The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – Shriners Open
We are back to the states this week and it could not come at a better time after a tough finish for me last week in China where one of my core players withdrew from the event before teeing off. There is nothing worse than waking up after the first round of an event overseas and to then go through the PGA Tour app in search of your most key players and to not find one listed. I scrolled down to the bottom after trying to find Eddie Pepperell and saw that Chris Wood had withdrawn, but had some hope in not seeing Pepperell. Unfortunately, as soon as I opened the DraftKings app and pulled up my cash game team, the zero next to Pepperell’s name told the whole story immediately. He suffered some type of back injury and actually has pictures posted to Twitter of him getting some therapy these past few days so it certainly is not a case of just having a little sniffle or a cold. Obviously, a withdrawal at an event in China is about as unexpected as it gets. You never anticipate a player that flies all the way across the world to withdraw. Typically, golfers are not making that sort of trip unless they are ready to go so it really does sound like it was a late, freakish injury that put him on the shelf last week and for a few weeks going forward.
In terms of the event itself, it was another Xander week that I missed out on. I really wish that I had some type of magical powers that could help me to determine the weeks that he was going to play well. He’s usually either contending or a mile away from the top of the board. He had not done anything special the previous two weeks in Asia so it came as a surprise that he was on fire, but then again, it usually surprises me as he is one of those players who does not need to trend in the right direction before he simply pops and finds himself in contention. In his last 16 events of the recent season, Xander missed 4 cuts, finished 68th or worse three times, but then managed six Top-10 finishes, including two in the lat two playoff events to close the season. He is clearly not someone that you are using at this stage for cash games, but his high upside potential makes him a useful GPP play, especially as others go through the same dilemma in terms of whether to play him or fade him completely. I think his game will start to even out this season and we will start to see more consistent performances each week during 2019.
It was heartbreaking to see Tony Finau come up just short once again. Despite his brilliant play over the last few years on tour, he still has just one win to his name and it was in Puerto Rico in March of 2016 so he is still looking for that defining career win against a strong field. I nearly faded him last week given his high price and the caliber of the field, however, he has been so good over the last few months and his DK scoring ability is so high that he just is not someone that I want to fade all that often. This week, I am going to make a rare exception.
With the field that we have in place this week, it is going to be very difficult to fit all of the players up top into our player pool so we need to start finding reasons as to why some need to be on the outside. In the case of Finau, I think that we can make the move to fade him this week for a few key reasons. First, travelling back from China after last week is certainly something that has to wear on a player. I am not sure about Finau’s accommodations when he flies, but it’s not a quick trip, especially after going to a playoff in the final round. I also think that the way that Tony lost on Sunday has to be something that will wear on him this week. No, he did not lose a major, but a he was in the lead down the stretch for a WGC title which would have been a huge win for him so it was a disappointing missed opportunity. Finally, Tony is always a very popular DK play so even with the travel, I still expect his ownership numbers to reach 20% this week so we get an additional boost in fading him if it allows us take advantage of ownership trends that may allow other players in his vicinity to go overlooked. With that said, normally this would be a spot where I would normally love Finau as he grew up out west in Utah so the course and the general playing conditions are exactly what he is used to and has excelled at during his career. If you want to play him this week, I can’t blame you, but as for me, I am going to fade Finau and hold my breath the way I always do when he is not in my player pool.
The rest of the picks last week were pretty reasonable. As always, Justin Rose came through with a solid showing and a 3rd place finish. Tony was right up there with a second place finish. I had plenty of shares of Patrick Cantlay, Emiliano Grillo, Keegan Bradley, Thorbjorn Olesen and Hao-Tong Li among others. Once again, some of the studs at the top really hurt me. Rory McIlroy played absolutely miserable last week. He started a little flat and was even after the first round and then came undone in the second round and never bothered to make much of an effort over the weekend. I wrote about it in the preview, but that is one of the worst parts of a no cut event. Players have a free payday coming so when they fall out of contention, there is not always a lot to motivate them to rally and in Rory’s case, this is exactly what took place. He made an early triple bogey in the second round and mailed it in the rest of the way. For a guy who had played the course five times previously and never finished lower than 11th, it was a frustrating result. The way that course is laid out, it should be the type of event where he can always contend. When the guys you take a little leap of faith on come through and then at top player struggles badly, there really is not a lot that you can do. The analysis would be no different if the event took place again tomorrow. You just have to put it behind you and move on.
Fortunately, when it comes to golf, there are very few down weeks throughout the calendar year so it is easy to get past a tough week and go right into the next event. I am really excited for the Shriners Open this week. The field is better than what we usually get here which immediately makes it more entertaining and also helps to keep the pricing from getting too extreme. I never enjoy events where marginal players are way overpriced and players that you would normally feel comfortable with as value players are now $9k and pushed into anchoring rosters rather than being ancillary piece. We have just enough talent headed to Vegas this week so that those up and coming younger players are easier to use as a little bit of pricing compression helps to keep them affordable and easier to sprinkle across multiple lineups.
In checking the weather this week, it looks like it will be perfect for the players. Last year, unusually high winds made the weekend more challenging than what we are used to seeing from year to year. The winning score was a paltry -9 for Patrick Cantlay who won his first tour event in a playoff. In the previous 10 years, the worst score for the winning player had been -19, so that should give you an idea of just how difficult things were compared to the norm. The course sets up as a birdie fest each year. It’s a Par 71 course that is around 7,200 yards but plays at an altitude of 2,700 feet above sea level so we should see some bigger numbers when it comes to driving distance as the altitude will kick in as a factor. Perhaps we’ll see Cameron Champ go for the green on some of the 400 yard Par 4 holes this week. I’m only half kidding.
There are not too many challenges to deal with for players this week. As Adam Daly explained in his First Tee column, the fairways narrow down a bit past 300 yards, but most big hitters can simply club down and use their irons to keep themselves in the fairway. The bentgrass greens are also not much of a problem as they are on the large side which means that players average above 70% when it comes to hitting greens in regulation. We are looking for players who precise with their irons play and hopefully putting the ball reasonably well. It won’t be enough just to be in position this week, players are going to have to make birdies to keep up with the rest of the field. When you are looking to find the type of player that should excel here, be sure to think about some of the other courses that are played in the region during the season. The two events that come to mind most for me would be TPC Scottsdale for the WM Open and the courses that make up the CareerBuilder Challenge. Those are both held in desert regions so the conditions are very similar. I also like to focus on the local players for this tournament. There are a few players here this week that either played their college golf in Vegas or who currently live in the area. I would even stretch this to include players from Arizona and other areas in the southwest. If you notice, these players almost all have excellent course history over the years. I know some folks do not trust course history, but ignore it at your own peril this week as this is one of those courses each year where it stands out much more than normal.
Key Stats
Strokes Gained Putting: 30%
Birdie or Better Percentage: 25%
Strokes Gained Putting: 20%
Proximity: 10%
Scrambling: 10%
Par 5 Scoring: 5%
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