The Daily Spin – Canadian Open

The Daily Spin – Canadian Open

RECAP

I did not like my chances of getting into the money on Thursday afternoon and going into the weekend, it looked like a 50/50 proposition on if I would get paid, but by late on Sunday afternoon, there was little sweat as Scottie guided me into the money after winning for the third time in for starts, putting on a clinic over the weekend in making just a single bogey over the final two rounds. Ben Griffin made a valiant effort right down to the end, but it only took a couple of small mistakes to give Scottie some breathing room to close out the tournament. We are witnessing greatness every time Scottie tees it up. Nobody plays better under pressure and I cannot remember the last time he had the lead in the final group where he gave it up. In fact, he almost always ends up increasing his margin of victory and most of those have come on really tough courses. It feels like he is on a path towards becoming one of the all-time greats after recording his 16th career win and yet, by age 28, Tiger Woods had already won 46 times which really puts things into perspective.

I was surprised that Scottie was ‘only’ 50% in cash games last week. It did not make a lot of sense to drop down to start your cash game roster last week, especially in a smaller field with a limited cut. Without Rory around, Scottie was the only real ‘lock’ near the top that was going to be in contention. He has seven straight Top-10 finishes so even when he is not at his best, he is still in contention. I cannot say the same for any other golfer that teed it up last week. Xander was the next closest to Scottie in terms of DK fantasy points of the golfers in the field over $9k and he was still outscored by 29.5 points. Plus, with Scottie being so heavily owned, if you fade him on a week where he wins, a massive number of people are getting those extra points, leaving them with room for error in the construction of their lineups while you likely need to be perfect and get a 6/6 to have any shot at getting into the money.

Once I decided to lock in Scottie, I went to the bottom portion of the board and worked my way back up. I knew that Bud Cauley was going to make my roster at his price so he got locked down immediately. He was fine before the weekend, but could not muster much over the final two rounds and finished 39th. I thought I would take my chances with CBez, one of the better cut makers on tougher courses over the last few years and a decent golfer at Muirfield, but like many other weeks this year, he faltered and missed the cut after blowing up badly on the first nine holes on Friday after a decent start on Thursday. He has six missed cuts already this year which is more than he had all of last year for the entire season. The other bargain bin golfer I selected was Max Greyserman. He is playing the way CBez used to play for us back in his glory days as a cash game staple. Max got off to a terrible start on Thursday in shooting a 76, but fought back to make the cut and worked his way back up to a 25th place finish which was very respectable. He is now 15/17 making the cut this season and though he rarely finishes anywhere near the Top-10, he is usually inexpensive and gets us four full rounds of scoring making him invaluable when we end up paying up for a high dollar golfer.

I had enough funds left over to afford two of my core value plays for the week in Keegan Bradley and Si Woo Kim. Keegan keeps on trekking this year and although he is running out of time to get himself into the Top-12 of the Ryder Cup standings (top six auto qualify, next six are captain picks), it does seem to be a helpful motivating factor as his results have been steady all year. He will likely need a win over the next couple of months to get the burst of points he needs to break into a spot where he could choose himself without being criticized, but he is posting solid results at tough courses and finished 7th over the weekend. Si Woo started off strong, had a poor round on Friday and never got back on track  over the weekend and though he finished 31st, he managed only 11 birdies for the entire tournament so his point total was not too impressive.

the Memorial Cash Game Roster – 357 DK Points

• Scottie Scheffler – 1st – 103.5
• Si Woo Kim – T31 – 50.5
• Keegan Bradley – T7 – 74.5
• CBez – mc – 17
• Bud Cauley – T39 – 53
• Max Greyserman – T25 – 58.5

Course

• TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley (North)
• Par 70
• 7,389 yard
• Bentgrass Greens w Poa Annua

The North Course at TPC Toronto hosts the Canadian Open this week. The course underwent renovations in 2023. It hosted the PGA Tour Americas’ Fortinet Cup Championship in September 2024. For that event, the course played as a 7,445-yard, Par 70, but will play at 7,389 yards this weekend. This course features tree-lined holes but offers a spacious feel, avoiding a tight design.

The Par 70 configuration is distinctive, with only two par-5s—the first and 18th holes. Players starting on the 1st face a birdie opportunity early but won’t see another par-5 until the final hole, while those beginning on the 10th play them back-to-back as their 9th and 10th holes.

The course presents significant challenges, particularly with its par-4s. The course features six par-4 holes between 481 to 530 yards which will favor those golfers that excel from mid to long range precision iron play.  Additionally, two lengthy par-3s—the 7th (237 yards) and 11th (225 yards)—should make this a much sterner test than what we have witnessed at this event over the years where scoring is usually not terribly difficult.

The course features sweeping doglegs leading to elevated greens, with fairways playing wider than what we have seen in recent months. Missing the fairway brings bunkers and short fescue into play, compounded by rough that is expected to be nearly four inches. The greens are about average in size (6500 sq ft) and are bentgrass with poa annua and not expected to play especially fast.

Course Comps

• Hamilton
• Memorial Park
• Muirfield Village
• Oak Hill
• Tahoe
• TPC Deere Run
• TPC River Highlands
• TPC Twin Cities

Field

For a tournament that is the week prior to the US Open, this field could be much worse. Rory skipped out on Jack last week to participate in this tournament and he joins Ludvig Aberg as the only two Top-10 players in the world to start this week. Eight of the Top-25, sixteen of the Top-50 and 43 of the Top-100 golfers in the world are in the field. The event is top heavy as the stars far outshine the value range so anyone daring enough to work with a balanced lineup should end up looking contrarian to most other rosters.

The one factor that comes into play for an event like this is how much motivation golfers will have to stick around if they start off slowly on Thursday. We have seen plenty of golfers hit the eject button the week prior to a major, enjoying a couple of rounds to stay sharp before getting out of town early in order to get an extra day or two in place at the venue for the following week at a major. While I would have a hard time thinking this would be the case for Rory given him skipping a signature event last week to be here, it is something to keep in mind when gauging the field in the leadup to a major tournament.

Weather

• Caledon Forecast – Wind & weather forecast Caledon – Windfinder

Nothing of note in my first look at the weather this week. There might be some light rain on Thursday, but nothing substantial. Winds look light on Thursday and Friday. I will look for a wind advantage over the next couple of days, but so far it does not look like anything will develop to give us an edge one way or another.

Canadians

• Nick Taylor
• Mackenzie Hughes
• Corey Conners
• Adam Hadwin
• Adam Svensson
• Taylor Pendrith
• Ben Silverman
• Matthew Anderson
• Roger Sloan
• Mike Weir
• Cougar Collins
• Ashton McCulloch

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained Tee to Green – 30%
• Strokes Gained Putting – 20%
• Birdie or Better Percentage – 20%
• Scrambling – 10%
• Proximity – 10%
• Prox 175-200 – 5%
• Over 200+ – 5%

Cash Game Plays

Top Tier

Rory McIlroy – This feels a lot like last week where Scottie was the obvious play for cash games. It is different in that there is a full cut this week so a little more risk, but that is offset by the much weaker field and the much cheaper salary for Rory at $11.9k vs $13.4k for Scottie. Rory obviously values this event as he skipped out on a signature event to be here. He is a two time winner at this event and even though it shifts courses, I think that a longer, tougher Par 70 layout should definitely favor him in this weaker field. He ranks at the top of every meaningful tool or rolling SG model and the golfers below him at the high end of the salary tier are not consistent enough with top finishes to deviate off of Rory for your cash game lineups in my opinion.

Corey Conners – There are other options besides Rory if you do decide to go a different direction. Corey Conners is in the middle of one of his better seasons on tour. He has Top-25 finishes in nine of his last ten starts with four Top-10s. He is Canadian so likely will not overlook this tournament and finished 6th, 20th and 6th over his last three starts at the Canadian Open. His rolling stats look sharp as he ranks 8th in SGTG and 5th in SGTOT over the last 24 rounds. His consistent play springs from his improvement on the greens this year as he is on the positive side of SGP, something that has not always been the case throughout his career. You get an $1800 discount from Rory if you drop to Conners, but does he finish near the top often enough to make this worth the trade off in cash games?

Shane Lowry – We like Lowry on long, tough courses. If you look back at where he has had some of his finest performance, you see a win at the 2019 Open Championship, 2015 at Firestone, 2nd at Oakmont in 2016 and a number of excellent finishes in Florida in challenging conditions. His irons play has led the way for him and he ranks first in the field over the last 24 rounds in SGAPP. If you look closer at his stats, much of this stems from his play between 175-225 yards, key metrics for what is in store for players this week. He ranks 2nd to Rory in my comp course model and I suspect that this being a more difficult iteration than previous years will play to his advantage.

Sam Burns – It is beginning to feel like Sam Burns is back on track after a slow start to 2025. He was not too competitive through his first ten starts or so this year, but has turned it on in his last five starts with four Top-20 finishes. I am nervous about Sam in that almost all of his success has been driven by his putter, but he is the top ranked putter on tour for all of 2025 so it is looking like more of something that we can depend on rather than a short term trend. He has two top-10 finishes in his last three starts in Canada. Despite the less than stellar rolling numbers relating to his iron play, he has improved in that area of late which is really all that he needed given how well he has been hitting his putts.

Keith Mitchell – Mitchell just barely missed the cut at the PGA Championship, but bounced back reasonably well at Colonial the following week. His form prior to that had been strong with five straight finished of 18th or better. He has played well in Canada in recent years with Top-10 finishes in two of his last three starts. His rolling numbers look good and the only area where he has struggled at all has been around the greens. His putter has been an asset as he ranks 17th in SGP over the last sixteen rounds. He ranks 15th on tour this season in Total Driving so this type of setup should be ideal for him as he can gain a lot of ground off the tee without finding a lot of trouble.

 

Middle Tier

Chris Gotterup – Is Gotterup a thing again? It feels like it, but for how long? Consistency has never been his thing so it does not feel great to put a lot of trust in him, but he is striking ball as well as anyone in the field over the last couple of months. After a very slow start to 2025, he has made the cut in 6/7 starts with five Top-20 finishes. He ranks first in the field in SGTG over the last sixteen rounds and 5th in SGTOT. He is a bomber that has started to hit more fairways during his recent turnaround and it has led to a ton of birdies giving him a great uptick in DK scoring. He tends to be at his best on courses that allow for more scoring so this could be another shot for a Top-20 finish.

Eric Cole – Cole is back to doing what he does best; playing every single week and making cuts. He has made nine straight cuts in singles play with six of those resulting in finishes of 28th or better. It is a longer course this week, but Cole has leveraged improved iron play to keep himself in front of the cut line and playing into the weekend. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks 6th in SGAPP and 20th in SGP. Even with some of these holes pushing him on distance, his short game should keep afloat.

Ryan Fox – Ryan Fox has been on a nice run in recent weeks, winning at Myrtle Beach and following it up with a 28th place finish at the PGA Championship and 20th last week at the Memorial. He ranks 6th in SGTG and 7th in SGTOT over the last sixteen rounds among the field. He finished 7th in this event last year and he rates as one of the highest value plays on our Odds vs Pricing tool this week.

Ryo Hisatsune – Ryo was inconsistent to start the year, but has since found his form making the cut in eight of his last nine starts with five Top-20 finishes. While he can be a little wild off the tee, he has really picked up his play in all other aspects and ranks 17th in SGTG and 12th in SGTOT over the last 24 rounds, a huge improvement over the first couple of months of 2025.

 

Lower Tier

Vince Whaley – Whaley has crawled his way back into being relevant this year over his last five start in making the cut in each event and finishing 26th or better in four of those starts. He is a bomber who suffered from severe accuracy issues at the start of the season, but has started to hit more fairways in recent weeks which has totally turned his game around. That is one of the keys that I think will make him successful on a longer course with more forgiving fairways. He is 3/3 making the cut at this tournament and although the data is limited, he has been very good on the bentgrass/poa green combo in his career.

Mark Hubbard – I love that I keep getting to write up the ultimate good guy, Mark Hubbard each week while he is on his cut making run. Each year, he finds the groove for a long stretch of time where he might go a couple of months without missing a cut or only one over several months. It feels like we may be embarking on such a stretch right now after a 12th place finish at Puntacana, 5th at the CJ Cup, 7th at Myrtle Beach and 28th at Colonial. I would not put a lot of stock into it, but he has also made the cut at this event in his last five starts with a 6th place finish two years ago as the highlight. He ranks 22nd in SGTG and 6th in SGTOT over the last sixteen rounds to go with decent comp course numbers in his career.

Emiliano Grillo – Say it with me: GREE-lo! It feels like the Emiliano we have gotten to know over the years is back. His tee to green game was broken early in the year, but his irons are heating up and he ranks 1st in SGAPP over the last sixteen rounds. I also like that his putter is on the plus side of SGP as this is an area that has tended to hurt him over the years. After a terrible first six starts of the year, he has looked good the last few months making the cut in seven of his last eight starts including four Top-25 finishes. In limited starts, he is 3/3 making the cut in Canada and his comp course numbers are strong as he has gained .685 strokes per round in 30 career starts.

Antoine Rozner – He has not been all that exciting to watch this year, but Rozner is getting the job done when it comes to making the cut. After missing the cut in his first start of the year back in January, he has gone on to make the cut in his next ten starts though he has only a single Top-25 to show for his efforts. I like how this course sets up for him. He is long off the tee and his accuracy issues should be muted by the more generous fairways. He is one of the best golfers on tour for long iron play, ranking 2nd between 175-200 yards and 16th for approach shots beyond 200 yards. If his short game is anything better than terrible, this should be a good chance for him to test the upside once making it to the weekend.

 

GPP Player Pool

Core

Rory McIlroy	11900
Corey Conners	10100
Shane Lowry	9900
Sam Burns	9300
Keith Mitchell	9100
Christopher Gotterup	8300
Eric Cole	8100
Ryan Fox	7700
Ryo Hisatsune	7600
Vince Whaley	7400
Mark Hubbard	7400
Emiliano Grillo	7100
Antoine Rozner	6900

 

Secondary

Robert Macintyre	9800
Matt Wallace	8000
Alex Smalley	7600
Cameron Young	7500
Tom Kim	7300
Patrick Rodgers	7200
Ricky Castillo	7200
Matt Kuchar	7100

 

Tertiary

Kevin Yu	7800
John Keefer	7800
Victor Perez	7000
Steven Fisk	7000
Kristoffer Ventura	6700
Brandt Snedeker	6700