The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – CIMB Classic

The PGA swing season is off and running and we are off to a fantastic start after riding Brendan Steele’s come from behind win last Sunday to a very profitable day that saw two of three optimal lineups win in cash games and many of you with teams that crushed it in GPP events. The weather was a little tricky and a late cut line move kept it from being a dream week in terms of potential winnings, but considering all of the new faces and time off between events for most players, it was a very satisfying week. The key to our success in these early fall events remains the same year after year; do not take stupid, unnecessary risks and wade into the new player pool deliberately, gaining some exposure to the young players, but watching closely to see which ones will perform and which ones struggle under the pressure of playing for a much bigger paycheck.

Be sure to keep an eye on the Sanderson Farms Championship this week. Although DraftKings, in its infinite wisdom has chosen not to run any contests for this event, it is another good event to track to see how the newer players on tour perform. I am not quite sure what DraftKings is doing this week in slicing our contests again. When we inquired about it, we received a similar response to last year in that the start times throw people off. Hopefully, by this point, you have realized that lineup lock is at 7:45 pm EST on Wednesday night. Considering the many e-mails and tweets I received today, my guess is that a lot of you were scrambling to build your lineups last night. Fear not, you still have all day to look them over, but unfortunately, with DraftKings chopping the contests down so much, most of the reasonably sized ones will be full early in the day so be sure to reserve your spots now.

This brings up a really key point in your process. So often each week, I get tweets and e-mails asking for when the lineups are going to be out for PGA, NFL or MMA. My response is always the same: Reserve your entries in the contests that you want to play as soon as they are posted. Just throw in some placeholder lineups and then go about your research. You would not really want to put in full lineups right after the contests are posted. It does not give you enough time to dig into the weather, tee times, or any other updates that appear in the days leading up to the event. My column is always going to be posted on Wednesday morning each week once I have had a chance to fully digest the field, course and salaries. The time between when prices come out and when most folks post their columns is so short sometimes that it really does not allow for much more than a first impression. As you develop into a sharper player, reserving your entries and filing out your lineups closer to lock time will become second nature.

This week, the tour shifts to the other side of the world for a couple of events. First up is the CIMB Classic, played in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia each fall. The twelve hour time difference means that if you are a late night owl like myself, you’ll be up each night taking in as much of the event as will be televised over the next few days. Next week, the tour makes a stop in China for the first WGC event of the season. Both events are no cut tournaments which means that things are going to work a little differently in terms of strategy.

We’ve discussed proper strategy for events without cuts before, but to rehash a bit, your overall edge is smaller than normal this week. With a field of only 78 players and smaller contests in general, we run into a few issues. First, there are less owners out there playing this week, but those who do play every week are still going to be in the mix, meaning that it is a more competitive group of fantasy owners overall. Next, with a smaller field, it becomes much tougher to find sleepers in the field, and ownership percentages will generally be higher on average for the players in the field. Given that there is no cut, owners are not penalized nearly as much for the poor performance of underperforming players that they select so the edge over the average player shrinks.

Another issue to consider this week is that Kuala Lumpur Golf & Country Club is one of the easiest courses that we will see all year on tour and the winning score will be somewhere in the low -20’s range. The course plays as a Par 72, and is 6,951 yards long, incredibly short for a Par 72 which actually takes a little bit of the edge away from some of the longer hitters which is reflected in the results over the past three years (the event has been held here only since 2013). Without a cut to worry about, the players really need to focus on scoring this week. Obviously, those players with the best tee to green games tend to play really well here along with those that can post a lot of birdies or eagles. Putting well will help, but most of the players that have excelled here in the last three years have been just average with the flat stick with Ryan Moore and Kevin Na being the obvious exceptions. Hideki Matsuyama, Adam Scott, Justin Thomas, Brendan Steele, Tony Finau, Gary Woodland and Charles Howell III were among some of the more well known players to make the Top-10 last year. All of those players have excellent tee to green games with a suspect putter so worry less about precision and focus in on golfers that generate scoring opportunities. Players who handle the middle and long iron approach shots should be in good shape.

Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 30%
Birdie or Better Percentage: 25%
Strokes Gained Putting: 20%
Strokes Gained Approach: 10%
Par 5 Scoring: 10%
Proximity: 5%

With all of the conditions that we have discussed above, it should be clear that this is a good week to pull back on your bankroll exposure. I will personally only be putting half of what I normally have in play for the contests available. I think that the lineups that I have are good enough to do well in cash, but the difference between a cash lineup and a GPP lineup is marginal at best this week. My hope is to keep our run of good fortune going in cash and refocus more on GPP events when the contests get back to normal size again.

For GPP events this week, realize that the 60-75% aggregate ownership target that we discussed in last week’s column will need to shift up this week with the smaller field and more concentrated ownership overall of all players. While there is limited data for events like this, a small shift towards 75-90% is appropriate although if a real chalky player ends up with the win, it could climb higher. The main strategy of most players will be star and scrubs, I anticipate high levels of ownership of most of the more expensive players followed by very high levels of ownership for a select handful of players in the lower 6k region. With less risk of a very low score at the bottom, it makes a lot more sense to take some chances in all formats with the hopes of having the extra stars on your roster finish a little higher to earn some additional position points.

Finally, before I get to the recommendations for the week, I wanted to reach out to see if anybody would be interested in getting together for an FGI trip in January. Jeff and I floated the idea this past summer of doing an FGI trip to an event. We discussed it last night and thought that Torrey Pines for The Farmers at the end of January might be a fun event to try it out. We’re looking into prices to see what types of packages we could put together, but we would like to get an actual interest count as well. If we can’t get at least 8-10 folks, we probably will shelve the idea, but I know that a few people expressed interest before so now we would actually like to make it happen. Jeff and I would both be along and provide some coaching and training to go along with the event and be available for some one on one consults to help you in planning out your 2017 season. It should be a lot of fun. In the meantime, just shoot us an email if you are interested and if the numbers look good, more details will follow.

[cointent_lockedcontent view_type=”condensed buyButtonOff”]
The optimal lineups this week are a little different than last in terms of composition. Where last week, we were very careful in looking towards the bottom range of players, this week we can freely take some chances without worrying as much about losing players. With plenty of value in the middle and lower ranges it was easy to stack rosters at the top and sacrifice very little at the bottom. For the optimals, we did not go all the way up to the top of the salary range as it just was not necessary. The players that we were able to get on our rosters from around $10k and below are just as strong as those at the very top. If you have a strong feeling this week about a specific player, there is no issue in going in 100% for your cash game lineups. Obviously, there are the occasional first day withdrawals which are an absolute nightmare at events like this (Danny Lee a year ago), they are infrequent enough so that it is not something to be overly cautious about.

Adam Scott – $10,900
Kevin Na – $9,900
Russell Knox – $8,200
Jhonattan Vegas – $7,500
Charles Howell III – $7,000
Hudson Swafford – $6,500

Kevin Na – $9,900
Brendan Steele – $8,800
Daniel Berger – $8,500
Russell Knox – $8,200
Si Woo Kim – $7,900
Danny Lee – $6,700

Ryan Moore – $10,600
Rafa Cabrera Bello – $9,200
Emiliano Grillo – $8,600
Brendan Steele – $8,800
Hudson Swafford – $6,500
Chez Reavie – $6,300

CORE

Russell Knox – $8,200 – 60%
Kevin Na – $9,900 – 50%
Chez Reavie – $6,300 – 40%
Tony Finau – $8,100 – 35%

Russell Knox should have a solid week. He is a shorter hitter, but very accurate and hits a lot of greens. On a shorter Par 72 course, he is going to have a lot of opportunities to score as well as on some of the shorter Par 4 holes as he is excellent in terms of proximity. After notching two wins last season, Knox is primed to keep the momentum going this fall. He finished in 21st here a year ago and I see him improving on that this week.

Kevin Na finished 3rd here a year ago and 2nd in 2014. Like Knox, he is a shorter hitter, but also very accurate and with the benefit of being a much better putter. Na tends to be at his best in the fall events and started off the season on the right foot with a 7th place finish a week ago at the Safeway Open. This course sets up perfectly for players like Na, Knox and Ryan Moore and his price makes him easy to overweight this week.

Chez Reavie is the first of a few cheap players that we are going to weight heavily this week. Reavie really stepped up his tee to green game last season and is particularly strong in terms of accuracy and approach play, two very important variables this week. Reavie is very strong with his mid range iron play and this should give him plenty of opportunities to score some birdies. He is our Russell Knox Lite player in the lower salary tier and should easily outperform his low price.

Tony Finau still remains very affordable this week after a solid 26th place finish last weekend. This is a great course for Finau as he will be lining up for birdie and eagle putts throughout the weekend. He did well here last year when he finished 9th so he is very comfortable with the setup. With his ability to score on the Par 5 holes this week, Finau should be able to post a great DK score, even if he does not manage to finish near the top of the leaderboard.

SECONDARY

Adam Scott – $10,900 – 30% – elite tee to green player who finished the FedEx Cup playoffs w four Top-10 finishes
Ryan Moore – $10,600 – 30% – won this event in back to back years, very strong finish to the end of last season
Brendan Steele – $8,800 – 30% – finished 3rd here in 2015, won last week, excellent tee to green and Par 5 player
Emiliano Grillo – $8,600 – 30% – excellent ball striker, very good mid and long iron player, posts a lot of birdies
Anirban Lahiri – $8,300 – 30% – Won the Malaysian Open here a year ago, lots of experience on this course
Danny Lee – $6,700 – 30% – not playing his best golf, but his iron play should allow him to hang around
Hudson Swafford – $6,500 – 30% – one of the better long iron players on tour, solid putter, makes a lot of birdies
Daniel Berger – $8,500 – 25% – had his first win last season, strong from tee to green, good putter
Jhonattan Vegas – $7,500 – 25% – MC last week, but much improved last season, big hitter who can score on Par 5’s
Charles Howell III – $7,000 – 25% – very good tee to green game, below average putter, streaky, but has two Top-10s here

TERTIARY

Justin Thomas – $10,400 – 20% – defending champion here, finding his form over the last couple of months
Rafael Cabrera-Bello – $9,200 – 20% – strong tee to green and very good putter, mixed results at this course
Branden Grace – $8,400 – 20% – coming in out of form, but the shorter course should allow for his game to shine
Si Woo Kim – $7,900 – 20% – finished the season on a tear with a win and a bunch of Top-25’s, will have a big season
Jamie Lovemark – $7,400 – 20% – big hitter that can score on Par 5’s, form is a little off, but has upside in no cut event
Ryo Ishikawa – $7,500 – 15% – disappeared last year, but has been excellent w 4 straight Top-10 finishes and a win in Asia
Younghan Song – $7,300 – 15% – recently has 5 straight Top-10 finishes in Asia, played well in two DK events last season

Good Luck this week!

-Myzteriouzly

[/cointent_lockedcontent]