The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – RSM Classic

It is hard to believe how fast the fall season went by leading up to the final event before an extended layoff for most players. The Hero World Challenge takes place the first weekend in December, but is a relatively small event that features 18 of the top players in the world. Typically, Tiger Woods hosts and plays in this event, but with the back issues that he has been dealing with over the last several months, he will not be able to participate this year. I will do a short write up that week providing one team to play among the small field. Considering the huge amount of overlap in ownership and the lack of a cut at that event, I recommend keeping your bankroll exposure to a minimum and just play a small amount for that week.

The OHL Classic, as expected, was a challenging event for fantasy players. As per my advice, I played a smaller percentage of my bankroll than normal and focused on cash games and small entry fee GPP events. Although a number of my picks were felled by the cut on Friday afternoon, by playing a little cautiously, I was able to make a small profit for the week as two of my three cash game teams made it into the money and my $3 GPP teams were close to even for the week.

The highlight for us last week once again was Jason Bohn, who continues to play some really good golf this year. Unfortunately, for Bohn, this has not translated into a win this year, but he did manage to make it to the three man playoff before coming up short and finishing tied for second place. Other players who stood out last week were Johnson Wagner with an 8th place finish, Patrick Rodgers who finished tied for 10th and Spencer Levin who continued his string of quality tournaments also finishing tied for 10th.

We had a few disappointments last week as well. Brendan Steele continues to confound me on a weekly basis. One week he looks unstoppable and then the next week he looks lost out on the course. I certainly will not shy away from recommending him in the future, but until he becomes more consistent at making the cut, he will not find his way into my cash game lineups any time soon again. Harris English let us down as well. Typically, English is one of the best players on tour before the cut, but he never really got into gear last week and spent much of his two rounds hovering around even par to miss the cut. The lesson for the OHL was really the importance of paying up for two of the best players in the field to build your lineups around, particularly for cash games. The teams that I built around Bohn and Rodgers or Bohn and Kizzire fared really well as getting those two through the cut meant that I only needed to get two or three of the remaining players through to have a chance to win. In events with fields as weak as last week, cut making ability is at a premium and worth paying up for. Store that piece of information away for a few events next season.

Thankfully, the field this week is superior to what we dealt with for the OHL Classic. The RSM Classic has a few extra top ranked players to round out the top tier of the salary range and a lot of great value players in the middle tier to build around. Even a handful of sleepers have performed really well here in the past which should allow you to use two or three top level golfers on most of your teams. Relatively speaking, this is still not a particularly strong field, but the players here have a higher cut making percentage on the whole compared to last week which should make this week slightly more predictable than last. I would anticipate that in order to win your cash games this week, you will need to get five players through the cut.

Sea Island Gold Club in Sea Island, GA is the home of the RSM Classic (formerly The MacGladery). The event was established in 2010 so the history is limited, but many of the players have made multiple appearances so the course history data is fairly compelling this week…with one small twist. The tournament organizers through it would be fun to throw in a little curveball this year and to play one of the opening two rounds on the Plantation Course. While the other three rounds will be played at the Seaside Course, the Plantation Course, is a very short Par 72, playing at just over 7,000 yards. This will suit some of the upper level players in the field really well. The Seaside course, on the other hand, is a 7,005 yard, Par 70 course which will play a bit different than Plantation.

Given the layout of each course, it would be a mistake to dive too deeply into the stats for one course over the other. Consider each course fairly equally as again it is going to be imperative to choose players who make it through the cut. The Par 72, Plantation course will play a little better for the bigger hitters and the Par 70 Seaside course will play better for those who tend to keep the ball in the fairway. We will look at a mix of ball strikers (distance + accuracy + GIR), those players who are strong from tee to green, Par 4 scoring, Strokes Gained Putting and Birdie or Better Percentage. Given the split between the two courses, I am going to place added emphasis on form, but will not neglect course form as there are several players with strong track records throughout the history of this event. For the most part, I want to try to stick with the familiar names that have shined throughout the fall season with special emphasis on homegrown Georgia talent, as those players are very familiar with the terrain here and many have also been playing well this fall.

Good luck this week and be sure to send us tweets on how your teams are doing for the week. Stay engaged with us throughout these next 6 weeks as well. I am working on (about to begin work on) a multi part article analyzing the winning lineups of various GPPs throughout last season. There are a few very distinctive characteristics that go into building a winning squad and I am going to walk you through the data to help illuminate some key points to help you out in 2016. This information is only going to be available in the month of December as we want to make sure our offering does not suffer during the break. We also plan on putting together a 2016 preview and potentially doing a couple of webcasts on strategy. Also, just to stay engaged with all of you good folks on Twitter, I’ll probably be sharing some of my daily fantasy football expertise now that golf will be on the backburner for a little while. I don’t want you guys to miss me too much!

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BLUE CHIPS

Matt Kuchar ($10,800) – Kuch was a little out of my price range last week and I was happy to have faded him after a mediocre performance at the OHL Classic, where he had to fight his way through the cut on Friday and then misfired badly in the final round to disappoint his owners. However, it was his first action this fall so some of his struggles can be attributed to rust. He will not have that problem this week as this is his home course and he has excelled here over the years with three Top 25 finishes and one Top 10 finish. He is reasonably accurate off the tee, plays well tee to green and can putt well. He is a very solid play for cash games this week, but might not quite have the upside I am looking for in GPP events.

Kevin Kisner ($10,400) – After his recent breakout season, Kisner continued his strong play this fall with a 25th place finish at The Shriners, a 37th place finish at the CIMB and a 2nd place finish at the WGC HSBC. Although it has only been three events this fall, Kisner ranks 5th in driving distance and is 31st in accuracy (about the same for accuracy in the 2015 season). His tee to green game is vastly improved from his earlier years and he still rates as a slightly above average putter. He has made three of four cuts here with 26th, 20th and 4th place finishes to his credit. His game is balanced enough so that he should have success at both courses this week. I like him in both cash game and GPP events this week. The first of many Georgia Bulldogs I will be mentioning this week.

Russell Henley ($10,000) – Did I say I would be talking about a lot of Georgia players this week? Here’s another one for you this week. Henley can be a little up and down at times, but was a solid cut maker with upside type of player last season. He made 20/24 cuts last season with 11 Top 25 finishes to his credit, one of which was a 4th place finish at Sea Island. I like Henley’s game for the courses this week as he has a great balance of distance and accuracy off the tee and also hits greens. His iron play can feel like a kick in the groin some weeks and his tee to green numbers reflected that last season, but in two starts this season, he is already off to a much better start. He is also really talented on the greens and finished last season ranked 9th in Strokes Gained Putting. He is a little pricey this week, but as he showed last year, the upside is there when he is on his game.

Patrick Rodgers ($9,600) – While not a Georgia product, Rodgers is probably one of the best players this week for his price. His game has really come together this fall with four Top 20 finishes in four starts to start the season. Inconsistency was a problem for Rodgers last season, but so far, he has been able to play full events without the sort of one round breakdown that plagued him throughout the summer months. Rodgers is becoming one of the better ballstrikers on tour and his tee to green game is already at an upper level. The knock on Rodgers so far is that he does struggle with his putter, but so far has done enough to contend each week. This will mark his first trip to Sea Island, but I anticipate his streak of hot play will continue this week. He will be highly owned at his price. Therefore, I think he is a great cash game play, but you may want to limit your exposure to him in GPP events where his ownership levels could reach above 25%.

Patton Kizzire ($9,400) – Kizzire looked human last weekend at the OHL Classic after back to back Top 5 finishes to start the season. Kizzire gets a small price break from last week and is an interesting play for a couple of reasons. He has a very definite connection to Sea Island as he lives on neighboring St. Simon Island, giving him a definite advantage over others making their debut here. He finished 54th here last year so it was not an exceptional event for him, but the inclusion of the Plantation Course should help Kizzire out. He is not very accurate off the tee, but as long as he can stay out of trouble, the rest of his game should make up for this singular deficiency. His tee to green game has been exceptional through three events and he ranks in the Top 10 in Strokes Gained Putting. He is a good fit for both cash and GPP play this week.

VALUE PLAYS

Charles Howell III ($9,100) – For much of last year, CHIII was one of our cut maker plays on a regular basis. However, he hit a rough patch at the middle point of the year and went largely underowned until near the end of the year. Since that slump, CHIII has reeled off 11 straight made cuts, punctuated by four consecutive Top 17 finishes to start this season. The Georgia born native has made the cut at Sea Island in all five of his starts here which includes two Top 10 finishes. Typically, CHIII is good tee to green player that struggles with his putter, although surprisingly, those numbers have flipped around to start this season. He hits greens at an above average clip. His numbers are unremarkable, but his form and history here make him a great play in all formats this week.

Kevin Chappell ($9,000) – The talented ballstriker had an up and down season as injuries slowed him for much of the early part of the season before he came to life and went on a nice little run to get back into form by making the cut in 12 of his last 13 starts and finishing the season with 11 Top 25 finishes. Chappell has made the cut at Sea Island in all three of his starts here and finished as high as 8th last year. He has a good tee to green game, but his putter runs hot and cold. He is a poor finisher so do not get too excited if he is in the mix on Sunday as he will Furyk all over you if you get your hopes up too high.

Spencer Levin ($8,900) – Will the bubble pop this week? That’s the question I ask myself every week as I write up Levin and yet, he continues to improve each week. He has now made seven straight cuts and has made steady improvement throughout the fall going from finishing in 48th to 25th, to 17th, to 10th last week at the OHL Classic. He has made two of three cuts at Sea Island without any notable finishes, although it has been a couple of years since his last start here. He does not get a lot of distance off the tee, but he is accurate, hits greens and has been outstanding from tee to green in his play this fall. I’m not using him as much this week due to his elevated price, but he will find a couple of roster spots on GPP teams this week.

Brendon de Jonge ($8,700) – I hesitate to call Brendon de Jonge a ‘course horse’…maybe more like a ‘course rhino’. Whatever you want to call him, he’s been great at Sea Island making the cut in all five attempts and finishing in the Top 16 four times, highlighted by 2nd place finish last year when he was defeated in a playoff. He enters the RSM having made the cut in his last three events and tends to excel in keeping the ball on the fairway and in hitting greens. His tee to green game is slightly above average and his putting is merely average. He is good enough at this course to work in both cash and GPP events this week.

Jason Kokrak ($8,500) – I received an e-mail from a subscriber asking what we had seen in Kokrak that brought him back into the fold of recommendations for the week. Technically, it was Jeff’s pick, but I did play him on a few GPP teams. With a guy like Kokrak, you are just looking for a little turn in form combined with good course history to take a shot in a GPP. Kokrak was a darling last season until a mid spring slump took him out of everyone’s lineups. However, he has now made three straight cuts and appears to be back on track. This week he returns to a course where is 3/3 in making the cut and finished in 10th place back in 2013. Accuracy is an issue for Kokrak, but he does well in hitting greens and is a little above average from tee to green. I am sticking with him more for GPP play this week as I do not completely trust him yet for cash game play.

Brian Harman ($8,100) – Another former Georgia Bulldog, Harman plays well at Sea Island, where he has made the cut in all three starts, finishing as high as 10th in 2013. He started the season slow with a missed cut at the Frys.com, but has come back to make three straight cuts since then. Though he lacks distance off the tee, he keeps the ball in play, is average from tee to green and slightly above average in putting. His experience at this course, combined with his overall skill set make him a good fit in both cash and GPP play this week.

Camilo Villegas ($7,800) – There really is nothing flashy or exciting about Villegas. The numbers do not leap off the page in any meaningful manner, but ever since the Wyndham last season where he needed a strong finish to make it into the FedEx Cup Playoffs, his game has been really good. He has been in the Top 33 in five of his last six events and when I combine that with his string of three made cuts in three starts at Sea Island, I find a player that represents a nice value for his price.

Fabian Gomez ($7,500) – He started off the fall with two strong Top 20 finishes in the Frys.com and The Shriners, but has not played in a few weeks. In two starts at Sea Island, he has made the cut twice and finished in 8th place last year. His statistics are underwhelming, but he makes for a nice GPP play as his recent form converges well with a solid tournament history.

Smylie Kaufman ($7,500) – One of the breakout stars coming up from the Web.com Tour, Kaufman has already notched a win this fall to go along with having made the cut in all four starts this season. The 23 year old has lived up to the hype so far with his tee to green play and dependable putter. Accuracy could be an issue for Kaufman this week, but with his current form looking as good as it has, I am willing to recommend him here as the price represents a great value for the potential upside.

SLEEPERS

Zac Blair ($7,000) – The little guy enters this event on the heels of two straight solid performances capped by a 10th place finish last week at the OHL Classic, a short course that is somewhat similar to Sea Island. He is accurate off the tee and a very talented putter, just enough to earn a recommendation at his price. He finished in 32nd place here last year, so there is a little bit of upside for our little teetotaler friend this week.

Hudson Swafford ($6,900) – Bring the pain, Hudson. I think you’ve missed three cuts over the last six months and each one aligned with being written up in the Daily Spin. However, at $6,900, I just do not see a way that I can stay away from another Georgia Bulldog with a lot of upside. Swafford is excels at ball striking and putting. His tee to green game is lacking, but he makes up for it by knocking in birdies at a good clip. He missed the cut here in his first attempt, but finished in 12th last year. He enters this week having made the cut in five of his last six events, so it is hard to find many better values on the board for this price.

Sean O’Hair ($6,600) – O’Hair had some nice moments last season with three Top 10 finishes, but he also went through a stretch where he missed six of eight cuts. He is 1/2 this season, beginning the fall with a 26th place finish at the Frys.com and the missing the cut at The Shriners. However, he has been very good at Sea Island where he is 3/4 in making the cut with three Top 20 finishes. There is not much in the numbers to get excited about, but I am willing to take a shot in GPPs with him due to his price and potential upside.

Tyrone Van Aswegen ($6,200) – All aboard the Ass Wagon this week! Out of nowhere, Van Aswegen has made the cut in all four events this fall, punctuated by a 3rd place finish at the Frys.com. He has been able to do it largely on the strength of his putter this year, which is a little unusual for him. He has missed the cut in both starts at Sea Island so this is a pure form play at a cheap price. I will have him in a couple of GPP lineups this week.

PUKE AND RALLY

Ben Crane ($6,200) – I felt so smug after the first round last week when Crane sat at -4 and was looking like a potential contender. By Friday, I was less than pleased as Crane fumbled away his chances and blew the cut. However, that round is really the only poor round he has had all year out of 12. He ridiculously DQ’d himself at The Shriners, but was on pace to make the cut and finish well there. I am in need of more Crane pain this week so I am headed back for another round. Of course, it should be noted that Crane won here in 2011 and has made the cut in 2/3 starts so I think he is definitely worth the risk for the price…for one more week.

Good Luck!

-myzteriouzly

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