The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – The John Deere Classic

Much like the FedEx St. Jude Classic, the John Deere Classic is a bit of foreplay before the real action next week at The Open at St. Andrews. As such, I want to take some time to talk over some adjustments that I would advise in terms of strategy and bankroll management. As there are not nearly as many strong players in the field, DraftKings has taken a fairly aggressive stance in their pricing this week. A lot of players that are normally priced in the $6000-7000 range are up in the $8000-9000 range this week. That presents both an opportunity as well as a trap.

Before I jump into the strategy piece this week, I want to give a quick recap on how my picks performed last week. If I start from the bottom and work my way up, it’s a fun exercise for us. I want to start by patting myself on the back for ‘discovering’ Maverick McNealy. At one point on Day 3, he actually reached the Top 20 before falling back on Sunday, but when you get a made cut from a player that only cost $5600, you are way ahead of the field. I am excited to report that I have a similarly strong play for all of you this week as a follow up. Now, some of you folks actually need to trust me enough to take a chance on my deep sleeper this week. I was the lone owner of Mav in the $300 GPP and 6 people owned him out of 993 in the $9 GPP. Next, I picked up Chad Collins at $5900 and with two holes to go on Sunday, it looked like he would actually win the tournament before posting a bogey on the Par 5, 17th hole and another bogey on the 18th to fall back to 6th place. I picked up Scott Brown at $6200 and once again, a sleeper outperformed his price with a 37th place finish. Things were looking good at that point

Unfortunately, things got a little rocky from there. The usually reliable John Peterson absolutely crushed us with a brutal putting display that only Lucas Glover could be proud of. He shot a bogey and birdie free round of golf last Thursday before succumbing on Friday after a triple bogey early in his round to ensure that he missed the cut. For a course that did not require great putting, Peterson went out of his way to make sure it hurt him. However, he is still a very entertaining Twitter follow and has been dependable for us this season so all will be forgiven…eventually.

The real hurt came from two of the top players in the field in Bill Haas and Webb Simpson. Haas had a nice first day and was cruising along in Day 2 before  hitting back to back shots into the water on 16 posting an 8, which he never recovered from. It crushed a handful of my GPP teams and I’m sure it hurt a few of yours as well. Webb Simpson crumbled midway through the first round and came undone the second round. I thought the Greenbrier would be a good place for him to get back on track as the road has been a little bumpy lately outside of his home course at The Wells Fargo. A lot of little things are just off in his game right now, not just his putting. Although his putting is still hideous. I actually had a roster with McNealy and Collins on it, only to have it ruined by Simpson’s failings. Fantasy Golf takes no prisoners.

A couple of players that I liked just missed the cut in Daniel Berger and Will Wilcox. Both were off my just a stroke. This was actually the third time this season that Wilcox has missed the cut by a single stroke. Both guys are talented players. What we have here is something very similar to the stock market. When the market nears its peak, everyone gets on board, people are buying for no other reason than the fact that others are buying. Then the market crashes and the average investor is nowhere to be found. You see this with the drop in a player’s price. They fall and fall and fall some more and everyone stays away. At some point, this player will put in a good round and nobody will notice. The next week, they will come back and put in an even better effort and nobody will pay attention. Eventually, this player has had 6 straight solid tournaments with a couple of Top 10s and their price has risen from $6300 to $9000 (Robert Streb). At that point, you have missed your opportunity to profit as the value has been squeezed out of the play. As with stocks, you do not want to be chasing the crowd, you want to be ahead of it.

Our other picks played well. Brendan Todd finished in 6th place and could have been in the mix at the end had he just been able to knock in a few more putts. Steven Bowditch continued his recent streak of quality performances with a 13th place finish. Despite worries about the death of his caddie’s father, JB Holmes soldiered on and finished in 22nd place, a slight disappointment. Pat Perez continues to play consistent golf this season as well, tying Holmes for 22nd. Keegan Bradley looked to be dead in the water on Friday before storming back late to make the cut. A strong -6 performance on Sunday left him tied for 29th. Kevin Na (32nd) and Brendon de Jonge (60th) each had their moments, but could not put themselves in position to contend on Sunday.

The next issue that I want to take a minute to address is strategy for this week. As we saw with the St Jude last month, this is not a deep field so DraftKings is really mixing it up on its pricing model for the week. So, the question becomes, how do you want to play it this week? My answer after much consideration is to be a little cautious in your approach this week. With such a weak field, there are going to be higher priced players missing the cut. The balanced approach is not going to be so balanced this week. If you look at the field, outside of a handful of players right at the top of the salary tiers and also at the bottom, making or missing the cut will be much tougher to predict this week. Those players that were such a bargain a week ago are now priced in a range where they must do more than simply make the cut in order to live up to their price. I will personally be limiting my cash game exposure this week. As consistency is of the utmost importance for cash games, with the higher level of variance this week, the value just is not there relative to other weeks.

As far as handling GPPs, embrace the volatility this week. Here is where we have some real opportunity. If the players in the $8000 range are basically $6500 players in disguise, you do not need to fear the pool of scrub players nearly as much as normal. My guess is that there will be a fairly even distribution across the salary tiers for who ends up making the cut this week. If I can get the same value for a lower price and about the same amount of risk, I will exploit that advantage while others are fooling themselves into thinking they have a safe roster.

Now, the names that we look at may at first seem a little unusual, but rest assured, they have been well vetted over the last few days. If you are putting together dozens of lineups for the $3 GPP, you will have a lot of sleeper options to mix and match. Not all of these will pan out, but a lot of the names I chose for the week are going to be overlooked by the field and should give you an edge over competitors when they hit and few others in the field are owners. With GPPs, some differentiation is the important in building a successful GPP lineup. There are those that argue that there is no difference between a cash game lineup and GPP lineup. However, if you look at the lineups this week that prevail in the GPPs, do you think they will be composed of players that are all widely owned or will those winning teams have several key players owned by under 10% of the field? Ownership projection should play a big role during your lineup construction process. It is why I recommend it as a starting point each week as soon as the salaries on players is released. As you put together each team, crosscheck it against your ownership projections. You do not have to avoid every player you think will be highly owned, you should simply avoid stacking too many of them together on each of your teams.

The for this week’s course, the John Deere Classic is played at the TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois. It is a Par 71 and measures in at just under 7300 yards. There are four Par 3s and three Par 5s. It is one of the easier courses on tour so players who shoot a lot of birdies will be very useful this week. I also looked at Total Driving as accurate players tend to play well here. However, as has been the case over the last few weeks, Greens In Regualtion is king this week. The greens are large here so hitting the greens is just a starting point. Those players that excel in proximity to the hole will hold an advantage over those that simply get to the green. Putting is important, but a good tee to green game combined with being strong in proximity to the hole can mitigate some of the risk for those that struggle with the flat stick. To recap, I looked strongly at current form and history to begin my research this week, as there are some amazing course horses in the field. I followed that up by looking at players that hit greens and are reasonably accurate. As always, strokes gained tee to green played a roll, proximity to the hole and lastly, strokes gained putting. Another little mentioned factor that I like to look at when evaluating a field is in looking at those players that grew up or played often in the area. There are several players this week that played at The University of Illinois and I am going to highlight a couple of them for you.

As always, best of luck this week. Do not get too crazy in terms of your bankroll exposure this week. These events prior to major tournaments can be really tricky so take advantage of the volatility and play a few more GPPs and be a little more cautious in approaching cash games. Understand that there is probably just as much risk for players around $8000 as there is for a lot of players below $7000 so open it up a bit in terms of the players you look at for this event.

The last thing I want to leave off with before getting to player recommendations is to wish my business partner, Jeffrey Bergerson a Happy Birthday this Thursday, July 9th. We’ve been friends since the age of 5 and wagering on sports shortly thereafter. He was the one that first conceived the idea for Fantasy Golf Insider. Not many people have the opportunity to work on a venture like this with their best friend and it’s been a blast getting this thing off the ground together. Make sure you all give him a shout this week!

 

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BLUE CHIPS

Jordan Spieth ($13,700) – It is pretty rare that I recommend the most expensive player in the field, but I must grant an exception for Jordan Spieth this week. One of the reasons I like to wait on writing my column is so that I can collect as much information as possible from others inside the industry to figure out where they line up on certain players. It appears that most folks are telling their subscribers to fade Spieth this week. I understand the rationale here. With The Open only a week away, most believe that Spieth will have his mind on other things. Last month, Dustin Johnson withdrew from the St Jude Classic after getting off to a poor start, claiming illness. I just do not believe that Spieth has that sort of quit in him. I look at the RBC after The Masters as proof for my theory. Spieth played at Hilton Head the week after he won The Masters and came out the first day looking pretty shaky. However, he pulled it together on Friday and ended up finishing the tournament in 11th place. Plus, Spieth has finished in the Top 10 the last two years, including a win in 2013. Spieth ranks 46th in Total Driving, 53rd in GIR, and 3rd in Strokes Gained Tee to Green. He ranks 16th in proximity, 20th in Strokes Gained Putting and 2nd in Birdie average. He also ranks 1st in Par 4 scoring so basically, he checks every box I looked at. If you are worried about him making value for you, I have a couple of quick points. First, it is one of the easier tournaments so players are going to put up big points on DraftKings this week. Second, with a lot of my recommendations in the lower price ranges, if those players simply make the cut, they are going to exceed value by such a large stretch that Spieth will not need to put up quite as many points to be effective in a lineup. If you plan to fade Spieth, it might be better to think about doing it next week when he is actually tired and his body has not adjusted to the time change completely by the time he tees off on Thursday.

Zach Johnson ($11,400) – Have no doubt in your mind that Johnson will be among the highest owned players this week and for good reason. He has dominated this course over the last six years with a first place finish, three second place finishes, a third and a 21st place finish. Johnson has seven Top 10 finishes on the season and has really picked up his game since a rough patch at the start of 2015. Johnson ranks 9th in accuracy, 68th in Total Driving and 57th in GIR. He is not a great proximity player, but his tee to green game has been great (16th) and this has led to him producing a lot of birdies (25th). His putting has not been great, but he is giving himself enough chances to succeed so that it has not damaged his game as much as others. He will be a very popular play, but it is tough to leave him off of your rosters with such a strong course history.

Kevin Kisner ($10,700) – Behind maybe Jordan Spieth, Kevin Kisner has become the most dependable player in terms of fantasy point production. Following a stint where he could not make the cut in early 2015, he has rolled from the beginning of March until now. He has five Top 10s in the last three months, including three second place finishes where he was defeated in a playoff round. He is not cheap any more, but certainly dependable and did manage a 20th place finish here last year. He ranks 29th in Total Driving, 71st in GIR and 51st in proximity. He ranks 40th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green and 42nd in Strokes Gained Putting. He’s dependable, however, and given the lack of talent near the top, there are very few options for you to plug in along the way that can you’ll be able to count on to this degree.

VALUE PICKS

Steven Bowditch ($9100) – Were it not for Kisner, Bowditch would likely be the best turnaround story of the season. Since his win at the Byron Nelson, he has posted three more Top 25 finishes. At the John Deere Classic, he finished 11th last year and 12th in 2013. Bowditch fails our Total Driving criteria, but is an adequate tee to green player (72nd) and putter (64th). The reality is that given his improvement from mid-season to now, his stats are a little distorted. What cannot be disputed is that Bowditch is playing well, which in my mind, tends to trump other factors when it comes down to whether or not I select a player.

Justin Thomas ($8700) – Coming down the stretch last Sunday, it looked like Thomas would finally have his breakthrough moment. Instead, he had what may become a defining moment as he unraveled in Sergio-esque fashion and finished 54th. As the cameras zoomed in on him at 18, he looked despondent. However, this week is a new week, and Thomas possesses a lot of traits that work really well for the course at hand. He ranks 70th in Total Driving, 65th in GIR and 28th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green. When he gets into a zone, he can score a lot as well, ranking 11th in Birdie Average and 10th in Eagle Average. He ranks 2nd overall in Par 5 scoring so expect him to be in position often to put up points this weekend. Despite the fact that Thomas finished 54th last week, he was still able to accumulate 85 fantasy points so that shows me that he does not need to be high on the leaderboard to reach value for our purposes. His recent form has been a bit spotty with a couple of missed cuts, but with five Top 10 finishes this year, he is worth the risk in GPP formats. There is a bit of buzz around Thomas so I am not anticipating that people will be deterred by his finish last week and do anticipate moderate to potentially higher levels of ownership on Thomas this week.

Shawn Stefani ($8600) – Every time I looked at his score last week, I kept wanting to congratulate myself and realized over and over that I had not included him in my column. As a player I have written up many times, I am always a little surprised when I look back and see he was left out of the column. He was somewhat highly owned, but this time around, played superbly and landed in 13th place. Stefani is enjoying a lot of success this year with three Top 10s and ten Top 25 finishes in all. He finished in 13th here last year, although he did miss the cut in 2013. He looks great statistically ranking 34th in Total Driving, 22nd in GIR, 51st in Strokes Gained Tee to Green and 39th in Strokes Gained Putting. He also has the ability to score like the other players we like this week, ranking 17th in Birdie Average. One thing he will need to do is to avoid a slow start. Round 1 tends to be his worst round each week so hopefully, he can get off to a fast start so we do not have to put him onto our cut watch team Friday afternoon.

Tony Finau ($8500) – After being on the bandwagon early in the year, Finau broke my heart a couple of different times as a sleeper play before picking his game up enormously over the last two months en route to 7 straight Top 25 finishes. His price had climbed to a point where it was tough for him to deliver value, but somehow, after a 13th place finish last week, his price declined by $1400. That’s a nice deal for us, especially in this soft field where a talented young player like Finau could break through for a win. He is not the most accurate player off the tee, but does hit it about as far as anyone on tour helping him to a ranking of 89th in Total Driving. He has steadily improved in hitting greens as well where he ranks 56th. His tee to green game (33rd) is very good, particularly in this field, although his putting is below average (137th). However, he does ranks 14th in Birdie Average and is in the Top 50 in Par 3, 4 and % scoring so I anticipate that Finau will continue his string of solid performances this week.

And this is the point in the column where the names that you see will be a little bit different than normal. From $8400 on down, the pricing is pretty interesting and there are a lot of names that would never crack $8000 that are up here this week. I feel like the risk on pretty much any of the players mentioned from here to the end of the column is very similar whether they are priced at $8300 or $6200 in the sleeper category. By that, I mean that if you look at the field below $8500, I think that the distribution of those missing the cut will be pretty even from that price on down.

Bryce Molder ($8400) – A lot of people are going to grab Jerry Kelly at this price and that is precisely why I am not going to do that here. I think the trajectory that Molder is on right now is a little bit better that Kelly and his recent history at this event, while not quite as eye catching as Kelly’s is still respectable. Molder is playing really well as of late, having made the cut in seven of his last eight events. He has also performed well at The John Deere finishing in the Top 30 in three of his last four starts. He’s an accurate player (47th) although he’s below average hitting greens (128th). His tee to green game languishes (139th), but his putter helps him to make up for it (16th). $8400 feels like a steep price for Molder, but he has scored over 80 fantasy points in four of his last eight starts so it is not unreasonable to think he would have the chance to deliver value this week.

Scott Langley ($8300) – Here is another player above $8000 in new territory this week. I was disappointed to see Langley finish so strongly on Sunday last week as I think his final round pushed his price higher than it would have been otherwise. What I like with Langley is that he played his college golf at The University of Illinois so he is familiar with this course and should have a little extra spark to play well this week. Over the last two years, that has worked out well for him with 27th and 33rd place finishes respectively. He has also been steadily improving upon his finishes over his last three starts going from 68th, to 25th, up to 13th a week ago so he is certainly trending in the right direction. Statistically, Langley is a disaster. There is not one good stat that I can point to that would make him look like a great match for this course, or really any other course. The play is all about very recent form a little history with the course and a desire to play well at home, which he has over the last couple of years. This is a pure feel play.

Chris Stroud ($8000) – For whatever reason, this seems to be the time of year where Stroud revives himself to put together a few decent finishes. Stroud finished 37th at The Greenbrier, 10th at The Travelers and 31st at The Memorial (with a missed cut at St Jude in the middle). He has also made six out of six cuts here so I am going to see if I can ruin another cut streak by discussing it in my column. Outside of his high rank at Par 3 scoring (9th), Stroud ranks poorly in most other statistical categories this week. Again, recent history and a very respectable course history are the biggest metrics that I am relying on here to make this selection.

SLEEPERS

Chez Reavie ($7100) – It hurt me just to write his name here. When you have a player on the list that has struggled throughout the year like Reavie, it is tough to look at the things that are positive in isolation. However, that is why I get paid the little dollars over here at Fantasy Golf Insider. Before you dismiss Reavie out of hand, let me make the case for him. Reavie has quietly finished in the Top 25 of his last three events, piling up fantasy points for those willing to stomach the risk. This has also been a good course for Reavie where he has made the cut in four of five starts with a 15th place finish in 2013 and a 5th place finish in 2011 as the highlights. Unlike some of the other scrubs this week, Reavie does do a few things well. He ranks 4th in accuracy, 37th in GIR and 71st in Strokes Gained Tee to Green. He does not putt well (148th), but ranks 9th in proximity which should help to mitigate the issue a bit. The fact that Reavie makes the column this week should tell you that putting a smaller percentage of your bankroll in play than normal is probably the smart play this event.

Chad Campbell ($6800) – Speaking of cut streaks that I can jinx, let me take a shot at wrecking Chad Campbell’s mark of seven out of seven cuts made at TPC Deere Run, where four of those finishes have been in the Top 15. Campbell is a really nice risk versus reward play here at this price. I will own Scott Langley at $8300, but the risk in owning Campbell is virtually identical and the value potential may be even higher for him. Campbell has put together a streak of making three cuts in a row finishing 37th at The Greenbrier, 25th at The Travelers and 8th at St Jude. He is accurate off the tee (57th) hits greens (44th) and is okay tee to green (77th). He ranks well in proximity to hole (39th) to go along with being an average putter. In terms of scoring, only his Par 3 average (24th) stands out. He is not a standout play, but if he extends his cut streak to eight, he will deliver overwhelmingly for us in terms of value.

JJ Henry ($6500) – I need more alcohol to keep writing some of these names. Henry has had his share of struggles this season recently going through a brutal stretch where he made just two cuts in a ten start stretch. I am hoping that this is behind him after making the cut the last two times out and finishing in 13th last week. His history at the course is impressive having made six straight cuts and seven of eight overall, including two Top 10 finishes. A good part of his success here is that he hits greens and ranks 12th in that category this season. He does nothing else very well worth noting. He’s another guy that wins for us simply by making the cut this week. Anything else would be a gift.

Will Wilcox ($6400) – Although he has hurt us in back to back weeks in painstaking fashion, I am not willing to sever the relationship quite yet. Unlike many of the other players in the value and sleeper sections this week, Wilcox actually is pretty solid in most of the stats I looked at this week. He is ranked 6th in Total Driving, 13th in GIR, and 52nd in Strokes Gained Tee to Green. He ranks 25th in proximity and 45th in Strokes Gained Putting. He ranks 9th in Par 3 scoring and 13th in Par 4 scoring so he is a definite buy at this price, probably the best value on the board down here. I am holding out hope that others will be scared off or frustrated by the missed cuts, but his price is so low this week that I doubt that will end up being the case.

DEEP SLEEPERS

Vaughn Taylor ($6200) – This is a nice price for a guy that has made five of six cuts this season (with four Top 25 finishes) and averaged just under 70 fantasy points per start. He has also made the cut here in four of his last six starts with two Top 15 finishes. He has not played enough rounds to qualify for the rankings, but has been very good in total driving, GIR and tee to green play this season. I do not want to weigh those stats too heavily as they were accumulated at venues where players tend to score well, but needless to say, he has done a lot more than just show up for the events.

Brian Campbell ($6700) – What a bonus, two Cambpells in the same week. Brian Campbell comes to us courtesy of the University of Illinois this week having just finished up school there in May. Some of you may remember Campbell from his start at Chambers Bay last month where he was actually near the top of the leaderboard after the second round. Although it did not hold up and he finished in 27th, I was very pleased with his play and composure at such a difficult venue. Now, playing at a course where he has some familiarity, Campbell should be very comfortable this week. He played as a pro for the first time last week on the Web.com Tour and finished in 10th place at the Nova Scotia Open. He has the makings to be a very solid young player on tour and this is a great course for him to display his talents. Very few people will be looking at Campbell this week and considering the state of this field, he is worth putting onto a couple of teams.

Good luck this week and be sure to touch base before, during and after the event to let me know how everything is going for you!

-Myzteriouzly
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