The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – RSM Classic

A week ago, my world changed. While most folks began a week long celebration or protest over the results of 2016 Presidential Election, things were emotional for the team here at FGI for far different reasons. Sitting down for our annual season long NFL draft back in August, I knew that this would be a challenging season for our league. I know that most of you came to PGA DFS through fantasy football and it was no different for Jeff and I as kids. When we were 11 years-old, goofing off in the back of Mr Auld’s 6th grade class, Jeff came to me with an idea that he had heard about from a another friend. He called it fantasy football and explained that each of us would pick a team of players for each position and get points for whenever they scored touchdowns, field goals, extra points or safeties. I thought it sounded interesting so we gave it a try playing heads up for the year. If my memory serves me correctly, I believe we played to a tie that season, but from our little experiment, our fascination with fantasy sports began.

Over the years, the league evolved from 2 players, to 4 and then gradually up to a respectable 10-12 teams each year. I had to leave the league when it came time for me to go away to school for college at Air Force, but the league endured. When I returned close enough to home to be a part of the league again, I introduced my dad to the game as Jeff had brought his dad, Terry into the league as well.

Our families have always been very close, ever since Jeff and I became friends back in our kindergarten class. Terry was our little league coach, football coach and Jeff’s biggest supporter in the stands through our wrestling matches in high school. Jeff and I have both been blessed with wonderful parents who have gone out of their way to live their lives as an example for their kids and their communities and I have always considered his family to be a second family for myself.

Unfortunately, a little over four years ago, Terry was diagnosed with multiple myeloma, an incurable type of cancer in his blood, that can only be treated to help extend the patient’s life for so many years. He fought the good fight as so many do and went through chemotherapy and a bone marrow transplant to help him to lead as normal of a life as possible. He did not want to slow down and wanted to continue to work and lead as normal of a life as possible. He relished every day and the time with his family. Through it all, he remained a proud member of our Couch Coaches Fantasy League, plugging away year after year with his hard luck squad, The Chumps.

Even as the years went by and the disease slowly took its course, Terry always kept a positive attitude and was grateful for every holiday, birthday party, family vacation and yes, every fantasy football draft that came at the end of summer each year. He was notorious for the amount of research he put in each summer and the copious amounts of notes that he took that he would rummage through for minutes at a time as each player of our auction draft was thrown out to be bid upon. He loved being around the group and joking with all of the younger folks in our group that he grew up coaching and cheering on in high school. And even as the cancer slowed him down, we did our best to help him out and guide him along through each draft.

When he got really sick this summer, I knew that this would be his last draft with our league. He had been in and out of the hospital over the summer and the treatments just were not working to slow the cancer anymore and there just were not a lot of options for him. Even at his lowest points, he spent time in his hospital bed doing his research and looking forward to the draft for the upcoming season. When the day of the draft finally arrived, he was in good spirits and my dad sat next to him and helped him with some of the newer players that were in the league or who had moved teams in the off season. As always, we had a lot of fun. Although we have had some owners come and go over the years, our draft is still one of my favorite nights each summer.

Unfortunately, Terry’s health declined during the season and he lost his battle to cancer last week at the age of 69…far too soon for someone who appreciated his life and family so much. Most members, past and present from the league attended Terry’s funeral last week and listened as Jeff delivered an incredibly touching tribute to his dad in the eulogy that he wrote. We all gathered together before and after the mass to share our favorite stories and memories of our time spent together. Of course, fantasy football came up, as you might expect. While the game itself might be a little silly, if you are in a league with good friends, the bonds that it builds and helps to hold together are incredibly special in our lives.

As luck would have it, Terry’s team went into the weekend in a tie for first place with two other teams and as I adjusted my lineup for the week, I noticed that my opponent was in fact, The Chumps. Now, as passionate as Terry was for the game, he had not had much luck over the years and his name has not graced our trophy since he won his last title back in 1999. Although my team is out of contention this season, having won the league last year, I still wanted to make sure I put up a good fight for the week. However, destiny stepped in and Terry’s makeshift squad turned it on to win easily and keep control of first place with four weeks to go in the regular season.

Thank you for allowing me to share this with you today. A lot of folks see fantasy sports as a silly hobby and to some extent they are right. But through all my years, it has been a tool that has helped me to say connected with friends and to meet so many new and amazing people. I wanted to take some time today to reflect on my experiences going back to age 11 all the way up to now as Jeff and I finish up our second full year with FGI. It has been an amazing run thus far and I want to thank all of you for being a part of the journey with us. There are days when this exhausts me and wears me down, but the experiences that I have had have enriched my life beyond measure and I am truly grateful to all of you for your support and loyalty in helping us to achieve our dream.

And now, back to golf for the week!

The PGA Tour returns back to the US this week for the RSM Classic at Sea Island. The event changed up the format last season so that the event now takes place at two different courses, Seaside and Plantation. The Seaside course is a 7,000 yard, Par 70 course and the Plantation course (only played for one round on Friday) is 7,000 yard, Par 72 course. The field is again on the weak side this weekend, which means that once again, we should expect the cut line on Friday afternoon to take out a wide range of players from all salary tiers. Cash games have not been terribly kind to us of late so continue to follow the advice of limited your bankroll and preserving it for the upcoming season. We have plenty of solid plays to work with this week, but many of the ideas are going to be somewhat well known among other owners with the contests being fairly limited in size again which tends to keep away the novice players looking to jump into the action.

This tournament does have a lot of local flavor to it as may players in the event played golf at Georgia, grew up playing in the area or now make their residence at Seaside Resort. If you check out our player data page, you should be able to find plenty of names that fall into those categories to help you out in selecting players for the week. As you build your cash game rosters, that type of familiarity is going to be really helpful with building each team. However, with GPP events this week, it is probably wise to fade some of the more popular names that will stand out. Particularly, in GPP events, there are some local names that have had a spotty record at the event over the last year or two. These types of players probably represent the best opportunity for value in GPPs this week as most owners are going to focus on tournament history, recent form and local connections to the event. Remember, tournament history is useful this week, but not quite as useful as other events considering the change to making it a two course event last season. However, given the fact that the Plantation Course is only used in one round for the entire event, I wouldn’t discount the history as much as some of the other industry folks are considering this week.

As described by the RSM Classic website, the Seaside course is a ‘links course graced by majestic ocean vistas in the style of St Andrews’. It goes on to detail the play required for success as needing to utilize ‘careful shot selection, recovery and putting’. Both the Seaside course and Plantation course are played on Bermuda grass which can be tricky for those players that are more used to playing on bentgrass throughout much of the PGA season. Finally, the official website mentions that ‘Tidal creeks, dunes, salt marshes and the St. Simons Sound frame the course, which plays fast, firm, and fun in the tradition of legendary Scottish links.’ The Plantation Course is built through a marsh and forest, giving it a bit of contrast from the Seaside course. The fairways are categorized as expansive and should be easier to hit than most other courses, thus providing more scoring opportunities for the players. However, there are creeks and lakes around the course so those players that tend to get too aggressive will have to be careful to avoid putting up a big number if they are sloppy.

The key stats for the week as shared with us by our friends at Fantasy Golf Metrics are as follows:

Birdie or Better Percentage: 25%
Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 20%
Strokes Gained Putting: 20%
Par 4 Scoring: 15%
Proximity: 15%
Driving Accuracy: 5%

Finally, before we get to the recommendations for the week, I wanted to take a moment to remind you that we still have plenty of golf coverage ahead over the next month. There is no down time with golf and even when there is not a full slate of events, Jeff and I are always working in order to make sure that you are sharpening your mind for what is ahead. If you were a subscriber last December, you will remember that Jeff rolled out his Crystal Ball piece for 2016 which was absolutely nails this year in terms of the success it predicted. Also, I wrote up a four part series on GPP lineup construction that I will be revisiting again this year, but with much more in depth data that we collected all year to analyze and break down to get you ready for the year ahead. These columns are only going to be available for a limited time in the month of December only! Once 2017 arrives and the ball drops, it will all be removed from viewing on the site.

We also have so many new and exciting things that we will be bringing you up to date on as we progress through the holiday season. We are working on putting the finishing touches on some new tools to help with roster construction that we should be able to make available in January (fingers crossed). We have also begun to work with a big, new partner in the DFS industry over the last few weeks and will be finalizing the details of that relationship before January which will mean that you are going to have the opportunity to gain access to some of the best minds in the industry, and probably get a little bit of a deal to get you in the door! It is an exciting time to be involved in fantasy sports and I am thrilled to be able to share my insights with you here each week. After last week, we are now back up and running again at full strength so if you have any thoughts or questions, please feel free to reach out to us at any time as we pride ourselves on giving personal attention to every email or tweet that we receive.

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Almost every player on this list has a connection to the southeast region this week. Harris English, Hudson Swafford and Kevin Kisner are all Georgia Bulldog alumni. CHIII was born in Augusta, GA. Roberto Castro went to Georgia Tech and lives in Atlanta. Most of the others have connections to the Carolinas, Florida or other parts of the southeast US. Not surprisingly, most of these players have fared well at this event over the years given their experience with the style of course and Bermuda grass. This week, a balanced approach made a lot of sense for cash games. There are plenty of solid players in the $8-10k range this week, but if you go up to the elite level players at this event, you will be forced to take shots with more fliers at the bottom and I would rather just lock in golfers with a little more experience who will also probably have contingents of fans visiting them this week. Nobody wants to have a group of family and friends attend an event all weekend and then have to spend the actual weekend not competing in the tournament so I think that will help this group of players to turn up the level of intensity a notch in order to get the job done. The goal with our cash games isn’t so much to try to nail winners as it is to just get bodies through the cut and into the weekend. Getting five of six golfers through the cut in recent weeks has cleared an easy path to winning in cash games so keep that in mind with the players you are choosing. Also realize that getting four of six through the cut can work as well if you do happen to select two or three Top-10 finishers.

Ryan Blaum – $7,900
Wesley Bryan – $7,100
Harris English – $8,800
Bill Haas – $9,800
Billy Horschel – $8,600
Hudson Swafford – $7,700

Roberto Castro – $8,200
Billy Horschel – $8,600
Charles Howell III – $9,200
Kevin Kisner – $9,300
Trey Mullinax – $6,900
Hudson Swafford – $7,700

Chad Campbell – $6,300
Roberto Castro – $8,200
Lucas Glover – $8,900
Charles Howell III – $9,200
Kevin Kisner – $9,300
Jamie Lovemark – $8,000

CORE

Lucas Glover – $8,900 – 50%
Billy Horschel – $8,600 – 50%
Chris Kirk – $11,300 – 40%
Bill Haas – $9,800 – 40%
Trey Mullinax – $6,900 – 40%

Our core group of players this week came directly from the model for the most part. The only exception here is for Billy Horschel. I really like Horschel this week as we are able to get a strong ball striker with a good all around game at a great price in a weak field. He missed the cut last week by just a single stroke which I anticipate will keep him in the penalty box and on the bench for many owners suffering from recency bias. Do not fall into that trap with Horschel as he should bounce back this week. At his price, he can play the role of cut maker for us and earn his salary or he could give us additional upside just as easily. He is a great fit here for both GPP and cash games.

Lucas Glover really pops on the model this week and probably rightly so. This tends to be the time of year when Glover really shines against weaker fields and on courses where he is more familiar with the layout. Glover went to Clemson and still lives in South Carolina so he is close to home and makes it to this event almost every years. He is one of the best players in the game from tee to green in all respects. If he had even an ounce of talent putting the golf ball, he would be an elite player contending in every tournament he entered. However, we know his putter is his downfall. The only question at this point of the season is; can he be merely average with the flat stick and elevate himself into contention? Much like last fall season, Glover is handling things very well so far and enters the week with two straight Top-5 finishes. While I am always worried about Glover waking up on Thursday and realizing that he is, in fact, still Lucas ‘3 putt’ Glover, I think he will save those antics until the tournaments are meaningful again in 2017.

Chris Kirk is a Sea Island resident, former Georgia Bulldog grad, and the winner of this even in 2013. As a bonus, he has finished in the Top-10 in four of his last five starts. This all sounds like a player who will garner a lot of attention this week, right? I think he may actually end up getting overlooked to some degree as Matt Kuchar is right there below him and is always very popular. I think mentally, people will have a tough time ponying up $11,300 for Chris Kirk after injuries and inconsistencies in the last two season slowed his progress. I am comfortable paying up in this situation to be a little contrarian for a guy with a ton of upside that is back on his game again.

If the field is soft and Bill Haas is in it, it is a good week to play Bill Haas. Haas did not blow anyone away last season with his overall performance, which slipped badly due to his terrible putting. He is looking to get back on track this season and is off to a good start so far with two Top-20 finishes. Haas went to school at Wake Forest and now lives in Greenville, SC so he should be comfortable again this week in an event where he has made the cut in all three starts and finished runner-up in 2010. His ball striking will get him through the cut and hopefully push him into contention over the weekend.

We need at least one cheap option in our core group to keep our salary restrictions within reach and Trey Mullinax covers that for us. Mullinax played his college golf in Alabama so the terrain is not unfamiliar to him, just much prettier to look at. Mullinax is a rookie on tour this season having earned his way up from the Web.com Tour and has done well so far this fall in making the cut in three of his first four starts and missing last week by just a single stroke. As a bonus, Mullinax played here a year ago and posted a 25th place finish so that familiarity should help him out. Mullinax has dealt with accuracy issues this past year, but the fairways are forgiving this week which should allow this big hitter many chances to score birdies or even an eagle or two.

SECONDARY

Charles Howeell III – $9,200 – 30% – 5/6 making the cut with three Top-10 finishes at this event, two straight Top-15 finishes the last two weeks, excellent tee to green player
Hudson Swafford – $7,700 – 30% – 16 straight events making the cut, Georgia alumni, very affordable price, will be highly owned, excellent long iron player
Jamie Lovemark – $8,000 – 30% – finished 9th place in his first start here last season, game seems to be turning around since a rough stretch last summer
Ryan Blaum – $7,900 – 30% – 4/4 making the cut in his first season on tour, finished in 25th place here a year ago
Chad Campbell – $6,300 – 30% – 5/6 making the cut here with two Top-10 finishes, 4/4 making the cut this season, excellent price for a guy that should make the cut
Luke List – $9,400 – 25% – 4/4 making the cut this season with three Top-15 finishes, big hitter with tee to green talent that seems to finally be playing up to his potential
John Huh – $8,300 – 25% – has made the cut in his last eight starts and 2/2 at this event, not the most consistent player, but rates out better than normal this week
Xander Schauffele – $6,200 – 25% – another salary saver for us, 4/4 on the tour this fall since his ascension from the Web.com Tour
Stewart Cink – $6,900 – 20% – veteran who went to Georgia Tech and lives in Georgia, two straight Top-15 finishes this season and 3/5 in this event, hits greens as consistently as anyone on tour
Wesley Bryan – $7,100 – 20% – South Carolina alum who dominated on the Web.com Tour last summer and has been making cuts on the PGA Tour, very elite putter which will hlp him make a lot of cuts

TERTIARY

Cody Gribble – $8,400 – 15% – three Top 15 finishes and a win this fall, a little expensive for a young player, putting has been incredible this fall
Harris English – $8,800 – 15% – Georgia product that is coming off of a missed cut so his price is more affordable, 3/4 here with three Top-27 finishes, good cut maker with occasional upside
Matt Kuchar – $11,200 – 15% – 5/5 here with five Top-25 finishes, will be heavily owned so we’re capping our ownership, resident of Sea Island
Camilo Villegas – $7,000 – 10% – has played well in two starts this season and 3/4 at this event, should be low owned, very boom or bust
Brandon Hagy – $6,100 – 10% – salary saving move, 2/2 on the season, big hitter who has been outstanding tee to green in his first two starts
Kyle Stanley – $6,800 – 10% – shows up well in the model and is 3/3 at this event, 2/3 this season with two Top-25 finishes, 8th tee to green, accurate, can score on Par 4’s
Seamus Power – $6,600 – 10% – made the cut in his last three starts, looked good in the Olympics this summer, very familiar with Sea Island
Roberto Castro – $8,200 – 10% – cut maker that found his game last season, 3/3 making the cut at this event, 21st last season tee to green, 6th in accuracy, 36th in proximity and 4th in Par 4 scoring
Kevin Chappell – $10,200 – 10% – 4/4 at this event w consecutive Top-10 finishes, 8 Top-10 finishes last season w 4 2nd place finishes, excellent tee to green
Ryan Brehm – $6,500 – 5% – 4/4 making the cut this season, big hitter, has been good tee to green
Kevin Kisner – $9,300 – 5% – defending champion, Georgia alumn, and local resident, can’t pass him up completely this week even if the results have not been there of late

Good Luck!!

-myzteriouzly

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