The Daily Spin – Charles Schwab Challenge

The Daily Spin – Charles Schwab Challenge

RECAP

It was a fun, but strange week for the PGA Championship. Rory McIlroy announced that he is getting a divorce. Scottie Scheffler was arrested for felony assault and reckless driving among other loaded up charges and Xander Schauffele broke the seal and notched his first major championship win with a birdie on the final hole to edge out Bryson DeChambeau and preventing the LIV Tour from picking up its second PGA Championship in a row.

I went a little unconventional with my lineup build for the week. My top three plays above $10k were Scottie, Rory and Xander. With the way that the pricing was laid out, I was regrettably able to squeeze Scottie and Rory into my main lineup, leaving off Xander. My team did okay, but was pretty middle of the road for how it finished, cashing in some contests and missing the line by a few points in other contests. I never would have anticipated Scottie getting derailed from a driving arrest in the early hours prior to the second round on Friday. Rory simply went back to his normal major championship self, playing largely inconsequential golf over the weekend and finishing up with very little TV time on Sunday after winning in his previous two starts.

The rest of my team was a creative effort as I looked for a way to save cap space. I found enough golfers in the low $6k range so that I felt like it was not unreasonable to pick four of the better players in that range and take my chances. Two of those plays worked out nicely, one fought hard, but missed the cut and one of the players did not show up at all.

I liked Tom Hoge as a nice fit for Valhalla. His iron play has been among the best on tour over the last two seasons and he has been a good cut maker for us during that time. He stumbled a bit in the second round with a 73, but shot 66, 68 and 67 the other three rounds and managed a 23rd place finish, exceeding expectations based on his salary. He ended up being my best value play of the week at $6400. He is the type of golfer who sees massive swings in his salary throughout the year and this week he bounced back up to $9300. I think that is an interesting number to keep an eye on when evaluating value plays each week. I am not sure exactly how that would be quantified, but clearly last week Hoge was way too cheap even given the strength of the field.

Lucas Glover did what I needed him to do, even if his 43rd place finish did not gain us much extra ground. Getting back to what I mentioned with Hoge, Glover was $6100 last week and this week only moved back up to $7500. With him and Hoge nearly priced the same last week, but wildly different this week, you really get a good idea of just how cheap Hoge was relative to his actual ability to perform. Glover was fine, not great last week. His game was balanced in unexpected ways as his putter was not a problem, but his tee to green game was not nearly as dynamic as we have seen during the last year which led to a middling result where he made the cut, but could not sustain any momentum.

Denny McCarthy was the most popular of my punt plays last week by a wide margin, but was never competitive in trying to make the cut. The problem with McCarthy is that he does not have much margin for error. Since he is not a good tee to green player, if his short game breaks down even a little bit, he will be in trouble. If his short game is merely average, he likely will miss the cut badly as he did last Friday. On a course like Valhalla, where players are scoring at a steady clip compared to other major course venues, this is a death blow for Denny’s game. We have seen Denny play well at longer courses this season as he finished in 6th place the previous week at Quail Hollow so he does have the ability to handle a lengthier track, but there was also a lot less scoring there so his weaknesses were not quite as amplified.

Is the Taylor Pendrith moment over or just did it just take a momentary hiatus last week? After four straight finishes of 11th or better, Pendrith fought hard, but fell short of making the cut last week at Valhalla. His putter killed him. I followed him on shot tracker and there were so many times where it looked like he had makeable birdie putts, but could not convert on Friday when it would have just taken a couple of putts to drop to get to the weekend.

Course

• Colonial Country Club
• Par 70
• 7,209 Yards
• Bentgrass Greens

Colonial Country Club in Forth Worth has been home to this tournament for many years. If you are confused about the name and think this is a new event, I am sure you are not alone. Two years ago, this was the Fort Worth Invitational. Prior to that, it was the Dean & DeLuca Invitational and from 2007 to 2015, it was known as the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial. While there have been many changes in the name over the years, Colonial is actually one of the longer tenured stops on tour as it has hosted a tournament every year going back to 1946. It is a classically designed course that plays at just over 7,200 yards and at a par of 70. There are two Par 5 holes, one of which is a scoring hole at 565 yards while the other is on the lengthy side at 635 yards meaning that there are not many easy birdie opportunities on the course. There are a good mix of Par 4 holes with six playing above 440 yards, but also four that play at 408 yards or less meaning that players will have to possess a well rounded approach game from both short to intermediate distances in order to contend which is evident when you look at recent winners over the years from Emiliano Grillo, Justin Rose, Kevin Kisner, Adam Scott, ZJ and Phil Mickelson and see that most of those names are excellent with their middle range irons. The fairways are narrow and tree lined so driver can be left in the bag much more often allowing players to focus on hitting the fairway in order to be well positioned for an approach shot as the bentgrass greens are on the small side making them more challenging than normal to hit and hold.

Course Comps

• Harbour Town
• PGA National
• East Lake
• Oak Hill
• Innisbrook
• Olympia Fields
• TPC Potomac

Field

For the week following a major tournament, the field is surprisingly strong. Much of that probably has to do with the rich history of Colonial as it has been host to this event for decades and is a very popular course among the players. Though many of the Top-10 players in the world have opted to take the week off to prepare for the Memorial next week up in Ohio, we still have a lot of really talented ball strikers here this week and I am finding myself struggling to decide which players near the top that I want to include as there are so many that check the boxes that I am looking for at this event. Even the $7k and $8k range are loaded up with great value plays this week so that I am not having a difficult time in many of my initial lineup builds. The pricing structure drops all the way down to $5k again this week so you can get creative with your builds and you will need to do so with Scottie up at $13,300.

Weather

• Fort Worth – https://www.windfinder.com/forecast/fort_worth

The winds are forecast to be gusty on Thursday and Friday this week. There does appear to be a weather edge this week though that is still developing and likely to continue to shift. On Thursday morning, the winds are forecast to be 8-12 mph in the morning with gusts in the 20-25 mph range. On Thursday afternoon, the winds pick up closer to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph by 3pm. On Friday, the winds are expected to be worse in the morning than afternoon. The early look shows gusts above 35 mph at 7am, 31 mph at 10am and then tapering off throughout the rest of the day. My initial take would be that the AM/PM wave would have a distinct advantage this week.

Local Connections

• Jordan Spieth
• Ryan Palmer
• Beau Hossler
• Scottie Scheffler
• Austin Smotherman
• Tom Hoge
• Pierceson Coody
• Parker Coody
• Mac Meissner
• Ben Kohles
• Jimmy Walker
• Michael Kim

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 25%
• Strokes Gained Putting: 25%
• Birdie or Better Percentage: 20%
• Scrambling: 15%
• Proximity: 10%
• Driving Accuracy: 5%

 

Cash Game Plays

Top Tier

Scottie Scheffler – The summer just became a little more interesting for Scottie. Will this driving incident rattle him over the next few months or will Louisville simply decide that it is not worth the effort and drop the charges entirely? Scottie did seem a little shaken on Saturday, but all in all, pulled it together pretty well outside of the first four holes of the third round. He is at the top of any and all models this week and he loves playing near home down in Texas. It seems like a great spot for him to rally back to play the sort of golf we have come to expect out of him. He has finished 2nd and 3rd at this tournament the last two years.

Collin Morikawa – Morikawa crushed it from tee to green last weekend and was in position to make a run on Sunday, but for the second major in a row, his putter betrayed him in the final round, losing over 3.5 strokes, missing one easy putt after another to keep him out of contention. On the positive side, his tee to green game has been fantastic of late. He has five straight Top-25 finishes, three of which resulted in Top-10 finishes. He is a great fit for a course like Colonial as he leads the tour in driving accuracy which will keep him out of trouble. If he can turn his putter around even a little bit, he can get back to his winning ways again.

Brian Harman – Harman is a veteran of Colonial and plays this event every year. He has made the cut in nine of his last ten starts here with six Top-25 finishes going back to 2015. He is accurate off the tee, a solid iron player and has always been strong with his short game play. He got tripped up at The Masters, but that was not unexpected as he does not generally have the length to keep up on a course like that. However, he is right at home playing at Colonial and a threat to contend in any week. he has gained nearly .7 strokes per round over 53 career starts on comp courses.

Harris English – English is the perfect combination of length and accuracy for a course like Colonial. This is a far cry from where he was just a few seasons ago when he could not hit a fairway. He has missed only one cut in thirteen starts this season and he has eight Top-25 finishes along the way. He had made the cut in five of six starts over the last decade, finished 12th last year and 2nd back in 2016. His ability to avoid trouble off the tee and strong short game play should line up for him to post another Top-25 finish.

 

Middle Tier

Christian Bezhuidenhout – CBez has finished 21st and 15th here the last two seasons and ranks 6th in my comp course model in his thirteen career starts. He is not great off the tee, but he is a good short iron player and his short game is always strong. He ranks 2nd among the field in SG:Short over the last 24 rounds. He’s made the cut in 10/13 starts this season with seven Top-25 finishes. Outside of courses on the longer side, he is in play most weeks.

Keegan Bradley – This feels like a Keegan Bradley course even though he does not play here often. He finished 32nd here back in 2020, but otherwise, it has not been a regular stop for him on his tour schedule each season. He is well balanced for length and accuracy off the tee, his iron play is always a strength of his game and his putter is…well…errr….still terrible. He missed 3/4 cuts back in February/March, but has since recovered well, making four straight cuts with three Top-25 finishes. Of note, he is considerably better when putting on bentgrass over other surfaces so that should help his recent dreadful green play.

Thomas Detry – Detry had a rough three tournament stretch in Mexico and Florida, but has since rallied nicely. Over his last six starts, he has four Top-20 finishes (three Top-10s in his last five starts) and had the quietest 4th place finish imaginable last weekend at the PGA Championship. He ranks 28th in SGTG over the last sixteen rounds, but an electric short game has him up to 3rd in SGTOT during that same time frame. Detry finished 21st here last year in his only start at Colonial.

 

Lower Tier

Aaron Rai – Rai has missed a handful of cuts this season, but has shown an incredible amount of talent in his play this year. He ranks 5th in SGTG and 5th in SGTOT over the last 24 rounds. He ranks 10th in Driving Accuracy and 10th in SGAPP this season, 8th in GIR% and 15th in proximity play. His short game has been just average, but he should be in good shape navigating a tight course. He has made the cut in both starts at Colonial and finished 12th here a year ago.

Mark Hubbard – Good Guy Mark Hubbard keeps making cuts and is now 14/14 in 2024. He lives in Texas now, though I am not factoring that much into my recommendation for the week. Hubbs is 5/5 making the cut at Colonial and finished 9th last year. He is playing well in most areas and there are not any real holes in his game. He ranks 28th in SGTG and 26th in SGTOT over the last 24 rounds. He is accurate off the tee and a good mid range iron player. He is also better on bentgrass over other surfaces.

Lucas Glover – It is not the Lucas Glover of the end of the 2023 season and playoffs, but he has not been bad either. He has made the cut in 11/13 starts this season and his tee to green play is still phenomenal, ranking 4th in SGTG over the last 24 rounds. He has made the cut here in his last three starts with two Top-25 finishes and he’s gained nearly a half stroke per round in 79 career starts. His putter is back to being awful, but he ranks 6th in driving accuracy and is amazing from short range with his irons. He is one of the better values on the board this board this week and his price did not rise nearly as much as others in his range from a week ago.

Austin Eckroat – Eckroat seems like a steal this week. He has missed only two cuts in fourteen starts this season and has missed just one since his win at the Cognizant Classic in March. He has five Top-25 finishes and is coming in off of an impressive 18th place finish last weekend in Valhalla. He recently finished 17th at Harbour Town, one of our comp courses this week and has been excellent in five comp course starts gaining over 1.2 strokes per round. Over the last 24 rounds, his tee to green game has been top notch, it has only been his short game play holding him back. He ranks 13th on tour in driving accuracy and he’s a good short iron player so this course should be a nice fit. He finished 16th here a year ago.

 

Deep Dives

Sam Stevens – Stevens has made seven straight cuts and has four Top-25 finishes in his last nine starts. He was born in Fort Worth so this is a homecoming of sorts this week for Stevens who finished 29th here last year in his first start at Colonial. His short game has been excellent in recent starts and he ranks 6th in SG:Short over the last sixteen rounds.

Andrew Novak – Novak has been a steady cash game option over the last few months. He’s hitting over 68% of GIR and ranks 19th in proximity play this season. He ranks 27th among the field over the last sixteen rounds in SGTG. He was red hot a couple months ago when he had three straight Top-10 finishes and four Top-20s in five starts. While the big finishes have not been there lately, he has still made the cut in nine of his last ten starts overall and did finish 40th here last year in his first start at Colonial.

Mac Meissner – I hope Meissner stays under the radar this week. He feels like the type of play necessary in order to free up the funds to pay up for Scottie. He went to school at SMU and lives in Dallas now. He’s been playing really well the last couple of months, but has not gotten much attention for it. He has finished 26th or better in five of his last eight starts. Over the last sixteen rounds, he ranks 24th in SGTG and 9th in SGTOT. Even his two most recent missed cuts were not that bad as he shot -3 and -4 respectively.

 

GPP Player Pool

Core

Scottie Scheffler	13300
Collin Morikawa	11000
Brian Harman	9500
Harris English	9000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	8900
Keegan Bradley	8100
Thomas Detry	8000
Aaron Rai	7800
Mark Hubbard	7700
Lucas Glover	7500
Austin Eckroat	7500

 

Secondary

Billy Horschel	8800
Chris Kirk	8400
Sepp Straka	8300
Tom Kim	8200
Taylor Moore	7900
Davis Thompson	7600
Andrew Putnam	7400
Brendon Todd	7000
Robert Macintyre	7000
Sam Stevens	6800
Mac Meissner	5900

 

Tertiary

Lee Hodges	7200
Emiliano Grillo	7100
Christopher Gotterup	6900
Charley Hoffman	6600
Justin Lower	6400
Adam Svensson	6400
Andrew Novak	6300
Jorge Campillo	6200
Dylan Wu	6100
Kevin Tway	6100