The Bullseye – Rocco Forte Open

For this week’s European Tour preview, we head to Italy for the Rocco Forte Open. This was a new event and venue last season, so there isn’t much history to draw upon. But from my viewing last year, it’s a stunning layout alongside the Mediterranean Sea.

Vendura Golf Club was actually used before, for the 2012 Sicily Open won by Thorbjorn Olesen. His strengths are his distance off-the-tee and prowess on links-style courses, so that gives us an idea of what to target. Last year I favored accuracy, and was crushed when Alvaro Quiros and Zander Lombard went to a playoff. They’re two of the longest players on Tour. While I still think accuracy and elite iron play is important, this course is obviously wide open enough for bombers to capitalize. Both are in the field again this week. This course is a typical par-72 layout, measuring just over 7,300 yards. The obvious factor to consider this week is the unpredictable coastal wind, which could wreak havoc over the weekend. I’m going to lean more towards reliable cut makers than boom-or-bust bombers. Because this is a newer course for most players, I expect a fair amount of carnage. Not only will I tread lightly in my exposure on DraftKings and the outright betting market, but I’m going to stay away from the favorites in the field.

The field isn’t great this week, as the majority of Europe’s top players are at TPC Sawgrass. But we do have some known commodities, namely Andy Sullivan, Thorbjorn Olesen, and Eddie Pepperell. We need to take a long, hard look at players who are in good recent for, and some of the Italians playing on home soil. It feels like a week where one of the young guys could break through, and I’ll highlight some of those names below.

This is the only the fourth European Tour event where we’ve had reliable stats (albeit small sample sizes), so that adds another element to our edge. Unfortunately, this is a newer course for most players, so it may be difficult to predict what skills are most important. In any event, let’s revert back to our default: strokes gained approach and strokes gained off-the-tee.

• Strokes Gained Approach
• Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee
• Birdie Average
• Greens in Regulation

And now on to the picks!

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