The Daily Spin – BMW Championship

NFL

As most of you are well aware, the NFL season is right around the corner which means that Jeff and I are preparing to kickoff our fourth season with our site, Football Insider Edge! To say that the first three seasons were a big success would be a massive understatement as we’ve had a number of live finalists and many big GPP winners, including a millionaire maker winner last fall. If you enjoy our PGA content, then I can promise that you will love what we do with the NFL.

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Nick (our great DP World Tour writer) is also providing columns for the preseason this year so there is already action to be had when you are ready to get back into the mix now that the regular season is almost here!

 

RECAP

What a star-studded leaderboard for our first playoff event. With names like Sepp Straka, Trey Mullinax, Andrew Putnam, Brian Harman and Lucas Glover all hanging our up top, it looked like we were going to get an unlikely winner to kick things off. Fortunately, Willy Z came through in a big way for his first career win. It would have been heartbreaking to see him lose yet again in a playoff and it paid off big for Jeff as he had a nice five figure win after placing an outright on him to start the week and then midway through the tournament. While I did not get the outright, I had him solidly in my core and felt great about my analysis on him for the week as I am now good at dodging him at the birdie courses and then rally back to him on the courses that require a bit more touch. The only real pain last week had to be for his former caddie who he fired midway through the Wyndham Championship just a week ago.

For my primary roster last week, I ended up breaking my team up in two by accident. I went to revise my lineups for the week, but ended up only revising my $250 double up team. Fortunately, my mistake worked to my advantage as the team I swapped to did not pan out while my original team cashed. Both teams had Fitz, Burns, Im and Horschel. The difference was Kirk/CBez vs Taylor Moore/Tom Kim.

Billy Ho killed me for the week. He was an automatic play for my cash lineups as his salary was reasonable, his style of play worked for the course and obviously his history there was tremendous. He somehow managed to lose nearly three strokes off the tee on Friday to miss the cut by one stroke and was uncharacteristically bad with his putter, strange on Bermuda greens where he usually excels.

Chris Kirk was the other whiff for the week. He lost two strokes on approach and four more with his putter and was never really close to making the cut. He’s had a nice season, but this is not abnormal for him to flame out in random moments. This should knock down his ownership this week for when he bounces back for a Top-20 finish.

The rest of my plays worked out well. Fitz was my favorite cash game play and finished in 5th place. Given his tee to green improvements and strong play on Bermuda grass, he seemed like a lock for me. Sam Burns finished 20th for the week. He was on pace for a Top-5 finish going into the final round, but shot a 71 on Sunday to fall back a bit. His irons were great for the whole weekend, but he lost 2.5 strokes on the greens on Sunday which took him out of contention.

Sungjae continues to play great golf and locked in a 12th place finish. He led the field in SGOTT and though he was only average from tee to green, he was on the plus side with his putter. A slow start on Thursday kept him from being in the mix on Sunday, but it was a good start for his playoff run.

On my winning team, I made a punt play for Taylor Moore in order to get up to Tom Kim. Both golfers made the cut with Kim putting up a 13th place finish a week after winning at Sedgefield. He just continues to tear it up every week and he is not showing signs of slowing down. With his price rising to $9k this week, he’s not quite as attractive of a cash game play, but it seems like his talent may match those names before long. Taylor Moore gave me a 32nd place finish which was fine for his price. He’s been playing well over the last couple of months, but I did get a little nervous about using him which is why I ended up with a second lineup.

The other golfer that I used for the week was good old CBez. He’s usually good for making the cut, but does not always have the most upside which was definitely the case last week as he started out okay, but faded over the weekend, falling back to 64th place. It was still good for 66 DK points, only 7 points behind Sam Burns who finished in 20th place so by that standard it worked out okay.

Course

• Wilmington Country Club
• Par 71
• 7,534 Yard
• Bentgrass Greens

We have a brand new course to evaluate this week, but for whatever reason, the courses here seem to be very similar from one year to the next so they all tend to line up as comp courses where there is a ton of scoring. The only exception is Olympia Hills in 2020 which played a lot like a US Open style course. Every other year going back to 2015, the winning golfer has eclipsed the -20 mark. The course was designed by Robert Trent Jones in the 1950s, but a tornado in 2020 ripped up the course and took out a number of trees which left them scrambling to fix the course to get it ready for this event two years later. Though the course looks like it is on the long side, much of that is packed into two lengthy Par 5 holes that are well over 600 yards. This allowed for there to be five Par 4 holes that are under 430 yards which should yield plenty of scoring opportunities. Water comes into play on only four holes and without winds in play, should not pose too great of a threat. The fairways are tree lined, though it does not look particularly tight. Bunkers were added in the landing area which could create problems for poor tee shots. On approach, the bentgrass greens are some of the largest on tour this season. The greens have plenty of undulation and should play fast which might be the biggest defense of the course this week. Long iron and proximity play will be extremely important this week as hitting greens in regulation alone is not going to be enough to get the job done. While the course is new to the tour, I am still anticipating plenty of scoring this week in line with what this event has produced in recent years.

Comps Courses

• Aronimink
• Caves Valley
• Medinah
• Augusta
• Muirfield
• Shadow Creek
• Summerlin

Field

The Top-68 players left in the playoffs are here this week. Cam Smith withdrew on Monday with what is described as a hip injury. I am guessing that it is minor and he is looking to get some rest before the Tour Championship next week in what is likely his last event on the PGA Tour before departing for the LIV Tour after the President’s Cup. Tommy Fleetwood is also absent this week as he’s still taking time with his family. There is no cut this week so that should factor into your lineup builds. There are enough strong players even in the $6k range so that you can grab a couple of players on the low end and stack the rest of your team. It seems unlikely that a balanced lineup will be a winner this week so take some chances to load up.

With 4 times the normal FedEx Cup points available as a normal PGA event, a Top-5 finish can send a player roaring up the standings in a hurry. Will Zalatoris overtook Scottie Scheffler last week after his win despite Scottie winning four times this season. It is a no-cut event which does change the strategy again as this will play much the same way as a WGC event and with a similarly composed field. Since a payday is guaranteed, we really hope that the golfers we utilize start off strong as a poor opening round will make it tough to stay motivated to climb back into the tournament. A similarly interesting phenomenon can happen with players that have nearly locked in their place for next week. For those golfers, you may see them conserve a bit of energy if they are not in contention. They may fall a few slot in starting position next week, but the stroke penalty changes so little beyond the very top spots that it is not really that much of a consequence for them. The real battle takes place right around the Top-30 mark where players are on the bubble this week. That range from 25-35 is really interesting and those golfers will certainly fight all four rounds regardless of their position on Sunday (except obviously, Patrick Reed).  Here is what each player will receive in qualifying for The Tour Championship:

• Entry into three of the four major championships: The Masters, US Open and British Open Championship (and effectively entry into the PGA Championship)
• A minimum of $500,000 for finishing in 30th place in the Tour Championship
• Entry into the Arnold Palmer Invitational, RBC Heritage, The Players Championship, Charles Schwab Challenge, The Genesis Invitational, the Memorial Tournament

When you are rounding out your single entry lineup this week, check on some of those names just to see who is close. Having a golfer that is right around the line will keep them playing at a higher level of intensity through all four rounds (or at least it should), which will definitely be a tiebreaker for me as I am deliberating my player pool and cash game lineup for the week.

Weather

• Wilmington Forecast – Wind & weather Superforecast Wilmington Shellpot Creek – Windfinder 

The weather looks very nice this weekend. Temperatures should hit the mid 80s this weekend and there are no storms or rain in the forecast. There are no waves this week with only 70 players in the field so the tee times will be tight with everyone teeing off within a few hours. Also, without a cut, the weather is less of a factor than normal. Be sure to get a good check on the weather on Wednesday night, but it likely will not factor into my lineup builds this week.

Local Connections

• Denny McCarthy

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained Tee to Green – 25%
• Strokes Gained Putting – 25%
• Birdie or Better Percentage – 20%
• Proximity – 10%
• Par 5 Scoring – 10%
• Scrambling – 10%

 

Cash Game Plays

Rory McIlroy	10500
Jon Rahm	10300
Patrick Cantlay	9900
Tony Finau	9700
Xander Schauffele	9600
Matthew Fitzpatrick	9500
Sam Burns	9300
Sungjae Im	9100
Tom Kim	9000
Joaquin Niemann	8600
Corey Conners	8300
Tyrrell Hatton	8200
Aaron Wise	8100
Adam Scott	8000
Cameron Davis	7600
Taylor Pendrith	7400
Sahith Theegala	7300
JT Poston	7300
Taylor Moore	6400
Trey Mullinax	6200

 

Top Tier

Patrick Cantlay – Cantlay ranks as my #1 player in my comp course model this week, by a large amount. He’s excellent on bentgrass over other surfaces. He’s had four finishes of 12th or better in five starts at the BMW and seems to have the perfect style of play for these longer courses where there will be a lot of scoring. His short game has improved to the point where he is one of the best all around players on tour and he enters the week with three Top-10 finishes in his last four starts.

Tony Finau – It’s definitely not the time to get away from Tony Finau who followed up back to back wins with a 5th place finish in Memphis last week. He’s long off the tee, one of the best iron players on tour and his putter has been amazing over the last few months. On top of that, we are back on bentgrass this week where Tony plays his best golf. He ranks 4th on my comp course model this week and he’s been a killer at this event with five straight Top-15 finishes including four Top-10s.

Matt Fitzpatrick – Though we are not on Bermuda grass this week, it is less important than it once was for Fitz. He led the tour this season in SGTG so it is no longer his short game alone that carries him. He’s an excellent ball striker with ten Top-10 finishes this season including his first win on the PGA Tour at the US Open. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks 4th in SGTG and 3rd in SGTOT among the field.

Sungjae Im – Outside of a rough stretch at the US Open and in Scotland, Sungjae has been really strong going back to The Masters as the other eight starts were Top-25 finishes including four Top-10 finishes with two recent 2nd place finishes. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks 7th in SGTG and 4th in SGTOT among this field. What is even more encouraging is that his putter has picked up steam over his last three starts. In years where this event was held on courses with a lot of scoring, Sungjae has finishes of 11th and 3rd.

 

Middle Tier

Joaquin Niemann – Niemann lines up well this week for a nice effort. He’s a tee to green stud that can contend when his short game is on. Though his putter presents problems, he still ranks 16th in BoB% and 24th in Par 5 Scoring. He ranks 9th in my comp course model this week gaining over 1.1 strokes per round over sixteen career starts. He’s a slightly better putter on bentgrass so that gives me some hope this week.

Aaron Wise – Wise ranks 7th on my comp course model this week. He’s long off the tee, very strong with his long iron play and is a better bentgrass player than on other surfaces. In two starts at this event, he’s finished in the Top-20 both times. Though his putter has been up and down this season, he’s improved a lot over recent years and ranks 22nd on tour in Birdie or Better Percentage so he’s very capable of scoring a lot of birdies.

Adam Scott – Scott finished 5th last week and though he has not played as much as others this season, he does have four Top-10 finishes in eighteen starts. This is the style of course where he has had success in his career as his long irons have delivered him success on courses like Augusta and Riviera over the years. His putter has been good enough over the last few years so that he can keep up if there is a lot of scoring and over 42 career starts has gained just under a stroke per round on comp courses. He has five Top-25 finishes in his last seven starts at the BMW Championship.

 

Lower Tier

Cameron Davis – Cam Davis is one of my favorite plays this week for betting and DFS. He has five straight Top-16 finishes and looked strong last week in the first playoff event. Over the last sixteen round, he ranks 5th in SGTG and 11th in SGTOT among the field. On courses where there is a lot of trouble, I tend to stay away from Cam, but on a course where there are few defenses, Cam can shine. He’s also nearly a half stroke better on bentgrass courses over other surfaces.

Sahith Theegala – Theegala has been playing well since his 3rd place finish at the WMPO back in February. In fact, he has made the cut in 14 of his last 15 events with seven Top-25 finishes. He’s had success in limited starts on comp courses and I like him in events where there is not a lot of trouble for him to find off the tee as he’s not terribly accurate so keeping him away from tight tracks or bad weather has been a path to success.

Taylor Moore – The last two plays are total punts this week, but in an event without a cut, there is every reason to pay down, especially when we have golfers available in the low $6k range that have been playing really well. Moore has four Top-25 finishes in his last six starts and looked good last week finishing 32nd in Memphis. Over the last sixteen rounds, he ranks 11th among this field in SGTG.

Trey Mullinax – Just a few weeks ago, Mullinax was in a fight to keep his tour card. Even with his recent run, he still made the cut in less than half of his starts this season. That said, he’s looked great in his last four starts with a win, 21st, 37th and 5th place finish to push him to the cusp of potentially making the Tour Championship. Over the last 12 measured rounds, he ranks 9th in SGTG and 7th in SGTOT among the field. His irons have roared to life and his short game has been pretty good. He’s a little better on bentgrass than other surfaces so hopefully the magic can continue for one more week.

 

GPP Player Pool

Core

Rory McIlroy	10500
Jon Rahm	10300
Patrick Cantlay	9900
Tony Finau	9700
Matthew Fitzpatrick	9500
Sungjae Im	9100
Tyrrell Hatton	8200
Aaron Wise	8100
Adam Scott	8000
Cameron Davis	7600
Taylor Moore	6400
Trey Mullinax	6200

 

Secondary

Xander Schauffele	9600
Collin Morikawa	9400
Sam Burns	9300
Tom Kim	9000
Joaquin Niemann	8600
Corey Conners	8300
Taylor Pendrith	7400
Sahith Theegala	7300
JT Poston	7300
Keegan Bradley	7200
Harold Varner III	6900

 

Tertiary

Brian Harman	7700
Denny McCarthy	7000
Chris Kirk	6700
Scott Stallings	6600
Wyndham Clark	6500
Sebastian Munoz	6500
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	6400