The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – BMW Championship

It was the best of times two weeks ago and less than the best of times last weekend at the Deutsche Bank Championship. After having enormous success with The Barclays, The Deutsche Bank hit us upside the head with the leaderboard becoming more frustrating by the day. There were points at which I felt like the names at the bottom would have looked just as believable as if they were on top and vice versa. There were moments of sheer agony for Jeff and myself as Paul Casey rocketed into first place early on and then appeared poised to capture a win when he entered the final day with a three shot advantage. Even Rory McIlroy’s sensational victory felt hollow to us as a second place finish from Casey a year ago would have easily been a good enough finish for us to have taken home $200,000 and a championship.

Fortunately, it was just a single week as the beauty of DFS is the ability to start over as soon as the last tournament has come to and end. However, we are running out of time this season as there are only two events left before the FedEx Cup champion is crowned at the end of the month. Once again, the event will play out quite differently than the last two tournaments so be sure to consider your strategy carefully when selecting your rosters.

For those of you still alive in the Fantasy Golf World Championship, the strategy shifts dramatically this week as the event will play from 70 down to 30 entries. The vast majority of those entries are controlled by a handful of players so it would behoove you to study up on how those players have been constructing their rosters over the last few weeks. With 30 teams moving on, this event will play similarly to a double up.

In looking at the event this week, the BMW Championship has a field of 69 players this week and there is no cut involved. That means that all of the high risk/high reward players that we reserve for GPP events most weeks are now in play. So long as a golfer can put up a lot of birdies, he can be useful this week, even if that means he does not finish extremely high in the standings. There is really very little difference between a cash lineup and a GPP lineup this week other than ownership trends. There are still going to be a few names at the bottom that go overlooked who outperform their price. To win a GPP, you will have to find the one or two players who rise up out of nowhere to contend, much the way Daniel Berger did a year ago at this event.

Crooked Stick is a Pete Dye designed course that opened back in 1964. There have not many big events played here over the years outside of the BMW back in 2012 and the PGA Championship back in 1991. Rory McIlroy won the event back in 2012 and as he is now coming off of a win last week, his shares are soaring and I would anticipate him being on of the highest owned players of the week. The course is a 7,500 yard, Par 72 course that tended to favor the bigger hitters four years ago.

While Pete Dye courses tend to be a bit more complex than just adding length for the sake of length, it certainly will not hurt players who have a little bit more distance to their game than fellow competitors. While some Pete Dye courses tend to challenge players with narrow fairways, shorter Par 4’s and small greens, Crooked Stick is on the longers side with lengthy Par 4’s in the 450 yard range and only one that is under 400 yards. There are four Par 5 holes, with three of them being reachable in two shots. Water will play a roll this week as it will factor into eight of the holes with ponds and creeks around the course. The greens are well defended by the water and also the addition of many deep bunkers in the vicinity. That said, scoring was not a real issue for players in 2012 as Rory won with a score of -20 and only a handful of players were over par after four full rounds.

The key stats for the week are based on a careful examination of the course and will be updated again tomorrow once we receive some additional more comprehensive data:

Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 25%
Strokes Gained Putting: 25%
Birdie or Better %: 20%
Strokes Gained Approach: 15%
Par 5 Scoring: 10%
Driving Distance: 5%

Keep your bankroll exposure on the small side this week. In a smaller field where there is no cut, we have less of an advantage over others in the field and have less of an opportunity to capitalize on tactical errors with regards to roster selection. As always, I will be playing 70-80% cash games and a small number of GPP entries. We’ve had some nice success with some high finishes in recent weeks so hopefully we can make one more run before the end of the season.

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We are going to keep it simple this and cut our lineups down to two with the smaller field for the week and lack of cuts. We wanted to emphasize players that are capable of putting up a lot of points while also making sure to field a couple of value plays in order to stock our rosters at the top. The stars and scrubs approach is definitely the way to go in terms of constructing a good cash lineup. Most players will know this going in so I anticipate that most cash and GPP rosters will be built along those lines. If you are entering many GPP lineups, considering building some balanced rosters as a way to be contrarian against ownership trends. While Rory did win this event previously, as we have seen all season, a new winner can come out of nowhere at almost anytime.

Adam Scott – $10,200
Phil Mickelson – $8,800
Ryan Moore – $8,700
Gary Woodland – $8,400
Jason Dufner – $6,900
Ryan Palmer – $6,800

Dustin Johnson – $11,300
Bubba Watson – $8,600
Paul Casey – $8,300
Brooks Koepka – $8,000
Jason Dufner – $6,900
Ryan Palmer – $6,800

Both lineups are solid with Dufner and Palmer the only constants on each. Below $7,000 is tough territory this week as beyond those two golfers, there are no standout values that jump off the page. Fortunately, the two that we have are suitable and while neither really looks to have a tremendous amount of upside, it feels like they each have a high enough floor to help us out for the week. The other players selected are all players who have a little distance to their game, but also some scoring capability. Brooks Koepka at $8,000 is now back down to a price where it would tough for him to not hit value this week even if he puts up another uneven performance. As long as he puts up a lot of birdies (or and eagle or two) he will score plenty of points to justify his price. Adam Scott and DJ are both fairly obvious plays given their current form and also past history at Crooked Stick. Bubba and Phil should both bounce back this week after struggling last week and we are getting a nice price break on both. Finally, Paul Casey and Ryan Moore are both in great form right now and Moore finished highly here back in 2012.

I think we have two solid lineups here. Obviously, a withdrawal from any player could crush us, but that is simply a part of DFS golf that we have to learn to contend with each year. With the later start times in the morning, there is no reason not to be up and checking on your lineups for any last second changes that may occur. Again, normally I would not be in 100% on two players in a cash lineup, but seeing as there is no cut, the risks are lower and I feel so much more comfortable using these two players for cash than anyone else in this range. If you require a third lineup for your own comfort, there is a lot of value in the 8k range this week so that you could build a team from those players and feel pretty comfortable about being competitive this week.

CORE

Dustin Johnson – 60% ($11,300)
Patrick Reed – 40% ($9,700)
Ryan Palmer – 40% ($6,800)
Bubba Watson – 35% ($8,600)
Paul Casey – 35% ($8,300)
Hideki Matsuyama – 30% ($9,100)
Phil Mickelson – 30% ($8,800)
Brooks Koepka – 30% ($8,000)

We have a slightly larger core group this week as the field is stacked enough so that I really only felt compelled to go highly overweight at the top with Dustin Johnson. I think Rory is going to be the most popular pick by far this week considering he won last weekend and he won here back in 2012. He has a new putting coach and whatever he is doing differently, it appears to be working for him so far. That said, given his ownership numbers, I am going to go a different direction this week although it would be perfectly reasonable to roll him out again in all formats, particularly given the fact that the pricing at the top is not quite as tight as most weeks and that there are plenty of reasonable players to fill a lineup with around him.

I decided to use Dustin Johnson this week as the high priced player to overweight for the weekend. Outside of the PGA Championship, DJ has been excellent with as good of a tee to green game as anyone on tour and an improved putting stroke that his lifted him to two wins and twelve Top-10 finishes this season. He is familiar with the course, having finished 6th at the BMW in 2012 and his length and scoring ability on both Par 4 and 5 holes are going to be the key to his success this week.

I deliberated for a long time between DJ and Jason Day for that top spot this week. I like that Day will probably be the lower owned player this week and thus, from a game theory perspective, makes for a strong play. What I do not like about Day right now is how much he is struggling to keep the ball on or near the fairway. Much like Jordan Spieth, Day is getting himself into too much trouble off the tee and relying on his putter to bail him out for par instead of getting himself set up for scoring opportunities. I would not blame you for owning shares of Day this week as it will be slightly contrarian to do so, but in the end, I prefer DJ for his stronger all around play right now.

The next highest owned player this week is Patrick Reed. Once again, we get a nice discount on Reed relative to the other elite players in the field. DraftKings and the sportsbooks do not quite feel that Reed has reached the ‘Top-5 player in the world’ status that Reed so boldly declared two years ago. However, at this point, it is starting to look like an argument could be made on his behalf. Reed has finished outside of the Top-13 only once in his last eight starts (22nd at The Wyndham) and looks locked in for the FedEx Cup playoffs after recording a win at The Barclays and a 5th place finish last weekend in Boston. We get a lot of potential upside for the price for a player with plenty of distance and scoring capability.

Ryan Palmer is our low priced, heavily weighted option in our core group. He has been steady all year, can hit the long ball and handles the Par 5’s without issue. He has not given us as many Top-10 finishes as we would like to see, but that is a big part of the reason that we are able to pick him up for $6,800 this week. If Palmer can compete for a Top-20 finish this week, he will have justified his low price with ease.

Bubba Watson blew his first cut all season last week and hurt a surprisingly high number of owners in an event he had never played particularly well. This week, with another price reduction, and an additional Par 5 on a lengthy course, I feel good about grabbing Bubba here for a number of our rosters. At $8,600, he does not need to be in the Top-10 to justify his price and can give us value with a reasonable finish where he scores a lot of birdies. Bubba finished 12th here back in 2012 and I envision a similar performance for him this week.

Paul Casey….painful to have taken a week away from Casey for more reasons than I want to get into here. He had been good to us in recent weeks as his form seems to be returning late in the season. After his 2nd place finish last weekend, he moved into 10th place in the FedEx Cup standings and he has now placed in the Top-20 in three of his last four events. Casey is an excellent ball striker with good distance off the tee who tends to stay out of trouble by hitting a lot of fairways and greens. He is particularly on Par 4’s which will be helpful this week and while a repeat of last week’s performance might be a bit much to ask for, I expect him to be jostling for position among the Top-25 this week.

The biggest worry we have had in using Hideki over the last couple of months has been his inconsistency around making the cut. It is tough to pay up for a player in this range with so much uncertainty, but fortunately, we do not have to worry about that this week with no cut looming. His tee to green game, middle and long iron game and scoring ability make him a really strong play this week, especially on a course with so many long Par 4’s. His putter is usually the only thing that holds him back from a good to great performance.

When a strong player misses the cut in a big event, the temptation is to stay away the following week. Phil completely came unhinged in the first round last week and a bout of bad decision making proved to be extremely costly and caused him to make a quadruple bogey which he never recovered from. But we cannot let that be a distraction for us in looking at Phil objectively this week. His tee to green game, strokes gained approach and work around and on the greens still makes him an excellent play this week and without a potential cut to deal with, we have much less to worry about in the opening rounds. As a bonus, Phil finished 2nd at Crooked Stick back in 2012 so he is very capable of doing special things this week.

Is Brooks Koepka going to limp to the end of the season like he did a year ago? It may be the case. However, going into a no cut event gives us a great opportunity to capitalize on the fear of other owners this week. While paying $9000 or $10,000 for Brooks in a loaded field is a huge risk even in a cut free event, at $8,000, our risk is pretty limited. Brooks is an erratic player who can be red hot or ice cold within the blink of an eye. What we know we will get from Brooks the week are plenty of scoring opportunities. He may finish in the middle of the pack this week, but in terms of DraftKings points, his style almost guarantees a high finish. He can drive the ball well off the tee and his putting is borderline elite. The key to rostering Brooks is to accept the fact that mistakes (big mistakes) are coming and not to dwell on finishing position so much as birdie and eagle attempts.

SECONDARY

Tomy Finau – 25% ($7,600) – 3 straight Top-25 finishes, bomber who can score on Par 5’s
Jason Kokrak – 25% ($7,500) – Two straight Top-10 finishes to start the FedEx Cup, excellent long ball hitter, great long iron play, low risk without a cut
Jhonattan Vegas – 25% ($7,500) – bomber who has improved his putting significantly over the last couple of seasons, coming off of a recent win and several Top-25 finishes
Brendan Steele – 25% ($7,400) – Long ball hitter with good tee to green game, erratic, but should handle the length here well
Adam Scott – 20% ($10,200) – back to back 4th place finishes to start the playoffs, excellent from tee to green, finished 6th here in 2012
Louis Oosthuizen – 20% ($9,300) – 6 Top-25 finishes in his last 7 starts, always low owned, plays his best golf in tough fields, finished 16th here in 2012
Gary Woodland – 20% ($8,400) – 4th and 15th to start the FedEx Cup, solid play all season, big hitter off the tee with excellent Par 5 scoring ability
Justin Thomas – 20% ($7,300) – Good value for the price, strong tee to green player that can score, limited downside without a cut, high upside
Jason Dufner – 20% ($6,900) – Underpriced this week, good long iron player, will handle the length of the course well, struggles w his putter, could limit upside

TERTIARY

Jimmy Walker – 15% ($8,100) – erratic, but gets a lot of distance off the tee and is an elite putter
Scott Piercy – 15% ($7,100) – streaky player that can jump up in stronger fields from time to time, should be lower owned this week
Charles Howell III – 15% ($6,900) – Seems to have recovered from his injury after a 24th place finish last weekend, big hitter with scoring potential
Sean O’Hair – 15% ($6,900) – inconsistent from week to week, but without a cut, worth the risk for GPP upside this week, drives the ball well, excellent on Par 4 scoring, should have birdie opportunities
Roberto Castro – 15% ($6,400) – Low cost play having a very good season, shorter hitter, but excellent on Par 4 and Par 5’s, capable of making a lot of birdies
Harris English – 10% ($6,700) – Upside has been limited, but he is one of the best names below $7k this week and should be able to put up a reasonable number of points for his price
Charley Hoffman – 10% ($6,400) – Looked awful last week and sees a big drop in price this week, big hitter who has had a really solid season, low risk for the price
Smylie Kaufman – 5% ($6,800) – Showed some life last week with a Top-25 finish, without a cut, his value rises with his scoring ability, did well at Doral against a similar field on a challenging course in a no cut event

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