The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – OHL Classic

As an emotional election rages on late into the night, we turn our attention back to the important things in life, the PGA Tour and other fantasy sports. Regardless of who is angry in the morning, sports will carry on and help as a distraction for those who are disappointed. After almost 18 months of endless campaigning, I think that politics itself has become almost a sport in the modern era with all of the debates, commercials, interviews and polls there helping to serve as a sort of makeshift scoreboard. The emotional ties to or just against a particular candidate have rarely hit levels as high as 2016 so the winner. This just goes to illustrate how much better daily fantasy sports is than season long. If you are crushed this morning by the results of the election last night, you’ve got to wait over two years just to begin the cycle all over again. We are lucky here in that each week gives us a chance to regroup and reevaluate our strategy and start fresh. What better way to start fresh this week than to head down to Mexico, where the peso is plummeting, for the OHL Classic at Mayakoba.

Last week was another tricky week for cash games. While we were able to pull off a win with one of our three optimal lineups, it was still a frustrating week. I was stunned to watch Kevin Na fall apart on Friday morning on a course where he had a great deal of experience and was even a past winner. His missed cut certainly took us from having a profitable week in cash to experiencing a loss. There just is not a lot we can do to avoid pitfalls like that. When top players blow the cut, especially ones with local ties and a lot of experience, we just have to shrug our shoulders and move on. There is not any real use in being upset about it as there is not going to be anything that we adjust in our process when it comes to selecting top players like Na for our rosters. Fortunately, with the contests being on the small side this fall, it really has not given us a chance to put a lot of our bankroll at risk from week to week so the down weeks have been on the smaller side. This week, however, looks to be the start of our rebound.

The event this week will be played in Mayakoba at El Camaleon where we have plenty of tournament history going back over the last decade. The course is just under 7,000 yards long and plays as a Par 71 so it is a bit on the short side meaning it is a little less of a bomber course than most others. Players that tend to do well here are those that are good ball strikers with an emphasis on hitting greens. You do not want to get too far off the fairway on this seaside course as there is water to contend with along with canals and mangroves. Outside of the ordinary stats that show up from week to week, a few stood out as noteworthy as provided to us by our friends at Fantasy Golf Metrics:

Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 25%
Strokes Gained Putting: 25%
Birdie or Better Percentage: 25%
Prox 150-175: 10%
Par 4 Scoring: 10%
Driving Distance: 5%

In terms of strategy, I would advise you to continue to exercise prudence in how much of your bankroll you are willing to put at risk. The field for the event is weak again and the contests are not that large. The cash game rosters that I built earlier and that you will assemble certainly do not feel like normal cash lineups during the year. When you know that the cut will take out a more proportional share of expensive players than normal, it is a good opportunity to back off a bit and play a little lower.

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The optimal lineups took us on a rollercoaster ride last week. A couple of key golfers fell back early in Tony Finau and Jamie Lovemark. Finau rallied back for us and Lovemark got to within a stroke, but could not finish the late miracle comeback to help us out. While getting Finau through helped immensely, Kevin Na somehow came out of nowhere on Friday morning to shoot terribly and miss the cut, chopping out the legs for two of our teams.

As I look at the way I constructed the rosters last week, I feel pretty good about the overall process. Both Na and Lovemark showed up well on the model, had reasonable form and good course history. When I make a risky pick and it fails to bring value to our lineup, I usually am just kicking myself over the decision. However, more often than not, both of those players are going to make the cut at The Shriners and there is also a good chance that one or both is a contender. We have had a couple of tough weeks here in cash games, but we were able to squeak out a win in one of the three last week so at least it was not a total loss. We just have to be consistent each week with our process in terms of bankroll management and roster selection and over the course of the season, I am highly confident that things will play out in our favor.

The players we are building around this week are those who have had great recent form and good success at Mayakoba. The field is a little on the softer side this week so I am hoping that we can rely on that experience from a couple of key players to carry us through. I am using Jon Rahm, CHIII and Hudson Swafford on two of the three rosters. Rahm has a skillset that translates well to any course and is one of those bombers that is excellent with his putter as well which is a rare combination for fields like this. CHIII had an exceptional season last year before an injury slowed him up. He hurt us a couple of weeks ago, but bounced back well last week and has always fared well at Mayakoba with five Top-20 finishes in seven starts with just a single missed cut. Hudson Swafford continues to be another cut maker with the occasional shot at some upside. His middle and long iron game fits the course here well and while I am not expecting him to contend, making the cut at $7,500 is all we are looking for this week. Swafford has made the cut here in two of three starts.

The three optimal lineups are as follows:

Russell Knox – $11,800
Billy Horschel – $9,300
Hudson Swafford – $7,500
Charles Howell III – $7,500
Harold Varner III – $7,100
Trey Mullinax – $6,800

Jon Rahm – $10,700
Keegan Bradley – $10,000
Johnson Wagner – $8,400
Charles Howell III – $7,500
Billy Hurley III – $6,800
Jim Herman – $6,400

Jon Rahm – $10,700
Harris English – $9,500
Gary Woodland – $8,600
Hudson Swafford – $7,500
Ryan Blaum – $6,900
Fabian Gomez – $6,600

CORE

Russell Knox – $11,800 – 50%
Jon Rahm – $10,700 – 50%
Charles Howell III – $7,500 – 50%
Harold Varner III – $7,100 – 50%
Billy Hurley III – $6,800 – 40%
Hudson Swafford – $7,500 – 40%

Our core group this week features players that have played well here in the past and have some definite upside potential at an event where there should be plenty of scoring opportunities. Russell Knox is priced on the high side by quite a bit this week, and usually I would stay away up hat high, but in this case, I think his price will be enough to cap his ownership numbers from getting out of control and making him a reasonable pick for us. As the field overall is on the soft side, I do not feel like I need to load up on the players in the $8,000-10,000 range this week as there is plenty of value in the middle and lower ranges. There really are not any players in the field that are a lock for the Top-10 this week. Knox has made the cut in all four of his starts here including a 2nd place finish a year ago. Knox has been playing really consistent golf of late and should be able to continue that this week.

John Rahm posted a 15th place finish last week to go along with the 15th that he posted to start the year at the Safeway. Rahm is good and is only going to get better as the season moves along. With such power off the tee and exceptional putter, these weak fields with many scoring opportunities is ideal for Rahm. He finished 10th here a year ago and should be back in the Top-10 again this week.

Charles Howell III has been a cash game staple the last couple of years and after a bumpy start to the year, he bounced back a week ago to finish 15th at The Shriners. Howell is excellent from tee to green and showed some improvement with his putter last year leading to a dozen Top-25 finishes. As mentioned above, he has always fared well at Mayakoba with five Top-20 finishes in seven starts and just one missed cut.

Harold Varner III fits the profile of what we are looking for this week in terms of a solid tee to green player with a little bit of distance off the tee. He tends to struggle in tough fields and on challenging courses, but Mayakoba offers neither of those obstacles this week which should lead to HVIII being in the mix for at least the first couple of rounds. He finished 5th here a year ago and has made his last five cuts overall.

Hudson Swafford is another player like CHIII that is becoming almost a ‘must start’ each week for cash games as he rarely misses a cut anymore. He has made two of three cuts in his starts at Mayakoba and his mid to long iron game matches up well for the course. Swafford should be able to keep his cut streak going this week and if he can just avoid the big disaster holes, he could have a shot at a Top-25 finish.

Billy Hurley III continues our narratives of going with III’s today. Actually, since winning last summer at the Quicken Loans National, Hurley has been playing really good golf, missing just one cut in an eleven start stretch. Hurley has also played well at Mayakoba making the cut in all three of his starts there. Hurley does not have much of a tee to green game, but putts the ball well, has solid iron play and was one of the better ranking Par 4 players on tour last season. We are going to need to find a relative bargain player in the range to load up on to offset our high salary exposure at the top and Hurley has the talent to get through the cut to pay off his price.

SECONDARY

Keegan Bradley – $10,000 – 25% – has not missed a cut since the US Open, finished here a year ago, excellent ball striker, improving his putting, 8th here in 2015
Alex Cejka – $7,300 – 20% – Statistically sound for the course, good tee to green, good putter, three straight Top-30 finishes to start the season
Ryan Blaum – $6,900 – 20% – Rookie who has made the cut in all three starts this season, finished 29th here last season, good tee to green and putting
Marc Leishman – $8,500 – 20% – excellent strokes gained tee to green and putting all last season, has not given us many top finishes, but should make the cut, has upside
Patrick Rodgers – $7,200 – 20% – erratic, up and down player with huge potential, has had success here the last two years, needs to putt well to make the cut
Billy Horschel – $9,300 – 15% – Quiet schedule of late, returned last week and finished 41st, strong ball striker, made cut here in both starts
Jason Kokrak – $7,900 – 15% – two straight Top-20 finishes at Mayakoba, big hitter who can score, not usually a great cash play, but has the upside for GPP
Chris Kirk – $9,600 – 15% – has been playing well in recent months, had three recent Top-10 finishes, first start here
Derek Fathauer – $8,300 – 15% – 4th place here last season, three for three making the cut this season, a little volatile, but tee to green game improving
Gary Woodland – $8,600 – 15% – made cut in only start here, made the cut in both starts this season, big hitter who can score often, missed only 4 cuts last season
Fabian Gomez – $6,600 – 15% – 2/2 making the cut at Mayakoba, had not missed a cut since the PGA Championship
Luke List – $7,800 – 15% – long ball hitter with a lot of scoring potential, has made the cut in his last for starts
Jamie Lovemark – $7,000 – 15% – disappointed owners by missing the cut by a stroke last week, a risky pick to make the cut, but has upside potential
Trey Mullinax – $6,800 – 15% – has started his rookie season by making the cut in all three starts so far, has an excellent putter

TERTIARY

Johnson Wagner – $8,400 – 10% – great record at Mayakoba with a win and three total finishes of 16th or better, excellent at hitting greens
Si Woo Kim – $8,900 – 10% – finished 17th here last year, a little on the pricey side, but has shown a lot of upside since winning at the Wyndham, 6 Top-10’s last season
Tony Finau – $9,400 – 10% – finished 7th in his lone start here in 2014, long ball hitter who can score, price is a little too high to buy a bigger share
Harris English – $9,500 – 10% – won here in 2013, has not missed a cut since The Players Championship in May
Adam Hadwin – $6,900 – 10% – 0/2 at Mayakoba, but statistically should be okay at the course, excellent putter
Martin Laird – $8,700 – 5% – a little pricey for Laird, 2/3 at Mayakoba, missed only one cut in his last nine starts
Shawn Stefani – $7,300 – 5% – coming off of a poor season, Stefani looked good finishing 10th last week, he has finished 25th and 2nd in two starts at Mayakoba
David Hearn – $6,200 – 5% – 4/4 making the cut at Mayakoba, struggling to start the season, but played well the last half of last season and is a cheap play this week
Jim Herman – $6,400 – 5% – two straight Top-25 finishes here, shorter hitter, but helps himself by hitting a lot of greens
Chez Reavie – $6,400 – 5% – improved his tee to green game last season, 3/3 at Mayakoba and 3/3 so far this sesaon
Ricky Barnes – $6,100 – 5% – 3/4 at Mayakoba, a cheap cut making option, missed just one cut since June

Good Luck!!

-myzteriouzly

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