The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – Genesis Open

The gods are paying me back in a big way for taking time away from winter a few weeks ago in San Diego. Upon leaving, I thought to myself that it had been so mild during the first two months of winter that we just might make it through the season with minimal pain and upheaval. Of course, that was right before February reared its ugly head. I do not know about the rest of you out there, but February is by far, my least favorite month of the year. It’s bad enough that football season is over and we’re still two months from The Masters, but the lack of exciting sporting events this time of year leaves me with an overwhelming feeling of dread. What is it that I am supposed to do with myself to get through the rest of the winter as the snow piles up higher and higher by the day? I want to continue to stay motivated to keep working out this year and yet there are days when the drive is just too much to deal with. For Jeff, it is even more fun as he enters the brunt of tax season and feels the life being slowly sapped out of him one return at a time. Fortunately, we still have some great golf tournaments to ease our pain over the next two months and the condensed schedule really helps to tighten up the loose ends and pushes back a lot of the throwaway events until summertime.

I had another solid performance last week with my rosters for Pebble Beach. Although it was an event where I recommended staying or limiting cash games, I did manage to field a winning squad. We know every week going in that it will rarely be easy and last week was no exception as I managed to get only three players through the cut for my cash roster. Surprisingly, I didn’t even have that much of a sweat with my 3/6 team on Sunday as Paul Casey, RCB and Grace limped to the finish line and got me into the money. Even on weeks where I recommend going light, I will still always have at least one team in play to be in the fray with all of you. If you are interested in seeing what my final roster was, come check out the $250 double up each week as that will be where I play even on limited weeks. I haven’t found that higher dollar entry fees equate to better overall play when it comes to PGA cash games so it’s the perfect single entry for me to jump into each week, especially since there are so few single entry events available in PGA compared to NFL.

For GPP contests, I had a nice week overall, but will be kicking myself for a long time after missing a chance for a big win. I enjoy the 3 entry max events and hopped into the Pat Mayo event and the 3 entry max, $150 event. Many weeks I will use the same lineups in each, but elected to mix it up last week and built different lineups for each around my core players. While I was excited to take 11th in Mayo’s event and win $250, that same lineup in the $150 event would have been good enough for 3rd place and $7000. The core played really well for us last week. I had heavy exposure to Phil, Casey, Day, RCB and Mullinax to name just a few so I had a lot of rosters that were in good position with top performers. Where I got hurt was in the value tier, particularly the lower $7k range where it seemed like every value play I laid eyes on fell apart and missed the cut. Sunjae Im and Sneds both hurt me in the $8k range and Jimmy Walker and Chesson Hadley burned me in the lower $7k range. I did have some shares of Lucas Glover, Scott Piercy, Kevin Streelman, Brandon Harkins, Brian Gay and Michael Thompson to help propel a few teams up the leaderboard, but JB Holmes, Shane Lowry, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Nick Watney and Corey Conners all worked to limit my upside in the big $5 event where I saw a few solid teams enter the Top-100 on Sunday, only to fall back as only two of my teams remained fully intact going into the final round.

Overall, it marked another profitable week for me, marking the 3rd in row. I’ve mostly been grinding along, making a few hundred dollars each week and getting oh so close to punching a nice GPP score, but that’s PGA DFS for me. It is a game of patience where I slowly build my bankroll and continue to give myself opportunities each week in GPP contests. I know that there are only going to be a few weeks all year where everything comes together and I have a shot at something big, but the game plan that I have mapped out for the year is set up in such a way that makes it easier for me to follow and to not get too impulsive or impatient in chasing down events that I feel are less profitable.

This week, the tour heads to Riviera Country Club in LA for the Genesis Open. It has become one of my favorite events each year and this year will be no different as again, we have one of the best fields assembled for an event that is not a major. In truth, Riviera could be used to host a major as it offers the right combination of length, and the perfect test of ball striking skills that would fit the PGA Championship. Seeing that Quail Hollow is one of the comp course worth looking at this week, it seems like a great candidate, especially with the event falling in May moving forward. The course plays at over 7,300 yards and is a Par 71. Outside of one short Par 4 on the 10th hole and the short (503 yard) Par 5, 1st hole, this is a really tough course, especially for those that are lacking in distance off the tee. There are six Par 4 holes that are at least 458 yards in length. The fairways are kikuya grass and tough to hit. While the rough is minimal here, the greens are also small and this course has one of the lowest GIR percentages on tour with plenty of bunkers to protect them. The greens are poa so be sure to get back into the mindset of looking at regional players who tend to putt best during this southwest swing.

If all of that does not sound tough enough, this week will also present more weather issues like last week. Thursday, the winds are expected to be very gusty, getting up to 35 mph late in the morning from what I am seeing on the hour by hour superforecast. Be sure you look at the hour by hour for the most accurate report. I typically wait until Wednesday night to build all of my rosters and I would suggest doing the same this week. It looks like there could be a very favorable wave developing for the PM/AM wave, but I do not want to commit to that quite yet until I get a better look at Friday’s hourly forecast tomorrow. Do not let yourself fall into the trap of ‘weather does not matter’. I hear these buffoons pop up every year on Twitter and they are proven wrong almost immediately with their incessant babbling. Rob Bolton is a solid follow on Twitter just for the round splits alone. Each week on Thursday and Friday I always check to see what the differential was each day and for the first two days. There are going to be events where it can be more than a two shot difference. That is enormous in the world of DFS so if you are not in the habit of checking the weather each week, get on it now, especially if you are a cash game player. Picking the right wave can mean all the difference between being a winning or losing player some seasons. Set windfinder.com as a favorite on your computer and look at it on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday night each week. If you are a showdown player, this is the first thing to look at each week. Shockingly, there are still people out there that miss out on doing this. Their ‘models’ do not incorporate weather. Fortunately, your brain is smart enough to take this into consideration as it is the most obvious edge available for single day contests and even for the two day weekend events.

Key Stats

Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 25%
Strokes Gained Putting: 20%
Birdie or Better Percentage: 20%
Par 4 Scoring: 10%
Prox 150-175: 10%
Scrambling: 10%
Driving Distance: 5%

 

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