The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – BMW Championship
Remember back at the beginning of 2017 when all the cool kids on Twitter were tearing Bryson DeChambeau and his game to pieces? Yes, those are the same folks now who cannot praise him enough as his game continues to improve with each passing week. After collecting his second consecutive win in the FedEx Cup Playoffs and 3rd win overall this year, Bryson has established himself so well among his peers that his selection to the Ryder Cup team was essentially a foregone conclusion this week as one of three Captain’s picks announced so far. I think it is safe to say that those calling him overrated will not be heard from again for quite some time.
This week, the tour moves on very quickly on to the BMW Championship at Aronimink near Philadelphia, a course that has not hosted an event since 2011 and which has undergone dramatic changes since that last tournament seven years ago. It will be interesting to see how the short week effects the players this week. Typically, the schedule has allowed for a week off after the second playoff tournament which was always nice after wrapping up at TPC Boston late on a Monday afternoon. With little time to rest and even less time than normal to acclimate to a course that many players have never seen, exhaustion could start to play a roll and be detrimental to those players who have been playing for 5-6 straight weeks. Interestingly enough, as I was writing this particular portion of the column, Hideki Matsuyama withdrew from the Pro Am event today citing heat exhaustion as the culprit. While the weather is certainly muggy again this week, I suspect that Hideki is just a little worn out and needed the extra day to rest up before the tournament. He is one of a few notable names that have played the last five straight weeks along with Webb Simpson and Rafa Cabrera Bello. While these guys are all in fairly good shape overall, even the best players are not immune to fatigue, although I am looking at the Hideki ProAm WD as little more than a player looking to get some rest during a short week before the tournament starts tomorrow. With Hideki beig right on the bubble this week, there was little reason for him to push himself too much today when he has so much to play for this week.
There are a few key differences this week that should be noted when putting together your lineups. The most obvious change in format is that this is now a 69 player field with no cut taking place. This should allow you to be much more aggressive with how you put together your player pool as regardless of how mediocre some of these players are out of the gates, they will all get four full rounds to work with for scoring purposes. With that said, you will still want to be a little bit careful about diving too far down into the lower salary tier as you need to understand the mindset of the players and how you would expect them to play if they do not get off to the best start. In order to qualify for the Tour Championship in two weeks at East Lake, players will need to be inside of the Top-30 in FedEx Cup points at the end of this week. For players who are on or near the bubble, this should be something that keeps them motivated from start to finish. In taking a quick peak at the players who are closest to the bubble on each side, we have:
25. Tiger Woods
26. Rickie Fowler
27. Jordan Spieth
28. Hideki Matsuyama
29. Emiliano Grillo
30. Gary Woodland
31. Chez Reavie
32. Brandt Snedeker
33. CT Pan
34. Pat Perez
35. Andrew Landry
36. Chesson Hadley
37. Rafa Cabrera Bello
The other big consideration this week is what I would term ‘the anti-bubble’ players. Anytime we have an event without a cut where players are guaranteed four rounds and a paycheck, we always have to worry about how certain players will perform if they sink to the bottom of the leaderboard after the first couple of rounds. Usually, when this happens, you see a lot of players throw in the towel by Saturday and play some pretty carefree gold over the weekend. For players who needed to make a massive leap to qualify for the Tour Championship, a slow start at the BMW will wipe away any hopes of moving on which will make these players kryptonite for any rosters that they show up on. This is not something that is easy to project at the outset, but definitely something to keep in mind for those of you who enjoy the single round and weekend contests. The motivation level just is not going to be there for many players who are hovering around the mid 60s in the standings with little more than a round or two of golf separating them from beginning the offseason and a well earned vacation.
When looking at the course this week, we have another long, challenging Par 70 course to work with as the course will play at over 7,200 yards and provide few scoring opportunities along the way, although the fairways have been widened as many of the trees that once lined the fairways have been removed and the greens expanded. This will be another great test for mid to long iron play, particularly on the Par 3 holes this week with three of them coming in at over 220 yards and five of the Par 4s over 450 yards. The bentgrass greens should play at an average speed this week due to rain and the biggest challenge that most players will face will be in avoiding the sand as there are over 170 bunkers on the course.
Key Stats
Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 25%
Strokes Gained Putting: 25%
Birdie or Better Percentage: 15%
Proximity: 15%
Scrambling: 10%
Strokes Gained Off the Tee: 10%
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