The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial

That is one hell of a title for this week. Hopefully, search engines around the globe pick up a key word or two to direct them to The Daily Spin. We were on fire last week and are still feeling the juices flowing through us as we sit down to knock out our weekly preview. Of 14 recommendations last week, 11 decided that they wanted to collect a paycheck which paid big dividends for followers and subscribers alike.

About the only way you missed out on the money train that was the Wells Fargo Championship would be if you overstocked your lineups with Jason Kokrak and Brandon de Jonge, two players in our sleeper category. Each has had a nice season and de Jonge in particular, has a really solid record…well, had a really solid record. Kokrak teased us in a particularly brutal manner by rallying back on Friday to get back to even par and right on the cut line before bogeying the last two holes to break our hearts along with about 40% of owners that rostered him last week in GPP play. Hopefully, you took a more balanced approach with our sleeper picks and mixed in some Pat Perez and Kevin Streelman. If you balanced your exposure, you probably were not hurt badly in cash games and more than likely had a team or two intact in your GPP contests.

This bring us to a great point that we want to discuss this week, which is lineup building for GPP play. Some clown from another ‘data based’ daily golf website actually ventured the opinion that there was no real difference in building a cash game lineup versus a GPP lineup. We could not disagree more vociferously. Fellow editor, Jeff Bergerson broke this down in his column, but we want to make our own point here at The Daily Spin. While Jeff focused on the types of players that work better for cash games than GPP and vice versa, we wanted to make a point on building GPP lineups that is so often overlooked week in and week out.

Each week as we sit down on Monday afternoon (my personal weekly Christmas morning) to look over the prices for the field, our eyes are immediately drawn to the mispricings. By mispricings, we mean those players who are so far off of the Vegas odds that they stand out to anyone with any semblance of a DFS Golf IQ. This week, John Peterson is going to be that player. Wow, look at that, I have even included this information inside the free content. Peterson is so grossly underpriced that he is clearly the most obvious cash game play of the week. There is a high degree of certainty that he will roll through the cut and onto the weekend. Do we care if other cash game players know this as well? Not in the least. Our goal is to get through half of the field and doing so will require getting as many players through the cut as possible. Do we care if we get 6 players through the cut and they all had 20% levels of ownership? Again, we shrug our shoulders. We are going to beat half of the field with ease. This was what Jeff covered earlier in his column.

The flip side of the equation is in how crowds will still flock to players that are obviously going to be highly owned in GPP formats. In this scenario, it actually can be a bit dangerous to chase the crowd. In instances where the crowd is correct, you’ve done nothing to separate yourself from the rest of the competitors. In a GPP, it is essential to have some differentiation within your lineups in order to gain an edge over competitors. This does not have to be your entire roster as chasing down many long shots is incredibly difficult to do successfully. However, considering that little edge is gained on the upside when these players make the cut, it often makes more sense to fade these sort of players at the GPP level. Peterson is a perfect example this week. If you own him, like everyone else, he won’t give you any separation in the standings. However, a player like Peterson rarely challenges for the Top 10. If Peterson has his usual 40th place finish, you are certainly happy that he made the cut, but it did not win the contest for you. On the other side of that coin, if Peterson misses the cut, then a huge portion of the field (including yourself) is wiped out of contention. Fading Peterson will really only hurt you when he makes a big run up the leaderboard, which in his case, given his lack of putting ability, is just not that likely.

Now, the argument can be made that getting a cheap player like Peterson through the cut will allow you to open up the rest of your lineup. This is true and given his price, is a reasonable argument. But in a GPP scenario, we favor taking a slightly higher risk given the fact that the larger payouts are concentrated at the top of the standings. When we enter a GPP, we are not simply looking to cash, we want to put ourselves into position to win. Let’s take advantage of the weeks when those highly owned players do poorly. It has happened over and over this season so many times that I do not even feel the need to give many examples. Last week, simply avoiding Adam Scott, Jason Kokrak and Brandon de Jonge would have been about all the strategy required to make a killing in GPP contests. Lineup selection is enormous when considering cash games versus GPP formats. It’s not that much different than playing cash games versus tournaments in poker, the style of play from one to the other is different and proper strategy dictates that. That said, we are not telling you to avoid Peterson in GPP formats. If you are going to play many lineups, it is reasonable to mix him in with the other sleeper selections this week. However, we simply wish to illustrate an area where playing the opposite of much of the field can lift your chances of winning dramatically.

Outside of de Jonge and Kokrak, our only other disappointment was Jim Furyk. Furyk has frustrated us at every turn this year. When he has entered tournaments where he has a great track record, he has struggled. In weeks where he garnered little buzz, he has been excellent. His putting is still concern, but we know what he is capable of and coming off of a 2nd place finish in the previous year, his missed cut came as a shock, particularly since he had played well in winning at Hilton Head and had a strong showing in match play leading up to the tournament.

The rest of the picks really sizzled, which felt great after a week of struggles at The Players Championship. Five picks made the Top 10 and a couple more made it into the Top 20. It was one of the first weeks where the stats and course history really lined up well and as a result, it made Sunday much more fun for us, even if Rory McIlroy ran away with the title. Incidentally, I mentioned that I would not roster Rory last week and I still stand by that. Even with a setting a course record on Saturday and breaking the course record for the entire tournament, McIlroy was still far from the most efficient player in terms of price versus points produced.

I want each of you to do a little exercise this week. When you look at a player to put on your roster, clip the last two zeroes off his price. Then, ask yourself, how strongly do I believe that this player can score 90-100% of that number? In a typical event, it is going to take around 500-550 points to win (maybe 600 if the course is easy). With your $50,000 to spend, you need to generate those points. That means you need to get 1-1.2 points per $100 spent or $1 per point if you simply clip off the last two zeroes. Yes, Rory scored the most points last week with 137. However, you needed to spend $14,000 to get those points. In our system, that comes out to 140/137 = $1.02/point Compare that to Webb Simpson at $8600 where we use the same formula of 86/107 = $0.80/point There are dozens of players who were more efficient than Rory last week so do not feel bad if you missed him. If you rostered him, it made it very difficult to choose five other players with him to get though the cut and you were left throwing darts at less predictable sleeper names.

This is the big reason that we here at The Daily Spin typically have little to no exposure to the top one or two players each week. Now, are Jordan Spieth and Zach Johnson solid plays for the week? Yes, we think given the research that it would work to have light exposure to them, but realize again that even with a very good tournament, they probably will not be the most efficient players on a dollar per point basis. When we use them in GPP play, we are looking for differentiation from the field. We are hoping that that big price keeps people away from Spieth. It will not be easy to build the rest of the team as regardless of what anyone thinks, it is tricky to pick a group of sleepers around Spieth and have confidence that all will make the cut and hopefully, one or two higher finishes for the week.

With that, let’s get to the course. Colonial takes place each year in Forth Worth, Texas. If you remember the last time we visited Texas, the weather was terrible. Get ready for more of the same this week as rain is in the forecast from now until…forever…or Tuesday at least. It appears that it will be universally bad the entire tournament, but we will be watching that intently to see if either morning or afternoon on Thursday will have any additional advantage for players. The course itself comes in at 7200 yards and plays as a Par 70. With only two Par 5 holes, and one being over 600 yards, we will not see many eagle opportunities this week. The course has a lot of fun twists and turns to it so many of the bigger hitters will elect to stay home as the mighty driver is not king this week. This will create the need for players to have a much more balanced game if they want to compete for a title this weekend. We looked a group of statistics this week in weighing out our potential picks: Par 4 Scoring, Driving Accuracy, Greens in Regulation, Scrambling and Strokes Gained Putting. Strokes gained tee to green was the tiebreaker for players that were close in consideration.

With that, let’s get to the picks this week. As always, we want to wish everyone the best of luck with their lineups. If you have ANY questions at all, please send us a note on Twitter or e-mail us directly. We respond to everyone as soon as possible and love the give and take when discussing strategy with our subscribers and followers…just ask Roger Casey and Trevor Sanso!!

BLUE CHIPS

Jordan Spieth – He threw down the gauntlet at The Masters and Rory McIlroy responded emphatically. Could this be our generation’s next great golf rivalry? We sure do hope so. Spieth is just average off the tee and does not rank that highly in GIR, but all other parts of his game are in great shape. Tee to green, putting, scrambling, Par 4 scoring and current form are all outstanding. Throw in a 14th place finish last year and a 7th place finish in 2013 and there is every reason to believe Spieth will be competing for another title. Limit your use to one or twp GPP rosters as his price will force you to guess on a few sleepers and it will not be easy to hit value at his price.

Zach Johnson – Outside of a mediocre finish here last year, Johnson has dominated Colonial with five Top 10 finishes in nine starts. He’s accurate (21st), okay in GIR (81st), average in scrambling (79th) and solid in Par 4 scoring (29th). His putting numbers have slipped this season, but his form is looking stellar at this point with four Top 20 finishes in his last five events. Johnson will have a tough time living up to his $12000 price tag, but does have the potential to win the event, especially facing a softer field.

Ryan Palmer – A key in choosing lineups is in finding a player or two with some local ties. Palmer is a member at Colonial so it does not get much more local than that. He is not very accurate of the tee, but familiarity with the course has helped him to perform well here over the years with a 5th, 14th and 5th place finish respectively, over the last three years. He is merely average in putting (84th), better in GIR (36th) and Par 4 scoring and his form has been good this season, save for a couple of recent struggles. He should be a staple in both cash games and GPP contests this week.

VALUE PICKS

Russell Knox – One of our tried and true picks week in and week out. With the pricing a little tilted towards the high end this week, Knox really stands out at $8200. His putting is not terribly impressive (91st), but he plays well in the other statistical categories where he ranks 24th in accuracy, 11th in GIR, and 10th in Par 4 scoring. He placed 21st here in his first appearance last year and he has the ability to go for the win in tournaments like this. Our weighting is heavy on Knox in both cash game and GPP contests this week.

Paul Casey – We erred a bit two weeks ago in our selection of Casey after he suffered a bout of food poisoning at the match play event that he was not able to recover from properly before The Players Championship, where he withdrew after the first day. Most novices are going to see WD and his terrible first round score and keep their distance. That works fine for us as this gives us a chance to be a buyer. His accuracy is manageable (97th) considering that he hits a lot of greens (15th). He ranks 29th in Par 4 scoring and if he can get his putter going, could be in position for yet another Top 10 finish where he has one in three starts here along with four on the season as a whole. Casey is a little risky in making the cut from week to week so we like this play more for GPP contests.

Brendon Todd – The secret has been out on Todd for the last month or so. Todd has become a very steady player on tour missing just two cuts in 13 starts this season with three Top 10 finishes. He was 5th at Colonial last year and looks to build on that this year. He excels in accuracy (14th), scrambling (5th) and putting (22nd). He is slightly above average in Par 4 scoring (58th) and 94th in GIR. Todd is one of the strongest value plays this week and should be in cash game and GPP lineups this week.

Ian Poulter – Poulter is playing really well overall this year. His style really works well for Colonial although he has not played here since 2010. He is accurate (54th), hits a lot of greens (27th), is 4th in Par 4 scoring and 39th in putting. Top it off with the fact that he has missed just one cut this year and you have all the makings for a big week for Poulter. Poulter works well in all formats this week.

Boo Weekley – The former champion is one of the few players in the $7000-8000 range that intrigued us this week. He does not do anything great, nor is he poor in any statistical category. His game is well rounded, which is exactly what we are looking for this week. He is a higher priced cut maker, but will sneak in a big finish from time to time as he has 4 to his credit this season. Weekley is primarily a GPP recommendation this week, but is not an unreasonable cash play as well.

Shawn Stefani – Along with Russell Knox, Stefani seems to find his way into our column nearly every week. As DraftKings has kept him in an affordable range, he seems to always fit well in our rosters. He just hammers out one Top 30 finish after another, which is precisely what we are paying for here. His skills are solid enough so that he is going to come through with a big finish at some point and there is a strong likelihood that he will be on our rosters when that happens. He’s a little spotty with his accuracy off the tee (105th), but makes up for it by hitting an above average amount of greens (35th). He’s 29th in Par 4 scoring and 52nd in putting. He took 42nd in his lone start here in 2013, but his game has only gotten better since then. Stefani works well for cash game and GPP lineups this week as he provides a nice price break in comparison with most other value plays. He is also from Texas and played his college golf at Lamar University.

We also own a little bit of Chris Kirk this week. His game seems to have turned the corner after a rough start and his recent history here is strong. The stars seem to be aligning for Kirk to have a big week, but due to inconsistency, we will not push all in on him.

SLEEPERS

This has been a tricky area the last few weeks for us. We are going to mix in a larger group this week and emphasize a little diversification. Sleepers are primarily GPP players. In constructing your GPP lineups, you’ll want to use a couple of core groups of top performers and then mix and match the sleepers in again and again so that you give yourself the most chances with the players you feel a strong conviction towards. If you overweight one or two of these players, you run the risk of losing the majority of your entries.

John Peterson – We have talked at length about Peterson this year. He is playing paycheck golf this season which is just fine for Daily Fantasy Golf players. Were it not for a poor putter (dare I say, subpar??), Peterson would be contending in nearly every event he enters. He is accurate, hits greens, scrambles well and kills Par 4 holes. He took 26th here last year and….he was born in Fort Worth. How his pricing came in at $6900 is baffling to say the least. He will make a few GPP teams, but primarily will be used in cash game lineups this week as we anticipate Peterson being the highest owned player in the field given his price and huge disparity in comparison to his odds.

Martin Laird – This was another pick where the pricing was a bit on the low side for a player who has played well this year and has had success at the course. Laird combats his lack of accuracy (131st) with precision in hitting greens (37th) and his scrambling ability (24th). He is one of the top Par 4 players (19th) and although not a great putter (115th), his tee to green game has been very good this year (23rd). He has not missed the cut here in four tries and had twice finished in the Top 10. Given his accuracy and putting issues, Laird is primarily a GPP play this week. Given his price, Laird will also have high ownership, but it should not approach Peterson levels.

Bo Van Pelt – 11/11 in making the cut…and we probably just put a hex on him. His numbers are fairly unpleasant to look at, but he hits greens reasonably well (66th) and putts okay (60th). This pick is purely about picking a guy that excels at a particular course. He has finished no lower than 31st in his last five starts here. Considering his track record here, you could even get away with using him in a cash game. He comes in having made four of the last five cuts including a Top 10 at Hilton Head. Typically, DraftKings grabs a course horse like this and slaps a big premium on him, but that has not happened this week. We are not excited about Van Pelt, but the numbers are just too overwhelming to ignore.

John Huh – Huh took 11th at Colonial in 2013 and 5th in 2012 before missing the cut last year. He’s accurate (15th), putts well (28th) and scrambles well (25th), which helps as he is not that great in GIR (155th). He plays the Par 4 holes well enough (81st) and should be more off the radar than the previous three picks, which makes him a tempting GPP option.

Freddie Jacobson – Usually, we shy away from this birdie averse player, but he is cheap enough this week at $6400 to be worth a pick as a cut maker. Freddie scrambles well and is an excellent putter once he finds the green. The rest of his game is pretty mediocre. His numbers tend to pick up quite a bit at shorter courses though so do not be totally deterred by the bare stats. IF you want to feel better about Freddie, look at how well he has played here in recent years. He finished 3rd last year and between 31st and 46th in his previous four appearances. We will accept a made cut from Freddie this week in our stars and scrubs lineup and move on.

Bryce Molder – Unlike some of the previous uglies we have discussed here, Molder actually fits the mold of a successful player at Colonial… He is accurate (57th), a great putter (5th), scrambles well (28th), and even plays the Par 4 holes well (29th). Yes, he is terrible tee to green (138th), but with the shorter course, we’re going to let it pass. At his price of $6000, we think he is a great sleeper that opens up a lot of options when building the rest of your roster.

I’m also going to own a little bit of Zac Blair this week. He is a rookie here so without course history, he will probably be overlooked…and he has played terrible lately. However, this course fits his game nicely as the diminutive Mr. Blair won’t have to worry as much about his lack of length off the tee. He’s 4th in accuracy, 8th in scrambling and 4th in putting. He plays the Par 4 holes well (58th) and is about average in GIR (100th). He’s out of form and no history here so he should be lightly owned.

Are we done already? That was a lot of fun. Thanks for reading and hopefully you are able to take this and build some winners for the week. We have been so close to hitting some huge prizes over the last couple of weeks and I cannot help, but to think that this is going to be another great week for us. Keep us posted on your results and hit us up with lineup questions all day today leading up to tee time Thursday morning.

Good Luck!!

Myzeriouzly