The Bullseye – Open d’Italia

Well that was a horrible week for us! I was completely wrong about Wentworth, but that happens sometimes. It was great to see Francesco Molinari get the win that has eluded him, and now he gets to ride that high into his national open.

The Open d’Italia has soared in popularity this season, due to the placement on the schedule and the prize money up for grabs. We have Molinari, Tommy Fleetwood, Alex Noren, Tyrrell Hatton, Rafa Cabrera-Bello, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Ian Poulter headlining this week’s field. The course – Gardagolf – hasn’t been used on Tour in 15 years, so there isn’t much course history to draw upon. However, that event and the past few installments of this event should be good pointers towards where we should focus our attention. And the answer is hitting greens. Most Italian courses have similar characteristics: they’re narrow, tree-lined, and require a more strategic approach. Gardagolf is no different, and features tricky rough, and sloped greens. Several Italians grew up on the course and still call it their home venue: Matteo Manassero and Nino Bertasio. The course will be a hodge-podge of the 27 holes on site, and will measure 7,201 yards as a par-71. The extra par-4 on site usually means that bombers will be negated a bit, and that sentiment was echoed through some quotes by Manasserso:

“It’s a tricky course with quite a bit of undulation and a few slopes. They’re not easy to see on television, but there are plenty of tee shots that require you to take the slope into account. The greens are tiny and a few are steep, so the greens will be the main issue.”

Because this is a ball-striker’s course, I’m going to focus on consistency and accuracy. We tend to see a lot of the same names play well on these narrow, parkland courses, and this should be no exception. With the addition of European Tour strokes gained stats, we have some extra data to help us find guys who have been playing well of late. Statistically, here’s what I’m targeting at the Open d’Italia:

• Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green
• Strokes Gained Approach
• Greens in Regulation
• Birdie Average

And now on to the picks!

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