The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – The Memorial

Welcome to the unofficial 6th major of the year! I think putting it into perspective like that really helps to fuel the fire this week so get excited as this is one of the better tournaments we get to see outside of the majors, in my humble opinion. I know that there are WGC events that have strong fields as well, but given the way the field is set at only 70 golfers and that there is no cut, plus a guaranteed payday, those events simply do not have the same energy of an event that takes on an incredible course and especially when it is hosted by icon of golf, Jack Nicklaus. Every year when this tournament pops up on the schedule all I can think about is that I need to get down to Ohio one of these years to try out one of its famous milkshakes. The food at Augusta may be cheap, but it is pretty plain when looking at some of the stops on tour that feature tasty treats.

Before we jump into this week, we need to discuss what took place at Colonial last weekend. If you could read over my text messages to Jeff on Thursday and Friday, you would see that I was as despondent as anyone in the DFS universe. Things started out rough on Thursday as I had the majority of my players in the afternoon wave and they were torched in brutal fashion. I knew that the winds would be an issue, but I had not anticipated the course playing quite so tough and in looking at the hour by hour weather reports leading up to the tournament, even on Wednesday night, I did not see anything that would have shown me that the afternoon would get crushed so badly. Of course, the winds were almost equally bad in the afternoon on both days so the differential between the waves did even out by the time play finished up on Friday.

I chuckled to myself upon checking my phone for the first time on Thursday morning to see that Louis had withdrawn. Classic Louis. If you played Louis in cash or if you ever play Louis in cash, you almost deserve to lose and cannot be that angry at Louis at this point. You know the drill with him as he is going to do this once or twice a year and he always waits until the last possible second to withdraw so it always will deal a devastating blow to your team. This is avoidable in cash games. I actually even mentioned this in the podcast last week that I never play Louis in cash games, especially when his price is up at $9k. He’s a solid player when he goes and for GPPs, I do not mind taking a shot since people are always worried about the WD which means that it does not take a lot of shares to gain leverage on the field (and keeps the pain low when he does WD) in the smaller buy-in events, but trying to target him in single lineup scenarios is going to drive you insane and make you hate DFS so tread lightly with Oosty.

Having sidestepped that first landmine, I felt a little smug going into Thursday until my players started to get trampled. However, as the day went on, I started to realize that I was not alone in my initial despair as the entire top of the field took a beating outside of Jordan Spieth and Tony Finau. It became comical to look to see the best players in the world falling off a cliff the first day to the point where there was not much hope for a rally. I just kept telling myself to close down the app for the day and take stock at the end of the round. Though I was disappointed, I was still holding out hope for my cash game roster: Casey, Grillo, Piercy, Horschel, Sneds and Knox. Out of that group, only Sneds had played poorly so I thought 5/6 still could be a possibility if nobody took a nosedive the next day unexpectedly.

Unfortunately, the unexpected happened on Friday. Just as I started to get excited about my cash team with Sneds and Knox rallying to get well above the cut line before the afternoon wave teed off, I started to scroll down my list of players on the PGA app, and thought, where did Paul Casey go? I am sure many of you had the same sinking feeling in your stomach as I did at that moment. We’ve been to this rodeo before. What is even worse is that this has happened with him before where he has withdrawn in the middle of the tournament while on track to finish really well for the week. I grit my teeth at that point and tried to stay calm. In the $250 double up, Casey was over 70% owned so it was not an immediate killer there. However, with so many of my other high dollar players going down in flames, it meant that I had no path to victory for GPP contests.

I felt very fortunate on Friday after getting 5/6 players through the cut and into the weekend. All five players ended up finishing in the Top-25 for the week so what started out as a bloodbath ended up turning into a nice, profitable week that was topped off with a win in the FGI FanDuel contest, my second title of the year. Now we do not keep track of ‘FedEx Cup’ points for those contests, but if we did, there is little doubt that I would be leading the field by a dramatic number of points so you guys need to step it up and come knock me off my perch this week or am just going to continue to chirp every time I take it down! Here is the link to join up this week. Last week, we only had 37/50 so we did actually have a real overlay for the contest.

I had a lot of my mid range players do really well for the week. I owned lots of Grillo, Piercy, Sabbatini, Knox, Sneds, Horschel and Charley to name a few. I also had about 15% Kevin Na which in a week where he won and I hit a bunch of strong value plays, should have helped me to contend. However, I had a lot of lineups that looked like this: Blixt, Hoffman, Sneds, Na, Sabbatini and…….Jon Rahm. Here was another fun one that I found: Blixt, Knox, Sneds, Horschel, Grillo and……..Justin Rose! Between Rose, Rahm, Rickie, Casey and Poulter all blowing up for the week and badly underperforming, I just did not stand a chance in GPP contests. I had an inkling to play some Spieth and did use him in my weather wave teams on a few lineups in the $0.50 mini max, but had no significant exposure to him or Finau. With it being bentgrass, I knew Tony would be better on the greens, but I was really surprised that on a shorter, tight course that his distance would help him as much as it does on longer tracks. Needless to say, it was an odd week. I made a few hundred dollars for the week, but it was a miserable trip getting through the first couple of days to get to the weekend so hopefully, thing are a little smoother this tournament.

The Memorial is a fun event and tour officials do a nice job making sure that it is placed in an appropriate week to ensure a top notch field each year for host and course designer, Jack Nicklaus. Year after year, this event tends to be the final stop for most of the highest ranked players in the world before taking a week off to rest up for the US Open in another couple of weeks. The Canadian Open will replace the St Jude Classic as the lead in for the second major of the year, but at least it is sponsored by RBC, which invests heavily in both golfers and multiple golf tournaments which should help to get a decent field in place.

Muirfield Golf Course is located in Dublin, Ohio and is our lone stop in the Buckeye state this year. It’s a 7,400 yard course and plays as a Par 72. It may not be a perfect comp course to Augusta, but I find that the similarities work well for me when looking at the field each year to choose my players. The fairways are wide, though Augusta is more open overall and a little more forgiving. Muirfield includes many doglegs, water hazards and strategically placed fairway bunkers in the range where most bombers would land their tee shots with driver so it tends to be much more of a second shot course than at first glance which means that you will see some players club down to 3 Wood and work a longer iron shot into the green. The greens themselves are small, bentgrass and play very fast and with a good deal of undulation. Precision iron play will be the key to success or players that can scramble well to get up and down. In looking at some recent winners from 2015-2018, you can see that mid range iron play really made the difference for Jason Dufner, William McGirt and David Lingmerth over other skills like driving distance or putting. Par 5 Scoring will also be important this week. Like Augusta, all four Par 5 holes this week are relatively easy to reach in two shots for most players and those are going to be the best scoring opportunities that golfers will have this week as the Par 3s play very tough here and seven of the Par 4 holes are longer than 447 yards.

I have not yet determined the most favorable window for weather this week. Right now, Friday looks like it will be really nice all day so I do not see any issues there. However, on Thursday, it looks like there is a good chance for rain in the morning and possibly later in the afternoon as well which could create some delays. Right now, as I look at the hour by hour forecast, it appears that winds could be gusty around 9am and then again after 5pm. Be sure to check back at the link here in order to check to see how things look on Wednesday night as that should give us a good look at what to expect during the first round on Thursday.

Key Stats

Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 25%
Strokes Gained Putting: 20%
Birdie or Better Percentage: 15%
Proximity: 15%
Scrambling: 10%
Driving Accuracy: 10%
Par 5 Scoring: 5%

 

Finally, before we get into the Player Pool this week, I want to take a moment to bring your attention to a charity that is very important to me and one that I think about often this time of year. As many of you know, I was fortunate enough to serve in Air Force for 11 years as a pilot. During my time at the Academy and while I was on active duty, I had the opportunity to serve with some of the most incredible people that you can imagine. It is an amazing honor to have served with so many special men and women, particularly as our time of service took place from just before 9/11 with many of my closest friends still serving today.

One of the things that you are never fully prepared for even though you anticipate it happening, is the loss of good friends in the line of duty. In your mind, you prepare for it, but it never hits you until a name and a face and a trip to Arlington National Cemetery to visit departed friends takes place that the reality sets in. I have two very close friends that I lost over the years that I was close to going all the way back to my time at the Air Force Academy in Colorado. Mark Graziano went through Basic Training with me at school and we were in the same squadron for two years before graduating together. We both went on to pilot training and each ended up with the same base and aircraft initially upon earning our wings. We were roommates together as the war in Iraq kicked off at the beginning of 2003 and in the years after that, he went on to fly the U-2 and then entered Test Pilot school where he died near the end of the program in a training accident out near Edwards Air Force Base. The 10 year anniversary of his passing was last week. I’ve attached a short column about him here.

Another good friend, Derek Argel, passed away in 2005 when the helicopter he was flying on crashed in Iraq. Derek was in Special Ops and it was no surprise that he ended up going on that career path. When he arrived at the Academy in 1997, he had finished not one, but two years of prep school beforehand and entered as a recruit for the water polo team. As a second year cadet, I was his adviser during his freshman year in our squadron. He was not a guy that needed a lot of extra motivation as he was about 6′ 5″ and carried very little body fat on his frame. While it is customary for upper classmen to push the freshmen hard in physical training, you did not want to be the one to drop down to start doing pushups with Derek. If you did make that mistake, you needed to be ready because he wasn’t going to stop until you couldn’t continue. Derek was everything you would expect from someone in his position and more. Sadly, he left a wife and 10 month old son behind when he died on his first tour overseas. You can take a moment to read about him here if you like.

I bring this up as it was Memorial Day on Monday and it always makes me stop to think about those who we’ve lost over the years in service of our country and especially those folks that I was close to during my days of service. But while we recognize and remember those who have fallen, we must also remember those family members that those soldiers left behind. Five years ago, two of my closest friends from the Academy and my days of service, Matt and Micaela Brancato, decided to turn their home in Detroit Lakes into a retreat center for the widows of service members who had passed away in the line of duty. Each summer, they bring several groups of spouses of fallen service members to their retreat center where they can seek counseling, guidance, camaraderie and relaxation in a safe space for them to grieve with one another. It’s a charity that means so much to me so if you are looking for a great way to give back to the people who have sacrificed so much, please do visit the website here and consider donating a few dollars to this amazing organization.

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