The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – FedEx St Jude Classic
The Memorial proved to be one of the more frustrating events of the season for me personally. I had so many picks that worked out really well, but unfortunately, the two players that I went with for the heaviest weighting in Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm each timed up their implosion to take place the very same week. These are guys who rarely miss more than a cut or two all season so to miss at the same time was quite cataclysmic on the GPP side of events last week. It’s frustrating when this sort of thing happens, but at the same time, there just is not a lot that you can say about it as an analyst. They both ranked right up at the top of the model, both have played well all season and the pricing was set up in a way that made them each very easy to roster for the week and even to stack on a few teams.
There were so many high quality players between $6,500-6900 that it was a little overwhelming and felt a lot like the pricing that is place during the weeks where there are Millionaire Maker contests. Of all of the players in the core and secondary groups, only three missed the cut for the week and 16 of 19 cash game picks made it through the cut. Hopefully, you did not get too crazy with your cash teams as for the most part, I was able to make it through unscathed and had some profits over there to balance out the losses that I took in GPP contests. Once again, Weekend Only events were a source of strength for the FGI team as Jeff filled in for me on Friday night in a very admirable manner in putting together the weekend column. If you have been hesitant to try out the weekend events, give them a shot these next few weeks. I think you will find them to be just as thrilling as the normal events and the research is quick and easy to do (even if you do have to give up a little of your Friday night).
Before we leap into the FedEx St Jude Classic, I wanted to mention that pricing came out today for the US Open for both DraftKings and FanDuel this week. DraftKings waited an additional day to ensure that all of the golfers who qualified Monday made it into the initial player pool. There are only a handful of players in the field this week who still have a chance of qualifying for the US Open. However, it would require a win in order for Ian Poulter, Sung Kang or Danny Lee to qualify for the event at Erin Hills next week. While it is nice to have a little bit of a narrative to look for motivation with players, this is such a long shot in any given week that I do not see it changing the way any of them play. This is not like The Wyndham at the end of the regular season where you have a player needing a T33 or something along those lines to shoot for to save their tour card. We are already hard at work to bring you some early coverage of the event next week. Geoff Fienberg and I rambled away for 80 minutes last night in a first look segment for the tournament that is worth checking out. With these bigger events, it is always important to start looking at the betting odds a little further out than normal as the pricing movement is interesting to track in the weeks leading up to the tournament and can give you a good idea of who others are targeting.
Moving on to Memphis this week, we arrive at the FedEx St Jude Classic with one of the weaker fields that we will see all summer and it has been diminished even further with several notable withdrawals after Steve Stricker, Jamie Lovemark and Keegan Bradley all qualified for the US Open on Monday. Interestingly enough, a couple of the younger players who qualified this week in Peter Uihlein and JT Poston elected not to withdraw this week and will be in the field. Both players are doing well this season, but Poston is certainly not feeling too secure about his future at this point and is ranked 99th in FedEx Cup points while Uihlein is doing everything he can this summer to secure enough points to gain his tour card for the first time after playing in Europe over the last few years.
Anytime we get to an event the week prior to a major, I always like to remind folks that this is no time to get too crazy with your bankroll. The field, while weak, does contain a few top ranked players in the upper salary tiers during these sorts of events, but many times, those players do not shine quite so much as their attention is on the big event the following week. We saw this happen in Houston earlier this season before The Masters where several notable players blew the cut on Friday afternoon and skipped town to arrive at Augusta early. Given the challenging nature of Erin Hills next week, it would not surprise me in the least if a couple of these Top-20 player in the world types were not quite at their best this week. Two years ago, Dustin Johnson left a lasting impression on me with his withdrawal after nine holes of play due to an ‘illness’. He has been on a nice run over the years in Memphis and the field was so weak that it seemed like a low risk play. Unfortunately, with a player like DJ, on the wrong week, anything is possible.
Fortunately, in looking over the field this week, I am not seeing anything too distressing in terms of who is playing this week. Phil Mickelson has already announced that he will be skipping the US Open next week to attend his daughter’s high school graduation in a move that left Geoff Fienberg shaking his head and ranting away for a good 10 minutes in our initial look podcast. It’s a move that I am agnostic towards compared to the strong opinions of others. What it does is clear the stress of next week from clouding his play this week at an event he has handled really well over the years. Rickie Fowle looked great at The Memorial last week and played really well in Houston prior to The Masters so I am not too worried about a lack of effort there. Rickie is not usually the type to dump. Brooks Koepka has been very competitive here the last three seasons. With Brooks, it is also important for him to hold form as he will not want to break his recently gained momentum by playing poorly this week. Adam Scott does worry me a little bit this week. He floundered in Houston and as ‘Statboy’ Erik Dantoft likes to remind me, Scott is usually a guy you want to wait on until he gets to a major or other notable event. He rarely plays in Memphis. However, considering that he has not played that much this season relative to some of the other stars on tour, last week might have been his warmup and this week could see him make a move.
The course this week is TPC Southwind. It is a 7,244 yard course and plays as a Par 70. The greens are Bermuda and of average speed, but are small and challenging to hit and the recent lack of rain will make them firmer which will make it tougher for players to hit approach shots that will hold. The fairways are challenging to hit as again, the bigger hitters will not be able to rely on driver to set themselves up off the tee and there are just two Par-5 holes that present any significant scoring opportunities. Much like Muirfield a week ago, there are a lot of long Par 4’s in play this week as seven holes are above 450 yards. Given the layout and similarities, the course should play somewhat similarly to what we saw at The Memorial, but with a little more trouble for players to work around as water tends to be a huge factor here each season. Fortunately, in looking at the weather this week, we have two gorgeous days to start out the opening two round. Winds are going to be light on Thursday, touching 10 mph by late morning and dropping off the rest of the day. Friday, winds should be almost nil with sun all day. It is the weather that we have been dying for all season and it will be wasted on the tournament with some of the least fanfare. There is currently no advantage to weighting one tee time wave over the other. In situations like this, go ahead and build 5%-10% of your teams for each wave. It probably will not make a difference either way, but if something unforeseen pops up, you will have a tiny hedge in place. Again, you lose nothing by doing this as you’re simply organizing the players that you already like into those special wave weighted lineups.
The key stats for the week as presented by our friends at Fantasy Golf Metrics are as follows:
Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 25%
Birdie or Better %: 25%
Strokes Gained Putting: 20%
Scrambling: 10%
Prox 150-175: 10%
Driving Accuracy: 10%
Follow Us
