The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview The Greenbrier Classic

Well that was an interesting week for us. The Travelers Championship tested the resolve of fantasy golf owners all weekend as the cut stagnated at -2 and wiped away many key players across the board. We continue to preach bankroll management each week and last week breathed new life into our theory on the best way to manage your funds. One of the areas that I most struggled with early on in my DFS playing career was bankroll management. I would win two or three weeks in a row, buy in deeper and deeper and pretty soon, I’d have my entire bankroll on the line in a single week. Of course, I got wiped out more than once using this boneheaded methodology.

What will help to turn your game around, as it did mine, is when you come up with a plan of action for each week going forward. Let’s run through a quick example to demonstrate how you can come up with a plan of your own. We will use $100 as our practice amount. In keeping with a reasonable amount to risk for the week, we will use $20 representing 20% of the bankroll. With that $20, we will use $10-15 on cash games and $5-10 on GPPs. If the pricing is challenging, you may want to weight GPPs a bit more as there will be a little less predictability in figuring out who will make or miss the cut. Where the field is stronger and the pricing is a little softer, weight your cash game exposure a little heavier. Make one or two cash game teams. If you build more than that, you are going to struggle to make any headway as some teams will win, others will lose and your bankroll will get raked away week after week.

With your GPP teams, build enough to give yourself a reasonable shot to win. If you have $10 for a GPP, entering one $10 lineup is a path to failure. I would much rather see you enter 40 lineups for a quarter a piece in that circumstance. Yes, your upside is not going to be as high, but your chances of profiting over time will be much higher. The top prize always carries a certain allure, but don’t get fixated on that. The goal of any DFS contest is profit. With cash games, the goal should be steady gains. With GPPs, there is going to be a lot more volatility week in and week out. The goal is to collect steady profits from your cash games, while holding steady in your GPPs until you hit that perfect tournament lineup where it all comes together and you hit that large score.

If you take one shot each week, you’re going to have a much tougher time hitting that one perfect lineup. Be patient, play small ball and allow your bankroll to build gradually. It will be tempting to go for bigger scores and sometimes it is even fun to indulge a little, especially when DraftKings throws out a Millionaire Maker contest. Go ahead and take the occasional shot. Much like diet, if you try to be too strict, the routine will grow stale. Give yourself a little leeway. Finally, keep detailed records of your play. Accountability is very important with your research and with your bankroll. When you win, adjust your play accordingly and work your way slowly into higher games. When you lose, adjust your bankroll exposure down. This is typically the toughest part of the whole equation, but if you are keeping good records, the numbers will tell you what to do without you having to put too much thought into it. If you stick to this disciplined approach and actually make the recommended adjustments up and down with how much of your bankroll you put at risk, you cannot go broke. Let me repeat that so you understand it. If you only risk 20% of your bankroll each week, you cannot lose it all as you will risk less when losing and only increase the amount waged as your bankroll climbs back up again.

In recapping last week, we ended up hitting 9 out 15 picks. At 60%, this was certainly not our best week of the season, but it was tough for the entire industry in general as most competitors lingered near the 50% range with one even falling to a bleak 44%. A few of our picks at the top performed fantastically. Paul Casey nearly pulled off an amazing comeback late Sunday afternoon before crumbling in a playoff against Bubba Watson. Brandt Snedeker was in contention until Sunday and finished tied for 10th. Harris English, Billy Horschel, Sergio Garcia and Francesco Molinari all played reasonably well in tying for 25th. Keegan Bradley and Colt Knost were up and down and finished in 39th. Our deep sleeper pick of the week, Jon Rahm made it through the cut and played well in his first action since a 5th place finish back at The Phoenix Open.

Stewart Cink and Will Wilcox each missed the cut by a single stroke as the line moved back and forth between -1 and -2 throughout Friday afternoon. It is a disappointment, but I think Wilcox missing the cut presents us with a nice opportunity for this week. Hudson Swafford started out with a nice first round before crumbling on the second day and Brandon de Jonge and Jerry Kelly could never get their game on track throughout the first two days. Finally, I managed to crush Vijay Singh’s perfect 11 of 11 cut streak, which was felt fairly predictable. I’ve targeted a couple of players this week with perfect records at The Greenbrier Classic who may or may not get kicked in the teeth after appearing on my hit list.

As we put last week behind us, we get to start anew again this week. The best part of daily fantasy sports is how quickly we get to dump one roster, shake things off and roll on to the next week. The Greenbrier Classic is played in White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia at The Old White TPC. The tournament has been played here for the last five years starting in 2010. However, I want you to disregard the results from 2010 as the course played so easy that year that organizers moved to toughen up the course by lengthening it and altering the greens. The course now plays at just over 7200 yards and plays as a Par 70.

A lot of folks are gravitating towards the big hitters this week, but I like a more balanced approach for this event. Players who excel in ball striking should do well this week as staying accurate is important, but hitting greens is an even bigger priority. Par 4 scoring stands out among the top players each year and players who have won the event have excelled at getting up and down so scrambling will be evaluated as well. Strokes gained tee to green remains the single most important statistic for our research each week. Putting did not seem to correlate as much with success as usual for this event so while we do not want to neglect it as a statistic completely, it does take a backseat to the other metrics that we will examine this week.

And with that, we are off and running into The Greenbrier Classic. It should prove to be a fun event and help us to get warmed up for The Open, which is only two weeks away. If your bankroll permits, continue to practice building as many lineups in the $3 GPP as you intend to build for the Millionaire Maker in two weeks, whether that number is 2 or 200. Be meticulous in how you track your lineups and you will start to see improvement over time in your results. These huge entry fields are tough, but I am confident that we are going to crack that $100,000 prize before the season comes to a close. Shoot me a message by e-mail or Twitter if you are in the mix going into Sunday. I love sweating it out with our subscribers and followers, especially if my teams are struggling so feel free to give me a shout. Also, I will take lineup questions all day on Wednesday so feel free to drop by our Twitter page as I enjoy helping make those final tweaks to push your teams over the top.

BLUE CHIPS

Webb Simpson ($11,800) – Over the last four years, Simpson has finished in the Top 10 three times. This alone will make Webb one of the more heavily owned players on the top end this week. He has missed just two cuts on the season and has four Top 10 finishes, but only one in his last seven starts so he is in what could be termed a bit of a slump. Webb ranks 18th in Ball Striking and 8th in strokes gained tee to green. He’s 21st in scrambling and although he ranks 104th in Par 4 scoring, he is 9th in Par 3 scoring and 4th in Par 5 scoring. Webb will never be known for his putting, but it really has not hampered him from having success in the past and I think he makes for a great play this week in both cash games and GPP formats.

Keegan Bradley ($11,300) – Bradley started off playing great golf last weekend before languishing over the weekend. However, his form has been pretty good recently and he has missed just two cuts on the season with four Top 10 finishes. He has not had that one big breakout performance this year, but it really does feel like it could happen at any point this year. He has made the cut in all three starts at The Old White and finished in 4th place last year. Bradley ranks 23rd in Ball Striking and 14th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green. He’s 72nd in scrambling and 67th in Par 4 scoring and should be in position for another strong finish this week. He works in cash games and GPPs this week.

JB Holmes ($10,800) – Holmes has not played a lot this spring, but did play well at the US Open where he was in contention until the last day before finishing in 27th. Holmes has four Top 10 finishes this season and has finished in the Top 30 in three of four starts at the Greenbrier Classic. His game is better this year so I expect him to be in position to make a move over the last couple of rounds. Holmes is a little wild off the tee and ranks 88th in Ball Striking. However, his tee to green game is sharp and he ranks 11th overall. He ranks 46th in Par 4 scoring and although not much of a scrambler, I think Holmes is going to be in position to sink a lot of birdies this week as he ranks 6th overall in birdie average and 4th in eagle average. This gives Holmes tremendous value on a course that kicks out a lot of scoring opportunities. Holmes is more of a GPP play as he tends to surprise owners with a painful missed cut here or there.

Bill Haas ($10.500) – Haas will be a very highly owned player this week. Although he is coming off of a missed cut at The US Open, his history here is very good having made the cut in all four starts with two Top 10 finishes and having never finished lower than 33rd. He has missed just three cuts this year and has a win this season. He ranks 45th in Ball Striking and 31st in Strokes Gained Tee to Green. He ranks 25th in scrambling and 30th in Par 4 scoring so he checks all the boxes that I am looking at this week. He works well in Cash and GPP games this week, but do realize that he will probably be heavily owned in most GPPs so keep that in mind when constructing your lineups.

VALUE PICKS

Kevin Na ($9100) – Anytime a player makes a great run over seven or eight events, the bandwagon swells larger and larger over time. Inevitably, the streak must come to an end as it did for Kevin Na last weekend when he missed the cut. This normally would shake up his ownership levels a bit, but his price makes him attractive this week. He has made the cut here in all three starts with one Top 10 finish. Na is not much of a Ball Striker, but ranks 17th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, 36th in scrambling and 30th in Par 4 scoring. Considering his overall run in recent months, one missed cut should not scare too many people away as he also has six Top 10 finishes on the year. Na is a solid cash and GPP play this week.

Pat Perez ($8700) – His price is a bit on the high side, but as this course tends to produce some really low scores, it is not going to take nearly as much to put up points for DraftKings this week. Perez has made four cuts in four starts at The Old White TPC with two Top 10 finishes. He has missed only three cuts in eighteen starts this season so Perez has been much more consistent than in previous seasons. He ranks 72nd in Ball Striking and 83rd in Strokes Gained Tee to Green. However, he does gain a few strokes back putting and is 13th in Par 4 scoring. Perez also ranks 13th in birdie average so the potential is certainly there for him to do big things this weekend.

Brendon Todd ($8500) – Well, it is not a major tournament this week so I like Brendon Todd. Outside of the majors, Todd has missed just two cuts in sixteen tournaments this year and has three Top 10 finishes. Todd ranks 94th in Ball Striking this year, but much of that is due to a lack of distance which is not as important this week. However, Todd ranks 43rd in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, 13th in Strokes Gained Putting and 13th in Strokes Gained Total. He ranks 18th in scrambling and 67th in Par 4 scoring. He has made the cut in both starts here and finished in 4th place last year. He makes for great play in both cash and GPP formats.

Daniel Berger ($8200) – It’s a week for Berger to be on. He has alternated good and terrible performances for the last ten tournaments or so making him one of the most frustrating DFS players in recent memory. When he is on his game, he is a threat to win the tournament. When he is off, he is volatile like Brooks Koepka piling up disastrous holes in bunches. We will take another risk on him this week for some of our tournament teams as he has the potential to score a lot of points when he is on his game as he does have five Top 10 finishes on the season. His stats look great for the course. He ranks 15th in Ball Striking, 28th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, 22nd in Scrambling and 22nd in Par 4 scoring. If he can keep his head about him, this could be a course where he breaks through with a big performance.

Will Wilcox ($8100) – Wilcox has broken hearts on a couple of occasions where he was highly owned this season. It should be enough to shake a few owners loose of him this week. After a 4th place finish here last year, there is every reason to believe that he will be able to build on his debut performance. He ranks 8th in Ball Striking and 51st in Strokes Gained Tee to Green. He putts pretty well (32nd) and this has lifted him to 38th in Strokes Gained Total. He ranks 12th in scrambling and 13th in Par 4 scoring so the numbers are there for him to have success this week. Take advantage of his slightly off week last week to buy when others are scared. I like Wilcox in both cash and GPP formats this week.

Brendon de Jonge ($7800) – De Jonge has hurt us more than once this year. Much like the stock market, the best time to buy is rarely at the top. This should be a week for de Jonge to bounce back. He has made the cut in five straight starts here with two Top 10 finishes. He ranks 33rd in Ball Striking and 54th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green. He also ranks 30th in Par 4 scoring. He has made 16 of 22 cuts this year with three Top 10s. He has alternated made and missed cuts over his last six events and is looking to build a little momentum this summer.

Steven Bowditch ($7300) – Suddenly in great form starting with his victory at The Byron Nelson, Bowditch seems to have found a new gear for his game. I’m not as concerned with his stats throughout the season so much as what he has done over the last four events where he has a win, a T15 and a T22. He is long off the tee, but not know for his accuracy or hitting greens. However, Bowditch ranks 2nd in scrambling which helps him to mitigate some of his wildness and also ranks 46th on Par 4s. His tee to green game (82nd) is steadily improving and he is a slightly better than average putter (63rd). He has had success here in the past with a 2nd place finish in 2013 and an 18th place finish in 2011. Bowditch is a boom or bust play so I am not banking on him for cash games, but he has plenty of potential in GPPs with his upside.

SLEEPERS

John Peterson ($6400) – After faltering due to a wrist injury this spring, Peterson is back to full strength now and playing his brand of cut making golf again. His putter betrays him often, but this could be the type of course where even a weak putter like Peterson has a shot at a Top 10 finish. Peterson has missed just two cuts in nineteen starts this year, but has yet to crack the Top 10 in an event this season. Peterson ranks 29th in Ball Striking and 50th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green. He’s 20th in scrambling and 13th in Par 4 scoring. If he can pull it together on the greens for a couple of rounds this could be the week he cracks the Top 10.

Scott Brown ($6200) – Brown’s track record gives me a bit of pause when evaluating him this week. Brown started the season really poorly so his stats are not reflective of the improvements he has made in his game over the last few months. He has made the cut in 10 of his last 11 starts with a couple of Top 20 finishes and a smattering of finishes in the mid 30s. At this price, he is worth the gamble. None of his stats are all that spectacular for the year, but his form looks great right now and if he makes the cut, he will deliver tremendous value for our teams. He’s certainly not worth the risk for cash games, but fits well for GPP purposes.

Chris Collins ($5900) – Chad Collins is quietly putting together a very decent season. He has become a bargain cut maker, missing only four cuts in eighteen starts this season. Although he has no Top 10 finishes, at his price, each time he makes the cut he delivers supreme value and in two starts, he has made the cut each time at the Greenbrier. He is not known for his ball striking, but his tee to green game is not terrible (80th), he is ranked 1st in scrambling and 46th in Par 4 scoring. His game fits the course well and his form right now is better than his price. He will not win the tournament for you, but his low price opens up a lot of options at the top of the price range.

DEEP SLEEPER

Maverick McNealy ($5600) – Is he a cowboy? Is he a card player? Maybe a pilot? No, his life is even better than that. 19-year-old Maverick just finished his sophomore year at Stanford where he was once a teammate with Patrick Rodgers. Maverick is the son of Scott McNealy, co-founder of Sun Microsystems and near billionaire. Maverick is actually considering NOT turning pro after graduating school to focus on a career in business following in the footsteps of his father. McNealy is a very cerebral player and actually completes a lengthy hole by hole writeup of every competitive round that he plays. In this past season, McNealy won six tournaments, including a 10-stroke individual victory at the Pac 12 Championship and a win at the NCAA Chapel Hill Regional. He won the Jack Nicklaus award as the top Division I men’s golfer and consensus player of the year. He qualified for the US Open in 2014, but a late meltdown in Round 2 took him below the cut line. This is a nice course for McNealy and offers plenty of scoring opportunities. He is certainly not a threat to win the tournament, but we have already seen several young players jump right into events and make cuts. Jon Rahm did it last week. Cheng-Tsung Pan made the cut at the US Open and other amateurs have enjoyed similar success. If he can sneak through the cut at his price, he could make enough noise over the weekend to help a GPP team. Nobody will own McNealy this week so any contribution he makes will benefit only a small percentage of players.

Good luck this week!

-Myzteriouzly