The Daily Spin – Charles Schwab Challenge

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Charity

As we approach Memorial Day, I thought it would be nice to use this column to do a little bit of outreach if you good folks do not mind it too much. I am connected to some really incredible people from my military days and want to share a little bit about what they are doing to make the world a better place. If that’s not your thing, no problem, skip down to the preview below and be on with your week.

In any case, I have a couple of former classmates from the Air Force Academy who have really gone above and beyond to give back to the families that have made the ultimate sacrifice over the last 20 years. Matt & Micaela Brancato turned their home in Detroit Lakes, MN into a retreat center back in 2014 (they are both still active duty and serving in TN currently) as a place for the widows/widowers and family members of fallen veterans could come together each summer for a week long retreat where they can receive counseling, guidance and fellowship with fellow survivors. The experience provides survivors an opportunity to get away and spend time with those who have gone through similar tragedies, helping them through their healing process.

Each year they do fundraising in order to cover the costs for attendees as well as the cost for the kids to attend a local summer camp while their parent is away at the retreat. Here are two links to the website. The first is to the main home page where you can find a quick video of Matt & Micaela talking about their vision for the organization. It’s only about 6 minutes long, but it would mean so much to me if you would check it out. Even if you do not want to donate, Matt & Micaela are two of the best people that I know and I am always so inspired by them and their vision. The second link is if you are interested in making a donation. Whether you do or not, I really just wanted to share this organization as one to keep in mind over the years if you are ever in search of a great cause to donate to where you know the funds will be put to a great use.

Holbrook Farms – https://www.holbrookfarmsmn.com/

Donate – https://www.flipcause.com/secure/cause_pdetails/NzEyNg==

RECAP

That was certainly unexpected. There was never a chance that I was going to play Phil Mickelson last week and I am still stunned that he was able to rise to the occasion to win the PGA Championship. On a long course like Kiawah where there is trouble all over for players that get wild off the tee, I did not see the 199th ranked player in driving accuracy being able to keep the ball in play enough to contend, let alone win. We saw him flash a little bit of form at Quail Hollow a couple of weeks prior to the tournament, but that lasted all of one round before he shot +14 the rest of the way going from first round leader to 69th place. Maybe if I had paid a little more attention to the two starts that he had in Florida I might have seen something to work with, but he’s been so erratic this season that I just don’t think there would have been any chance to convince me that he was in play for the week.

The good news for the week was that I had a very easy week winning my cash games and even ended up profitable for GPP contests. Had I not gotten cute and built a single entry team that was different from my cash roster, it could have been even more lucrative, but I’ll take a win any way I can get it. Of my entire twelve man core, the only player that missed the cut was Xander Schauffele who played awful on the back nine holes on Friday and managed to miss the cut on the very last hole of the day.

Beyond that, it was a sweat free weekend. I started my roster with Hovland who was wildly popular for the week and he started off looking like he would get his first Top-10 finish at a major. Unfortunately, things came apart for him over the weekend and he finished 30th. Will Zalatoris played well for us again last week, though his ownership number was much lower than expected. He posted another Top-10 finish at a major, making him three for three at majors on the year and he continues to crush the toughest courses on tour in the toughest fields. Daniel Berger was the lone golfer that I would classify as a disappointment for the week. He jumped out of the gates going +5 over the first four holes and yet he did fight to salvage the cut on Friday before totally folding up over the weekend and finishing +10, good for a clutch 75th place finish. To his credit, he did get us a few extra points over the weekend so it was not a total loss, but even a decent performance from Berger would have seriously boosted my winnings for the week.

For my value plays, everyone showed up and outperformed for the week. Oosty was frustrating to watch on Saturday and Sunday as his putter went ice cold when the pressure hit, but I can’t really complain about a 2nd place finish from a golfer that only cost me $8k for the week. Louis is one of the top golfers on tour in the value range when it comes to performance. The best part is that he has the reputation for withdrawing often (even though it is pretty rare), so his ownership number always remains reasonable. Abraham Ancer looked as if he was going to go the same route as Daniel Berger after a terrible third round, but unlike Berger, Ancer showed incredible heart on Sunday and fired the best round of the tournament with a 65 on Sunday to finish -1 and a tie for 8th place. He keeps adding to a great run this year and you just have to wonder how long it will be before he starts to win some tournaments. Finally, I bit the bullet again and played Keegan Bradley in cash and once again did not get burned. He was in contention early, fell back in the third round, but mostly held his ground on Sunday on his way to a 17th place finish. It marked a rare moment where my tinkering did not hurt or help me as I swapped off Scheffler/Conners for Keegan/Zalatoris and the players finished in identical positions, with my swap gaining me an entire 2.5 DK points. I’ve been helped and hurt when tinkering over the years, but can’t remember the last time it ended up being neutral. All in all, a really solid week and I saw a lot of green screens from folks in the slack chat so hopefully, you were able to dodge the Xander bullet in cash and get to the right side of the screen for the week.

Course

Colonial Country Club in Forth Worth has been home to this tournament for many years. If you are confused about the name and think this is a new event, I am sure you are not alone. Last year, this was the Fort Worth Invitational. The two years prior to that, it was the Dean & DeLuca Invitational and from 2007 to 2015, it was known as the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial. While there have been many changes in the name over the years, Colonial is actually one of the longer tenured stops on tour as it has hosted a tournament every year going back to 1946. It is a classically designed course that plays at just over 7,200 yards and at a par of 70. There are two Par 5 holes, one of which is a scoring hole at 565 yards while the other is on the lengthy side at 635 yards meaning that there are not many easy birdie opportunities on the course. There are a good mix of Par 4 holes with six playing above 440 yards, but also four that play at 408 yards or less meaning that players will have to possess a well rounded approach game from both short to intermediate distances in order to contend which is evident when you look at recent winners over the years from Justin Rose, Kevin Kisner, Adam Scott, ZJ and Phil Mickelson and see that most of those names are excellent with their middle range irons. The fairways are narrow and tree lined so driver can be left in the bag much more often allowing players to focus on hitting the fairway in order to be well positioned for an approach shot as the bentgrass greens are on the small side making them more challenging than normal to hit and hold.

Course Comps

• Accordia
• East Lake
• Firestone
• Hamilton
• Innisbrook
• Old White
• TPC Potomac

Field

For the week following a major tournament, the field is surprisingly strong. Much of that probably has to do with the rich history of Colonial as it has been host to this event for decades and is a very popular course among the players. Though many of the Top-10 players in the world have opted to take the week off to prepare for the Memorial next week up in Ohio, we still have a lot of really talented ball strikers here this week and I am finding myself struggling to decide which players near the top that I want to include as there are so many that check the boxes that I am looking for at this event. Even the $7k and $8k range are loaded up with great value plays this week so that I am not having a difficult time in many of my initial lineup builds. Yes, there is some pricing pressure from the bottom pushing up some of the mid range players, but a few key names were left along in the $7k and even lower $6k range this week.

Weather

• https://www.windfinder.com/forecast/fort_worth

In looking at the weather for the week, there is some precip in the forecast for Thursday morning which should soften up the course. Gusty winds are expected all day on Thursday, but the morning looks a little lighter overall. On Friday, I have not seen the hour by hour look yet, but it looks like rain in the morning and potentially again by mid afternoon. I am not too comfortable making a weather call yet, but right now, the AM/PM might be the way to go to catch the lightest of the winds. I’ll try to post a better update on Wednesday when I get a little clearer look for the weekend.

Local Connections

• Jordan Spieth
• Ryan Palmer
• Carlos Ortiz
• Harry Higgs
• Kramer Hickok
• Scottie Scheffler
• Tom Hoge
• Doug Ghim
• Jhonattan Vegas
• Cameron Champ
• Abraham Ancer

Key Stats

Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 25%
Strokes Gained Putting: 25%
Birdie or Better Percentage: 20%
Driving Accuracy: 5%
Scrambling: 15%
Proximity: 10%

Sponsor

It is not easy to find people to work with in our niche space, but we found a food delivery service that took a chance on us so we are going to give it our best shot. The name of the company is ICON Meals. I have been eating meals from them over the last three months while on my new fitness program and it has really helped me to keep my diet in check. They have a signature menu that you can pick meals from or you can customize your meals on the site to hit specific macros (exact numbers of carbs, fat, protein). The calendar is really flexible for delivery and the meals are delivered to your doorstep vacuum sealed and packed in dry ice so they are never frozen. It has saved me a huge amount of preparation time and shopping trips and I’ve been able to lose about 12 pounds since using the service. In addition, if you use our link, we can give you a code for free shipping!! They deliver anywhere in US. In any case, if you have ever considered a meal delivery service, give these guys a try. You’ll enjoy the food and you’ll be helping us out. Even if you might only be a little bit interested, give the link below a click to help us generate a little traffic. Also, if you have any questions about the food, shoot me an e-mail and I’ll be happy to answer them.

Here is the link to the site – https://athlete.iconmeals.com/2696.html

At checkout, use code – SAVETIME  (free delivery)

 

Cash Game Strategy

Jordan Spieth	11200
Collin Morikawa	10500
Patrick Reed	10300
Daniel Berger	10000
Will Zalatoris	9900
Abraham Ancer	9700
Tony Finau	9600
Scottie Scheffler	9500
Corey Conners	9400
Joaquin Niemann	9300
Jason Kokrak	9000
Billy Horschel	8800
Charley Hoffman	8700
Brian Harman	8000
Brandt Snedeker	7900
Emiliano Grillo	7900
Ian Poulter	7700
Chris Kirk	7600
Talor Gooch	7300
Vincent Whaley	6200

 

Upper Tier

Jordan Spieth – Jordan will be right at home this week on a course that he knows all too well. He has not missed a cut here in eight starts and has a win and two second place finishes. He’s playing incredible golf since the beginning of February and if it were not for some early struggles with his putter last week, he would have been in contention again. I rarely pay up this high in cash, but even in his off years, Spieth has popped here for Top-10 finishes. With a cheap play in the low $6k range available this week, you can pay all the way up without hurting the rest of your roster.

Abraham Ancer – This course sets up perfectly for Ancer who is accurate off the tee, precise with his irons and has improved his putter tremendously over the last few years from when he first started on tour. He’s missed just two cuts this season while posting thirteen Top-25 finishes. He’s made the cut at Colonial in all three career starts including a 14th place finish last summer. He’s still looking for his first win on tour and this course seems to be a great spot for him to break through.

Corey Conners – It’s tough to imagine a course where Corey Conners is not a fit right now with the way he is striking the ball. Between his off the tee and approach game, he might be the best player on tour. If he had any type of short game abilities, he would be unstoppable. As it is, he’s made the cut in 20 of his last 21 starts with 14 Top-25 finishes and seven Top-10s. He’s made the cut in all three starts at Colonial with two of those resulting in a Top-20. He ranks 4th among this field over the last 24 rounds in SGTG and he’s on the positive side of SGP all season so he should continue to contend in nearly every event where he tees it up.

 

Middle Tier

Charley Hoffman – Over the last 24 rounds among this field, Charley Hoffman ranks 2nd in SGTG and 1st in SGTOT. He’s made ten straight cuts with eight Top-20 finishes. He’s missed only one cut at Colonial in his last nine starts with five Top-25 finishes. His irons have been amazing during this recent run and his short game has been much improved this year as he’s putting better than we’ve seen in recent years. He’s put up great numbers on both easy and challenging courses this season and plays his best golf in Texas so it is yet another opportunity for him to establish 2021 as Charley Hoffman SZN.

Brian Harman – Harman has played well this season and though he missed the cut by one shot at Kiawah last week, that is not really a course that I would anticipate fitting his game real well due to the extreme length. Back at Colonial, Harman should be much more comfortable again as he’s made the cut here in his last seven starts with five Top-25 finishes. He’s accurate off the tee and has the 2nd ranked short game over the last 24 rounds among this field so he should be able to keep his very solid season going this week.

Brandt Snedeker – After a tough start to the season, Sneds seems to have found his game again. He’s made five straight cuts with four of those resulting in Top-20 finishes. He’s had three Top-20 finishes in his last five starts at Colonial including a 2nd place finish back in 2015. He’s accurate off the tee and his irons have heated up significantly in recent starts where he ranks 23rd among this field over the last 16 rounds. His short game is always reliable and if he were in form all season, his number would likely be much lower.

Emiliano Grillo – Grillo missed the cut here last year, but that was after a three month layoff so I am not going to put a lot of stock into it. This should be the type of course where he would excel as he’s very accurate off the tee, has some of the best iron play on tour and is precise in terms of proximity play. He made the cut in his other four starts at Colonial with three Top-25 finishes. He’s had three recent Top-15 finishes in his last five starts and he’s actually been decent putting the ball over the last 24 rounds.

 

Lower Tier

Chris Kirk – Though he struggled at Kiawah, it is not the type of course where Kirk is a real match since he is one of the shorter players on tour off the tee. However, at Colonial, he’s a nice fit as he’s accurate off the tee, really good from mid range with his iron play and he’s been good all year with his short game. He won here back in 2015 and has not missed a cut here in the last decade. He’s had a nice season with eight Top-25 finishes and four Top-10s and it feels like he’s on his way to another win to cap off a great comeback season.

Talor Gooch – I am not in love with the lower $7k range this week. I think Gooch is the play, but Russell Knox has shown signs of life and if his game is on, he’s a better overall fit for the course based off of his accuracy and elite approach play. However, Gooch has been a steady cut maker throughout the year and has found his way to the weekend in ten of of his last twelve starts. Gooch ranks 8th among this field over the last 24 rounds in SGAPP and 23rd in SGTOT. He’s made the cut here in his last two starts so you could do much worse for the price.

Vincent Whaley – I’ll be making a Top-20 bet here as well, but this number is just a little too high for a golfer that has finished between 26th and 36th over his last seven starts. He’s played well off the tee, hits a high number of greens in regulation and his short game has been strong over the last couple of months. He seems to be in a period of ascension in his young career and it does not appear that the oddsmakers have caught on yet.

 

GPP

CORE – 25-40%

Jordan Spieth	11200
Will Zalatoris	9900
Abraham Ancer	9700
Corey Conners	9400
Joaquin Niemann	9300
Jason Kokrak	9000
Charley Hoffman	8700
Brian Harman	8000
Emiliano Grillo	7900
Brandt Snedeker	7900
Chris Kirk	7600
Vincent Whaley	6200

 

Will Zalatoris – I am not stopping with Zalatoris now after he delivered yet another Top-10 at a major, his third of the season. On the year, he’s made 17/19 cuts with thirteen Top-25 finishes and seven Top-10s. He’s one of the best ballstrikers on tour this season and about the only thing missing is a trophy to get him qualified for the FedEx Cup Playoffs. The putter is really the only area of concern, but on a tougher course where birdies do not come easy, this should be another course where he can contend.

Joaquin Niemann – Niemann has yet to miss a cut this season. He’s also been putting much better than in the early part of his career which has elevated him into contention much more often of late. He’s finished in the Top-25 in four of his last six starts and he’s never missed a cut at Colonial, including an 8th place finish here back in 2018 during his rookie season. He’s also better on bentgrass over other surfaces so that is a little extra bonus. On the course comp tool, Niemann ranks 4th in my model. Given the other big names around him, he could go a little overlooked this week.

Jason Kokrak – In twelve starts in 2021, Kokrak has yet to miss a cut with three Top-10 finishes. Earlier in the fall, he posted his first tour win. He’s been great in his tee to green game and is in the Top-10 in SGP. The only area he’s struggled is around the green, but he’s been hitting so many greens that it has not hurt him much this year. He finished 3rd here a year ago and should have a chance to improve upon that this year.

 

SECONDARY – 15-25%

Justin Rose	8900
Billy Horschel	8800
Ryan Palmer	8600
Kevin Streelman	8300
Matt Wallace	8200
Cameron Tringale	8100
Matt Jones	7800
Matt Kuchar	7600
Talor Gooch	7300
Russell Knox	7300

 

TERTIARY – 0-15%

Kevin Na	8400
Ian Poulter	7700
Peter Uihlein	7500
Harold Varner III	7400
Joel Dahmen	7400
Harry Higgs	7200
Rory Sabbatini	7100
Sepp Straka	7000
JT Poston	6900
Brian Stuard	6700
Michael Gligic	6100