The Daily Spin – Black Desert Championship

The Daily Spin – Black Desert Championship

RECAP

Sanderson Farms kicked off the fall season last week and it appears that the field is indicative of what we will see for much of the fall. I am curious to see if any of the stars come out for Las Vegas or Japan, but it looks like the stars will largely choose to rest throughout the fall months before emerging at the start of the 2025 season in January, allowing the younger players and those on the bubble to keep their tours cards competing over these last six events before the holiday break. It does give us some opportunities to have a small advantage over other owners in that our familiarity with rank and file player is much higher than the average DFS owner so there is some edge to be had. However, being that it is October and that we are now in the heart of the NFL season with the NBA and NHL starting soon, there is not near the interest in PGA right now which means that very few casual players are competing with us right now. My advice during the fall is to tighten up the strings on your bankroll, play a little more casually and take a lot of mental notes on the golfers that begin the excel. This should give you a little more of a boost in the winter months when the NFL season is winding down and the golf contests begin to pick up a little steam.

Things went about how I expected last week. I had a somewhat balanced lineup, paying up for Ben Griffin, but then mostly sticking to the middle of salary pack for the rest of my team. There are not a lot of attractive value plays available below $7k so unless the pricing changes dramatically in the next couple of weeks, this is likely the type of build that I will embrace this fall outside of Japan, which I believe is still a no cut event which should open things up a little more.

I had two golfers that missed the cut last week which killed my chances in cash games. Both were a surprise. Adam Svensson has been one of the more consistent cut makers on tour over the last 5 months or so and even though he has not been in contention much, getting to the weekend is really all you are looking for with him on your roster. He was unusually bad with his putter last week, losing over 4 strokes in just two rounds. That had been an area where he had been playing pretty well for much of the summer so it was irritating to see him miss so many makeable putts. Matt Kuchar also fell apart on Friday to miss the cut. He was -6 for the tournament and -4 in the second round through 12 holes and then managed a bogey and a triple bogey the rest of the way in to completely collapse and miss the cut. He played great golf for 30 holes and has been in good form of late so I am chalking it up to a simple loss of focus for one really awful hole which does happen from time to time. Overall, I am still likely to look his way in the fall as these are the types of courses where he can still find his way into contention and he does still have a little work to do in order to make sure he finishes inside of the Top-125 for 2024.

The rest of my team was middle of the road in making the cut. Ben Griffin was disappointing in only finishing 37th. This had been a great event for him and his pedigree on Bermuda greens is well known. Rico Hoey may be turning back into the player he was at the beginning of the season after a 68th place finish. You always need to be cautious of golfers like him who pop unexpectedly for a few weeks after being generally terrible for much of the year. It is not typical for a player like that to do a total 180 and then stay elite for an extended period of time. He did not miss the cut and really only had one bad round on Sunday, but it is worth watching to see if it is sustainable. Andrew Novak continued his run of decent play with a 23rd place finish. His tee to green game is fantastic right now and if he can tighten up his short game, he is the type of golfer that can win one of these weaker field events in the fall. Finally, Henrick Norlander continues to handle himself well at Jackson CC. It was not his normal elite finish there, but 28th for a golfer priced at 7500 is acceptable, especially given the lack of great option at that end of salary spectrum. We know he is a very streaky player so it likely will not be long before the wheels come off again and he falls back to fantasy irrelevance, but for now, he is cheap, he is making cuts and he does surprise to the upside every once in a while.

Course

• Black Desert Resort
• Par 71
• 7,371 Yards (reduce from 5-8% due to altitude)
• Bentgrass Greens

We have a new course on the docket this week out in southern Utah. I had hoped that our boy ‘Ruxin’ in the slack chat would be able to give us a full rundown of the property, but it appears that this is one of the few tracks in the state that he has not conquered yet. You see the numbers up top, but beware that this course is over 3000 feet above sea level so there is an altitude adjustment that will need to be made which takes our 7,300+ yard course and chops it down to just over 6,900 yards. It is also a resort course which means that it was not built to host the US Open. This is a spot for rich tourists to play so it seems likely that there should be plenty of scoring for the week. The course was designed by Tom Weiskopf and finished in 2023. There are two other courses that we see each year on tour that he also designed: TPC Scottsdale and Torrey Pines North Course. The fairways are mostly generous and the setup is similar to what we see on most desert style golf courses.

The one interesting difference is that the course is surrounded by a lava field which they had to blast through to put together the course. That link will give you a little tour of some of the more interesting facets of the course and its layout as well as a few nods to favorite holes that Weiskopf borrowed from in designing his final course before he passed away in 2022. I am most excited to see how the two drivable Par 4 holes play out this week. If you remember TPC Scottsdale, the 17th hole is one of my favorite holes that we see all year and never fails in delivering dramatic moments in the final round of the WMPO. The greens are large and bentgrass, a little unusual for an area where we usually see a lot of poa. While the greens are not difficult to hit, proximity will be more important this week than simply hitting a GIR. The only real issue that could cause trouble for players on this courses would be if the winds were up, but as you will see below, the forecast is perfect this week so there should not be as many golfers taking the scenic route off the tees.

Course Comps

• TPC Summerlin
• TPC Scottsdale
• TPC Twin Cities
• TPC Deere Run
• Shadow Creek
• Summit
• Liberty National
• TPC Craig Ranch

Field

The field is even worse than last week at Sanderson Farms. In fact, the highest rated player here is #41 Chris Kirk followed by #49 Lucas Glover. Only 21 of the Top-100 players in the world are in the field this week. It appears that the top players in the world have decided to sit out the fall portion of the season, though perhaps that will change when the tour hit Vegas next week or Japan the following week. It is pretty wild how close this field is to last week.

One thing to note is that the season is still going through the RSM next month. The Fortinet Championship was not the first tournament of a new season like normal so these players are still battling for position to keep their tour card and also for #51-60 who will gain entry into the first two elevated events of 2024. This should help to step up the intensity of the events over the next month.

Weather 

• Wind & weather forecast Ivins – Windfinder

No issues with weather this week. The winds look light for most of the weekend and nothing notable prior to the cut. Temperatures range from the mid 70s to mid 80s over the weekend. I will not be using any weather wave lineups this week.

Local Connections

• Patrick Fishburn
• Zac Blair

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained Tee to Green – 30%
• Birdie or Better Percentage – 20%
• Strokes Gained Putting – 20%
• Proximity – 10%
• Scrambling – 10%
• Par 5 Scoring – 10%

 

Cash Game Plays

Top Tier

Keith Mitchell – Once again, Killer Keith sits atop the salary charts this week and while I am tempted to simply ignore this range, the pricing is soft enough so that I ended up having plenty of room for him in my player pool. He should be able to handle this course with ease as he is long off the tee and one of the best iron players on tour this season ranking 6th in SGAPP, 7th in GIR% and 6th in Proximity. While his short game is usually a detriment to his play, of late it has been a strength as he ranks 14th in SG:Short over the last 16 rounds. He enters the week with three straight Top-12 finishes and solid comp course numbers having gained just over .7 strokes per round in 26 comp course starts.

Patrick Fishburn – Fishburn was born and lives in Ogden, UT and went to school at BYU. If you need a narrative to get excited about an otherwise not so thrilling event, Fishburn has plenty of motivation. However, being from Utah is a distant factor to consider when reviewing the rest of what Fishburn offers this week. He’s been playing some really strong golf going back to Corales Puntacana in April. He has eight Top-25 finishes since that tournament and three recent Top-6 finishes, including one at the 3M Open. Most of his big finishes have been at events where most folks likely were not paying much attention, but he has been good in all facets of his game. Over the last 24 rounds among this field, he ranks 9th in SGTG and 1st in SGTOT and he is heavily to the positive side in on our turf splits tool, though his rounds are limited.

Stephan Jaeger – Jaeger is always a great play when you need a cut maker at an event on a course that is not overly difficult. Am I going to line up to play him at PGA National, TPC Sawgrass or Augusta? Obviously no. As for everywhere else, he has been great the last two years. He had a 22 event streak without missing a cut that spanned most of 2023 and the first five events of 2024. He is not going to be in contention that often, but in a field where you need someone to make it to the weekend, he is one of the more dependable players that you can count on this week.

Lucas Glover – When Lucas Glover starts to putt well, that is your signal to get him into your player pool. He has always been an elite ball striker and his iron play has been outstanding all season. Last fall when he caught fire on the greens, he won back to back events. In his first two starts this fall, he has gained just over a stroke per round in eight rounds of play which has led to a 13th and 3rd place finish. When precision approach play and a capable putting stroke, Glover should be in go mode during the fall.

 

Middle Tier

Chan Kim – Kim is completing his first full season on the PGA Tour at 34 years-old and though it took some time, he seems to have gotten into a groove over the last couple of months. He’s made the cut in six of his last seven starts, finishing at least 33rd in every made cut. He ranks 1st among the field over the last 24 rounds in SGTG and 4th in SGTOT. Though he has only three comp course starts, he’s gained over 1.1 strokes per round on them. The only real area of weakness in his game is his putter, but this should but on these easier courses, it should be less of an issue and I expect him to be well positioned all weekend to score.

Harry Hall – The Englishman lives in Las Vegas and attended UNLV so he should be very comfortable both with the type of course and playing at a little bit of elevation. Not surprisingly, his comp course numbers are strong over nine starts as he’s gained just under a stroke per round in his career. He is also playing really strong golf right now after a win at the ISCO Championship in July. Over the last 16 rounds, he ranks 5th in SGTG and 1st in SGTOT as he has some of the best putting splits on bentgrass among the better players in the field.

Andrew Novak – If you remove his first three starts of 2024, Novak has been among the most consistent cut makers on tour, going 16/18 (including 13 of his last 14) with ten Top-25 finishes and four Top-10s to his credit. He’s made seven straight cuts at this point with five Top-25 finishes. What is most remarkable is that we have not seen his salary jump that much over the summer even with all the strong finishes. It is not surprising that when I consult our Odds vs Pricing tool this week that he is one of the most underpriced golfers at the upper end of the salary tiers this week. Over the last 24 rounds he ranks 8th in SGTG and 2nd in SGTOT. He is a lock for my cash game lineup this week.

 

Lower Tier

Justin Lower – Lower had a couple of tricky stretches in 2024, missing three of four cuts in March and then three in a row in May and the beginning of June, but outside of that, he played well throughout the year, making 19/25 cuts with six Top-25s. He is currently on an eight event streak of made cuts and started the fall with 7th and 28th place finishes. He has played some of his best golf on tour in the last couple of fall seasons and tends to thrive in these ‘lower’ field events. He ranks 10th in SGTOT over the last 24 rounds and yet his salary still places him squarely in the value range again this week. He is another easy pick for my cash lineup.

Patton Kizzire – Just when you think you can safely forget about Patton Kizzire, he finds a way to battle back to relevance as he did this fall with an improbable win at Silverado to kick off the fall. Usually you see a little falloff from a player after breaking such a long winless drought, but Kizzire went right back to work last week and finished 11th at Sanderson Farms. I have some faith in this run of play as his irons have been really strong which make his current play a little more sustainable than what I would normally give him credit for.

Daniel Berger – Berger claims that he is finally feeling healthy and having fun again playing golf. He was near the top of the leaderboard after the first two rounds and did not have a bogey through the first two rounds. He says that he has been playing regularly throughout the fall and in these recent weeks his body has felt better than at any other point of 2024. If that is really the case, then this is too low of a price for Berger. We know the level he is capable of playing at when he is healthy and at his best. In a field that is less than loaded, I am more ready to take a little extra risk on Berger given his upside potential.

Henrik Norlander – I was a little surprised to see Norlander’s salary drop to 7200 this week after finishing 28th last week at Sanderson Farms. He is certainly known for being a streaky player, but he has not been as up and down this year, making the cut in 12/16 starts and six of his last seven. He ranks 2nd in SGTG and 11th in SGTOT over the last 24 rounds and outside of his putter, all other areas look impressive. He will likely revert back to his usual form at some point soon, but I am willing to ride him for another week with the lack of value in the low $7k range.

 

GPP Player Pool

Core

Keith Mitchell	10600
Patrick Fishburn	9600
Stephan Jaeger	9300
Lucas Glover	9000
Chan Kim	8900
Harry Hall	8400
Andrew Novak	8100
Justin Lower	7800
Patton Kizzire	7700
Daniel Berger	7700
Henrik Norlander	7200

 

Secondary

Seamus Power	10300
Beau Hossler	10000
Adam Svensson	8200
Matthias Schmid	7900
Doug Ghim	7900
Mac Meissner	7800
Jacob Bridgeman	7600
Chandler Phillips	7600
Austin Smotherman	7100
Kevin Chappell	6700

 

Tertiary

Rico Hoey	7600
Alex Smalley	7500
Bud Cauley	7400
Ben Kohles	7300
Nick Hardy	7300
Trace Crowe	7100
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	7000