The Daily Spin – DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – Arnold Palmer Invitational

Some weeks you just have to fight through adversity. Last week proved to be one of those situations at the Valspar as a couple of untimely withdrawals tore apart my chances to win in cash games for the week and left me feeling frustrated as the tournament was winding down. Fortunately, my best lineup of the week was well positioned in the $530 GPP and managed to rally late for a 2nd place finish and a $3,000 prize. In a season that has tested my patience at times, it was a nice win to kick off the spring and gave me a little extra momentum as we move towards the heart of the season.

Of course, in a 20 player event, my score was not particularly high compared to winning scores in other GPP events. Whenever people see these results, the temptation is to think that it is time to move up to the big games and throw in a few more dollars since to so-called professionals do not seem to be putting together monster teams with blowout scores. I was asked this week on Twitter about when the right time is to move up into the bigger games and I thought this would be a great forum to discuss that with you.

One of the frustrating parts of playing the lower level buy-ins for GPPs is that it is such a daunting task to defeat so many other players. For the $3 GPP each week, there are over 76,000 entries and the biggest prizes are stacked at the top making it a real challenge to walk away with a big prize. Not only that, but more than likely, you will have to put in a good deal of time building countless lineups or checking your player exposure percentages to get it just right. For some, this is one of the joys of fantasy sports, but for others under more time constraints, this can be exhausting and not always something that you will be able to do on a Wednesday night.

For those of you who have a little more money to work with, there is a solution to this issue and that is to play at a higher buy-in with a smaller field. Now, this approach is certainly not suitable for everyone. Just because the field is smaller and the winning scores lower, does not mean that you should think it is going to be easy to win at these events. Most of the best players in the game tend to be involved in these contests, which is exciting, but also makes for some very competitive events.

One of the things to note for events like this is that the strategy is a little bit different from conventional GPPs. Whenever I play in smaller field events, it is my one and only goal to focus on selecting players that I think will make the cut. Obviously, if you happen to stumble upon a player like Charles Howell III, who played above himself and took 5th place last week, you’re happy, but most importantly, I look to minimize volatility within my lineup. What this means is that often times, I will have a lineup that looks very similar to my cash game lineups for the week. My 2nd place team for last week consisted of: Matt Kuchar, Jason Dufner, Danny Lee, Freddie Jacobson, CHIII and Will Wilcox. Wilcox was the last player selected and was so due to his positive belief that his game was ready to go for the weekend which ended up being fortuitous as he knocked in a couple of eagles over the weekend to outplay his price.

I had some success with this approach last season as well as I was fortunate enough to win a $1060 Clubhouse event in August. It generally fits in with the idea that as the field shrinks, it is much less important to be perfect, thus negating the need to swing for the fences with deep sleeper picks that will be more volatile from event to event. Of course, the specific event plays a roll in my strategy. For a course like Doral, where the winner almost always comes from the elite group of players at the top of the salary chain, a balanced strategy has almost no chance of winning. In events where the winner can come from a wide range of salaries, the balanced approach will work more successfully for smaller field GPPs.

The difficult part of the whole equation is bankroll management. If I can play 100 $3 entries or 1 $300 entry, it should be obvious that the swings in your bankroll are going to be much larger. My personal preference is to play in the $530 or $1060 GPP each week with a single entry where the field is limited to 20-50 players. These are similar to the style of events that are set up for the Fantasy Golf World Championship so it is nice to get out in front of things now to get used to the feel for these events. A good rule of thumb for jumping up to the bigger games is to make sure your bankroll is 20-30 times and individual buy-in. It would not be unusual to finish out of the money on a cold streak for as many as ten straight events which can cripple you if you do not have the dollars to back your play.

This leads me to my next point which is that in order to make the move up, you should be ready to fully commit to making the leap. If you move up for one or two weeks and do not win, what have you learned? It is such a small sample size that you cannot even fully evaluate whether or not the poor results were process driven or simply a little variance. If it is your intention to make the move up, feel free to reach out to me directly to discuss strategy and lineup considerations. I tend to put a lot of hours into a handful of lineups so I am happy to help you through the process if you are ready for the challenge. It’s like I always tell those folks looking at the lower scores in those contests and ruminating about such a low bar; the top players will welcome you with open arms….

Quickly looking at the course this week, we head to Bay Hill, which is a little less challenging than what we have had to deal with over the last few weeks. The course plays at around 7,400 yards and is a Par 72 with Bermuda Grass (the Finau killer) and is located near Orlando, FL. While the scores do tend to be better than other Florida courses, there is still enough water around the course to wreck a few rounds should players get careless. The weather looks like it will again be a factor. No storms are currently expected on Thursday, but beginning on Friday afternoon and continuing throughout the weekend it looks like there will be scattered storms so be sure to give the weather a look before submitting your lineups and make sure to check your e-mail for updates on tee time preference. That did factor into my winning lineup last week as five of my six golfers on my 2nd place team teed off in the afternoon on Thursday to minimize exposure to the winds during the first two rounds.

Our good friends at Fantasy Golf Metrics ran a regression of the key stats for us and came up with these numbers for the week:

Strokes Gained Tee to Green – 25%
Strokes Gained Putting – 25%
Birdie or Better % – 25%
Proximity – 15%
Par 5 Scoring – 10%

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Best of luck this week and shoot me any questions that you have through Twitter or e-mail and I will do my best to get to all of them tomorrow once I get a little rest.

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The optimal lineup got crushed last week, which is always a lot of fun to hear about. Two withdrawals ruined our chances to cash which is a shame as Ryan Moore’s effort should have put us in position to cash even had we been able to get four players through the cut. We tweaked and worked on the numbers late in the night last night and arrived at what I think is a reasonable optimal lineup for the week. I want to reiterate that this is a starting point each week and I would not pin 100% of your cash game hopes to a single lineup as the odd week will happen like last where a couple of WD’s ruin the whole thing.

Henrik Stenson – $11,100
Harris English – $8,400
Brendan Steele – $7,700
Ryan Palmer – $7,700
Gary Woodland – $7,700
Smylie Kaufman – $7,300

My first look lineup was really similar to this one. A couple variations that I used were trading out Smylie for Luke Donald or upgrading English to Kuchar and then dropping down from Stenson to Matsuyama. I have to admit that seeing Ryan Palmer in there is a little unnerving when looking at his history at Bay Hill, but considering how far back most of his appearances were (last played here in 2012), I think we are safe in overlooking some of his earlier struggles as he has become a much better player in recent years. Some of you might be a little nervous about Harris English after he hurt you lat week, but one missed cut will not take me off of one of the more consistent cut makers on tour. Plus, we are getting a nice break in price this week as he is back in the salary range where we are accustomed to seeing him at for the most part. I really like anchoring your cash team to Stenson this week. His long iron play should help him to continue his successful run at Bay Hill this season and with so many reasonable options in the $7,000 range, you do not have to give up a lot to get him on your roster.

BLUE CHIPS

Adam Scott ($11,700)
Henrik Stenson ($11,100)
Justin Rose ($10,500)
Matt Kuchar ($9,400)
Kevin Kisner ($8,900)

Adam Scott enters this event needing very little introduction. He won in his last two starts and took second previous to that. It appears that the putting yips are behind him and if he truly has learned to use it as a weapon he is going to be dangerous this season. While folks avoided him after his win, the superstition probably will not hold for Scott in terms of low ownership this time around so you may have to pick and choose where to use Scott this week. Scott does everything well in all categories we looked at statistically so I expect him to contend for his fourth start in a row.

Henrik Stenson never really strikes me as the happy go lucky type on the golf course and his demeanor seems to darken as the weekend moves towards its conclusion, thus his propensity to tighten up and come up short many times on Sunday. However, Stenson is usually consistent in his play which makes him easy to roster for cash game use. He has been so good at Bay Hill the last three years that I suspect most owners will not worry about him finishing outside of the Top 10 in his first two events in the US this year. I will be using Stenson in all formats as he his long iron game will put him at an advantage this week.

While Justin Rose has not been bad this season, he has yet to truly contend this year outside of a 6th place finish at Pebble Beach last month. His history at Bay Hill is mostly positive with only a couple of missed cuts and three Top 10 finishes. I like Rose here as he tends to get overlooked with players like Scott, McIlroy, Day and Stenson around him in price. His stats certainly check out here with a strong tee to green game, ability to score and and his strength on Par 5 holes. I recommend him slightly higher for GPP play, but comfortable seeing him in your cash game lineups as well.

You are probably getting sick of seeing Matt Kuchar here every week, but the guy just keeps making cuts and putting up strong finishes. If you are counting on Kuchar for a win, you have the wrong golfer, but 10th-25th is always a possibility and with how few cuts he misses, he usually makes it into a good portion of my lineups. Surprisingly, this is Kuchar’s first trip to Bay Hill, but the stats line up really well and he looks to be one of the better values in the high end range of players.

Kevin Kisner feels like a bargain this week after his last few events. What I like about Kisner is that he looks like he is turning a corner with his 23rd place finish at the WGC at Doral a couple of weeks back. Pat Mayo calls him ‘American Stenson’ which is a fitting comparison in terms of their respective games. The benefit of using Kisner is that his putter tends to be better than Stenson although his results in Florida do not show that as of yet. At $8,900, Kisner is a solid play in all formats as most owners will be looking to go big at the top and will probably neglect the high $8,000 and $9,000 range giving him additional GPP value.

TOP TIER VALUE

Harris English ($8,400)
Zach Johnson ($8,300)
Charles Howell III ($8,000)
William McGirt ($7,700)
Brendan Steele ($7,700)

Harris English provided the biggest disappointment for owners last week as his missed cut was so unexpected after playing so well early on this season. Fortunately, we are not going to let recency bias cloud our judgement this week and we will go right back in on English again with the benefit of getting him at a lower price and with the stink of a missed cut still lingering. English is much more palatable at his price tag this week as he can comfortably play the roll of cut maker with the chance for a little upside if things go well. I like English for cash game rosters in particular this week given his consistency, but also his capped upside and potential for higher levels of ownership make him less appealing for GPP events.

Zach Johnson is going to get one more opportunity this week before I potentially take a little break from him. ZJ has been up and down this season since switching to his new PXG clubs and while Charles Howell III has excelled after switching to the same style, ZJ has not been quite as consistent as previous years. In looking at his price this week, it is tough not to give him one more look before throwing in the towel. He has played well here in the past and although his game has been up and down, this is still Zach Johnson we are talking about here. I will have exposure to Johnson in GPP events this week.

As we just mentioned above, not all club changes effect players the same way and Charles Howell III seems to have gained everything that Johnson lost in the switch as his upside has increased dramatically from previous years. Fortunately, for us, his price has not leaped much higher than around $8,000. Given his consistent tournament history at Bay Hill where he has missed just one cut i his last twelve starts, CHIII should be highly owned this week, but that will not stop me from getting him into cash game lineups or small field GPPs.

William McGirt has quickly become the favorite player of our stat guy, Erik, after a couple of strong finishes that propelled the optimal lineup into the money this season. If McGirt starts well, he usually has a shot at a Top 25 finish for the week. Other weeks, he is DOA after the first few holes so we do not always get as much sweat equity when it comes to the Dirt Man. He is certainly not a long hitter off the tee, but his tee to green game and putting have been near career bests for him this season and he is hitting a lot of birdies because of it. With his solid play this season and good experience in making four of five cuts at Bay Hill, McGirt looks like a nice cash game option for the week and given the other bigger names around him, I like him for GPPs as well.

Brendan Steele at $7,700 looks to be one of the better values of the week and really stood out on our model beating out others well above his salary. Steele is a long ball hitter with a great tee to green game, but questionable putter. He is three for five here in making the cut and has missed just two cuts this season. There are enough quality players priced in this range that I think his ownership levels will be contained enough to use Steele in all formats this week.

VALUE PLAYS

Ryan Palmer ($7,700)
Gary Woodland ($7,700)
Billy Horschel ($7,700)
John Huh ($7,500)
Smylie Kaufman ($7,300)
Chez Reavie ($7,200)

Ryan Palmer intrigued me this week as it is incredibly rare to see him down in this price range. A quick scan of his tournament history reveals the reason why as Palmer has been miserable here over the years. It should be enough to deter the novices that fixate on tournament history. It should be noted that the last time Palmer played his was 2012 so he is a completely different player now. I am comfortable using him in all formats this week.

Gary Woodland continues to make cuts each week which is a welcome change following a poor 2015 season. If you use him, you can expect him to mail it in on Sunday as he has been awful on Sundays this year, but he has made all eight cuts in events this season. The tee to green game has really come together for Woodland leading to more consistent results and setting him up for a much better season than a year ago. He does struggle with the putter which tends to keep him out of contention, but he has finished in the Top 30 here for three straight years. Woodland works in all formats this week.

Billy Horschel has never been a favorite player of mine due to his streaky nature of play which usually means I own him on the wrong weeks. He tends to be a strong ball striker with a respectable tee to green game and better than average putter, though it has not been that way on the greens so far this season. Billy has been a good cut maker here over the years and has played well in his last five events, making every cut and finishing in the Top 10 twice. I am comfortable with him in cash games, but will have some exposure to him in GPPs as well.

Outside of winning an event, John Huh will probably continue to stay below the radar this season. In his last eight events, he has missed only one cut and finished in the Top 25 six times. Why the dramatic improvement? Check out the change in Huh’s tee to green numbers from last year to this year. Last season, Huh was a miserable -.272 SGTG, but has rebounded to an impressive +.624 this season. Huh has also made all three cuts in his starts at Bay Hill so I like him for both cash games (can’t believe I am saying that) and GPPs.

Is Smylie Kaufman going to become this season’s Justin Thomas where he is heavily owned almost every week after a hot start to the season? That is going to be an important question to answer in the weeks ahead as he may become a fade if his ownership levels are consistently in the 20% and above range. He is long off the tee, has an above average tee to green game and scores a lot of birdies on Par 5 holes. He looked great at the WGC at Doral two weeks ago so I anticipate good things for his debut at Bay Hill.

Every week I get down to a couple of players that I end up leaving out of my weekly column. Chez Reavie is usually the guy on the number that gets left on the cutting room floor. I just cannot overlook Reavie again. Reavie has missed only two cuts in eleven starts this season and his tee to green game improvement is to be thanked for the uptick in performance. Though Reavie has only one start at Bay Hill where he finished in 70th place back in 2012, he seems to have found something special in his game this season and I am comfortable enough to use him for a few GPPs this week.

SLEEPERS

Aaron Baddeley ($6,800)
Retief Goosen ($6,800)
Daniel Summerhays ($6,800)
Will Wilcox ($6,600)
Hudson Swafford ($6,300)

Picking Aaron Baddeley and Hudson Swafford for me has felt a lot like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football over and over again. You know what is coming and yet you still believe that this time…it is going to really happen! Baddeley has been very good this year missing just two cuts with two Top 10 finishes. He has missed just one cut in his last seven starts at Bay Hill. Again, the season over season improvement is directly proportional to the improvement in his tee to green game where he has gone from being downright awful to merely a little below average. Are you seeing a pattern yet? Strokes Gained Tee to Green consistently is one of the best metrics to look at for in evaluating players and those who improve in that category by the margins shown by some of the players mentioned here, will usually see a corresponding improvement in where they finish as well.

Typically, I am not a big fan of the older players for use in DFS as they typically are pretty well capped in terms of their upside. Given the environment this year of players being increasingly volatile when it comes to making or missing the cut, a veteran like Goosen might be just the change of pace we are looking for this week. He has made four straight cuts and eight of his last nine at Bay Hill. He has been getting the job done with his putter this year so hopefully he can keep his nice run going. Goosen can be used in small amounts for GPP lineups.

Daniel Summerhays looks to be back on track after a couple of missed cuts, marking the only two he has missed all season. Like Goosen, he has largely achieved his success through his putter which has helped him to elevate his Par 5 scoring average and birdie or better percentage. He has had mixed results at Bay Hill, but is playing well enough for GPP consideration this week.

Will Wilcox is quite possibly the most accessible player on tour for the DFS community. He is brutally honest about the state of his game and outside of Phoenix, where he surprised even himself, he is normally right in his assessment. When his game is on, there are few that strike the ball better than Wilcox and he does have the ability to score as evidenced by his two eagles last weekend. I suspect with his information being so public, there will be a boost in his ownership levels, but not enough to prevent me from taking some shots in GPP events.

Hudson Swafford worked out okay for us last weekend as a super scrub sub 6k play for the week. Though he dropped back over the weekend, just making the cut at $5,900 was more than enough to compensate us for the risk. Though his price has risen slightly this week, he is still a great bargain with some upside, having finished 11th here a year ago. He is the rare good ball striker and long iron player with below average tee to green numbers, so when things go bad, they are usually a disaster. However, given his price, Swafford is one of the best low end value plays in the scrub range for GPP play this week.

Good Luck,

-myz
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