The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – Genesis Open
Many times throughout the year, you will hear me talk about events that are not majors, but have a similar feel to majors. The Farmers, WM Phoenix Open, The Players, Memorial and Genesis Open are a few events where we get an opportunity to play fantasy golf with a loaded field where everyone shows up at the top and the middle is filled with a lot of strong value plays. These are great weeks as it tends to spread ownership out among the field and makes it more of a contest for picking the right players instead of just the obvious ones….almost.
The ‘almost’ at the end of the last paragraph is in reference to some of the very strange pricing that we continue to see on DraftKings each week. Initially, we just chalked it up as a mistake, but it is becoming more of a trend for PGA this year and I think it is here to stay. Last season, when the pricing would get a little bit challenging, it made it very tough for owners to get six players through the cut. For a lot of folks, this can ruin the experience as their teams float listlessly through the weekend without a chance of winning. The fun of DFS golf is that you are supposed to get a four day sweat with each round offering a slightly different feel to what you are watching and how you get to cheer for your team and how you get to cheer against other teams. The first day revolves around hoping your team gets off to a decent start and that nobody gets in big trouble out of the gates. The second day is the cut sweat which is unlike anything else in fantasy sports. The third day, you are looking for a move from the players that you own who are lagging behind and finally on Sunday you have the rush of hoping that those in contention can close the deal and that those dragging your team down down do not throw in the towel and can make a little run.
Unfortunately, when owners are crippled by Friday afternoon, they miss out on the rush of Sundays and that happens a lot with golf when there is so much parody and the pricing gets tight. I believe that DraftKings is trying to find a way to make PGA a little more user friendly, and when I say user friendly, I mean they want to make it more appealing to a broader audience. If the novice players get frustrated, they end up leaving the game after a few challenging weeks. While the seasoned players may get a little frustrated with the softer pricing, they should also realize that more players in the game overall is good for everyone involved and keeps our game growing. It may be a bit of an adjustment, but instead of getting frustrated, just make adjustments to your strategy and game selection.
Obviously, ownership percentages are going to shift and value plays are going to spring up that everyone can recognize. For cash games, the adjustment will be to tighten up the players that you look at for cash each week. There is less reason to take any risk if you do not have to do so. Like I always tell folks, keep it boring. Do not overthink it. Yes, these players can still miss the cut as Jim Furyk and Matt Kuchar proved to us last week, but over time, these types of player are going to be consistent cut makers so do not get too frustrated with the process. The goal, as always, is to make less mistakes than your opponents. Predictability in who will make or miss the cut should help us out over time, even if we have seen some strange results over the past few weeks.
In terms of GPP lineup composition, we really need to pay closer attention to the types of lineups that are winning in the big events from week to week if pricing remains soft moving forward. With softer pricing, you can build a lot more aggressively and get a lot more bang for your buck. This should really open things up in terms of what the winning lineups look like. If the big chalk play hits like Shane Lowry did last week, the total aggregate ownership percentage is going to be higher. There are also going to be more paths to victory each week as previously, it was very difficult to stack two stars on a roster where now it is actually very easy to do and you can do it without having the rest of your team look totally repugnant. Last week is the perfect example of this new sort of chaos in the GPP world. Aggregate ownership was all over the place for the $3 (around 85%), the $33 (around 50%) and the $333 (over 100%). Jordan Spieth was only on two of the three winning rosters. The second highest scorer was different on all three rosters. No player is on all three winning rosters and only two others beyond Spieth are on two (Noh and Lowry) and the $33 winner nearly outscored the $3 winner. Prepare to see a lot more of this in the weeks to come and watch the trends closely as it will be important throughout the season to see how strategies evolve.
This week the tour moves on to the last leg of the California swing this season as the players head to Riviera Country Club for the Genesis Open. The tournament was formerly known as the Northern Trust Open, but NT shifted its sponsorship to later in the season, taking over for Barclays during the FedEx Cup playoffs. The field is as strong as we will see outside of a major with eight of the Top-10 ranked players in the world making the trip to southern California for the festivities. The only two in the Top-10 not in attendance are Henrik Stenson and Rory McIlroy (who would be here if he were not nursing an injury). The course itself plays at around 7,350 yards and is a Par 71 with three Par 5 holes and four Par 3 holes. The greens are Poa Annua and the fairways are kikuya grass (more common in Australia, New Zealand, South Africa and Southern California).
This is challenging course for players in that most of the Par 4 holes are over 450 yards in length putting iron and approach play at a premium this week. Not surprisingly, driving distance and Par 5 scoring also figure heavily into the mix beyond our normal strokes gained and scoring stats. What is also important to note is that this is usually an event where the best players rise to the top. Even when James Hahn won back in 2015, he beat out DJ and Paul Casey in a playoff so golfers like Sergio Garcia, Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson have all stood out here over the years. While not an exact comparison course, Augusta National looks like a similar style course in terms of length and layout with the difference being that Augusta has Bermuda grass in the fairways and bent grass on the greens (similar to poa annua). The reason I make the comparison is that it looks like left handed player tend to show up pretty well with Bubba Watson, Phil Mickelson and Mike Weir all having won at Riviera two times. Of course, all three have also won at Augusta.
The weather looks like it will be an issue again this week. Thursday looks reasonable with the rains holding off until the end of the day. Friday looks like a mess. High winds in excess of 20 mph are expected and there is a 100% chance of rain. I still have not seen an hour by hour breakdown of the weather for Friday, but recommend checking tomorrow night as you start to lock down your final lineups before the initial tee time as there may be a strategy for selecting specific tee times on Thursday that play to our advantage.
The key stats this week as brought to us from our friends at Fantasy Golf Metrics are as follows:
Strokes Gained Tee to Green:
Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 30%
Strokes Gained Putting: 20%
Birdie or Better Percentage: 20%
Prox 100-125: 15%
Driving Distance: 10%
Par 5 Scoring: 5%
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