The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – The Open Championship

Welcome to The Open Championship! It is hard to believe that the third major tournament is already upon us and by the end of the month we will be finished with them for the season. I hope that all of your enjoyed last week and had a chance to play a few lineups in The Scottish Open. I have played a little bit each week and am starting to formulate some strategy ideas that have been working well over the last few weeks or so. They are worth elaborating on this week as we have a course that is similar to many on the European Tour with a lot of familiar faces for those of you that have been following it since DraftKings started contests around six weeks ago.

Jeff and I enjoyed a week without the PGA Tour and took our act on the road to Vegas for a few days to play in the World Series of Poker, attend the UFC Expo, hit the Britney Spears show (oh yes we did) and finished it off by attending UFC 200 at the new T-Mobile Arena. The trip was a blast and we both really enjoyed meeting a few of our subscribers who came out to sweat us at our event at the WSOP and stuck around to chat about DFS golf and The Open. This worked out great as I kept checking my phone on Thursday just out of habit to check for scores and had to keep reminding myself that I could actually enjoy a week off from PGA DFS!

I cannot express just how much it means to have such a great group of subscribers out there who enjoy being a part of the little community that we have established with FGI. We are so excited about it that we are considering putting together a trip for a PGA event next season where we would rent a house, attend the event and obviously talk a little fantasy golf. If you have any interest or ideas about events, let us know and we will start looking into details and the cost per person. As Jeff works in the tax industry, we would probably be looking at events after April 15th as a starting point, but if we can get 6-8 folks who are interested, we will probably be able to do something fun with it.

In looking back at The Scottish Open, Jeff and I ended up doing really well, cashing across the board in all cash games and with Jeff having a few deep runs in GPP action. Once again, carnage reigned supreme in another European event with a lot of notable names getting crushed before the cut and leaving just a handful of teams with a full roster intact (4% in the $5 Double Up). Seven of the top fifteen priced players ended up missing the cut. As has been the case in most weeks, a good 4/6 team was able to win again which leads me to want to share my initial thoughts on Euro DFS Golf.

While we are all familiar with the workings of PGA DFS each week and have thoroughly discussed strategies for both GPP and cash games, it would be a mistake to apply these lessons exactly when evaluating events on the European Tour. The biggest difference that you should notice each week is the considerable gap in talent between the handful of elite players at the top and those that fill out the event. With the tour moving from country to country each week new players are constantly shuffling in and out of the field leaving us with less reliable options to choose from in the middle and lower salary tiers. Even those players that perform somewhat consistently are prone to blow up from time to time. While PGA DFS has been a challenge this season, the Euro events have been even tougher to get a read on for those simply applying what they know from regular PGA events.

Two key factors beyond the softer fields also need to be taken into consideration when approaching play in European events. First, the cut line is different as only the top 65 players (and ties) get to play the weekend. It is a small change, but allows for a few less borderline golfers to squeeze through. The other major factor on the European Tour is that weather will come into play in a big way, particularly when the tour swings through the northern part of Europe as rain and high winds are routinely important considerations to monitor. Weaker fields, less players making the cut and tougher weather conditions have all factored into some of my initial conclusions for strategy in Euro Tour events.

For the first few weeks of European Tour events, I applied my normal research patterns and found that I was getting absolutely stomped. I used a fairly balanced approach in building my teams and focused on players who were entering events in good form and usually with at least reasonable tournament history. However, as many of the events are held at different courses from year to year, there were a lot of gaps and scant history for a few events, leaving me to rely on form and limited statistics given the fact that the European Tour does an absolutely terrible job of tracking meaningful stats. What ended up happening all too often was that I would end up with players on my roster that for whatever reason, just did not match up well with the course they were playing on in a given week. I felt like I was doing too much guess work in the first few weeks, but I noticed that most of the other DFS players were going through the same types of growing pains in adjusting to a game that while similar, was just different enough to PGA to require some key adjustments.

My first move in dealing with Euro events is to simply discard the idea of using a balanced lineup in cash games. It just has not been a winning approach for many players so far. If getting 4/6 players through the cut gives you a chance to win in cash games, it is imperative that you have one or two high scoring players on your roster. If you are choosing a balanced roster, your odds of selecting higher scoring players is a little lower than if you pay up for the stars who are typically in another class than the rest of the field.

Although the fields are much weaker than normal PGA events, the pricing for Euro events has remained surprisingly loose with plenty of reasonable players available most weeks down around the low 6k and high 5k range. My winning cash game rosters last week started of with Brendan Grace and Henrik Stenson. This ate up a little less than half of my salary cap, but then I was able to shift gears down at the bottom and found players like Callum Shinkwin, Nino Bertasio, Richard Bland and Chris Hanson all at 6k or below. I filled in my rosters with Tyrell Hatton and Ross Fisher in the middle range and was mentally prepared to see my teams get decimated again with the hope that four solid players would survive. Fortunately, all eight players that I used last week battled through the cut and I ended up with two 6/6 cash game teams. So what is the strategy here? Ahh, yes, just get 6/6 through the cut and win money….well, not exactly.

The goal for me with my Euro lineups is to lock down two golfer at the top who are near locks to make the cut. Now, Henrik started woefully slow last week in the high winds and looked like he might implode, but as the winds settled down on Friday, he cruised the rest of the weekend. Brendan Grace started strong, but then played only a little better than under par the rest of the weekend. Stenson finished 13th and Grace finished 29th which did not give us a huge number of points, but got us halfway to our initial goal of getting at least four players through the cut. The rest of the roster was composed of two middle tier players and two bottom tier players. Having locked down two players at the top, our goal is to get just two other players through which will give us a chance to cash many weeks. Since we know that few rosters will get through unscathed, but that projecting the top of the leaderboard will be a challenge, I would encourage you to let go of the thought of getting six through the cut in Euro events, and instead try to target a couple of stars at the top and then work in reasonable plays for the rest, realizing that 6/6 is unlikely, and that 4/6 will give you a chance.

Moving on to The Open this week, the tournament will take place this week at the Old Course at Royal Troon, which last hosted this event in 2004. While we have included the 2004 results on our tournament history page this week, seeing as it took place twelve years ago, I would not place too much emphasis on those results. Rather, I would look at the results from other recent years at The Open as the courses tend to play somewhat similarly and there are a handful of players who have consistently had great results regardless of which course has hosting duties for a given year.

Royal Troon is a Par 71 course that will play at roughly 7,200 yards and is a classic links style course with a lot of brush, pot bunkers and somewhat narrow and uneven fairways. It is a challenging course that will only grow tougher when the winds pick up and the rains move in on Friday. Players that can gain ground off the tee and those that can knock in a lot of birdies on some of the easier holes will have a big advantage on the field this week.

Thank you to Fantasy Golf Metrics for providing the following key stats:

Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 25%
Birdie or Better Percentage: 20%
Strokes Gained Putting: 20%
Par 5 Scoring: 15%
Driving Accuracy: 10%
Strokes Gained Off the Tee: 10%

Good luck to everyone this week and please let us know how things are going, particularly if you find yourself in contention in the Millionaire Maker. We always enjoy having an extra sweat if our teams falter. Usually we reward the best FGI finisher in the MM so tweet us your results this weekend and we’ll have something special to send out. Remember, cash games are going to be juicy this week so DO NOT forget to get your entries in to take advantage of a good situation.

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The optimal lineups were doing reasonably well until the WGC-Bridgestone two weeks ago when Brooks Koepka and Daniel Berger took out all three of our lineups with their early WDs. It was one of those situations that could not have been anticipated and is just one of those bizarre situations that will pop up from time to time in DFS golf. There was nothing we could have done differently so we just have to shrug it off and jump back in this week with three new lineups.
 
Sergio Garcia – $10,000
Matt Kuchar – $7,800
Henrik Stenson – $9,500
Phil Mickelson – $8,600
Charl Schwartzel – $7,800
Gary Woodland – $6,300
 
Phil Mickelson – $8,600
Lee Westwood – $8,500
Martin Kaymer – $8,400
Zach Johnson – $8,100
Matt Kuchar – $7,800
Charl Schwartzel – $7,800
 
Adam Scott – $10,600
Branden Grace – $9,700
Zach Johnson – $8,100
Marc Leishman – $7,400
Andy Sullivan – $7,200
Francesco Molinari – $7,000
 
The one play that makes me a little nervous this week is Charl Schwartzel. If you were unaware, Schwartzel signed a deal this week to switch over to PXG clubs who added yet another high profile player to its collection. While I do not suspect that it will hamper his game too much, it is still never fun to see a player that looked like the bargain of the week now throw in a new wrinkle at the last possible moment. The rest of the rosters are pretty straight forward with nothing too fancy on the high or low end this week. Keep your rosters clean this week. Use players with strong records at The Open over the years who are also in good form right now. From top to bottom, every player in our cash game lineups fits this well and I anticipate a big week for us.

With the softer pricing this week for a major tournament, you need to be taking a stars and scrubs approach with your lineups this week. To in the Millionaire Maker, you will need a perfect lineup which will start with nailing down the top few players on the leaderboard. I want to have as many shots as possible at finding a winner so I really cranked up our exposure at the top to three high level players and two very strong mid level players. I was not especially fond of a lot of the players in the 8-10k range this week which made my strategy that much easier to execute. One warning that I want to give before diving in too deep is not to get too infatuated with the European players who have primarily played only in Europe this season. I am still going to be using these players in my player pool, but will not overload on them. Even though they have played well on the Euro Tour, most have struggled in major events prior to this week and some do not have much of a record at all in Open Championships. I will use them sparingly with the hopes that one or two will show up unexpectedly and be very low owned.

CORE

Rory McIlroy – 60% ($11,900)
Adam Scott – 60% ($10,600)
Sergio Garcia – 60% ($10,000)
Lee Westwood – 60% ($8,500)
Martin Kaymer – 60% ($8,400)

For our core, I wanted five strong players with a lot of experience at The Open and who have had some success this season. I do not need to say much for these players. Rory McIlroy won this event in 2014 and outside of a misstep at Oakmont for the US Open, his game has been coming around over the last three months with a win and four other Top 10 finishes to his credit. He is dynamite from tee to green and if he can be good with his putter this week, he can contend.

Adam Scott has quieted down since a blistering start to 2016, but should be a threat again this week as he has posted four straight Top 10 finishes at Open Championships. He is long off the tee and can score on the Par 5’s and seems to handle the difficult weather conditions better than others. He may be a bit overlooked this week, but should be able to produce a Top 10 finish.

Sergio Garcia has not played a lot of golf this year, but it does not seem to matter. He has three straight Top 5 finishes, including a win at the Byron Nelson and he has been very strong in this event throughout his career with Top 10 finishes in three of his last five starts. His tee to green game is strong and his putting is not hurting him this year. Sergio is running out of chances to win a major so he will be very focused this week.

Lee Westwood struggled last year, but has put his personal problems behind him this year and posted a lot of quality finishes. He has five Top 15 finishes in his last six starts with the lone finish outside of that coming in the US Open when he started the day in one of the final pairings before coming undone and finishing 32nd. Westwood plays well at The Open and has three Top 10 finishes in his last seven starts and did manage a 4th place finish here at Royal Troon back in 2004.

Martin Kaymer has not played well in the US in the last couple of years, but has really turned his game on over in Europe where he has finished in the Top 15 in his last four starts. In 2014, Kaymer played brilliantly at the US Open at The Players Championship, but struggled last season and lost his tour card in embarrassing fashion. He now appears to have regained his focus and is a dark horse candidate to win the event this week.

SECONDARY

Andy Sullivan – 30% ($7,200)
Gary Woodland – 30% ($6,300)
Phil Mickelson – 25% ($8,600)
Zach Johnson – 25% ($8,100)
Francesco Molinari – 25% ($7,000)
Rafael Cabrera-Bello – 25% ($6,900)
Daniel Summerhays – 20% ($5,800)
Callum Shinkwin – 20% ($5,400)

Andy Sullivan has posted five straight Top 25 finishes and finished 30th last year at St Andrews. He has been very good at links style courses and plays his best golf in Europe. He offers some upside and a bit of salary cap relief at his price.

Gary Woodland is enjoying one of his best seasons on tour, having missed just two cuts in seventeen starts. Though he has not had huge success at The Open, he has made the cut in all four of his starts. He is long off the tee and his tee to green game has been elite this year. He is one of the best Par 5 players on tour this season and is priced so low that he needs to do very little to earn value this week.

Phil Mickelson and Zach Johnson are the last two big names that we will be working with this week. ZJ won last year at St Andrews and Mickelson won in 2013 at Muirfield. Both players have solid histories at this event with ZJ finishing in the Top 10 in three of his last four starts and Phil with four Top 25 finishes in his last five starts as well as a 3rd place finish in 2004 at Royal Troon. Both players have had some up and down moments this year, but each is well priced and has the potential to post a Top 10 finish.

Francesco Molinari is known for his accuracy off the tee and his ability to limit mistakes. He has made the cut in five of his last seven starts at The Open and enters this week coming off of two straight Top 10 finishes. He has missed just three cuts this season and makes for a nice play with a high floor this week.

Rafael Cabrera-Bello has made the cut in three of four starts at The Open, though only once in the Top 25. He has missed just one cut in fifteen start this season with five Top 10 finishes. Statistically, RCB has been incredible this year, particularly from tee to green with only his putter holding him back. At $6,900 he is one of the best values this week and should be a strong GPP play.

Daniel Summerhays was a late addition to The Open roster of players this week after a late WD from another player and we will add him at a nice discount compared to where we normally get him. It will mark his first start at The Open, but he has been playing amazing golf over the last three months. He has missed just three cuts this season in twenty starts and has made eight straight cuts overall. He is an elite putter, accurate off the tee and although he lacks length off the tee, he has been one of the best in Par 5 scoring and Birdies or Better Percentage.

Callum Shinkwin is priced too low this week…simple as that. He is a bright young star in the making and few outside of those that play Euro DFS each week will have heard of him. He has missed just three cuts this season and has finished in the Top 10 in his last two starts. He has no course history, but is a better player than the vast majority of those priced around him and offers extreme cap relief for our core players at the top.

TERTIARY

John Rahm – 15% ($6,600)
Steve Stricker – 15% ($6,400)
Colt Knost – 15% ($5,900)
Billy Horschel – 10% ($6,800)
Tyrell Hatton – 10% ($6,600)
William McGirt – 10% ($6,200)
Harold Varner III – 10% ($6,000)
Joost Luiten – 5% ($6,800)
Bernd Wiesberger – 5% ($6,800)
Ross Fisher – 5% ($6,800)

Jon Rahm played extremely well at Oakmont and followed it up with an even stronger performance at the Quicken Loans National. The young Spaniard will look to build on his success this week and should be used to the style of course well enough to handle the challenge this week as he has the tee to green game and scoring ability to excel this week.

Steve Stricker has the type of game that is built for links style courses. He is accurate off the tee and putts really well. He has always played well at The Open and makes his first start in one since 2012. Stricker is a cut maker with upside this week and comes to us at a very low price.

Colt Knost got into the field with the withdrawal of Brooks Koepka. His tee to green game, putting and accuracy off the tee make him a nice buy at $5,900 this week and he has missed just one cut in nineteen starts this season.

Billy Horschel has not played much over the last couple of months, but has the skill set to succeed this week. He is a strong ball striker who is one of the best players in Strokes Gained Off The Tee. Horschel plays a balanced game and took 30th last year at St Andrews. He has missed just one cut all season so he has a nice high floor for us this week.

Tyrell Hatton is a 24-year-old Englishman who has never made a cut in four starts at The Open in his young career. However, Hatton has taken his game up a notch this year, missing just two cuts in fourteen starts with four Top 10 finishes. I would love to use him more this week, but his history at this event will keep me cautious.

William McGirt is having a breakthrough season having won The Memorial and finishing in the Top 10 six times this season. He ranks in the top 20 in both Strokes Gained Tee to Green and Strokes Gained Putting. He is coming off of a strong 7th place finish at the WGC Bridgestone and like many others in this category, he comes to us at a bargain price.

Harold Varner III cannot be denied any longer. For months, I kept saying to wait until he played on a tougher course, but he has just been getting better by the week having now made eight straight cuts and five Top 10 finishes on the season overall. It makes me a little nervous to use him in his first appearance on a big stage, but he seems to be improving by the week so a small buy seems reasonable.

Joost Luiten, Bernd Wiesberger and Ross Fisher are all golfers that I would love to use more of this week as they have each had great seasons, particularly in Europe. Unfortunately, neither Luiten or Wiesberger have really performed well at The Open over the years. However, I cannot ignore Luiten’s eight Top 10 finishes in Europe this year, Wiesberger’s four straight Top 10 finishes in Europe and Fisher’s record of making thirteen of fourteen cuts on the season. We will buy a small share of each in the hopes that one of them can be a difference maker this week.

Good Luck!

-Myz

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