The Bullseye – The Open Championship

Last week’s Scottish Open was awesome to watch, since it was a great prep for the Open Championship this week. Scores were much lower than you’ll likely see at Carnoustie, including Brandon Stone’s 60 (-10) on Sunday to steal the win. He earned a spot in the Open, and many of the top names got their final links test in before heading to the year’s third major. Justin Rose and Rickie Fowler both played well last week at Gullane, and should be firmly in the mix at Carnoustie. Other Americans who played were Matt Kuchar, Peter Uihlein, Charley Hoffman, Luke List, and Kevin Chappell.

The Open Championship returns to Carnoustie for the first time in decade, where last time we saw Padraig Harrington outlast Sergio Garcia in a playoff. This was Sergio’s best chance to win a major up until that point, lipping out an 8-footer on the 72^nd hole which would have clinched the win. Carnoustie, nicknamed Car-nasty, is the toughest course currently on the rotation. It’s a 7,400 yard par-71 which features narrow landing zones, over 100 bunkers, and challenging green complexes. It’s major defense is also the wind, so keep an eye on the forecast over the next few days. Typically, this is the type of course where I’d favor accuracy and target some of the plodders, but I’m still a bit undecided. Stories from the course have given the impression that the rough isn’t too difficult (yet), and some of the top players are going to be able to blast a ton of drivers this week. Keep checking back throughout the week to see how that changes. In any event, hitting greens is critical, and scrambling when you miss is every more critical. You’re going to see the world-class ball-strikers (Paul Casey, Tommy Fleetwood, Sergio Garcia, Francesco Molinari, Henrik Stenson) have great chances this week, but you’ll also see some scramblers and grinders contend. I’ll get into some names below.

Links golf is all about patience, so trying to factor in mindset is going to be a part of my process this week. Also, I’m going to keep an eye on weather draws as mentioned, because sometimes the wind can give a 2, 3, or 4-shot advantage to one wave over another. Ball-striking and hitting greens will be my major keys this week, and I am definitely leaning towards links specialists and guys who have played one of the past few weeks in Europe. With the addition of European Tour strokes gained stats, we have some extra data to help us find guys who have been playing well of late. Statistically, here’s what I’m targeting at the Open Championship:

 

• Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green
• Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee
• Strokes Gained Approach
• Greens in Regulation

 

And now on to the picks!

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