The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – RSM Classic
The winter weather has arrived early up here this year and I am quite jealous of anyone getting to spend time on a golf course in November as I heat my car up every night before I drive home. I think most of the players on the PGA Tour have decided to start their own holiday season a little early as well with the field that we have hear in Georgia this week. While that may bring a few DFS owners down in looking over the salaries for the week, I actually enjoy these events. The field is larger than normal with over 150 players in the field which means that the carnage will be wide spread when the cut line settles on Friday afternoon. With the Top-70 and ties making the cut, we will only have 50% of the field or potentially even a little less getting through to the weekend. While getting 6/6 through the cut is usually a difficult task in a normal field, my thought this week will be that it is even trickier than normal.
You should prepare yourself each week by looking at each tournament in a similar manner. What is the size of the field? How is it composed? What are the cut rules that are in play? How easy or difficult is the course(s)? I try to give a good assessment of this each week as it should force you to consider the types of contests that you are going to enter and how much of your bankroll you put in play. Generally, with events like the RSM where the field is large and weak and scoring is on the easy side, it is best to stay away from cash games, or if you play only cash games, to take your exposure down a bit and just play enough to keep your head in the game and to keep up with how other owners are constructing their rosters and to spot any helpful trends along the way.
I have talked about this before, but I will mention it again today, you want to have your play mapped out at the start of every calendar year. Go back after this week and do a deep dive over every event and every lineup that you entered for the year. Try to take a somewhat objective view of your play now that some time has passed. What do you notice about the amount of volume you played ? Did you start the year with a plan in mind and then quickly veer off after a few weeks? Did you chase losses by increasing your play even in weeks where it seemed like you did not have much of an advantage? Or on the other side, did you have a big win and then jump into the larger contests? There are so many ways that things can go off the tracks during the year unless you really take the time to get ahead of the game.
In December, I want each of you to take up a little assignment that I have for you. I want you to look at 2019 and put together an event by event plan for how you plan to attack the year. Look at each event, evaluate the course and the typical field and decide how much or how little of your bankroll that you want to put in play. Use percentages for how much you will play each week and also for the breakdown between cash and GPP contests. If you use percentages, then you will be able to adjust your exposure up or down depending on how you do to start off the season. If your bankroll is $1,000, start by using a rule of thumb to play 10% per week. That will start you off with $100 to put in play during the first event of the year. If you double your money, then you will have $110 to put in play the following week. If you get wiped out that week, you’ll have $90 to use the next week.
Of course, 10% is just a rule of thumb. I would use that for your standard event during the year. For events that are on the weaker side or ones where you do not have much interest, drop that number down to 5% or even take a few weeks off during the year. One of the things that I notice with long time subscribers is that it is easy to get burned out on PGA DFS during the year. There really are only a couple of weeks all year where there are no contests so if you are playing every single week, it can become a real grind. Don’t beat yourself up like that. What I have noticed is that it gets tougher and tougher to do the research when you are not in a great mood and when that happens, your play also deteriorates. You take bigger risks, you start to reach for players that you would normally stay away from. Find ways to keep yourself sharp by strategically picking out events throughout the year to take off. If you can’t get yourself to completely stay away, then maybe just put in one cash lineup or one GPP team in small contest just to amuse yourself for the week.
On the other end, I want you to circle your favorite events each season. Maybe they are the majors, maybe they are events played near where you live or maybe you won a huge GPP there a couple of years ago and it always has some sentimental value. Whatever the case may be, allow yourself a few weeks during the year to take a bigger swing. With the way that the pricing is structured for various events, it is not too difficult to pick up on patterns which means that it is generally easy to anticipate the pricing style going into events. This is why we always emphasize the majors for cash games as there is usually deep value plays that make it easier to put together strong teams, especially when a lot of novice players are jumping in just for the hell of it since Tiger is playing. Let yourself go up to 20-25% exposure for a few events during the year that you feel confident about. We can talk further about the types of events you plan to enter over the next month, but I would love to see you actively put together your own calendar of events for next year. If you want to share them with us, please feel free to do so and I will offer any advice that is applicable.
As for this week, I will play primarily GPP contest this week given what I’ve already discussed above. There is significant pricing pressure pushing up from the bottom this week forcing players into the middle and upper ranges that we would normally never see that high. Look at a player like Whee Kim at $8400. When has Whee Kim ever approach this price in the past, if ever? Yes, he has been okay this fall and every once in a while he puts up a nice finish, but it is far from common and he is not the only one who looks out of place this week. This makes cash games tricky as you will see players missing the cut in all ranges this week and not just among the cheapest players. I envision a 5/6 lineup to be as good as a 6/6 most weeks and there will probably be some 4/6 teams that get into the green for cash games if you hit the right combination of players.
I also want to talk a little bit about ownership this week as well. When we have weaker field events, typically there is at least 2-3 names up top that are still elite class golfers. Some weeks, however, it does not necessarily come together though and we get an event where you have good players up top, but nobody near the top of the world rankings. When we have this type of event, I like to spread my ownership a little thinner. It is tough to be as convicted on specific players to the tune of owning 60-70% of anyone in terms of shares. Also, if you look at the winners here from over the years, you will see a wide variety of names that have won. Some events, it feels like an almost certainty that a top priced player will win. This does not have that feel at all. Use 30-40% as the highest amount of exposure that you will have for any player and then stretch your player pool to fit in a few extra names in to your player pool this week. This is a great event for a young player to rise up and take down their first tournament win the way Austin Cook did a year ago. If you have been paying close attention, there are a few names in particular that should stand out.
Key Stats
Strokes Gained Putting: 30%
Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 25%
Birdie or Better Percentage: 20%
Scrambling: 10%
Strokes Gained Off the Tee: 7.5%
Driving Accuracy: 7.5%
Follow Us
