in the area and play here nearly every year tend to perform more consistently than their out of state competitors. So if you are looking for a great group of core players this week, the group mentioned above is not a bad place to start.

When you look at the list of players that have done well here you will notice that it is not necessarily the strongest group of putters. The course is a Par 71 and plays at over 7,200 yards, but a key piece of geographic data worth noting is that the course is at an average elevation of 2,700 feet above sea level which means that some very unlikely names will be hitting some bombs off the tee. It is somewhat similar to the effects we see in Coors Field for baseball or Mile High Stadium in Denver where every kicker has a rocket for a leg. Most of the players that have success are good tee to green guys who hit a lot of greens and give themselves a lot of scoring opportunities. The average winning score is usually in the low -20’s range so it will be important for players to take full advantage of every chance they have to make birdies and eagles.

The key stats for the week:

Strokes Gained Putting: 25%
Birdie or Better Percentage: 25%
Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 20%
Scrambling: 10%
Strokes Gained Approach: 10%
Proximity: 10%

In terms of strategy, I would normally feel comfortable playing my normal investment with a full field event with a cut. The contests are a little on the small side, so I probably will not have the same amount of action as normal, but will still have full exposure for cash games.

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The optimal lineups this week are focused on players that have handled TPC Summerlin well over the years and are generally in good form. Nick Watney returned to the tour a few weeks ago at The Safeway Open and made the cut so I am comfortable enough using him this week after a lot of time off last season due to injury. He has been so good on this course and we are able to get him for such a cheap price that it helps us round out a couple of lineups. I am never excited to use Harris English in any sort of lineup as he tends to make things a little more interesting than normal, but as we’ve discussed many times before, the guy is just an absolute cut maker having not missed in his last twelve events and being three for three here so he feels like a solid value option for cash this week.

Scott Piercy, Kevin Na and Alex Cekja all have local ties here and have each had good performances here throughout their careers which is why they each got the nod here this week. Tony Finau has been a good cut maker and obviously has a lot of scoring upside. He has finished in the Top-16 in both of his starts here and feels a like he is well priced this week for all formats. John Rahm is an elite talent that will again probably be highly owned, but does so many things well in his ability to put himself in position to score often that this should be a course that he handles well in his first start here. Both Ryo Ishikawa and Jamie Lovemark have really started to find their form again over the last few months. Ryo now has finished in the Top-10 in his last five straight starts and is three for three at TPC Summerlin in making the cut. Lovemark, after missing four straight cuts late in the summer, has now made six straight to right the ship and finished 13th here last season so I feel like we are getting him at a nice value for $7,400 this week. I did use one younger player this week in Xander Schaufelle. I normally would not take he risk, but he is priced so low this week and has played so well in making the cut in his first two events on tour and having made eight straight cuts overall going back to his stint on the Web.com Tour that I felt okay taking a shot with him as it opened up some options at the top of that lineup.

Jon Rahm – $9,800
Kevin Na – $9,500
Tony Finau – $8,600
Nick Watney – $7,500
Jamie Lovemark – $7,400
Harris English – $7,200

Jon Rahm – $9,800
Scott Piercy – $9,700
Kevin Na – $9,500
Jamie Lovemark – $7,400
Harris English – $7,200
Xander Schaufelle – $6,200

Marin Laird – $9,200
Brendan Steele – $8,800
Tony Finau – $8,600
Alex Cejka – $8,300
Ryo Ishikawa – $7,600
Nick Watney – $7,500

CORE

Jon Rahm – $9,800 – 60%
Brendan Steele – $8,800 – 60%
Tony Finau – $8,600 – 60%
Jamie Lovemark – $7,400 – 60%
Scott Piercy – $9,700 – 50%

Our core players this week are made up of guys that all play really well from tee to green, get good distance off the tee and give themselves a lot of scoring opportunities from week to week. We have discussed Jon Rahm at length in other write ups and featured him in two of our three optimal lineups again this week. He has been fairly reliable in terms of making the cut and in a soft field like this, Rahm should flourish. He gets plenty of distance off the tee, hits a lot of greens and is an excellent putter. His approach game was only a little above average last year, but he does so many other things really well and is constantly in position to score that he is an easy player for me to plug in to my core, particularly at this time of year.

Brendan Steele is off to a good start this season after taking down the CIMB Classic. Of course, last season he was in great form coming into this event as well, only to then meltdown and miss he cut for the first time in five starts. Steele really excels in the tee to green phase of his game, but did really struggle with his putter a season ago. As long as he can just be around average this week on the greens, he will have plenty of chances to score as he is one of the better players in the field this week from mid to long range with his irons.

Tony Finau will probably be a popular play this week, but he is priced well to fit into a lot of lineups. While his putting numbers will be of concern to some, he is putting on bentgrass this week which is where he actually shines and should be able to finish off many of his scoring chances for the week where he is certain to have many birdie and eagle opportunities. Finau finished in the Top-16 in both of his starts at TPC Summerlin so he should be in good shape for another solid performance.

Jamie Lovemark struggled last season after crumbling late at the Zurich Classic and losing to Brian Stuard in a playoff after having many chances to win the event. For the next few months, he made cuts, but did not finish very highly. Then he missed four straight cuts near the end of the summer. Fortunately, from that point forward, he has picked his game up and gotten on track over his last six starts. He finished 13th here a year ago and has a very similar style game as the other players in our core gaining plenty of strokes off the tee. With Lovemark, it is just a matter of if he can keep his approach game under control as he can be a little all over the place, especially with his long irons. However, at $7,400, Lovemark is definitely underpriced so it makes a lot of sense to lock in that potential upside and savings as a core play.

Scott Piercy is another player with some local ties to the area and all things seem to be aligning for him over the last few months. He has not missed a cut in his last seven starts, has Top-10 finishes in two of his last three starts and has been so close to winning several times. He has finished in the Top-25 in five of his last seven starts at TPC Summerlin and with his current form being in excellent shape, he works really well for cash games and GPP contests this week. He is not an amazing putter, but again, he will have scoring opportunities and he is becoming a much more consistent player for us in the DFS Golf world.

SECONDARY

Xander Shaufelle – $6,200 – 35% – made his first two cuts on the tour, including a 5th place finish last week, very cheap versus the odds, provides salary cap relief
Keegan Bradley – $9,300 – 20% – finally seems to have found his game again, tremendous ball striker, never great with his putter, hasn’t missed a cut since the US Open
Trey Mullinax – $6,100 – 20% – another young player that is very underpriced versus the odds this week, made the cut in his first two starts this season
Luke List – $7,400 – 20% – looked great a week ago in finishing 2nd at Sanderson Farms, a big hitter off the tee w scoring potential
Ryan Moore – $11,000 – 20% – local to the area and a former winner of the event, altitude should help his driving distance, he will contend, just too pricey for a core play
Russell Henley – $8,000 – 20% – should be a little contrarian as many owners will gravitate towards Streelman due to course form, erratic, but has Top-10 upside here
JT Poston – $6,500 – 20% – should be a little overlooked compared to the other young players, 2/2 so far this season & 9/10 overall making cuts going back to the Web.com Tour
Ryan Blaum – $6,800 – 15% – Another young player that is underpriced versus his odds this week, finished in the Top-26 in both events this season, made cut in 10 of last 12
CT Pan – $5,900 – 15% – Has struggled a bit out of the gates this season, missing the cut in both starts, but has not played badly, he is better than his price indicates
Grayson Murray – $8,900 – 15% – a little on the expensive side, but he looks like a potentially dynamic player and finished 8th last week, somewhat boom or bust play

TERTIARY

Brooks Koepka – $10,700 – 10% – a little expensive this week or I would go heavier here, has had mixed results, but obviously has the talent to win this tournament
Francesco Molinari – $10,100 – 10% – this seems a little bit pricey for Molinari, but he has played well recently w 4 Top-10 finishes and a win in his last 9 starts overall
Kevin Na – $9,500 – 10% – Local guy with a good track record here, shorter hitter who will get a boost from the altitude, former winner here w 6 Top-25 finishes on the course
Alex Cejka – $8,300 – 10% – Cejka has local ties to the course, finished 2nd here a year ago and has played well since near the end of last season
Kevin Streelman – $8,000 – 10% – excellent course form here with five straight finishes of 22nd or better at this event, will be heavily owned
Ryo Ishikawa – $7,600 – 10% – back in form and back in the US again, 5 straight Top-10 finishes overall, made the cut in all three starts here, 2nd in 2013
Nick Watney – $7,500 – 10% – back from injury, from the area and great rack record w 6 finishes in the Top-16 and 4 Top-10’s, great value play
Harold Varner III – $7,200 – 10% – big hitter who can score, fits the mode of Finau, Lovemark and others with high upside potential for his type of game
John Senden – $6,500 – 10% – 4 Top-25 finishes here, not terribly consistent, but a decent veteran player w experience for a low price
Martin Laird – $9,200 – 5% – game is trending upward, has missed only one cut since June, former winner here w only 1 missed cut in 7 career starts
Billy Horschel – $9,100 – 5% – Excellent ball striker, has kept a quieter schedule over the last five months, looked good at FedEx Cup playoffs w two Top-10 finishes
Patton Kizzire – $8,500 – 5% – finished 2nd here a year ago, up and down player, finished 2nd at Safeway, missed the cut at Sanderson Farms, game fits this course well
Harris English – $7,200 – 5% – very cheap cut maker that will occasionally show a little bit of upside, made the cut in all three of his starts at TPC Summerlin

Good Luck!!

-myzteriouzly

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