The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – CIMB Classic

While most people are a little annoyed at the start time for this week’s event, I have to say that I could not be more excited as the Asian events provide me with plenty of late night entertainment. It truly is a perfect way to end my Halloween night this Saturday after the little ones eat themselves into a sugar induced slumber rivaling my own Thanksgiving afternoon nap each year. The tradition has grown into taking my two kids out in my neighborhood before wandering over towards Jeff’s place and meeting up with his little ones. If you’ve never seen The League’s Halloween episode, you can picture Jeff and myself following along with a couple of cocktails to enjoy the night. It’s not going to be quite as much fun as the costume parties that most of you twenty somethings will attend with girls dressed as naughty schoolgirls, naughty flight attendants, naughty teachers, naughty administrative assistants, etc, but it’s a fun night and we’ll get to cap it off with the final round of action from the CIMB Classic so hopefully, we’ll be toasting a big victory with all of you as the night rolls into the early hours of Sunday morning.

I am not going to get too in depth on strategy this week as we have dealt with events like this before without a cut. I know that most of you are not exclusive to DFS Golf so what I want each of you to do today as you build your lineups is to take off your golf hat for a minute, and put on your NFL hat. With a no cut event, the differences between your cash game teams and your GPP teams are going to be less noticeable. There are only 78 players teeing off this week and a chunk of them are players that you probably have not heard of before from the European or Asian Tour. I’ll do my best to give you a short rundown on a couple of them as GPP plays for the week.

With a smaller field and no cut, keep your process simple. Find three or four core players to begin the majority of your lineups with. For your cash games, start with this core group and then fill the last slots with the two most solid players outside of that group that fit within the salary cap. Since there is no cut, there are a lot of points to be gained by finding players who place highly this week, but less of a penalty for having players that finish near the bottom of the scoreboard. For my cash teams, I started with 4 players between the mid 8k to mid 9k range and used the best of the value or sleeper players to fill in the rest. For GPP teams, simply rotate out the bottom two salaried players and mix and match others into the mix. If you are building 10 or more teams, start rotating out one or two blue chip players as you progress with each lineup and find players of a similar price range, but also players who may potentially be overlooked by the masses. So, much like football, use your best lineup for your cash game team (and throw it into GPPs as well) and then work around a couple of core groupings to build the rest.

My advice for you this week is to tighten up the purse strings a bit. We had a great week last week and made a killing on most of our cash games and many of you used three of my recommendations (Kaufman, Kizzire and Bohn) to start a number of GPP teams and really killed it. So even with a lot of solid players missing the cut, the guys that we were on played so well that they carried us to the money. It took a late Nick Watney eagle to push two of my cash game teams into the money, but I will take it and move on to the next week. However, this event poses some challenges that are worth noting before you go and press your luck with this event.

First, there is a smaller field without a cut. Events like these tend to produce a huge amount of clustering over certain players. When Tony Finau is owned by 60% of cash game teams this week, and several others well above 20% or even 30%, your cash game lineups will have very little differentiation against other opponents. Also, since there is no cut, there is less of a penalty to folks for making oddball decisions and throwing in long shots to their cash game lineups. In weeks like this, a move like that may even have some value if it allows teams to load up their rosters at the top of the salary range, thus offsetting a substandard performance by a lower salaried player. You still have an edge this week, it is just going to be a little smaller.

Next, the real bad news for the week is that the weather in Kuala Lumpur this week looks atrocious. Rain and thunderstorms are in the forecast each day and with all tee times going off within two hours, there is not much room to maneuver around the weather, although I will say that if you can make a team or two of guys who tee off immediately to start the tournament, they may have a little advantage and may be able to sneak their rounds through without getting rained on. Honestly, it is going to be interesting to see how they get the whole event in with everything we are looking at with regards to the weather.

Finally, this is a shortened travel week for a lot of the players coming over from the U.S. These guys are losing a day on the trip over and it is going to be a real challenge for their bodies to adjust that quickly. While this is not always much of a factor, when combined with the other tow issues, it just does not seem all that smart to dive in too heavily this week with your hard earned bankroll. There are too many variables in play that we need to take into account that will making our predictions that much more of a challenge.

Now, onto the course itself. This will mark the third year that the CIMB Classic is played on the West Course of the Kuala Lumpur Golf and Country Club. The Par 72, 6985 yard course is one of the shortest courses on tour this season and will produce plenty of scoring opportunities for most of field beyond those bombers that tend to be the usual suspects for events with a lot of scoring. In fact, Ryan Moore has been victorious BOTH years that the event has been played here so clearly there skills beyond distance to keep in mind this week. Another interesting note is that the Malaysian Open on the European Tour has been held on this course for the last seven years so that when you are scratching your head thinking, who is Scott Hend and why is he priced at $7700, you will know where to look to figure out the answer.

The stats that I am going to look at this week:

Birdie or Better Percentage
Strokes Gained Tee to Green
Strokes Gained Putting
Par 4 & 5 Scoring
Scrambling

Obviously, course form and current form will play into the mix as well. we want players that are trending upward coming into the event so I always place a little extra value in current form, particularly as we reevaluate the stats and weightings in the early part of the season.

Good luck to all this week and please keep in touch on Twitter with updates on your teams. Also, if any of you would like to nominate a ‘Shot of the Week’, let us know as we get a kick out of seeing the types of shenanigans that these guys get themselves into on the course.

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BLUE CHIPS

KEVIN NA ($10,800) – Mr. Second Place returns this week after another week of missing an opportunity to win an event. Funny, Na tied for second place at this event last year as well so there is a bit of a pattern in play here. Yes, Na does have a tendency to engage the choke switch in final round, but for fantasy purposes, he delivers much more consistently than most. His solid tee to green game and usually reliable putter should keep him in contention this week.

Birdie or Better %- 29th
Strokes Gained Putting- 49th
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 2nd
Par 4 Scoring- 26th
Par 5 Scoring- 61st
Scrambling- 19th

Ryan Moore ($9,900) – He won this event the last two years. His numbers have not been special as of late, but I say again, he has won this event the last two years so he gets the benefit of the doubt. He took 43rd at The Shriners and 10th at the Frys.com so his form is not bad right now.

Birdie or Better %- 36th
Strokes Gained Putting- 28th
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 62nd
Par 4 Scoring- 16th
Par 5 Scoring- 98th
Scrambling- 59th

Justin Thomas ($9,600) – I love when we get the opportunity to use a player like Thomas in a no cut event. It takes the pressure off of him in the early rounds and allows him to go out and play his game without having to worry about the action on Friday. Thomas is a rookie here, but his tee to green game will help him. He is also coming off of a third place finish at The Frys and did not play last week so I anticipate that he will enter the event well rested.

Birdie or Better %- 10th
Strokes Gained Putting- 32nd
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 10th
Par 4 Scoring- 7th
Par 5 Scoring- 27th
Scrambling- 12th

Paul Casey ($9500) – An old FGI favorite makes his debut in Kuala Lumpur this week. Outside of the Deutshe Bank where he ripped our hearts out with a third round WD, he has played excellent over the last couple of months highlighted by a 5th place finish at The Tour Championship. His putter can be streaky, but he is a good enough tee to green player so that any deficiencies should be offset to some extent.

Birdie or Better %- 31st
Strokes Gained Putting- 104th
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 10th
Par 4 Scoring- 10th
Par 5 Scoring- 13th
Scrambling- 150th

Danny Lee ($9,100) – One of my favorite plays this week is Danny Lee. He struggled a bit with the longer challenging courses, but ate up the others and posted eight Top 10 finishes including a win. He’s a tremendous iron player whose tee to green game steadily improved throughout the season. His putter is a strength and he is capable of going on a numerous scoring streaks at a course like this. He will be in the majority of my lineups this week.

Birdie or Better %- 19th
Strokes Gained Putting- 23rd
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 59th
Par 4 Scoring- 26th
Par 5 Scoring- 115th
Scrambling- 52nd

VALUE PLAYS

Daniel Berger ($8,600) – A no cut event certainly makes it easy to add Berger to our rosters this week. With four full rounds to score, Berger should have plenty of opportunities to make value this week in his first event in Kuala Lumpur. He followed up his solid playoff run with a 17th place finish at The Frys two weeks ago so he comes into this week rested and prepared to keep the momentum going.

Birdie or Better %- 36th
Strokes Gained Putting- 142nd
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 33rd
Par 4 Scoring- 50th
Par 5 Scoring- 13th
Scrambling- 59th

Tony Finau ($8,500) – Tony Finau is the perfect reason for why we need to analyze beyond where Vegas thinks a player will finish on the leaderboard. Finau is the sort of player that can finish 20 places higher in DraftKings points than where he actually placed in the event. With an albatross and a couple of eagles last week, Finau overcame several stretches of mediocre play where he needed to birdie the last hole of the second round just to make the cut. However, at his price this week, in a no cut event, Finau seems like an automatic play in most formats.

Birdie or Better %- 8th
Strokes Gained Putting- 109th
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 36th
Par 4 Scoring- 26th
Par 5 Scoring- 40th
Scrambling- 149th

Robert Streb ($8,200) – Streb was a huge disappointment to start the season at The Frys which makes him a great buy low candidate this week. Solid through much of last season, Streb should have a bounceback effort this week. Streb is very good from tee to green and with his putter so he is capable of a Top 10 finish this week at a below average price. With the memory of him ruining a lot of teams still fresh in minds of fantasy owners, it is important to shake off the recency bias and look at Streb’s numbers this week.

Birdie or Better %- 22nd
Strokes Gained Putting- 24th
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 27th
Par 4 Scoring- 18th
Par 5 Scoring- 61st
Scrambling- 79th

Nick Watney ($7,900) – I wrote him up last week and he played great golf for us. It feels like his game is trending in the right direction and his price dropped by $700 this week after an 11th place finish. Watney played here once two years ago and finished 35th. However, his recent form is really what caught my eye this week. Over the last twelve weeks, Watney ranks 6th in strokes gained tee to green, 12th in Par 4 Scoring, 10th in Par 5 Scoring and 20th in BoB % versus the rest of this week’s field. I’ve used his stats for the first two events this year to demonstrate where his game has been trending.

Birdie or Better %- 63rd
Strokes Gained Putting- 75th
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 37th
Par 4 Scoring- 74th
Par 5 Scoring- 17th
Scrambling- 129th

Daniel Summerhays ($7,800) – Summerhays placed 53rd in his lone appearance at this course two years ago, but he is in the midst of a nice run right now that has seem his play some very consistent golf over the last couple of months. He’s been able to parlay his top notch putting skills into several nice finishes and though his tee to green game usually is a problem, there has been an uptick of late in all phases of his game. The stats from last season are not indicative of how Summerhays is playing right now so I used his current 2016 season stats to give you a better idea of how he is playing.

Birdie or Better %- 36th
Strokes Gained Putting- 63rd
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 32nd
Par 4 Scoring- 11th
Par 5 Scoring- 98th
Scrambling- 66th

Kevin Chappell ($7,300) – One week, Chappell might be the highest owned player in the field and the next week, nobody wants to touch him. Consistency was not a big part of Chappell’s game last season and he frustrated owners with great showings followed up by missed cuts. He is off to a sluggish start this fall, missing the cut two weeks ago at The Frys and finishing a lowly 62nd last week at The Shriners. He has a chance to turn things around at a course where he has enjoyed previous success as he finished 13th here last year and 25th the year prior. His tee to green game was a mess last season, but some of that can be blamed on an injury that wrecked much of the early part of his season. This season, through two events, his putter has been awful, but I think he fixes that this week. Chappell is a nice GPP play at his price.

Birdie or Better %- 48th
Strokes Gained Putting- 61st
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 85th
Par 4 Scoring- 50th
Par 5 Scoring- 48th
Scrambling- 87th

SLEEPERS

Spencer Levin ($6,900) – We used him on several rosters last week at The Shriners and he rewarded us with a 25th place finish. It marked Levin’s fifth straight made cut and outperformance of his salary. He is no statistical monster, but he has limited his mistakes and in this price range, he does not need to do a lot to earn his keep. This will be Levin’s first start in Malaysia.

Birdie or Better %- 36th
Strokes Gained Putting- 92nd
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 31st
Par 4 Scoring- 91st
Par 5 Scoring- 27th
Scrambling- 56th

Hudson Swafford ($6,800) – Raise your hand if you are tired of seeing Hudson Swafford mentioned in my column? Yes, my hand is right up there with you. He’s been incredibly frustrating to deal with as we’ve owned him for a couple of fun Friday fade jobs, last week being the most recent. I am willing to roll with him again due to the fact that this is a no cut event and his potential to score is pretty high on this course. He has some length off the tee and a great putter so he is going to have one or two very good rounds this weekend which should offset the one where he blows up and loses a few strokes. The stats below are from 2016.

Birdie or Better %- 48th
Strokes Gained Putting- 9th
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 107th
Par 4 Scoring- 54th
Par 5 Scoring- 63rd
Scrambling- 72nd

Carlos Ortiz ($6,800) – Ortiz was sort of the forgotten rookie last season among his contemporaries. He never really had that landmark finish to put his name on the map so he enters this season as player that still has some value as a play on limited ownership in GPP play. Looking over his stats from last season is not going to tell you the full story on Ortiz. He experienced the usual ups and downs of most young players, but found his stride late in the year and his stats over the last twelve weeks show a player who can hit greens, plays very well on Par 5 holes and is one of the better scorers in the field. He finished in 65th place here last season (gulp), but I am hoping he can build off of that and improve this year.

Birdie or Better %- 46th
Strokes Gained Putting- 63rd
Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green- 116th
Par 4 Scoring- 128th
Par 5 Scoring- 9th
Scrambling- 158th

DEEP SLEEPER

Scott Hend ($7,700) – Hend is a name that jumped out at me this week. In other words, I thought to myself, who the hell is Scott Hend? Well, he is an Australian player that has played the Malaysian Open all seven years that it has been held at the West Course. he has made the cut five out of the seven years and finished in the Top 20 in three of his last four starts here. He also recently posted a win at the Venetian Macao Open tow weeks ago so he has shown the ability to pick up top finishes in events. This is the ultimate boom or bust type of play. Hend will either find himself in contention this weekend or finish 75th. That seems to be the way that most of his results look at this course and also over the course of last season. Hend is a pure GPP play this week, but if he hits big, you and one other owner will probably be the only couple of folks with a stake in him.

There are a handful of other guys that are worth a quick mention down in this range as well. Richard T. Lee has played well on this course the last two years in the Malaysian Open with a 5th and 18th place finish, although his play has been a bit erratic in recent months. Andrew Dodt has played really well on the Asian Tour this past season, but not great in European events. He made the cut the last three times that he played on this course although his finishes were no higher than the mid 30 range so he may lack the upside in a no cut event to mount a challenge. SSP Chawrasia, an Indian player who primarily plays on the European Tour has played here all seven times that the Malaysian Open has been held at the West Course with his best finish coming this year when he finished 10th. The rest of his play this season has been unremarkable, so I do not think his ceiling is quite high enough for his price this week.

Good Luck!

-myzteriouzly

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