The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – The Honda Classic
We have a new #1 player in the world this week after Dustin Johnson marched through the Genesis Open with ease last weekend on his way to another dominant win. The only question at the moment for DJ is how long his run will last. With Rory set to return from an injury next week, he probably has some work to do to work his way back into the conversation. Jason Day is struggling to put together four solid rounds and is traditionally a slow starter each year before coming on strong. Jordan Spieth had a win at Pebble Beach two weeks ago, but looked human at Riviera last week as the lengthier course pressed him and his putter, normally his biggest weapon, let him down over the last couple of rounds. With DJ putting the ball as well as he has in his entire career, he will be very difficult to overtake anytime soon as that had been his Achilles Heel in the past.
The biggest takeaway for us from a fantasy standpoint last week has to be the importance of being tuned in to what is going on with the weather in the opening two rounds. Obviously, beyond the cut is a wildcard and since we never will know exactly when our golfers will tee off, looking out to the later rounds is not so important, but as you saw last week, if you paid attention to the weather and took into account our advice, you should have had some success in stacking the AM tee times. It was the second week in a row where weather proved to be a significant factor, but it will not be the last. If this is your rookie season in DFS golf, I cannot stress enough the need to thoroughly go over the weather report in the days leading up to the event. Each week on Tuesday and Wednesday night, I literally sit for 30 minutes examining the hour by hour forecast to see the likelihood of precipitation and how the winds look throughout the day.
When you are looking at the weather, note that rain will make the courses play longer as the carry off the tee is reduced. In terms of the winds, I am usually not too concerned about anything under 15mph, particularly if it is a steady state wind. However, once the winds are above 15mph and they start to gust, that is when I begin to look at the alternate tee times to see if it is weather that can be avoided. If it is a situation where we are not going to be able to avoid the weather at all, my first thought is to reduce my bankroll exposure for the week. The next thing I want to consider are who some of the better players in the field are in terms of handling the wind and who tends to crumble when the winds pick up. There is no perfect guide to knowing who will handle the conditions the best. Much of my process is feel at that point. I watched Brandt Snedeker handle lousy wind conditions at Torrey Pines in each of the last two years as well as many impressive performances at Pebble Beach where winds are routinely a factor. Naturally, when I see him in the field now and the weather is an issue, he is one of the first players I think about as an option to work through tough conditions. Unfortunately, as those who have studied this within the industry can tell you, there is not an exact player type to target for when the winds are up. A lot of the European players are used to handling tough conditions, particularly those in Ireland, Scotland or England. Guys like Danny Willett or Paddy Harrington are well known for being among some of the better players in windy conditions. While the Honda Classic is usually one where weather is an issue, as of now, it does not appear that it will be a huge factor this week. However, knowing the events where weather flares up routinely will help you to anticipate a potential mess and allow you to gain a step on your opponents who blindly throw in lineups indiscriminately each week.
We have a really interesting field this week. There are a number of exciting players here from Europe that should make the tournament a lot of fun to watch. Most are here in part to tune up for the WGC event in Mexico next week and to get some work in stateside in preparing for The Masters which is only about six weeks away. If you just started playing PGA this year, you will want to learn about these players long before they show up here at take 2nd place like Thomas Pieters did last weekend. If you look over the field of players this week and find yourself not recognizing some of the more expensive players, the odds are good they have been playing overseas the last couple of months. Most of these guys have spent a good chunk of time in the US on the PGA Tour in parts of other seasons, but this does tend to be the time of year when they begin to make their presence felt.
PGA National is a beautiful course in Palm Beach Garden, Florida that golfers will love, but that will also drive fantasy owners crazy. Just when you were starting to get used to seeing winning score in the -15 to -20 range where everyone can score at will, the tour now shifts to Florida where water is a huge factor and will swallow up about as many balls as any week on tour. Winds do not seem to be a factor this week, but I would still expect the winning score to be somewhere around -9 or -10. The course itself is just over 7,100 yards and plays as a Par 70. It is famous for three holes known as the Bear Trap, the Par 3 15th, Par 4 16th and Par 3 17th hole. Players will still need to score when the opportunities are present, but minimizing mistakes is also key. We are looking for players that can keep it in play off the tee and who are better than average at hitting greens. Speaking of the greens, there is a big shift this week as the Florida courses (and most of the courses in SEC country) feature Bermuda grass. This is definitely a factor to look at as there are a lot of players who handle Poa/Bent grass really well, but not Bermuda and vice versa.
Another nice factoid about the field this week is that we have a lot of Florida residents playing very close to their homes. Jeff and I spent a good deal of time collecting data on players from around the globe on where they went to school and where they make their residence. I am not sure how many of you have consulted our Player Database, but it is an excellent resource for finding where players attended school and where they make their residence. Not surprisingly, a lot of the players who live in the South Florida area also seem to have nice course history at PGA National where they have probably played many more rounds than what we see on the scorecards. This tool works great for finding overlooked players who may not be on everyone else’s radar for a given week.
The key stats for the week from our friends at Fantasy Golf Metrics:
Birdie or Better Percentage: 25%
Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 20%
Strokes Gained Putting: 20%
Par 4 Scoring: 15%
Par 3 Scoring: 10%
Prox 125-150 yards: 5%
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