The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – RBC Canadian Open

We knew at the beginning of the year that fantasy golf would one day become the second largest fantasy sport in the industry. We just had no idea that it would happen within the first six months of the year. What was once being debated at the start of the year now seems to have become a reality as The Open proved to be another enormous success for DraftKings and its third edition of the Millionaire Maker for the PGA.

As for the tournament itself, we had all the drama of the previous two majors with the added bonus of a three man playoff to top it all off. Zach Johnson prevailed over Louis Oosthuizen and Marc Leishman to win his second major of his career and continued his strong resurgence this year after a bit of a slow start to the season. I was really happy for Johnson, but a little irritated with myself as Johnson was the last name I had cut from my list of golfers last week. If you do not believe me, go check out the article that we submitted to ESPN the week prior as he did in fact make the list for my initial analysis.

I liked Johnson last week, but he was a borderline play for me. He had missed the cut at St Andrews back in 2005 and finished in the 70s back in 2010. That, combined with the fact that the course really plays well for the bigger hitters made him a big question mark for me. The other issue that I factored in were the results from the Scottish Open which pushed a few players more prominently into the mix as playing well plus less travel seemed to be a good combination for a more successful run at St Andrews. Oh well, happy to see Johnson win as he is a class act in every way and has played fantastic golf all year. I just wish I had stuck to my original take.

The picks overall last week were okay. The guys that I hit played fantastic and were for the most part, pretty high up the leaderboard. We had five players in the Top 12 and seven in the Top 20. It would have been even better except for the fact that Dustin Johnson again melted down in terrible fashion losing six strokes over the last two days to go from being the clear favorite to a mediocre T49 finish. Charl Schwartzel also inexplicably crashed in the 4th round shooting a +7. He started the day just one shot behind Zach Johnson just to give you some perspective on how their respective rounds finished up.

The big story on Friday was the cut line. The brutal Scottish weather reared its ugly head on Thursday and Friday and scattered players all over the course. It made for some tricky play as golfers did their best to work through the rain and winds to keep from losing ground. When the weather subsided, players across the board went really low with their scores so the weather really did factor in tremendously to the results as it turned out that those first out of the gates on Thursday ended up with the best of it even though the original predictions seemed to state that the opposite would be true. Jeff Bergerson capitalized on this strategy in the qualifier event, boldly playing six golfers with Thursday morning tee times in what was a strong contrarian play that ended up leading him to victory and a second seat at the Fantasy Golf World Championship in Boston over Labor Day Weekend in September.

Unfortunately, for a couple of our picks, they just could not find their stride on Friday. Shane Lowry started off the first round pretty strong and was sitting at -3 going into the dreaded 17th hole where he posted an 8 and ended the day at +1. He fought the weather on Friday and made it back to Even…for one hole and could not gain back the stroke he needed to make the cut. Tommy Fleetwood finished the first round at -3, but then could not make a birdie on Friday and had a few rough holes to finish one stroke off the cut as well. It was a frustrating day as both players entered the tournament playing well and both are solid links course players. Given the opportunity, I would play them again. The Open can be difficult to time in terms of the weather and how players will perform in certain conditions and we were just a little unlucky with these two. Overall, for the week, 13 of 17 picks made the cut, putting me at just over 76% for the week. It was not a bad week, but not a great week either.

This week, the tour moves on to Canada for the RBC Canadian Open. The great part of this event is that RBC sponsors a number of the higher ranked players so that while the temptation would normally be high for some of these players to withdraw or not play with quite the same level of motivation, with a sponsor like RBC pushing for a strong showing, most of these golfers will be motivated to play their best game. The tournament is played at Glen Abbey this year, but it does rotate across several courses from year to year. As you look at the tournament history, focus in on the years that the event was played at Glen Abbey as opposed to the other host courses. The most recent year that it took place here was back in 2013. Previously, it was also held here in 2009, 2008, 2004 and 2000.

The course measures out at 7253 yards and plays as a Par 72 with four Par 5 holes and four Par 3 holes. Reports from the course claim that the rough is nearly non-existent which means that the bigger hitters that can score on the Par 5 holes will be at an advantage. The first stat I will look at will be Total Driving, but a lack of accuracy will not necessarily keep me away from some of the players that are strong in the Strokes Gained Tee to Green category. As usual, Greens in Regulation is important and as I mentioned previously, Par 5 scoring will play a big role here as winning scores tend to get down to the -15 to -18 range for this event. This leads me to also check out birdie average as finding players that can score is very important, particularly so in the DraftKings format which rewards those players that have the ability to score.

Finally, I want to talk a little bit of strategy for the week. The pricing this week for DraftKings is really screwy. There are a lot of players that way overpriced a number that are well underpriced. Coming out of a major event, the temptation will be high for you to play as much or even more than normal after all the buzz from last week. Avoid this temptation as much as possible. Weeks like this are tricky to project. With a lot of the bigger name players coming back from Scotland on short rest (even shorter with the Monday finish), the players are going to be worn down. As was the case a couple of weeks ago, where a lot of $6500 players were priced at $8000 or higher, it gets tougher to put together a cash game lineup with six mid tier players that you can reasonably expect to make the cut. In weeks like this, I would suggest playing 60%-70% of what you would normally allocate from your bankroll and play more GPPs as opposed to cash games due to the increase in variance of how certain players perform at particular salary levels.

As always, I am available all day on Twitter as soon as I wake up from the nap that I take after finishing my column. Check in with me with your lineups and questions and I promise to do my best to answer everyone’s e-mail or tweet. If you find yourself in a sweat for a big prize, be sure to let us know as we’ve already had a number of folks from the FGI crew win substantial prizes this year.

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BLUE CHIPS

Bubba Watson ($11,100) – Bubba got a head start getting back to Canada by making sure he blew the cut at The Open which should allow for him to be a little more rested than some of the other top contenders. Bubba missed the cut here back in 2008 and 2009, but rebounded to finish in 21st in 2013. With Bubba being as long as he is off the tee and playing great from tee to green, this course should suit his game well. While he tends to play poorly at major events outside of The Masters, he usually comes to play in tournaments where he can score at will. Bubba ranks 26th in Total Driving, 73rd in GIR and 4th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green. He ranks 11th in birdie average and 1st in Par 5 scoring so I expect Bubba to bounce back to put forth a strong showing this week.

Jim Furyk ($10,700) – Outside of his win at The Heritage, it has been a bit of a quiet year for Furyk. He is still making the occasional Top 10, just not as frequently as we’ve come to expect. That said, his history at Glenn Abbey is very good where he has finished 9th and 14th in his last two starts. He enters the event coming off of a 30th place finish at The Open so he may be a bit tired, but he has the maturity to get himself rested and ready to go. He ranks 83rd in Total Driving due to his lack of length off the tee, but makes up for it by in his tee to green game (7th) and ability to hit greens (15th). He hasn’t putted as well this year and his lack of length is a concern as he does not score that well on Par 5 holes, but his familiarity with the course and past success should help him out this week.

Matt Kuchar ($10,100) – Kuchar is another big name player that has not had the success this year that we are used to seeing. With his 2nd place finish at the Scottish Open two weeks ago, the pendulum may be swinging in the other direction. He was fairly nondescript at The Open, but did manage to make the cut as he nearly always will do. He also finished in 2nd place at Glen Abbey back in 2013. He ranks 136th in Total Driving, 95th in GIR and 60th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green. He does offset some of his deficiencies with his putting where he ranks 7th bringing him up to 21st overall in Total Strokes Gained. Kuchar ranks 42nd in birdie average (7th in eagle average) and 9th in Par 5 scoring. This is a great event for Kuchar to continue his mid-season resurgence.

JB Holmes ($9900) – Holmes struggled at The Open missing the cut last week and is not quite as hot as he was back in February and March, but he does have certain skills that make him a great play this week. Holmes has a second place finish at Doral this year and won at the Shell Houston Open. He has been taking a bit more time off of late, but did fare well at the US Open where he finished in 27th. Holmes finished in 16th in his lone trip to Glen Abbey back in 2009 and should have a chance to improve upon that this year. Holmes ranks 74th in Total Driving, 123rd in GIR and 11th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green. I love Holmes this week as he can score big points on a course like this as he ranks 4th in eagle average and 8th in birdie average. He also ranks 42nd in Par 5 scoring.

Brooks Koepka ($9300) – I am not sure what this guy needs to do to make people believe in his talent, but apparently he has not done enough as he still does not receive near the attention that he deserves. He can be a bit erratic at times, but like owning equities, you just have to close your eyes sometimes and ride out the volatility. He is a brilliant shot maker that hits the ball long off the tee and finds greens. He is also a very good putter making him dangerous in any tournament he enters. He comes in off of a 10th place finish at The Open a 22nd place finish at The Scottish Open and an 18th place finish at The US Open. Koepka ranks 40th in Total Driving, 18th in GIR and 45th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green. His putting is top notch (9th), lifting him to 12th in Total Strokes Gained. He is 22nd in birdie average and 1st in eagle average which allows him to post some amazing point totals. Not surprisingly, he also ranks 6th in Par 5 scoring making him a great play for a course built towards his strengths.

VALUE PLAYS

Tony Finau ($9200) – Going into the John Deere Classic, Finau had finished in the Top 25 seven straight times. Then I picked him again for our roster of players and he rolled over and missed the cut. He took last week off so he should be one of the more well rested players for this event. I expect that at a course like this one, there is a good chance he gets back to hi Top 25 ways this weekend. Finau ranks 88th in Total Driving due to his inaccuracy, 68th in GIR and 33rd in Strokes Gained Tee to Green. Finau can score as he ranks 15th in birdie average and 45th in Par 5 scoring average. Finau can also be a bit erratic, but overall his form has been among the best on tour.

Charley Hoffman ($9200) – Charley has missed the cut in his last two events. However, both were majors at difficult courses that did not really suit his game well. Prior to that, Hoffman was playing the best golf of his career. He has five Top 10 finishes this year and two more 11th place finishes. In his last two starts at Glenn Abbey, he finished 16th in 2013 and 28th in 2008. As his last quality finish was at the end of May, I think people will have forgotten how good he was leading up to the majors this summer and he could be overlooked. Hoffman ranks 69th in Total Driving, 45th in GIR and 36th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green. He is not a great putter, but he should not need to be this week. He ranks 45th in Par 5 scoring and 21st in birdie average making him a strong play at a reasonable price.

Jerry Kelly ($7900) – There is quite the drop in talent below the $9000 range. There are a lot of pretenders in the $8000-9000 range this week and while there are some good players in that range, many are simply priced too high for me on a risk versus return basis. At $7900, I am just interested enough to take a shot on Jerry Kelly. Kelly had five consecutive solid showings before hitting a small blip and missing the cut in back to back events. Fortunately, he rebounded nicely to finish in 17th place at The John Deere Classic. In two previous appearances at Glen Abbey, Kelly finished 5th in 2009 and 37th in 2008. He did not have a great start to his season, but when he makes the cut, he tends to finish in the Top 30, making him especially valuable in GPP events. He’s not great in terms of total driving due to a lack of distance, but he is accurate (14th) and good from tee to green (77th) and very good putting (27th). He makes a fair amount of birdies (42nd) and 81st in Par 5 scoring. He probably does not have the distance to contend, but he does have a chance at a good finish at this event.

Brian Harman ($7800) – A nice value play for the week with some upside potential, Brian Harman also started the season slowly before coming on over the last month or so. He finished 3rd at The Travelers and 24th at the John Deere Classic before missing the cut at The Open by one stroke. I think he will continue his streak of quality play this week. In one appearance at Glen Abbey he missed the cut, but he is a much better player now. He ranks 85th in Total Driving, 80th in GIR and 81st in Strokes Gained Tee to Green. He is only 81st in Par 5 scoring, but his stats have improved across the board during his recent play. Harman is also a nice GPP play in that when he plays well, he can contend and I expect him to make a push this week.

William McGirt ($7600) – McGirt has been middle of the road this year, but did finish in 2nd place here in 2013 making him an attractive pick for the week. If he makes the cut, he’s got some upside potential. He’s played well at The Canadian Open overall with a second place finish in 2012 and made the cut all four years so that is another positive note working in our favor. His distance off the tee is a bit of a concern, but he is accurate and is ranked 80th in Total Driving. He ranks 69th in GIR and 42nd in Strokes Gained Tee to Green. He doesn’t hit as many birdies as we’d like, but does rank 56th in Par 5 scoring. He is not a slam drunk, but I like him just enough to pay this price to have him in a few lineups.

Scott Langley ($7100) – A pure form play for our teams this week, Langley has really stepped up his play over the last 6 events he’s been in making five of six cuts and four Top 30 finishes. In his long appearance at Glen Abbey, Langley finished in 52nd in 2013 so he is at least familiar with the surroundings. He has no stats to back up my analysis as his play was really miserable to start the season, but the last six events gave us a glimpse of the potential that is there. Ride the streak of good play as his price makes him a nice value play this week.

SLEEPERS

Scott Pinckney ($7200) – Here’s another play on good form coming into an event as Pinckney has now finished in the Top 25 in six of his last twelve events. This marks his first appearance at Glen Abbey but should be a good course for his debut at The Canadian Open. He lacks the numbers to back the recommendation throughout the entire season, but has shown a lot of improvement the last few months. His one main strength is that he putts the ball well which should keep him in the event through the weekend. He works well in the sleeper category as I do not think he will be highly owned, but has the potential to outplay his price if he makes the cut. A nice recipe for a GPP play.

Greg Owen ($7000) – In selecting players in the sleeper range, I am looking for players on the upswing that hopefully have not attracted too big of a crowd in terms of ownership. One more strong performance out of Owen and that will probably be the case. My hope is that he will not be owned by more than 4-5% of the field for the week as there is a very good chance he will outperform his price again at Glen Abbey. He has made the cut in four of his last five starts including two Top 10 finishes and a 20th place finish at The Open last weekend. He is not great in total driving (113th), but does hit greens (25th) and plays well from tee to green (65th). His putting game is a mess, but hopefully this course helps his cause. In his last appearance at Glen Abbey, Owen finished in 12th place so he certainly has the potential for a strong finish.

Ollie Schniederjans ($6200) – It is hard to envision Ollie being owned by less than 5% of the field this week, but I still think he could be below 10% and at this price, he is one of the best sleeper plays available this week. After an impressive 12th place finish at The Open and a 42nd place finish at The U.S. Open, Ollie has played his way through two very tough courses. He will make his professional debut this week and it is a great course to do it at. He gets great distance off the tee, reasonably accurate, hits greens and putts pretty well from the limited stats collected on him. It is a surprise to see his price this low this week.

Vijay Singh ($6200) – Singh has played in the Canadian Open 13 times finishing in the Top 10 six times. For Glen Abbey, he placed 31st in 2013 and won the event in 2004. Vijay is a nice play this week as he is only playing courses right now that favor his game. He is still a tremendous tee to green player (20th), which tends to keep him competitive in events even if his putting is still lousy. He is another good play for GPP events as when he plays well in events, he is still competitive for a high finish. He does have the potential to burn us, as do the other sleepers so don’t move all your chips in on him, but he is certainly one to look for in the sleeper category this week.

Chad Campbell ($6200) – He came through for us at the John Deere Classic and despite his success, his price has not risen. In fact, he is even cheaper now than he was before. He has now made the cut in five straight events and in his two starts at Glen Abbey, he finished in 16th in 2013 and 26th in 2004. He is pretty weak off the tee, but his accuracy helps to compensate for that pushing him to 93rd in Total Driving. He ranks 40th in GIR and 62nd in Strokes Gained Tee to Green. His putting is slightly below average, but he is 45th in Par 5 scoring. If he makes the cut, he will easily provide value for his price so let’s stick with him while he is playing well.

Those are the picks for the week, 16 players to work with and plenty of sleepers with potential. It won’t be a perfect week, I am sure, but I am not here to simply pick all players above $7500 either. I am sure I could easily average over 80% every week if I grabbed only players in the upper ranges, but I would be doing you a disservice if I did that just for the sake of my numbers.

Best of Luck!

-myzteriouzly

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