The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – Deutsche Bank Championship

Something is missing this week…it feels strange to be talking about the tournament out in Boston without being there this year. Last year, the industry was abuzz with excitement as some of the best fantasy golf owners in the world gathered together in Boston for the first ever Fantasy Golf World Championship, an amazing live final where owners were treated to a full on VIP experience over all four rounds at TPC Boston. This season, DraftKings made the mistake of trying to get cute with the FGWC and attempted to make it mirror the FedEx Cup Playoffs (it does not) and eliminated the live event. I have a strong feeling that it will be back next year due to popular demand so hopefully we will see it return as it proved to be an amazing experience even though the outcome for us ended up being rather tragic.

For those folks that are new to the Daily Spin, Jeff and I held two entries last year out of twenty-five and felt like we had an edge over the other competitors. After an up and down first two days, none of the twenty-five entries had managed to get six golfers through the cut. Our best team managed to get five strongly positioned golfers through the cut and we appeared to be on the path for a finish of either first or second place and a six figure payday. However, as we followed and cheered against Rory McIlroy on Sunday morning at the start of the third round, Jeff looked down at his phone, stopped in his tracks and said flatly, “We’re dead.” After watching him roll around on the ground following a Brooks Koepka double bogey the day prior, I knew that Jeff could be a bit melodramatic so I had some hope that he might be exaggerating. Unfortunately, the unexplainable occurred that morning as Paul Casey, after making the cut, withdrew from the event with a sore back, a move that happens maybe once or twice a year for a player that makes the cut.

We went on to take 6th place, needing only around 25-30 points for second place and around 40 points for a win. To this day, Jeff refuses to use Paul Casey in his lineups and about once or twice a year, you can watch me scream into the camera on our webcast that Casey owes us $80,000 (or $180,000 if I am really playing it up). It could not have been a more frustrating ending for Team FGI after a really amazing year of building up our bankrolls, and those of our members, at a furious clip. However, from being a part of the event, we were able to connect with a lot of great folks within the industry and the experience overall was amazing. Roger Casey (former staff writer) will never forget the bill that I ran up when we he paid off ‘the Jason Bohn bet’ and I ate crab legs at a fancy restaurant until my stomach hurt. I take vengeance on those that lose dinner bets against me so beware if any of you choose to venture down that path in the future. Roger did not learn his lesson last year and now I have absolutely no reason to show mercy as he knew the potential consequences of entering into another dinner bet when he foolishly cast his fate with Freddie Jacobson over the course of the last five months. I will be sure to tweet out the damage once I find a night to get down to Murray’s to enjoy my favorite cut of steak.

Enough with the introductions tonight, let’s get down to business. Stat guy, Erik felt like I wrote one of my best columns of the year last week after taking down a Red Bull so tonight I drank two with the hopes that I can find the same magic as a week ago. The Barclays was an amazing success for us last week. We grind along for weeks at a time, slowly building our bankrolls and fighting through the chaos of the most volatile fantasy sport while we wait for weeks like last week. The optimal lineups won a clean sweep in cash games and my GPP player pool helped me to triple my money from what I entered. In the $3 GPP, I cashed in 84/104 lineups and we heard from dozens of folks with even bigger wins so I am hoping we can keep the momentum going this week as we enter our last event of the season with a cut before the field is reduced to 70 golfers for the following tournament.

For those of you still alive in the FGWC this week, the strategy for the week will not change all that dramatically. There are 99 golfers in the field this week and the cut rules are the same as most weeks with the Top-70, plus ties making it through to the final two rounds. What this means for owners is that only about 20-25 players will miss the cut this week meaning that for most cash games, unless there are a lot of surprising names that miss the cut, it will take a 6/6 lineup to be in good shape to win by the end of the tournament. The field is also strong enough so that there are still some very reasonable players in the lower salary tiers so you should not feel too stressed out if you want to start your lineups with one or two of the best players in the field.

Again, game selection is something that should remain an important part of your crosscheck from week to week. I brought it up in my column a week ago and wanted to revisit it here to give you an idea of how large changes in field size can impact your ability to win in cash games. To provide an example, I played in both the $5 and $25 double up contest last week with the same three lineups. We were fortunate in that all three cashed across the board, regardless of the contests that I entered, but I wanted to see which contests proved to be easier to get into the green on for the week. Many people wrongly assume that with higher buy-ins that there will be more sharks involved and thus a higher threshold to get into the money. In certain weeks, it can happen as much of the research that the professionals use tends to be very similar among all players so that when the chalk plays hold up, those players with their additional entries do tend to benefit. However, when the consensus picks go sideways, which as we know happens more often than not with DFS golf, the average player is now in a good position to take advantage in cash games. For the $5 double up event last week, there were 3448 entries and the number of points needed to win ended up being 350.5. For the $25 double up, there were 919 entries and it took only 340.5 points to fully double through for the week. Do you really believe that the players in the $5 event were better than the players in the $25 event? Of course not. The professionals tend to play more entries at smaller buy-ins anyway so I would guess the strength of player ends up being roughly the same. The key difference here and in most weeks is sample size. As you get into events with thousands of entries, the law of large numbers does start to catch up and the average score to cash, for the most part is going to be higher.

TPC Boston is a great course that has hosted the DB Championship going back to 2003 when Adam Scott won with an impressive score of -20. Since that point, there has been a whole range of different types of players that have been able to win the title. The common thread among nearly all winners is that they possess a very strong tee to green game and in particular, the strokes gained approach category. The course is a Par 71, 7,300 yard course with three Par 5 holes, two of which should offer very good scoring opportunities for all players and one that at 600 yards will still offer opportunities for the bigger hitters. The Par 3 holes are mostly around 200-225 yards except for the shorter #16 where Henrik Stenson put his tee shot into the water in the final round opening the door for a Rickie Folwer comeback win. Those that handle the longer Par 4’s from 450-500 yards will fare well as there are six holes that fall within that range. It is not a scorers course by any stretch, but it is certainly not going to play like the US Open either. The fairways are wide enough to be accommodating, but there are a lot of trees that line them so if by chance a player gets off the short grass, he could be forced to bail out from time to time. Last season, this event offered a lot more carnage than I would have figured given such a small field. A number of quality, higher owned players missed the cut so do not get complacent when building your rosters. The key stats for the week are as follows from our friends at Fantasy Golf Metrics:

Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 20%
Birdie or Better %: 20%
Strokes Gained Putting: 25%
Strokes Gained Approach: 20%
Par 5 Scoring: 15%

The last thing to mention this week is that the Main Event is taking place on DraftKings this week. The entry fee is $1500 with a first place prize of $100,000 with a field of only 370 entries. Good luck to those that qualified and to those that enter straight up. If you are interested in talking strategy with me, please send me an e-mail in the next day or two and I will be happy to go over your lineups with you. In a field of that size and give the owners involved that I am very familiar with, I can offer some very specific strategy tips to help you navigate your way through the mess. With a field that small, there are real strategy considerations to think about beyond just picking the perfect six golfers for your team.

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The key to the week for cash games is to avoid getting flashy. I do get a little nervous owning too many heavily concentrated players this week so there are only a couple that will overlap even though the threat of players missing the cut is lower than normal. The flip side to that is that when one of your players does miss the cut, it will devastate your roster in a much worse manner than throughout the rest of the season in larger fields. There are enough savvy veterans with a lot of course experience here so that you do not need to overthink things this week. Stick to what has been working for us over the last few weeks. I did pay up slightly in one lineup to own Adam Scott and grabbed Jason Day at the top for another team. However, I did not think that this maneuver forced me into too risky of a situation give that there are many talented players in the low 6k range and even down to $5,500 where you can get cut maker extraordinaire, Hudson Swafford. Jason Dufner, Matt Kuchar and Zach Johnson were the three golfers that I used twice and all three have been making cuts consistently while also handling this course very well over the last 13 years.

Optimal Lineups

Jason Dufner – $7,800
Matt Kuchar – $8,400
Phil Mickelson – $9,300
Adam Scott – $10,400
Webb Simpson – $6,100
Gary Woodland – $7,700

Jim Furyk – $8,800
Sergio Garcia – $9,500
Emiliano Grillo – $9,000
Charley Hoffman – $7,300
Zach Johnson – $8,000
Kevin Kisner – $7,400

Jason Day – $12,500
Jason Dufner – $7,800
Harris English – $6,600
Zach Johnson – $8,000
Matt Kuchar – $8,400
Brendan Steele – $6,600

Player Pool

CORE

Jason Day – 60% ($12,500)
Adam Scott – 55% ($10,400)
Webb Simpson – 47% ($6,100)
Brendan Steele – 45% ($6,600)
Sergio Garcia – 40% ($9,500)

I just cannot quit Jason Day this week. We rode him last week and he did well for us with a 4th place finish. When it comes to taking the most expensive players each week, all we can hope for is that they are in contention in the final round. Of course, we would always love for them to win, but I want to know that for certain at a minimum that they will contend and we know that Day will do just that. In the model this week, he is the highest ranked player in the field and the distance to #2 is not close. He has made the cut in all eight starts here with four Top-20 finishes. If he can avoid getting too wild off the tee, he can threaten for a win.

Adam Scott missed just about every putt he lined up for last week and still managed a 4th place finish. Scott is one of the best from tee to green and even if his putter is struggling he can still contend this week. Scott ranks 1st in Strokes Gained Tee to Green and 1st in Strokes Gained Approach. His iron play from beyond 175 yards has been better than anyone on tour this season and he ranks 12th in Par 5 scoring. Scott cooled off after back to back wins early in the season, but looks to be peaking just in time to make a run in the playoffs.

The only way we get to own the most expensive players at the top is to then find a couple of hidden gems in the lower ranks to purchase in large quantities. Fortunately for us, we get to pick to strong players in Webb Simpson and Brendan Steele. Webb is another tee to green specialist who ranks 6th on tour in Strokes Gained Approach. His putting issues, like those for Adam Scott revolve around the shift to the upright putter and away from the anchor, but he has been able to improve his issues since changing his grip a few months ago. Webb has made five straight cuts at TPC Boston and actually won the event back in 2011. At $6,100 he seems a bit underpriced and will not need to do much beyond making the cut to justify his spot here.

If you can get beyond the fact that Brendan Steele is going to have a few head scratching missed cuts throughout the season, you can often pick up a very talented player a pretty nice discount. For a player with eleven Top-25 finishes in twenty-three starts this year, a $6,600 price tag this week is pretty attractive. Steeles hits it well off the tee, has solid approach play and ranks 8th in Par 5 scoring. He has not missed a cut in four starts in Boston and like many of the others, simply needs to avoid a meltdown with his putter this weekend in order to do well.

Sergio Garcia played a very quiet and leisurely schedule this season, taking a lot more time off than normal and to his credit, it seems to have paid off as he has recorded eight Top-10 finishes in sixteen starts including a win at the Byron Nelson. Sergio is excellent off the tee and in his approach game and though his putter can be streaky, he scores well on Par 5’s and puts up plenty of birdies. He has never missed a cut in Boston and has a couple of Top-10 finishes and he seems to be in a good place overall this year. I am not sure that he can win, but I know he is capable of a Top-5 finish this week.

SECONDARY

Jason Dufner – 38% ($7,800) – 6/6 making the cut here w four Top-20 finishes, missed only 3 cuts in 24 starts this season, excellent approach game, good on Par 5’s
Zach Johnson – 34% ($8,000) – 9/10 here with 5 Top-25 finishes, 18/21 on the season, good all around play w strong iron play and can score on Par 5’s even for a short hitter
Henrik Stenson – 29% ($10,700) – 4/4 here w a win and a 2nd place finish in the last three years, WD does not worry me as I have heard that his injury was very minor
John Senden – 26% ($7,200) – 11/11 here w 6 Top-25 finishes, purely a course horse play here, nothing really special in his game, he has just always played well here
Gary Woodland – 23% ($7,700) – 4/4 here w two Top-25 finishes, 4th place a week ago, 11 Top-25 finishes this year, 5th in Par 5 scoring
Charley Hoffman – 21% ($7,300) – made the cut in 7 of past 8 starts here, 3rd last year, champion in 2010, good in his approach and long iron play
Kevin Kisner – 19% ($7,400) – 1/1 here, 12th last year, 18/23 on the season w a win and six Top-10 finishes, excellent putter, handles Par 4’s well
Hudson Swafford – 17% ($5,500) – 1/1 here, 33rd last year, made his last 11 cuts, bargain price for an excellent long iron player that can score on Par 5’s
Kevin Chappell – 16% ($7,100) – 3/4 here with two Top-25’s in the last three years, excellent in strokes gained approach, volatile, but with upside potential

TERTIARY

Ryan Palmer – 15% ($6,700) 7/10 here, 3 Top-20 finishes, 18/21 on the season, big hitter off the tee, good mid range iron player, 5th in Par 5 scoring
Patrick Reed – 15% ($10,200) – 2/3 here, 4th last year, coming off of a win last week and 7 straight Top-25’s, 12th in Par 5 scoring
Phil Mickelson – 13% ($9,300) – 8/9 here w a win in 2007, 6 Top-10 finishes this season, great around the greens, 12th in Par 5 scoring and 7th in BoB%
Matt Kuchar – 11% ($8,400) – 10/11 here w six Top-25 finishes, great balance to his game in most aspects, will be heavily owned, but still safe
Steve Stricker – 10% ($7,000) – 8 straight cuts here w a win and 5 Top-10 finishes, short accurate player that does not make a lot of mistakes
Russell Knox – 9% ($7,500) – 2/2 here, both finishes in the Top-26, 21/26 this year w two wins and six Top-10 finishes, good tee to green player
Luke Donald – 8% ($6,100) – 8/8 here w two Top-10 finishes, putter is not what it was, but still ranks 16th in Strokes Gained Approach
Harris English – 8% ($6,600) – 3/4 here, 12th last year, good putter, being used here as a cut maker w a small amount of upside potential
Bill Haas – 7% ($6,700) – 9/10 here w 5 Top-25 finishes, good price for a player w his experience and tee to green game
Daniel Summerhays – 7% ($6,000) – 4/4 here, 9th a year ago, missed 3 of last five cuts after a great run this summer, excellent putter and good on Par 5’s
Marc Leishman – 6% ($5,800) – 6/7 here, way too cheap this week for a player with as well rounded of a game as Leishman,
Roberto Castro – 5% ($6,900) – 2/2 here, 19/24 on the season, solid approach game, excellent in Par 4 scoring and very good in Par 5 scoring
Tony Finau – 5% ($6,500) – 0/1 here, volatile player, but can score on the Par 5 holes and has a lot of upside for the price
Chris Kirk – 4% ($6,400) – 5/5 here w a win two years ago, rocky season, but does have Top-25 potential for his price
Brian Stuard – 4% ($5,600) – 2/2 here and has made four straight cuts, gives us some salary cap relief and he will be very low owned
Charl Schwartzel – 3% ($8,300) – 4/4 here, 17/18 on the season with 3 wins and six Top-10 finishes, 4th in Strokes Gained Approach, good long iron player

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